Russian Invasion of Ukraine

[PokerPacker]

19 minutes ago, PleaseBlitz said:

I ate a squirrel once. 
 

Just gonna leave it at that. 

That's one way to have a moment.

[China]

 

[Larry]

Better avoid any floors other than the ground floor.  

 

[FootballZombie]

Seeing Wagner struggling to get ammunition is a serious feel good. Your not offsetting that by raiding prison's for fighters either.

Best news I've heard today.

 

 

[Wildbunny]

6 hours ago, FootballZombie said:

Seeing Wagner struggling to get ammunition is a serious feel good. Your not offsetting that by raiding prison's for fighters either.

Best news I've heard today.

 

 

Disagree.

 

The best part is that Russian army is complaining about shortage of ammo, because it is given to Wagner.

[The Sisko]

12 hours ago, FootballZombie said:

Seeing Wagner struggling to get ammunition is a serious feel good. Your not offsetting that by raiding prison's for fighters either.

Best news I've heard today.

I disagree also. They’ve made gains, albeit very small and very slowly with this strategy. It remains to be seen how long they can keep it up though. The meat is getting to the point where they’re rising up and refusing to fight. They had to send Putler’s private army to stop one unit a day or two ago.

 

[CousinsCowgirl84]

Russia can win this if they can keep fighting long enough. Just got to wait for enough of the west to take its eye off the ball.

Edited March 10, 2023 by CousinsCowgirl84

[Gurgeh]

14 hours ago, The Sisko said:

I disagree also. They’ve made gains, albeit very small and very slowly with this strategy. It remains to be seen how long they can keep it up though. The meat is getting to the point where they’re rising up and refusing to fight. They had to send Putler’s private army to stop one unit a day or two ago.

 

 

From the link below:

 

Bakhmut has become a “killing zone” that is probably highly challenging for Russia’s Wagner mercenary forces trying to continue their assault westward, the UK Ministry of Defence has said. Its latest intelligence update said that over the past four days, Wagner Group forces had taken control of most of eastern Bakhmut, while Ukrainian forces held its west and had demolished key bridges over the Bakhmutka River, “which now marks the front line”.

 

With Ukrainian units able to fire from fortified buildings to the west, this area has become a killing zone, likely making it highly challenging for Wagner forces attempting to continue their frontal assault westwards. However, the Ukrainian force and their supply lines to the west remain vulnerable to the continued Russian attempts to outflank the defenders from the north and south.

 

 

 

[Larry]

Seems like a long time since I read about what crushing blows the sanctions are imposing on Russia. Have they kind of gone away?  

[DCSaints_fan]

50 minutes ago, Larry said:

Seems like a long time since I read about what crushing blows the sanctions are imposing on Russia. Have they kind of gone away?  

There was a shock effect for sure, but I think they have mostly been worked around.  Its really hard to stop third party purchases and the West isn't the only game in town when it comes to alot of goods.   

 

It appeared not to effect their oil revenues at all, and indeed may have backfired

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/07/business/russia-oil-embargo.html?auth=login-google1tap&login=google1tap
 

Quote

Shunned by the West, Russia was able last year to redirect its potent oil exports to Asia, marshal a fleet of tankers unencumbered by Western penalties and adapt evasion schemes perfected previously by its allies Iran and Venezuela.

The strategy worked: President Vladimir V. Putin not only retained but also increased money from energy exports, according to official data, and may have brought in more cash, collected in the shadows of the oil trade, that could be helping the war effort.
...
For all of 2022, Russia managed to increase its oil output 2 percent and boost oil export earnings 20 percent, to $218 billion, according to estimates from the Russian government and the International Energy Agency, a group representing the world’s main energy consumers. Russia’s earnings were helped by an overall rise in oil prices after the start of the war and by growing demand after pandemic lockdowns; those trends also benefited Western oil giants like Exxon Mobil and Shell, which reported record profits for 2022. Russia also raked in $138 billion from natural gas, a nearly 80 percent rise over 2021 as record prices offset cuts in flows to Europe.

So Biden was right in that the sanctions on Russia oil would not do much ... Gee I wondered who pressured him to apply them   

Edited March 11, 2023 by DCSaints_fan

[Wildbunny]

From what I gathered from the long article posted by Politico (link is one or two pages back and is really worth a read), those sanctions where meant to seriously limit Russia's military economic. Not much about everything else. And in this department it is succeeding.

