2023 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[Skinsinparadise]

 

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

5 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

 

I swear I was on an island here. But maybe now people will start to doubt Mayer as a can't miss 1st rounder.

 

He doesn't hit the athletic threshold mentioned here, combined with his small size and it's a big concern. His wingspan is 9th percentile, his arm length 7th, and his weight is 33rd.

 

I'm not sure how I'm viewing his tape as suspect when everyone else says it's flawless. I know I've been on the wrong side of tape evals plenty of times, so it's not like if I get this right I'm infallible or something. But he's not a clean prospect on tape, size, or athletically.

 

I like the TE class, I think there plenty of pretty good prospects. But 1st round, especially mid-1st seems rich for any of them. Especially with how difficult the transition to the NFL it often is for TE's.

[Barry.Randolphe]

Looking at those stats above....give me some Kuntz

[Koolblue13]

8 hours ago, AlvinWaltonIsMyBoy said:

Why you always talking about the Eagles? Serious character flaw, playa. 😆

 

7 hours ago, Jumbo said:

 

 

I also find Gibbs just as desirable and they both reminded me of Dawkins nickname "Weapon X" cuz they both could lay claim to that term imo.

 

7 hours ago, Bifflog said:

 

You mean to tell me endless Eagles lip-service isn't the content you come here for?

 

They're the class of the NFC east even Jumbo is doing it.

6 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

My comparison is they are a bit undersized and not killer athletes but productive.  But I didn't mean it anything more than that.

 

Herbig played mostly edge.  Pace is an off the ball LB.  

I've been high on Herbig all off season if we can't add a premium pass rusher.

4 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

The Cards are all "liar liar pants on fire" trying to get rid of those new uniforms.

[Skinsinparadise]

16 hours ago, KDawg said:

I had him second but now I have no idea and it feels like 16 is a risk. If he’s taken there I have to assume the Commanders did their homework and the character stuff was overblown. 

 

Me too exactly.  I've had Dawand 2nd on my list when I ranked them for quite some time.

 

But the character stuff -- especially the weight issues has me on pause.  At this point there is enough smoke to the fire that I expect him to perhaps to drop to to the 2nd.

Edited April 23, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Skinsinparadise]

10 hours ago, Always A Commander Never A Captain said:

 

I swear I was on an island here. But maybe now people will start to doubt Mayer as a can't miss 1st rounder.

 

He doesn't hit the athletic threshold mentioned here, combined with his small size and it's a big concern. His wingspan is 9th percentile, his arm length 7th, and his weight is 33rd.

 

I'm not sure how I'm viewing his tape as suspect when everyone else says it's flawless. I know I've been on the wrong side of tape evals plenty of times, so it's not like if I get this right I'm infallible or something. But he's not a clean prospect on tape, size, or athletically.

 

I like the TE class, I think there plenty of pretty good prospects. But 1st round, especially mid-1st seems rich for any of them. Especially with how difficult the transition to the NFL it often is for TE's.

 

He's an analytics guy but doees't have the definitve word.   Mayer feels like the Kyle Hamilton of this draft board last year both positive and negative.  Hamilton had big fans, me included though he was a grower for me.   And then some loud crittics who would say he's overrated.

 

Mayer is on a similar path.  He has some big fans, me @Going Commando, @KDawg and some loud critics who think he's way overrated, you included among those critics.  The draft is unpredictable.  Maybe the critics prevail this time.  No way to know until it unfolds.   I'd bet I am on the winning side of this one but I don't really care that much.  

 

I don't care that much, I think there is almost no shot we draft Mayer.  But if we did, I'll be ready to defend the pick just like did for the Dotson pick last year and would do it with even more enthusiasm.  

 

I do think he goes somewhere in the top 25.  McGinn's scouts have been the best predictaors of how the draft unfolds.  They reflect at least what some of the NFL teams are thinking.  They have Mayer as TE 1.

 

Heck even the king of anayltics, PFF has Mayer 19 on their board.

