The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[Cooleyfan1993]

8 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

Ok new owners! Carr and Adams in 2023, and GO! 

[FootballZombie]

The Raiders don't save any more money in a cut vs trade scenario.

 

Outside of a bro move where they give Carr complete control over his next destination, I don't see why they would cut him at all when they can get something from a trade, even if the return is not hefty.

[CapsSkins]

27 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

 

Omg. LET'S GO!!!!!!!!!!!!

19 minutes ago, Cooleyfan1993 said:

Ok new owners! Carr and Adams in 2023, and GO! 

 

We can't afford Davante and wouldn't need him on this team, either. Especially not after paying Carr.

 

We'd need whatever money we have remaining on extending Payne, O-Line and DBs.

[Sacks 'n' Stuff]

Not sure if this has been posted but I have Wentz taking 422 snaps so far this season and Heinicke with 282. We’re averaging about 70 snaps a game so at that rate, approximately 1190 snaps for the season. Wentz would need 833 snaps for 70% or you could say Taylor needs 357 snaps to get 30%. If he plays the whole game this week against Houston, that gets you really close. Probably need Taylor to play at least one more full game after that to lock up that conditional pick as a third rounder.

[wit33]

8 minutes ago, FootballZombie said:

The Raiders don't save any more money in a cut vs trade scenario.

 

Outside of a bro move where they give Carr complete control over his next destination, I don't see why they would cut him at all when they can get something from a trade, even if the return is not hefty.

It wouldn’t be much it appears. No team is taking on that salary. 
 

The jig is almost up for this level of QB. 

[CapsSkins]

Just now, Sacks 'n' Stuff said:

Not sure if this has been posted but I have Wentz taking 422 snaps so far this season and Heinicke with 282. We’re averaging about 70 snaps a game so at that rate, approximately 1190 snaps for the season. Wentz would need 833 snaps for 70% or you could say Taylor needs 357 snaps to get 30%. If he plays the whole game this week against Houston, that gets you really close. Probably need Taylor to play at least one more full game after that to lock up that conditional pick as a third rounder.

 

Just slow-play Wentz's medical clearance and start Heinicke through the bye. That will clinch the 30% snap threshold and you can spin it as giving Wentz all the time he needs to ramp back up, including the bye week.

[Voice_of_Reason]

8 hours ago, Koolblue13 said:

He was a passenger, not the pilot. On a private plane. It's ****ing lame. Can't even command a can of beer on your own plane without being reprimanded. 

Yeah but it’s a league, not Commanders, rule. 
 

If you’re going to break the rules, don’t put images of the rule breaking on social media.  
 

I think Ron clearly didn’t care.  Or he would have shut it down on the plane.

 

But when some dope posted it on social media, they had to at least pretend to care. 

[CapsSkins]

1 minute ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

Yeah but it’s a league, not Commanders, rule. 
 

If you’re going to break the rules, don’t put images of the rule breaking on social media.  
 

I think Ron clearly didn’t care.  Or he would have shut it down on the plane.

 

But when some dope posted it on social media, they had to at least pretend to care. 

 

That dope would be Daron Payne. Who quickly deleted the IG story btw, because I went looking for it that very night (Monday night) and it was gone. So it got shut down very quickly, but of course the clip went viral and the damage was done.

[Voice_of_Reason]

5 hours ago, Est.1974 said:

Through 10 games its broadly 60% Wentz, pretty logical with 6 starts from 10 games as the game by game snap counts average out. TH likely needs 3 more games to keep Wentz from possibly getting to 70%. TH should get the starts through to the bye IMO.

I did the math, it’s really 1+ game.  If Taylor plays about 5 games he should get there.  Especially with the 80+ snaps from last week.  
 

I think there’s kidof no chance at this point we give up a 2nd.  I think TH will get more than enough snaps, if not the entire rest of the season, to save the pick. 