 

There was no way you could put a stop to an economy that is non existent in Russia baring St Petesburg or Moskow... You're bothering some oligarchs, maybe some people there, but the rest of Russia is not developped anyway and are living in the 19th century, so you bet they aren't gonna be affected by sanctions. War is already taking its toll on those populations.

[Sacks 'n' Stuff]

On 3/10/2023 at 4:41 PM, CousinsCowgirl84 said:

Russia can win this if they can keep fighting long enough. Just got to wait for enough of the west to take its eye off the ball.

If they can last until the next election and a Republican wins...

[China]

On 3/10/2023 at 5:41 PM, CousinsCowgirl84 said:

Russia can win this if they can keep fighting long enough. Just got to wait for enough of the west to take its eye off the ball.

 

I think they're hoping the next administration is more Trumpy and will abandon Ukraine.  That's still a couple of years away.  Also, it's one thing to take down the government of Ukraine.  It's another to hold all that territory.  They're having difficulty just taking territory, and supplying their troops.  With constant guerrilla warfare that would result if the government falls, they will have a mess on their hands and a difficult time holding Ukraine.  People initially thought Ukraine would just roll over and the people there would be happy with a Russian takeover.  We're seeing that the people in Ukraine aren't just going to roll over and submit, even if the Ukrainian government falls.  Putin bit off more than he can chew. 

[Larry]

Oh, they've already shown that they don't have a problem, once they have a territory, with just grabbing all the civilians an loading them on railroad cars to Siberia. 

[Gurgeh]

23 hours ago, DCSaints_fan said:

There was a shock effect for sure, but I think they have mostly been worked around.  Its really hard to stop third party purchases and the West isn't the only game in town when it comes to alot of goods.   

 

It appeared not to effect their oil revenues at all, and indeed may have backfired

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/07/business/russia-oil-embargo.html?auth=login-google1tap&login=google1tap
 

So Biden was right in that the sanctions on Russia oil would not do much ... Gee I wondered who pressured him to apply them   

 

In the years before the invasion Russia built up a massive national fund that it's using to finance it's own debts. That fund has effectively taken the place of Western markets that are blocked by sanctions.

 

In October 2022, the fund stood at $171 billion, of which about $120 billion was still available to the Russians. It's estimated that the Russians are withdrawing about $50 billion a year from the fund, which tells you how much of an impact the war and sanctions are having, because as had been pointed out, they are still making plenty of money from oil and gas exports, and despite that income they still need tens of billions more cash.

 

However, some easy maths tells us they have money to pay for their war for at least two more years.

 

The bigger effect on the Russian economy will come later. Whole sectors of their industry are going to have to pivot to new markets and find new sources of spare parts. It's hard to see access to Western markets becoming much easier without some changes at the top of the Russian government, And of course they've lost tens of thousands of young and no-so-young men, both in action and in those able to flee the country before conscription.

[CousinsCowgirl84]

16 minutes ago, Gurgeh said:

 

In the years before the invasion Russia built up a massive national fund that it's using to finance it's own debts. That fund has effectively taken the place of Western markets that are blocked by sanctions.

 

In October 2022, the fund stood at $171 billion, of which about $120 billion was still available to the Russians. It's estimated that the Russians are withdrawing about $50 billion a year from the fund, which tells you how much of an impact the war and sanctions are having, because as had been pointed out, they are still making plenty of money from oil and gas exports, and despite that income they still need tens of billions more cash.

 

However, some easy maths tells us they have money to pay for their war for at least two more years.

 

The bigger effect on the Russian economy will come later. Whole sectors of their industry are going to have to pivot to new markets and find new sources of spare parts. It's hard to see access to Western markets becoming much easier without some changes at the top of the Russian government, And of course they've lost tens of thousands of young and no-so-young men, both in action and in those able to flee the country before conscription.

The real problem is that while Russia is facing costs, so is the west. Specifically in terms of weapons stock piles. We can’t rebuild them as fast as Ukraine is using them and the whole thing is a stalemate. Russia has China on its side, which will help their war machine.
 

It seems pretty apparent that China will eventually deliver lethal aid to Russia. While building their one weapons stock piles while we deplete ours.

 

I think we need to figure out a way for this to be over faster, with an outcome that is acceptable to Europe, every month/year that this goes on the worse are own security situation gets, we might not have the weaponry to deter or counter China on the Taiwan issue.

