DogofWar1 Posted October 23, 2022 Share Posted October 23, 2022 When the USSR fell apart, Russia's military spending dropped down to nothing for a year basically, then rebounded slowly but is still far below Soviet levels. That being said, their military had to decide what to fund and they chose strategic forces first, and then re: the rest, decided to go the route of a smaller efficient expeditionary force. If you imagine the Russian military as a food pyramid, the strategic forces (nukes and delivery systems) are the breads/pasta base of the pyramid. The Soviets already had a tough time keeping up with the US in terms of air and naval power, and Russia, with an economy that California by itself gives a run for its money, even has fallen behind on land forces (as we've seen). There is speculation that corruption or disrepair may have overtaken some of Russia's nukes. It's *possible* but is one hell of a gamble. Even if 10% of their nukes work, that's roughly 600 nukes, and generally it's expected that about 50% of their strategic nukes are aimed at the US (if not a higher %). That means if even 10% of their nukes work and they aim 50% at the US that's 300 nukes hitting the US (and another 300ish hitting Europe). The proper assumption needs to be that the nukes work, and that we should NEVER test that theory. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
China Posted October 23, 2022 Share Posted October 23, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
China Posted October 23, 2022 Share Posted October 23, 2022 Major explosion kills three at gunpowder factory working 24/7 to make rocket launchers and air defence systems for war on Ukraine A major explosion killed three people at a gunpowder factor working 24/7 to make rocket launchers and air defence systems for the war in Ukraine. Perm Gunpowder Plant, which produces Grad and Smerch weaponry for Russian troops, reportedly went up in flames. Video footage showed a plume of smoke rising in the distance, with some witnesses claiming to have seen the explosion at the time of the attack. Two of those who were killed were allegedly burned alive while more are feared dead and could be buried under the rubble. The building also makes engine charges for aircraft missiles, booster systems for cruise missiles and products for the A-135 missile defence system. Click on the link for the full article and video 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gurgeh Posted October 23, 2022 Share Posted October 23, 2022 There's been an effective news blackout on the Ukrainian side about progress around Kherson, but the Russians have withdrawn from three areas just to the north of the first bridge across the Dnipro. It's also where the dam is that the Russians are preparing to destroy. "Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command reiterated that Russian military leadership has moved their officer corps across the river but left newly-mobilized men on the western bank of the Dnipro River as a detachment left in contact.[8] Using such inexperienced forces to conduct a delaying action could prompt a Russian rout if Ukrainian forces choose to press the attack, as ISW previously assessed.[9] One Russian milblogger noted that the situation in Kherson Oblast is dire for Russian troops, noting that it is ”virtually impossible” for Russia to evacuate troops from the first lines of defense and that only two questions remain: how to withdraw the final front line of forces, and how to explain the withdrawal to the Russian population" Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 22 | Institute for the Study of War (understandingwar.org) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Larry Posted October 24, 2022 Share Posted October 24, 2022 7 hours ago, Gurgeh said: There's been an effective news blackout on the Ukrainian side about progress around Kherson, but the Russians have withdrawn from three areas just to the north of the first bridge across the Dnipro. It's also where the dam is that the Russians are preparing to destroy. "Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command reiterated that Russian military leadership has moved their officer corps across the river but left newly-mobilized men on the western bank of the Dnipro River as a detachment left in contact.[8] Using such inexperienced forces to conduct a delaying action could prompt a Russian rout if Ukrainian forces choose to press the attack, as ISW previously assessed.[9] One Russian milblogger noted that the situation in Kherson Oblast is dire for Russian troops, noting that it is ”virtually impossible” for Russia to evacuate troops from the first lines of defense and that only two questions remain: how to withdraw the final front line of forces, and how to explain the withdrawal to the Russian population" Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 22 | Institute for the Study of War (understandingwar.org) Unless their plan is to blow the dam, kill off all the untrained redshirts they stranded, and yell real loud about how those evil Ukrainians killed all them brave young volunteers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CousinsCowgirl84 Posted October 24, 2022 Share Posted October 24, 2022 (edited) https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-10-24-22#h_f7d5344685740ab2cf554b7b8e804490 