 

The variety with Mayer is you getting arguably the best run blocker, best red zone target, best contested catch TE in the group.  And there are numbers to back that point up -- its a reason why I gather PFF likes him.  As to using physicality to making contested catches and getting open with short space, he's sort of the Drake London version of this TE group -- London also had his critics last year here.  I get that style of player isn't everyone's cup of tea.   And look i am not saying you end up wrong about Mayer.  But I and I know some others feel good ebough about him to keep the chips on him and then revisit the argument later.  

 

As an athlete, he scored "good" on speed and "good" on explosion at the combine by metrics.  I don't think anyone pushing Mayer expected a great combine.  I would for example way before the combine almost always say the combine would likely knock Mayer to our pick or afterwards when some would say they doubt Mayer is available at 16.    I don't recall getting push back on that point -- seemed obvious. 

 

The one argument I do agree with those who use against Mayer is the draft is so good for TE does he have the be the one you take early?  There are so many good ones, it really depends on the flavor you want.  And sadly at the TE spot it often takes years to know.  I loved TJ Hockenson, but his rookie year, "meh".  It took him some time.   If I had to pick a TE who is likely to hit the ground running its Kincard if he can stay healthy.  The next one I'd pick if ts about purely who is good right away -- Laporta.

 

 

Edited April 23, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[KDawg]

Mayer is an excellent tight end prospect. I think people are missing what he is. He probably won’t ever be Kittle or Kelce receiving wise. Doesn’t mean he won’t be a good receiver, he will. But he won’t be a statistical monster necessarily. But whatever team he gets drafted to will have a fanbase that acknowledges and appreciates him every step of the way. 
 

He will be a very well rounded, solid tight end for years to come. He will make some splash plays. But he won’t likely be the entire focus of a defensive gameplan like Kelce.

 

That doesn’t mean he doesn’t have value, though. He has a lot of value. As a blocker/receiver he’s one of the most well rounded prospects to come out in a long time.

 

Washington is the biggest freak with an upside to be that dangerous receiver and blocker but more of a risk to hit the midline than Mayer. 
 

Kincaid has the receiver part of the package but not the blocking.

 

Musgrave is a curious case. Has everything you want except he has shown he is about as durable as gas station toilet paper. 
 

LaPorta is the other guy besides Mayer and Washington I am most intrigued by upside wise.

 

I think Mallory and Latu are the best cases to be middle of the road and appreciated for the duration of their career. 
 

And then there are guys like Kuntz who… who knows

[Koolblue13]

Mayer seems like the kind of player who is going to be one of the better, underappreciated type of role players on one of the better teams in the league, for the next 10-15 years.

 

I'd be very satisfied drafting him at 16. Not happy that we did it, at the time, but I'd defend it for a decade and I'm sure all but like two posters will be happy we drafted him at 16 when he retires. 

 

I have zero interest in a TE that doesn't block. I don't want another overstuffed slow WR that looks like Tarzan and plays like Jane grabbing more concussions than touchdowns.

 

I still think Bates has a higher ceiling than we've seen. I'm also still interested in that dude we drafted last year who's name I never remember but it isn't Cam.  

 

Mayer is the only guy I'd draft the first two days.

 

Day three I'll be elated if we can grab Hunter or Willis to play HB/FB. Then maybe I start to get excited about our offense.

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, KDawg said:

Mayer is an excellent tight end prospect. I think people are missing what he is. He probably won’t ever be Kittle or Kelce receiving wise. Doesn’t mean he won’t be a good receiver, he will. But he won’t be a statistical monster necessarily. But whatever team he gets drafted to will have a fanbase that acknowledges and appreciates him every step of the way. 
 

He will be a very well rounded, solid tight end for years to come. He will make some splash plays. But he won’t likely be the entire focus of a defensive gameplan like Kelce.

 

That doesn’t mean he doesn’t have value, though. He has a lot of value. As a blocker/receiver he’s one of the most well rounded prospects to come out in a long time.

 

Washington is the biggest freak with an upside to be that dangerous receiver and blocker but more of a risk to hit the midline than Mayer. 
 