4 minutes ago, CapsSkins said:

 

That dope would be Daron Payne. Who quickly deleted the IG story btw, because I went looking for it that very night (Monday night) and it was gone. So it got shut down very quickly, but of course the clip went viral and the damage was done.

Ok, so he’s the dope.  Doesn’t matter who the dope was really.  Once it’s out there it’s out there.

 

It’s a crime that can easily be forgiven but it’s still a crime. Even if it’s a stupid crime.  

[Professor_Nutter_Butter]

49 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

[CommanderCarson]

5 minutes ago, wit33 said:

It wouldn’t be much it appears. No team is taking on that salary. 
 

The jig is almost up for this level of QB. 

I agree with you, and enjoy a lot of your takes even if outside the box and not mainstream. 
 

QB became so important that if you didn’t have one, it was hard to win games at all. Jobs are on the line every year, and it’s easier to say to your boss that you’re close finishing 7-9 or 8-8 with a decent QB and hamstrung roster as opposed to finishing 3-13 with a nobody playing at QB. It’s hard to evaluate the roster as well. Receivers , OL, pass blocking backs, etc. aren’t able to showcase those skills in a limited offense that’s restricted by a terrible QB. So I get the logic and the movement at the time in some ways to pay average QBs 12+ percent of the cap. But in some ways not at all.

 

Football just doesn’t work like that and never will. You need all 53 men to be good solid players in their roles in order to be a good football team. Solid in all 3 phases. And it’s almost impossible to do that when allocating 1/8th of your cap space to a guy that’s good, but not good enough to overcome a deficient roster around him. And so I do agree, you’re going to begin to see the market correct itself for that type of QB. You’ll have a handful of QBs like the Burrows, Herberts, Allens, Mahomes, etc. of the world that are worth their weight in gold. But I think you are going to see more teams build out complete rosters and hand the reigns to stop gaps on reasonable deals while attacking the draft hard. It’s so much easier to win with a QB that becomes good on that rookie contract. Handing 35-40 million for the carrs and cousins of the world is a waste of time.

[xxprodigyxx]

i wasn't thrilled about the wentz trade, but i understood it to a degree. i just wish we didn't give up that second pick when it seemed like the colts didn't have the leverage. i would have preferred getting someone else in free agency, like tyrod taylor, because i feared the likely possibility of committing significant draft capital in a failed reclamation project.

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

4 hours ago, Koolblue13 said:

I saw something about it on FB today making fun of us. I follow a lot of Philly social media and they've been priding themselves on crushing beers everywhere this entire season. And not just the eagles.

 

To the point that I thought when I first saw Heini with a beer, I thought it more of his retarded antics like copying what Kurt Cousins did the week before. I thought he was copying the Eagles. 

 

It's dumber than his sneaker BS, which I guarantee his sister and her couch aren't amused by his spending. He's about as careful with his money as he is any pass over 15 yards.

I wouldn’t put the antics on Heinicke.  He appeared to be keeping to himself enjoying a beer and Young made it a spectacle.  But yeah, I agree - it’s kind of lame to jock the Kirk stuff that was originally the Vikings thing, and they literally just lost to them.  But that’s more on the guys, as it’s not like Heinicke asked for that.  I actually liked how he was like “nah” about taking his shirt off.

 

As for the shoes, they are a few hundred bucks a pair and he gets $125k bonus every game he wins. He’s gonna be alright.

[Skinsinparadise]

I would take Carr in a nano second if its at the Wentz salary 28 million or so. 

 

This defense IMO is legit.  the weapons are legit.  The O line IMO can be fixed faster than some think -- heck argubaly its already been improving as it was discussed in Finlay's latest podcast.

 

You add a good QB.  A Qb who is above average to the mix and this team IMO is dangerous.   Like the Lions who required Stafford to carry them on their back -- Carr IMO is the most apples to apples example to that.  Bad o line.  bad defense.  Bad running game.   Yeah Adams is a stud but Waller has been out for about half the season, Renfrow missed a lot of the season.

