2023 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[KDawg]

I’m more okay with Henry in Philly than Gibbs or Bijan. So I’m with a lot of you. 
 

Gibbs is my biggest fear on a team other than Washington. Bijan is a close second. No other skill players scare me as much as those two. 
 

I don’t see why a team wouldn’t take either in the first. Yea, they are RBs. But they are the biggest weapons in this class.

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

[AlvinWaltonIsMyBoy]

39 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

I haven't either, but AJ Brown tweeted that it was legit. All three have the same agent and are friends, so it seems pretty legit.

Why you always talking about the Eagles? Serious character flaw, playa. 😆

[Skinsinparadise]

I put up the top YAC and speed numbers for the TEs based on the anayitics theories of the value of YAC and speed for that position.

 

Obviously context is king for all of those players on multiple fronts, including some have major larger sample sizes and they were used in different ways by their tams that can influence said stats.  That's why I like using analytics to complement watching players but not as the main event.  But still it showcases how good of a class this is.  

 

Most who have covered the draft for years, agree that this TE class is special.  And I get the sense that Bieniemy has changed their mindset about what they have in house-what they should do in the draft at that spot -- judging by Keim who started the draft process suggesting they might not chase a TE in this draft to now suggesting the opposite and it may be as high as the 2nd round.

 

I like Logan Paulsen a lot.  But heck i am not always going to agree with anyone about everything.  And I get the point he's harped on over time which is they have young TEs with traits so bet on that.  But I noticed even Logan has backed off the idea of not taking one.  

 

Heck Sammy Reyes, with his 10 RAS, felt exciting trait wise.  And I don't mind them betting on raw TEs with traits.  But IMO you want to put more in your basket than that.  Armani Rogers has 5 catches in his college and pro career combined.  He's not 21.  He's 25 and will be 26 during the season. And he got banged up last season.  Cole Turner was one of my favorite mid rounder TEs in the last draft and was jazzed they drafted him.  But he also got banged up and didn't play.

 

IMO they'd be nuts to skip the TE spot in this draft.  And I am glad that I get the sense that they won't skip it.  And if Bieiniemy changed their tune on this as i suspect, then its a good head start for him in my book.

 

Heck I can argue TE's 8-12 which would include TEs like Shoonmaker and Whyle, guys I like but don't love might be able to supplant Logan Thomas.  I get that TE is a wildcard spot and with a big bust rate.  But IMO there are too many good TEs in the class to skip it.  And heck guys like Rogers who have very little TE experience aren't exactly sure fire bets either. 

 

 

Edited April 22, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[actorguy1]

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

When I hear Keim mentioned they want a pass rusher, doesn't have to be a DE.  Feels like they are open to a pass rushing LB -- or tweener type who typically might be considered more of a 3-4 LB.  Heck they play so many 5 man fronts -- they can easily mix and match on that front and use a tweener type coming from the edge but can hold up against the run,

 

It brings me back to Nick Herbig again.  I haven't thought about him in a awhile.  He's probaby there is the late 3rd-4th round.    

 

He's to me sort of like the Ivan Pace of the edge class.  That is, he's a bit undersized, short arms -- and is a decent but not a special athlete yet he just makes plays-produces.

 

And he is decent against the run.  Seems comfortable in coverage.  You can use him as a chess piece.  He's sort of a poor man's Nolan Smith -- different kind of player but works in the same type of role.  It wouldn't surprise me if that's who they draft. 

 

My one pause is the dude loves Spam.  Forgetting the culinary debate -- that doesn't come off as a dude who is health conscious. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited April 22, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Bifflog]

45 minutes ago, AlvinWaltonIsMyBoy said:

Why you always talking about the Eagles? Serious character flaw, playa. 😆

 

You mean to tell me endless Eagles lip-service isn't the content you come here for?

 

[Skinsinparadise]

I'll give them this either they have the league fooled about Hooker or have Keim fooled -- either way I am impressed for different reasons. . But I'll bet against the league versus betting against Keim.

 

Don't get me wrong, Keim does say they do like Hooker -- but he's hardcore on the idea that it would not be in the first round.

 

Having said that, there is time for him to change his tune on what he hears -- I believe he has two more podcasts to go before the draft

 

NFL draft 2023: Latest rumors, news and prospect risers

What is Bijan Robinson's expected draft range?