Kincaid has the receiver part of the package but not the blocking.

 

Musgrave is a curious case. Has everything you want except he has shown he is about as durable as gas station toilet paper. 
 

LaPorta is the other guy besides Mayer and Washington I am most intrigued by upside wise.

 

I think Mallory and Latu are the best cases to be middle of the road and appreciated for the duration of their career. 
 

And then there are guys like Kuntz who… who knows

 

I agree with most of this.  Tough for me to categorize the TES

 

With Mayer, yeah he's an old school, do everything type of TE.  Different brand from most of the TE's in this class.    If I had to pick a TE the closest to him stylistically in this draft, I'd go Tucker Kraft.   Similar speed.  Kraft is more of a twitchy athlete (but not that twitchy) and better YAC guy.  Mayer is the better blocker, red zone target, contested catch guy.   Payne Durham would be the poor version of both but isn't as good of a blocker or athlete as either one.  So very poor man's version.

 

Kincaid, Laporta, Mallory -- in the bucket of F TEs, all are willing blockers so you can get away with playing them in line but their thing is to be move TEs.  Mallory is the poor man's version of the other 2.  But I really dig all three at different points in this draft.

 

Musgrave, Shoonmaker, Kuntz -- sort of lanky TEs with good catch radiuses and are really good athleties but not the most physical.  So so blockers.    I'd be intrigued with all three depending on where in the draft. 

 

Strange, Whyle -- H-Back types who can block.  Scrappy players with really good hands who make plays and can play in line because they are good blockers.  Davis Allen probably belongs here too.  His 40 time was bad.  But his 10 time was really good.  And his other measurables were really good so ended up with a high RAS score.  I'd be intrigued with all three depending on where in the draft.  I've liked Strange before it became cool with the draft media but I think its gotten over the top, cool now -- IMO the 2nd round for him is a bit rich but I see him pop there in recent mocks.  I used to say Strange is the most underrated among the 3rd tier TEs.  I can't say that anymore.  Now I'd say its Whyle. 

 

Latu is the one I struggle to classify.  He can seperate and he makes plays.  Supposedly smart dude who killed it in testing.  Ran only 4.78 and his 10 was I believe the worst in this whole class.  And it surprised me because he's not that big.   Not the most physical player, has one of the weaker YAC numbers and so so IMO at best as a blocker.  But I don't dislike him.  For me though he'd be below every player I listed here. 

Edited April 23, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Warhead36]

Mayer will be a good player in this league. Fringe top 8-10 ish TE. Get you about ~800 yards and 8 TDs a year with maybe the occasional 1000/10. Is that worth #16 overall? Not sure. I do really want a TE in this class though but would prefer one in round 3 or 4. I think Mayer is a fine pick after a trade down though.

[Koolblue13]

1 minute ago, Warhead36 said:

Mayer will be a good player in this league. Fringe top 8-10 ish TE. Get you about ~800 yards and 8 TDs a year with maybe the occasional 1000/10. Is that worth #16 overall? Not sure. I do really want a TE in this class though but would prefer one in round 3 or 4. I think Mayer is a fine pick after a trade down though.

He's a perfect example of how the good teams stay good. If you're drafting in the mid 20's you're probably around that range pretty often and you end up drafting guys like Mayer or Gibbs. JSM or QJ may go that late. O'Torrence, maybe JMS. Just great solid players but guys without top 10 stink on them. At 16 you still want to hit a home run and grab a slider from the top 10, so unless an Allen slides you end up swinging for the fences, instead of taking the reach.

[Warhead36]

3 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

He's a perfect example of how the good teams stay good. If you're drafting in the mid 20's you're probably around that range pretty often and you end up drafting guys like Mayer or Gibbs. JSM or QJ may go that late. O'Torrence, maybe JMS. Just great solid players but guys without top 10 stink on them. At 16 you still want to hit a home run and grab a slider from the top 10, so unless an Allen slides you end up swinging for the fences, instead of taking the reach.