 

The Raiders put the team on Carr's back.  That's not an eccentric opinion of mine, plenty of people say the same, including Jay Gruden who followed the Raiders closely when his brother coached them. 

 

 

 

Edited November 19, 2022 by Skinsinparadise

[Renegade7]

Carr's not a bad QB, if he gets cut, I'll listen, trading for him is something I'm not down for.

 

But if Vegas does cut him, NFL should investigate that franchise for criminal negligent malpractice, they are destroying that franchise in a way I didn't think was possible, they would defunct if it wasn't for the TV revenue sharing it seemsike, that's insane.

Edited November 19, 2022 by Renegade7

[Skinsinparadise]

1 minute ago, Renegade7 said:

Carr's nor a bad QB, if he gets cut, I'll listen, trading for him is something I'm not down for.

 

But if Vegas does cut him, NFL should investigate that franchise for criminal negligent malpractice, they are destroying that franchise in a way I didn't think was possible, they would defunct if it wasn't for the TV revenue sharing it seemsike, that's insane.

 

They do one thing right IMO is that stadium.  Besides being a killer stadium, their game day experience is one of the best I've seen.  they really make it into an event.

 

But yeah Mark Davis is incompetent, nowhere as bad as Dan but definitely bottom tier. 

[CapsSkins]

20 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

I would take Carr in a nano second if its at the Wentz salary 28 million or so. 

 

This defense IMO is legit.  the weapons are legit.  The O line IMO can be fixed faster than some think -- heck argubaly its already been improving as it was discussed in Finlay's latest podcast.

 

You add a good QB.  A Qb who is above average to the mix and this team IMO is dangerous.   Like the Lions who required Stafford to carry them on their back -- Carr IMO is the most apples to apples example to that.  Bad o line.  bad defense.  Bad running game.   Yeah Adams is a stud but Waller has been out for about half the season, Renfrow missed a lot of the season.

 

The Raiders put the team on Carr's back.  That's not an eccentric opinion of mine, plenty of people say the same, including Jay Gruden who followed the Raiders closely when his brother coached them. 

 

I feel like Carr's market would be significantly higher than $28M but **** it, I'd still pay it.

[Skinsinparadise]

6 minutes ago, CapsSkins said:

 

I feel like Carr's market would be significantly higher than $28M but **** it, I'd still pay it.

 

Could be.  But, I am not into 40 million for him.

 

You put Carr on a well rounded team and I believe you will be really happy with him.  In contrast, Tannehill has mostly been as an example a cog on the wheel, whereas Carr has been basically the whole wheel.

 

Tannheill though to give him props played one of the best games I've seen him play last Thursday.

 

I've had two favs in that 2nd tier category for years.  1.  Stafford.   2.  Carr. 

 

I've been one of the guys that mocked Bruce's idea that this team is "close" years back and knocked the Alex Smith trade for that reason.  IMO this team now is indeed close.  A good QB IMO is the top ingredient needed -- that and beefing the O line.    The defense is for real IMO, good weapons, too.  Need a QB and need to beef the interior O line. 

Edited November 19, 2022 by Skinsinparadise

[Renegade7]

19 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

They do one thing right IMO is that stadium.  Besides being a killer stadium, their game day experience is one of the best I've seen.  they really make it into an event.

 

It is a nice stadium, but they wouldn't of gotten it if Vegas didn't agree to take it out on tourists to help pay for it, imo.  This from folks in Vegas last time I visited in 2019 while it was still being built.

 

19 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

But yeah Mark Davis is incompetent, nowhere as bad as Dan but definitely bottom tier. 

 

Talk about once proud franchise run into the ground, yea, I haven't seen anything on the level if criminal, but Mark is perfect example of someone who only got in their position because of their parents, not because they know what they're doing at all.