Miller: I'd say the highest spot the Texas running back could go is the Atlanta Falcons at No. 8 overall. Atlanta loves the power run game, and while Tyler Allgeier rushed for 1,035 yards as a fifth-round rookie, he added only three scores and wasn't a factor in the passing game. Robinson would give Atlanta a featured back and let Allgeier factor in as a short-yardage back. The lowest I could see Robinson going? That would be No. 31 overall to the Philadelphia Eagles. If teams stick to the "no running backs in the first round" mantra, he could fall right into the NFC champ's lap.

Reid: Every scout I've spoken with says there's no way that Robinson -- a consensus top-five prospect who plays a devalued position -- makes it outside the top 20. But an NFL exec says, "He's special but not worth the investment. Look at all of the teams that signed running backs to second contracts. It's not pretty and many never ever see the end of the deal."

I agree with Matt on Robinson's ceiling. If there's a team that doesn't worry about positional value and sticks to "best player available," it's Atlanta. But I don't think Robinson gets past the Los Angeles Chargers at No. 21 overall. With Austin Ekeler recently requesting a trade, the Chargers lack playmakers at running back. Adding Robinson would give the Justin Herbert-led offense a huge boost in multiple areas.

 

---

One week out, which prospect are you much higher on than the current consensus?

Reid: Deonte Banks, CB, Maryland (No. 14 overall). I saw Banks up close on the road scouting last season and he seemingly got better each game he played. At 6 feet and 197 pounds, he's a physical corner who can be a fit in a man-to-man scheme, but he also has the instincts and fluidity to work in a zone defense. His performance against Ohio State sticks out the most to me. Banks got beat down the sideline early in the game by Marvin Harrison Jr. but was outstanding for the rest of the contest. His game is similar to that of Ravens cornerback Marlon Humphrey, and I think he's just scraping the surface of his potential. Banks has the size, quickness and technique to quickly become a key part of an NFL team's defense.

 

Let's play matchmaker! What is a pick that simply has to happen?

Miller: Darnell Wright to the Pittsburgh Steelers at No. 17 overall. The Steelers haven't invested early-round picks in the offensive line and it's showing. Right tackle is at the top of my needs list for them. Tennessee's Wright, the best right tackle in the class, fits Pittsburgh perfectly with his toughness in the run game and mobility to protect the quarterback in passing situations.

Reid: Devon Witherspoon to the Detroit Lions at No. 6 overall. GM Brad Holmes and coach Dan Campbell instilled a toughness factor in this team and they've added a bunch of players who plays with passion. That fits with Witherspoon, who plays the game with a chip on his shoulder. He is without question the most physical cornerback in the class, and the Lions still need help at the position. So the Illinois product makes a lot of sense as an addition to an already impressive young core.

 

---

Pick one recent draft trend and predict whether it will or will not continue in 2023.

Reid: No team has used more early draft picks on cornerbacks in recent years than the Minnesota Vikings; they've selected six in the first two rounds over the past 10 years. And I think Minnesota could add another to the total since cornerback is arguably the team's top need. With Brian Flores now the defensive coordinator, the Vikings could potentially be eyeing players who thrive in man coverage, and Maryland's Deonte Banks and Penn State's Joey Porter Jr. are first-round prospects who fit that new scheme and might be there at No. 23. Minnesota is currently without a second-round pick, so Day 1 could be the move.

 

 

Miller: It's a well-documented fact that the Green Bay Packers have not drafted a wide receiver in the first round since Javon Walker in 2002. And while many are projecting the Packers will finally use a premium pick on a pass-catcher to support young quarterback Jordan Love (assuming Aaron Rodgers is traded), I don't see it happening this year either. At least not a wide receiver. I'd instead look for them to add a tight end -- maybe Utah's Dalton Kincaid -- in the first round at No. 15 overall, with wide receiver once again being addressed later in the draft.

 

...Reid: Two prospects keep coming up when talking with league sources as potential picks at the end of Round 1: Kansas State cornerback Julius Brents and TCU interior blocker Steve Avila. The NFL is a copycat league and the immediate success of Tariq Woolen has significantly helped Brents. Even though he's not as fast in a straight line as Woolen, Brents has a lot of similar qualities as a prospect, including a lot of explosion and a deep toolbox. With Avila, the lack of consistent options on the interior and a strong showing at the Senior Bowl helped boost his stock. I've heard that Dallas and New Orleans are two teams to keep an eye on with Avila.

 

...Miller: Is the "Hendon Hooker in Round 1" talk real? Yes, according to multiple scouts I spoke with this week. One league source even threw out a prediction: The Washington Commanders could take the Tennessee signal-caller at No. 16 overall.

Edited April 22, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Jumbo]

1 hour ago, KDawg said:

I’m more okay with Henry in Philly than Gibbs or Bijan. So I’m with a lot of you. 
 