We need to take a swing at more home run type talents. We have done well getting good players but the championship contenders have multiple guys on both sides of the ball that can take over a game with one or two huge plays. 

 

The home run swing for TE is probably Washington but man he's raw as heck and guys like him usually project to being good TE2s but not dominant TE1s. 

[Chump Bailey]

12 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

That'd be wild. I don't think any of these OL are worthy of a top 5 pick let alone trading up into the top 3.

 

Me either. I can only speculate it's Wright, Broderick, or Skoronski they are targeting. Wright won't get past us at 16 IMO. This is shaping up as one of the most intriguing drafts we've had in a while. 

[Warhead36]

2 minutes ago, Chump Bailey said:

 

Me either. I can only speculate it's Wright, Broderick, or Skoronski they are targeting. Wright won't get past us at 16 IMO. This is shaping up as one of the most intriguing drafts we've had in a while. 

Skoronski...man trading up into the top 3 for a guy who projects to be a G is just madness to me. Unless teams truly think he'll be a franchise LT but guys like him just can't play T in the big leagues.

[Koolblue13]

6 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

We need to take a swing at more home run type talents. We have done well getting good players but the championship contenders have multiple guys on both sides of the ball that can take over a game with one or two huge plays. 

 

The home run swing for TE is probably Washington but man he's raw as heck and guys like him usually project to being good TE2s but not dominant TE1s. 

We have some guys who are homeruns. Terry, Samuels and Dotson can all be. We finally have a QB, so that should be fun. I think Gibby could be and Robinson should be better, but a speedy scat back would be nice. We barely had a TE last year.

 

Imagine having Mayer out there. Now you have to protect the middle of the field and can't drop DBs deep to slow those three.

Just now, Warhead36 said:

Skoronski...man trading up into the top 3 for a guy who projects to be a G is just madness to me. Unless teams truly think he'll be a franchise LT but guys like him just can't play T in the big leagues.

Only an idiot franchise would draft a guard in the top 5.

[Warhead36]

Just now, Koolblue13 said:

We have some guys who are homeruns. Terry, Samuels and Dotson can all be. We finally have a QB, so that should be fun. I think Gibby could be and Robinson should be better, but a speedy scat back would be nice. We barely had a TE last year.

 

Imagine having Mayer out there. Now you have to protect the middle of the field and can't drop DBs deep to slow those three.

I agree with McLaurin but that's it. Samuel is a gadget player. Dotson had a good rookie year, I'm high on him, but we'll see. 

 

Gibson and Robinson are fine rotational backs at best. Neither are special, transcendent, dynamic talents. 

 

And the only one on our defense who might be that guy is Young but he certainly hasn't looked the part since 2020. Allen and Payne are great but DTs typically aren't complete game changers(Aaron Donald being the exception).

[Koolblue13]

3 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

I agree with McLaurin but that's it. Samuel is a gadget player. Dotson had a good rookie year, I'm high on him, but we'll see. 

 

Gibson and Robinson are fine rotational backs at best. Neither are special, transcendent, dynamic talents. 

 

And the only one on our defense who might be that guy is Young but he certainly hasn't looked the part since 2020. Allen and Payne are great but DTs typically aren't complete game changers(Aaron Donald being the exception).

Meh, maybe. I like the ceiling on a lot of our players. I think obvious glaring holes were a black hole for the other talent. Fill those holes and our talent can shine.

[Chump Bailey]

4 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Skoronski...man trading up into the top 3 for a guy who projects to be a G is just madness to me. Unless teams truly think he'll be a franchise LT but guys like him just can't play T in the big leagues.

 

We'll soon see  

[Skinsinparadise]

3 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

Mayer will be a good player in this league. Fringe top 8-10 ish TE. Get you about ~800 yards and 8 TDs a year with maybe the occasional 1000/10. Is that worth #16 overall? Not sure. I do really want a TE in this class though but would prefer one in round 3 or 4. I think Mayer is a fine pick after a trade down though.

 

Tough one for me.  My position has changed some.  I'll give one point to the say no to Mayer group.  I recall 3 arguments were made depending on the poster.