More than two-dozen liberal House members are calling on President Joe Biden to shift course in his Ukraine strategy and pursue direct diplomacy with Russia to bring the months-long conflict to an end. In a letter sent to Biden on Monday, the group of 30 Democrats praised Biden’s efforts to support Ukraine while avoiding direct US involvement on the ground. But they suggest a more forceful attempt at bringing the war to an end through diplomacy, saying it is necessary to prevent a long and slogging conflict. So it’s not just republicans that want Biden to cede to Russian aggression. What kind of deal to end the war would these “liberal democrats” accept? whst would Ukraine accept? What would Russia accept? Has Russia even suggested direct talks would help? Edited October 24, 2022 by CousinsCowgirl84 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DogofWar1 Posted October 24, 2022 Share Posted October 24, 2022 I'd float that Russia can keep the captured Ukrainian territories if they reduce their nuclear arsenal to 1/10th it's current size and that Putin/Petrushev/several other nationalists all resign permanently. See what they say to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
China Posted October 24, 2022 Share Posted October 24, 2022 3 minutes ago, DogofWar1 said: I'd float that Russia can keep the captured Ukrainian territories if they reduce their nuclear arsenal to 1/10th it's current size and that Putin/Petrushev/several other nationalists all resign permanently. See what they say to that. It takes 2 sides to make a deal, and nothing I've heard from Zelensky seems to indicate he's willing to negotiate. Plus, they're pushing Russia back right now, they don't have incentive to give up when they think they can reclaim more territory. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CousinsCowgirl84 Posted October 24, 2022 Share Posted October 24, 2022 5 minutes ago, China said: It takes 2 sides to make a deal, and nothing I've heard from Zelensky seems to indicate he's willing to negotiate. Plus, they're pushing Russia back right now, they don't have incentive to give up when they think they can reclaim more territory. Once the weapons supply dry up Zelensky will be forced negotiate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Larry Posted October 24, 2022 Share Posted October 24, 2022 3 minutes ago, China said: It takes 2 sides to make a deal, and nothing I've heard from Zelensky seems to indicate he's willing to negotiate. Plus, they're pushing Russia back right now, they don't have incentive to give up when they think they can reclaim more territory. While I'm sure that Zelensi would like to get all his country back. And he could. If the US was willing to continue supporting him at the current levels. But he's not guaranteed to have that. The level of support Zelenski's getting should give the US a lot of leverage over him. OTOH, I don't see us having much leverage over Putin. Pretty sure he believes that in a few months, the politicians he owns will cut off support, without him giving up a single thing. (And he's probably right.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
China Posted October 24, 2022 Share Posted October 24, 2022 (edited) Somebody needs to beat some sense into McCarthy and the other idiots so that they realize it is in the US's best interests, and a global security issue to keep supporting Ukraine, if for no other reason than they are "the breadbasket of Europe" that supplies food to a lot of the world. But additionally, weakening Russia and their military also weakens an enemy of the US. The problem is that as @Larry noted, some of our politicians are in Putin's pocket. Edited October 24, 2022 by China 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
China Posted October 24, 2022 Share Posted October 24, 2022 Russia’s Medvedev Threatens Defense Industry Arrests During Tank Plant Visit mitry Medvedev, a former Russian President and ally of Vladimir Putin who is currently Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of Russia, has made implicit threats to bring officials from the country's state-run defense industries up on criminal charges for failing to meet production goals. Medvedev drew specific attention to the potential consequences of failing to meet contract requirements during a visit to the country's main tank plant in Nizhny Tagil today. This comes amid reports that Russia has been digging deep into stocks of Cold War-era tanks that are virtually antiques to make up for the decaying readiness of high-tech armored vehicles and staggering losses in the fighting in Ukraine. Medvedev described his visit to Nizhny Tagil – which he said came at the direction of Supreme Commander-in-Chief Putin – in a post on the Telegram social media network. This was accompanied by a short video showing T-72B3 and T-90M tanks are seen in various stages of production. The T-90M, examples of which have now been captured and destroyed by Ukrainian forces in the course of the conflict in that country, is the most advanced tank currently in active Russian service. Click on the link for the full article Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheGreatBuzz Posted October 25, 2022 Share Posted October 25, 2022 3 hours ago, CousinsCowgirl84 said: https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-10-24-22#h_f7d5344685740ab2cf554b7b8e804490 More than two-dozen liberal House members are calling on President Joe Biden to shift course in his Ukraine strategy and pursue direct diplomacy with Russia to bring the months-long conflict to an end. In a letter sent to Biden on Monday, the group of 30 Democrats praised Biden’s efforts to support Ukraine while avoiding direct US involvement on the ground. But they suggest a more forceful attempt at bringing the war to an end through diplomacy, saying it is necessary to prevent a long and slogging conflict. So it’s not just republicans that want Biden to cede to Russian aggression. What kind of deal to end the war would these “liberal democrats” accept? whst would Ukraine accept? What would Russia accept? Has Russia even suggested direct talks would help? Maybe I'm reading it differently than you all but I don't see them telling Biden that he should negotiate with Putin over what he can get. It mentions more "direct diplomacy". That could be something like "Putty, we're tired of this. We see how weak your military is. Stop this now or we will announce a $10 billion bounty on your head. How much do you trust those with the keys to your nukes or that armed guard standing next to you?" That would be direct diplomacy. I don't think they are saying we should start negotiating on Ukraine's behalf without their consent. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CousinsCowgirl84 Posted October 25, 2022 Share Posted October 25, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, The Almighty Buzz said: Maybe I'm reading it differently than you all but I don't see them telling Biden that he should negotiate with Putin over what he can get. It mentions more "direct diplomacy". That could be something like "Putty, we're tired of this. We see how weak your military is. Stop this now or we will announce a $10 billion bounty on your head. How much do you trust those with the keys to your nukes or that armed guard standing next to you?" That would be direct diplomacy. I don't think they are saying we should start negotiating on Ukraine's behalf without their consent. I think you are reading it wrong. For example, diplomacy isn’t threatening to assassinate (or pay someone to assassinate) the head of state of another country… It sure doesn’t sound like they are encouraging Biden to escalate the war in a way that would lead to a direct military confrontation with Russia. Edited October 25, 2022 by CousinsCowgirl84 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
China Posted October 25, 2022 Share Posted October 25, 2022 ‘Star Wars’ actor Mark Hamill sends 500 drones to Ukraine He may have hung up his lightsaber as Luke Skywalker in 2019, but “Star Wars” actor Mark Hamill is still fighting. This time, it’s for Ukraine. During an interview with Bloomberg Radio’s Sound On program, the actor revealed he helped send 500 drones to Ukraine. “Very simply, Ukraine needs drones,” Hamill told Bloomberg. “They define war outcomes, they protect their land, their people, they monitor the border, they’re eyes in the sky.” Hamill serves as an ambassador for Ukraine’s “Army of Drones” project, working to combat the Russian invasion, which began in February. Click on the link for the full article 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildbunny Posted October 25, 2022 Share Posted October 25, 2022 8 hours ago, CousinsCowgirl84 said: Once the weapons supply dry up Zelensky will be forced negotiate. Sure.They're perfectly aare of that. So they still do have 3/4 ahead of them to reclaim as much territories as they can. Still, I could see US using a third party country to keep selling stuff to Ukraine... 4 hours ago, CousinsCowgirl84 said: I think you are reading it wrong. For example, diplomacy isn’t threatening to assassinate (or pay someone to assassinate) the head of state of another country… Assassination is negotiating. Putin has mastered this art long ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CousinsCowgirl84 Posted October 25, 2022 Share Posted October 25, 2022 4 hours ago, Wildbunny said: Sure.They're perfectly aare of that. So they still do have 3/4 ahead of them to reclaim as much territories as they can. Still, I could see US using a third party country to keep selling stuff to Ukraine... 4 hours ago, Wildbunny said: Assassination is negotiating. Putin has mastered this art long ago. It’s not diplomacy… To your first point, I don’t know why we would use a third party. We are openly supporting Ukraine. If we stopped openly sending them military aid it would be because the money for the military aid dried up because of short sighted democrats (as above) and republicans who are in Putins pockets, or at the very least find his authoritarian control appealing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