Gibbs is my biggest fear on a team other than Washington. Bijan is a close second. No other skill players scare me as much as those two. 
 

I don’t see why a team wouldn’t take either in the first. Yea, they are RBs. But they are the biggest weapons in this class.

 

 

I also find Gibbs just as desirable and they both reminded me of Dawkins nickname "Weapon X" cuz they both could lay claim to that term imo.

[DWinzit]

51 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

He's to me sort of like the Ivan Pace of the edge class.  That is, he's a bit undersized, short arms -- and is a decent but not a special athlete yet he just makes plays-produces.

 

My one pause is the dude loves Spam.  Forgetting the culinary debate -- that doesn't come off as a dude who is health conscious. 

Good breakdown. Spam liker, now that's almost as bad as @Koolblue13s longstanding Philly crush.

 

The main difference between Pace and Herbig mainly amounts to H is 4 inches bigger and Pace is a better tackler, works through blockers better and had incredible instinct.

[actorguy1]

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

26 minutes ago, DWinzit said:

Good breakdown. Spam liker, now that's almost as bad as @Koolblue13s longstanding Philly crush.

 

The main difference between Pace and Herbig mainly amounts to H is 4 inches bigger and Pace is a better tackler, works through blockers better and had incredible instinct.

 

My comparison is they are a bit undersized and not killer athletes but productive.  But I didn't mean it anything more than that.

 

Herbig played mostly edge.  Pace is an off the ball LB.  

Edited April 22, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Rex Tomb]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

H is 4 inches bigger

[The Rook]

22 hours ago, RWJ said:

Actually, 60 points shy of what Balt. needs to give up for the pick via:  Draft Pick Trade Value Chart | Pro-Football-Reference.com.  Now, if Baltimore throws in their 5th, good to go.  

 

I was using the Rich Hill Model instead of the Jimmy Johnson Model.

 

https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart-Rich-Hill.asp

 

To each their own.  And these are just reference point models.

 

 

 

The Rook

 

[Skinsinparadise]

11 minutes ago, Rex Tomb said:

 

lol, I am regretting making that point. 

 

Didn't expect all the confusion so I did a bad job clearly communicating the point so its on me.     They play different postions but clearly I needed to state that. 

 

Herbig for an edge -- is smaller than the typical edge. 

 

Pace for a LB is smaller than the typical LB

 

Hence I compared them apples to apples to how they fit to their position not versus each other. 

 

I am aware as anyone about the actual sizes and measurements of these players.

 

 

Edited April 22, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Rex Tomb]

10 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

I am aware as anyone about the actual sizes and measurements of these players.

[Skinsinparadise]

 

[The Rook]

8 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

I touted Evan Hull as a late round RB possibility -- I think I might like Travis Dye even more if he's healthy.

 

Travis Dye, 5 '10, 214.   He get just about zero hype.  Over 1000 yards of receiving in his career -- hands catcher and catches the ball in stride. 

 

As a runner, averaged 6 YPA in his career.  30 TDs.   Missed a chunk of last season from a bad fracture.  Still ran for almost 900 years.

 

I watched 2 games.  He's a fun watch.  He hits the hole fast and get skinny.  He's not a straight line runner like lets say Chase Brown.  He's more in that Bigsby-Spears variety, zigs and zags with some stop-go, quick cuts, change of direction.   He doesn't have breakaway speed or look especially powerful -- his superpowers are IMO -- vision, elusivenss, patience, contact balance.

 

In general, I like the lower center gravity RBs everything being equal -- like him. They seem to have good contact balance. 

 

Modern day RB in that he has really good hands.   They lined him up as a receiver on a play in one of the games I watched.  Comes off very natural in the passing game. 

 

I think his age, 24, and coming off that injury (he's supposedly fine now) drops him to the 7th or he's a UDFA.  He'd be a good get.  i mentioned liking Jarrett Patterson before that draft as a late draft type -- UDFA.  And was happy with that signing.  Dye IMO is a better player than Patterson -- would be the type of 7th round pick or more likely UDFA signing that would get me jazzed.   If you watch without factoring the externals -- he comes off as a high floor RB IMO.

 

Supposedly a really good dude, too. 

 

 

 

https://247sports.com/college/usc/Article/USC-football-Trojans-Travis-Dye-Injury-running-back-Caleb-Williams-Lincoln-Riley-Austin-Jones-197372373/

Dye made it clear from his first public comments as a Trojan he had come to help change the culture of the program. Coaches and teammates often spoke in the months since about how he has done just that, becoming a vocal leader and example for a team that is ranked No. 8 in the College Football Playoff and Associated Press top 25 rankings and just improved to 9-1 after going 4-8 last season.