 

A.  He's not first round level good, doesn't deserve to be a first rounder, overrated player.

 

B.  First round TEs aren't the spot to take them -- the odds are better you will find a better one in the 3rd-4th, etc.

 

C. It's a deep draft for TE so why take one early.

 

Point A I still reject.  I've come around on point C.  I agree about that. The more I've watched these TEs.    As for point B -- I think its half right, half wrong.  The half right is no doubt some of the better TEs were found outside the first.  And the hit rate early at TE early is far from encouraging.  But some of that point is just about basic math and omits the operative point. If lets say you got a pool of 6 TEs drafted in the 3rd-4th round  -- sure one of those 6 might beat that 1 TE you take in the first.  But that's true of any position, granted maybe more so for TE but the point is still driven by -- bigger pool of players increases the odds.  Just like the same argument for trading down -- more players increases the odds that you get more hits.   

 

And you can't obviously take EVERY TE in the 3rd-4th round -- you are likely only picking 1.  So which 1?  If you pick any TE in the 3rd round are they really more likely to beat any TE taken in the first?  I don't think so.  So its about picking the right one.  I threw that out here, asked for people to pick the one TE picked later who will beat the one taken earliest and if I recall the only one who played along was @Est.1974 who picked Kuntz.   The way @Est.1974 played the point is perfect IMO -- pick the dude and see if that one is better.  

 

For me.   I'll take Mayer out of the conversation and focus on others.

 

Late first early 2nd round:   Kincaid, Washington.  I'd be thrilled with either one for different reasons.  Kincaid hands are special.  Washington is a freak with killer 2nd level blocks. 

 

Mid 2nd-late 2nd:  Laporta.  I'd love it.  High floor player.  Physical YAC guy, good seperator.

 

Late 2nd-early 3rd:  Musgrave, Kraft.  Also dig.  Musgrave IMO has some boom-bust but has freakish speed for his size and seperates well. Inconsistent.  Kraft to me has a higher floor than Musgrave but lower ceiling.  Y-TE -- can block, good YAC guy.

 

Late third-4th.   Strange, Shoonmaker.  Also like.  Strange gets open in the flat so seamlessly and can block.  Shoonmaker IMO is a high floor player -- seperates -- good speed, good catch radius, so so blocker.

 

5th-6th.  Whyle-Mallory-Kuntz.  Also like.  Mallory IMO high intangibles, good seperator, fastest TE in this class.  Whyle has good hands, good blocker.  Kuntz has freakish athleticism, high upside, seems like a good dude from what I've read.  

 

6th -- Davis Allen -- not exciting but makes plays, decent blocker.  Maybe Blake Whiteheart who am watching this morning.  Maybe Latu.

 

There are a lot of players who intrigue me at TE.  The TE group and Edge group -- I got too many draft man crushes.    After those spots its CB-RB for me. 

Edited April 23, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[RWJ]

4 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

He's an analytics guy but doees't have the definitve word.   Mayer feels like the Kyle Hamilton of this draft board last year both positive and negative.  Hamilton had big fans, me included though he was a grower for me.   And then some loud crittics who would say he's overrated.

 

Mayer is on a similar path.  

Couldn't agree more.  LaPorta in the 2nd should be the guy.  I've watched a lot of film too.  

So many threads about teams trading up mostly and teams trading down. I think we fit the later and we have our eyes on like RR said in a podcast, "BPA at an area of need".  That sums it up for me with a sprinkle of a trade down tossed in first before we select that type of player.  

[Skinsinparadise]

35 minutes ago, RWJ said:

Couldn't agree more.  LaPorta in the 2nd should be the guy.  I've watched a lot of film too.  

So many threads about teams trading up mostly and teams trading down. I think we fit the later and we have our eyes on like RR said in a podcast, "BPA at an area of need".  That sums it up for me with a sprinkle of a trade down tossed in first before we select that type of player.  