China Posted October 25, 2022 Share Posted October 25, 2022 16 hours ago, China said: Somebody needs to beat some sense into McCarthy and the other idiots so that they realize it is in the US's best interests, and a global security issue to keep supporting Ukraine, if for no other reason than they are "the breadbasket of Europe" that supplies food to a lot of the world. But additionally, weakening Russia and their military also weakens an enemy of the US. The problem is that as @Larry noted, some of our politicians are in Putin's pocket. Looks like Boris Johnson is coming to try and talk some sense into them: Johnson to shore up US support for Ukraine after failed power bid Boris Johnson’s allies signalled on Monday that the former UK prime minister wanted to focus on ensuring US support for Ukraine in Washington remained strong, while promoting his levelling-up agenda at home, after failing in his bid to secure a swift return to Downing Street. Close allies said that, instead, Johnson wants to put the position he built while in office, as one of the main drivers of western backing for Ukraine in its war against Russia, to good use. They said he planned to spend more time in Washington DC to lobby for continued bipartisan US support for Ukraine. Ukrainian officials were shocked last week after a senior Republican suggested that future assistance for Kyiv could be limited if the party wins the House of Representatives in November’s US midterm elections. Other senior Republicans have since pushed back against reducing financial and military support for Ukraine. The friend of Johnson added: “There is no formal role yet but Boris is very worried about the situation in Ukraine. He believes that the US and US defence spending is the best force for military success in the war and wants to make sure support does not slip away.” The US is by far Ukraine’s biggest donor. Click on the link for the full article 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fan since a Fetus Posted October 25, 2022 Share Posted October 25, 2022 The only thing Russia will negotiate for is land. They’ve stated this recently. No other option is on the table. If we negotiate land, that isn’t ours, to give to Russia to appease them, then this war is completely justified in Russias eyes and they have won. I don’t see Zelensky laying down for this one. Like China says, that would give the Russians a very valuable land and food source. That won’t be good for the west at all. Furthermore, this will let other countries know that you can invade a land and get your win. I’m mainly thinking about China/Taiwan here. The only negotiating that would be acceptable is Russia’s complete surrender. It will have far reaching consequences if it’s anything more. We can’t leave another country fighting for itself after we assisted in one way or another. I’m thinking Afghanistan. We also hung the Kurds out to dry during 45’s tenure. If we leave again, we might be further signaling to the world that we can not be trusted and won’t be for the people over the long haul. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeTheBeal! Posted October 25, 2022 Share Posted October 25, 2022 Our wacky left has always been a safe haven for eastern disinformation. Same as it ever was… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Larry Posted October 25, 2022 Share Posted October 25, 2022 30 minutes ago, TradeTheBeal! said: Our wacky left has always been a safe haven for eastern disinformation. Same as it ever was… I know I might be hitting the switch here for a massive dump. But could you explain how you get from the current political situation, to "the whacky left" and "eastern disinformation"? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeTheBeal! Posted October 25, 2022 Share Posted October 25, 2022 13 minutes ago, Larry said: But could you explain For you? LOL no. Not in a million years. ‘Don’t ask again. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CousinsCowgirl84 Posted October 25, 2022 Share Posted October 25, 2022 Hope for the best and all that but borris Johnson shoring up support doesn’t give me much confidence…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CousinsCowgirl84 Posted October 25, 2022 Share Posted October 25, 2022 More details just released about the 30 democrats who pushed for diplomacy. https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/25/politics/pramila-jayapal-ukraine-letter-democratic-backlash/index.html A House progressive leader abruptly withdrew a letter pushing the Biden administration to pursue diplomacy in Russia’s war with Ukraine, an about-face following furious internal backlash from Democrats who felt blindsided by the move just two weeks before the November midterms. The move by Rep. Pramila Jayapal, the head of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, came after she released a letter – initially signed in June – from 30 liberals calling for more diplomacy, a move that appeared to undercut their party’s resolute support for Ukraine. Releasing the letter this week was not endorsed by most of the members, and some said they would not sign it now given how the war has turned in recent days. Turns out it was a letter that was written in June, the people who wrote it decided not to release it, then one represent is went rogue and releases it now without consulting the other people who wrote it, who are not for releasing it… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LD0506 Posted October 25, 2022 Share Posted October 25, 2022 Putin's last best hope is to get the Repubs he bought to seize power and cut off aid It IS that stark They aren't even pretending anymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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