 

"Important for the culture, but really important to the competitive nature, the way we practice, the energy, the competitiveness, the physicality and the toughness," Riley said. "I think we all know that was something that had to happen here, and he was a central figure in that. His presence on the practice field, it got everybody going. He is an infectious leader and an infectious personality.”

 

https://www.latimes.com/sports/usc/story/2022-10-12/usc-running-back-travis-dye-oregon

 

“I love what he stands for. He’s a competitive guy,” USC coach Lincoln Riley said. “And I appreciate that he’s made it a point to not just come in here and be a good running back and get better as a running back. He’s come in here because he wanted to make this place better.”

 

 

The decision to leave Oregon to be closer to home at USC, his family contends, was one of the toughest of Dye’s life. But ever since, they say they’ve seen a new spark in him, one that’s only grown brighter as USC has won six consecutive games to open the season, its best start since 2006.

Along the way, Riley has trusted Dye to be the Trojans’ workhorse, the first time he’s been handed such a major role outside of injury. His 571 yards rank second among running backs in the conference through six weeks of the season, but with the toughest test of the Trojans’ season looming Saturday in Utah, the eternal chip on his shoulder may be his most important contribution to USC’s push for a College Football Playoff semifinal bid.

He has his brothers to thank for that, Dye says.

“My older brothers gave me a hard time, every single day of my life,” he said. “Now looking back at it, they were just trying to teach me, to get me ready for this.”

Of course, it didn’t always feel that way. Like when Tony got a spitball stuck under young Travis’ eyelid. Or when his brothers squirted mustard in his mouth while he slept, a prank that left Travis forever disgusted by the condiment.

The constant competition between them only ratcheted up the stakes. The boys competed in whatever they could — foosball, air hockey, cornhole, dominoes, chess, you name it. They raced bikes. They raced on foot. Every Thanksgiving, along with playing the annual family Turkey Bowl, they’d race to officially determine which family member was fastest — a race that, until not long ago, had also been dominated by their dad.

At every step, Travis was naturally measured against what his brothers did before him. And by the time he made it to Norco High, his brothers had already left impressive legacies in their wake.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Holy crap.  Those USC guys really know how to block.  In that video, they were hat-on-hat, smack-you-in-the-mouth blocking.  First level, second level, pulling, trapping with an attitude.  Maybe they were just that much better than the opposition, but well done, gents.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Rook

Edited April 22, 2023 by The Rook

[Skinsinparadise]

 

[Warhead36]

32 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

That'd be wild. I don't think any of these OL are worthy of a top 5 pick let alone trading up into the top 3.

[Chump Bailey]

I was listening to Brett Kollmann on his Bootleg Football podcast where he ranked the Edge players and mentioned that when he talked to some of them (forgot the school) the players said Paris Johnson was not their primary concern and that Dawand Jones was. 

 

For what it's worth. I thought it was interesting and leads credence to GC's thoughts about Dawand's dominance. 

[KDawg]

4 minutes ago, Chump Bailey said:

I was listening to Brett Kollmann on his Bootleg Football podcast where he ranked the Edge players and mentioned that when he talked to some of them (forgot the school) the players said Paris Johnson was not their primary concern and that Dawand Jones was. 

 

For what it's worth. I thought it was interesting and leads credence to GC's thoughts about Dawand's dominance. 

To be fair, a lot of us (GC included) have mentioned Dawand’s talent. The question is the “other stuff”. Which we can’t grade. Which makes it tough to place him. 

[Chump Bailey]

1 minute ago, KDawg said:

To be fair, a lot of us (GC included) have mentioned Dawand’s talent. The question is the “other stuff”. Which we can’t grade. Which makes it tough to place him. 

 

True and myself too. I had him ranked 4th IIRC, but it seemed to me GC was higher on him than anyone. I think anyway. 

[KDawg]

11 minutes ago, Chump Bailey said:

 

True and myself too. I had him ranked 4th IIRC, but it seemed to me GC was higher on him than anyone. I think anyway. 

I had him second but now I have no idea and it feels like 16 is a risk. If he’s taken there I have to assume the Commanders did their homework and the character stuff was overblown. 

[RWJ]

59 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

That'd be wild. I don't think any of these OL are worthy of a top 5 pick let alone trading up into the top 3.

Not us moving up and giving up what we'd have to, to get our OT of choice.  No way.