Edited March 12, 2023 by CousinsCowgirl84

[Gurgeh]

6 minutes ago, CousinsCowgirl84 said:

The real problem is that while Russia is facing costs, so is the west. Specifically in terms of weapons stock piles. We can’t rebuild them as fast as Ukraine is using them and the whole thing is a stalemate. Russia has China on its side, which will help their war machine.
 

 

 

There's an in-depth look at how to meet Ukraine's needs for artillery ammunition on Perun's youtube channel. I'll put the link below - the guy does excellent work but it's not exactly light listening, he goes into a lot of detail.

 

The short version of it is the West can meet Ukraine's ammunition requirements, providing that governments are willing to prioritise supplying Ukraine now, rather than restocking the the West's own supplies of ammunition while the war is going on.

 

He also points out that Western and Central Europe produce more artillery ammunition than the US does, and that Asia-Pacific (especially South Korea) produces more ammunition than either the US or Europe. The trick is to use South Korea to restock Western supplies while the US and Europe funnel their ramped-up production to Ukraine. There are contracts to be signed and production to be increased, but it is all doable, providing Western governments want to do it.

 

 

[CousinsCowgirl84]

1 hour ago, Gurgeh said:

 

 

The short version of it is the West can meet Ukraine's ammunition requirements, providing that governments are willing to prioritise supplying Ukraine now, rather than restocking the the West's own supplies of ammunition while the war is going on.

 

Yeah, that’s the problem. We need to restock our supply to deter/counter China. And we need to supply Ukraine with weapons to maintain a buffer between Russia and NATO.

Edited March 12, 2023 by CousinsCowgirl84

[Pwyl]

What land battle would we be having with China that would require artillery shells?  

[PokerPacker]

28 minutes ago, Pwyl said:

What land battle would we be having with China that would require artillery shells?  

Why would we get involved in a land war in Asia?  That's a classic blunder.

[CousinsCowgirl84]

1 hour ago, Pwyl said:

What land battle would we be having with China that would require artillery shells?  

We have said we will defend Taiwan. 
 

https://www.reuters.com/world/biden-says-us-forces-would-defend-taiwan-event-chinese-invasion-2022-09-18/

 

 

If the US were to defend Taiwan from a Chinese attack with the U.S. military, how do you limit the scope of the war?

Edited March 12, 2023 by CousinsCowgirl84

[Pwyl]

Yeah I don't think you're deterring a Chinese invasion of Taiwan with American stockpiles of  artillery shells.  

[The Sisko]

7 hours ago, Gurgeh said:

 

There's an in-depth look at how to meet Ukraine's needs for artillery ammunition on Perun's youtube channel. I'll put the link below - the guy does excellent work but it's not exactly light listening, he goes into a lot of detail.

 

The short version of it is the West can meet Ukraine's ammunition requirements, providing that governments are willing to prioritise supplying Ukraine now, rather than restocking the the West's own supplies of ammunition while the war is going on.

 

He also points out that Western and Central Europe produce more artillery ammunition than the US does, and that Asia-Pacific (especially South Korea) produces more ammunition than either the US or Europe. The trick is to use South Korea to restock Western supplies while the US and Europe funnel their ramped-up production to Ukraine. There are contracts to be signed and production to be increased, but it is all doable, providing Western governments want to do it.

 

 

I didn't have time to watch this, but I can see one issue with his proposal. N. Korea might see the South's sending of shells to the west as a prime opportunity to make a move.

 

Regarding the ammunition and equipment shortages, it's affecting both sides. However, the UA continues to get more western armor and crews trained, along with the addition of longer-range strike capability in the GLSDB. In the meantime, Russia is now sending WWII-era tanks and APCs to the front. Given how depleted in manpower the Russians have to be after the self-imposed meat grinder of Bakhmut, it's very possible that the UA offensive we've been hearing about could go similarly to Kharkiv, or perhaps even better.🤞🏼🤞🏼

Edited March 12, 2023 by The Sisko

[CousinsCowgirl84]

3 minutes ago, Pwyl said:

Yeah I don't think you're deterring a Chinese invasion of Taiwan with American stockpiles of  artillery shells.  

No, you do that will the entirety of your military power. But don’t be so naive, we aren’t just expending artillery. We are expending anti aircraft systems, basic ammo, ect.

[TradeTheBeal!]

Time to update the List of Expertise.