 

I've liked Laporta, for a long time, pre-draft media hype -- players like that who I feel vested in i tend to really root for them to take.  So i get the thought.  Looking at your draft list, the final one.  There are four players who are on that list who fit that category for me:   Wright, Laporta, Pace, Haener.  Haener goes way back for me to the previous draft season. 

 

But still, tough for me to just focus on one player in every round the way you do with your wish list.  For me I got too many guys to focus too much on one.   Who I like at what spot depends on who is on the board.  I like Laporta in theory in the 2nd.  But if lets say Kincaid is on the board at 47, J. Gibbs, or someone else I dig even more I wouldn't love the pick, even though I really like the player.    Also just one player per round -- I'd bound to be dissappointed , what are the odds it plays out like that?

 

Edited April 23, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[bowhunter]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

 

Late first early 2nd round:   Kincaid, Washington.  I'd be thrilled with either one for different reasons.  Kincaid hands are special.  Washington is a freak with killer 2nd level blocks. 

 

 

 

5th-6th.  Whyle-Mallory-Kuntz.  Also like.  Mallory IMO high intangibles, good seperator, fastest TE in this class.  Whyle has good hands, good blocker.  Kuntz has freakish athleticism, high upside, seems like a good dude from what I've read.  

 

 

If Washington is still one the board at the end of Day 1, I'd be blowing up someones phone Thursday night. Especially if we've already picked up a LT. I doubt Washington will drop as far as 47, but I like him a lot. (Kuntz would be a good consolation prize if we spend 47 on a ILB or CB)

[RWJ]

12 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I've liked Laporta, for a long time, pre-draft media hype -- players like that who I feel vested in i tend to really root for them to take.  So i get the thought.  Looking at your draft list, the final one.  There are four players who are on that list who fit that category for me:   Wright, Laporta, Pace, Haener.  Haener goes way back for me to the previous draft season. 

 

But still, tough for me to just focus on one player in every round the way you do with your wish list.  For me I got too many guys to focus too much on one.   Who I like at what spot depends on who is on the board.  I like Laporta in theory in the 2nd.  But if lets say Kincaid is on the board at 47, J. Gibbs, or someone else I dig even more I wouldn't love the pick, even though I really like the player.    Also just one player per round -- I'd bound to be dissappointed , what are the odds it plays out like that?

 

So true but I could give a 1b, 2b, etc. .  I probably should but as you have said there are many.  I could come up with multiple wishlist with players moved around in different order and I know you get it.  Can't wait for Thur., Fri., Saturday and Sunday too (i.e., Saturday night and Sunday for UDFAs signings).  They are as fun as the actual draft to me. . Christmas in April is what the draft is for me and when it's all over it takes some time to get over the hype we build up to for those days.  

[Skinsinparadise]

Blake Whiteheart. TE, Wake Forest.  6 '4, 247.  Watched 3 games.  7th round-UDFA

 

In short -- good pass blocker.  decent run blocker.  But he doesn't have a big frame and isn't a punisher type of blocker.

 

They used him in the games I watched to block, almost as much as Georgia used Danrell Washington to block.  they left him one on one a bunch of times versus KJ Henry who is a decent pass rusher and he handled him fine. 

 

He has good hands and a good catch radius.  PFF had his drop rate at 0%.  I wondered if it was a typo but in the games I watched he didn't have a drop.   24 catches for just under 300 yards, 3 TDs.  12.3 YPC. 

 

His weaknesses IMO are he is below average at seperating.  He's a decent athlete but he didn't stretch the field in the games I watched.  And isn't a YAC guy.

 

But good, not great pass blocker, mirrors well, never seems to blow an assignment from what i can tell.  But because he's not a punisher of a blocker and much of a seperator, I think he falls to the 7th or is a UDFA.  But I can see him as lets say a 3rd TE on some rosters mainly because Wake Forest used him as their 6th blocker in pass protection a lot and he handled himself well IMO.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited April 23, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Chump Bailey]

Although he's an older prospect, I think Schoonmaker could be one of the best values in the draft. I'm with you all concerning LaPorta. He's going to be a good one.