[Est.1974]

1 hour ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

I did the math, it’s really 1+ game.  If Taylor plays about 5 games he should get there.  Especially with the 80+ snaps from last week.  

It’s more than 5 games, I did the math too. With a normal snap count per game, it’s 7 from TH to close the debate IMO.

[Skinsinparadise]

I want to move on from Wentz but I suspect he's a different dude today than he was then.

 

 

 

12 minutes ago, Renegade7 said:

 

It is a nice stadium, but they wouldn't of gotten it if Vegas didn't agree to take it out on tourists to help pay for it, imo.  This from folks in Vegas last time I visited in 2019 while it was still being built.

 

 

Talk about once proud franchise run into the ground, yea, I haven't seen anything on the level if criminal, but Mark is perfect example of someone who only got in their position because of their parents, not because they know what they're doing at all.

 

Stadium is great and IMO they do a killer job on game day making it an experience.

 

But the rest of it has been "meh". 

[FootballZombie]

1 hour ago, CapsSkins said:

I feel like Carr's market would be significantly higher than $28M but **** it, I'd still pay it.

 

That's why I think he does not get cut.

 

If Carr hits a open market, he is getting a deal that will likely average 38 Mil. Might see a 25 mil-ish 1st year, but its gonna average like 38.

Somebody is gonna look at that, realize he essentially has that now, and will pay a draft pick for his services so you don't have to fight others for him.

 

He is a very good QB and a franchise QB. He will continue to get bag from somebody.

 

 

 

 

[duffy]

https://www.instagram.com/reel/ClJ_bE4sMHm/?igshid=NTdlMDg3MTY=

 

🤣🤣🤣

[wit33]

22 minutes ago, FootballZombie said:

 

That's why I think he does not get cut.

 

If Carr hits a open market, he is getting a deal that will likely average 38 Mil. Might see a 25 mil-ish 1st year, but its gonna average like 38.

 

These days are long gone. The Raiders didn’t even put themselves in position to pay him this much. Wild Raiders are able to get out of his contract year 1 lol.
 

Needed Kirks agent. 
 

22 minutes ago, FootballZombie said:

Somebody is gonna look at that, realize he essentially has that now, and will pay a draft pick for his services so you don't have to fight others for him.

 

He is a very good QB and a franchise QB. He will continue to get bag from somebody.

 

The contract is a problem. We’ll see though. Similar to Kirk’s situation when leaving here IMO. Tough to give up assets and have to big money. 

[CapsSkins]

3 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Could be.  But, I am not into 40 million for him.

 

You put Carr on a well rounded team and I believe you will be really happy with him.  In contrast, Tannehill has mostly been as an example a cog on the wheel, whereas Carr has been basically the whole wheel.

 

Tannheill though to give him props played one of the best games I've seen him play last Thursday.

 

I've had two favs in that 2nd tier category for years.  1.  Stafford.   2.  Carr. 

 

I've been one of the guys that mocked Bruce's idea that this team is "close" years back and knocked the Alex Smith trade for that reason.  IMO this team now is indeed close.  A good QB IMO is the top ingredient needed -- that and beefing the O line.    The defense is for real IMO, good weapons, too.  Need a QB and need to beef the interior O line. 

 

I agree with this.

 

Since 2000, the highest cap % tied up in QB1 for a team that reached the Super Bowl was the 2009 Colts who paid Peyton ~19% of the cap (he lost that year to the Saints).

 

The second highest was Matt Ryan in 2016 who had 15.3% of cap. 3rd is Peyton in 2013 who was at 14% of cap.

 

4th is Brady who won in 2020 at 12.6% of cap.

 

The median/average of SB-reaching QBs who aren't on rookie contracts in the past 12 years is around 11-12% of cap. All non-rookie SB-reaching QBs is close to 11% and if you exclude Brady it inches up closer to 12%.

 

So basically, tying up $40M in Carr (~20%) means the only precedent for that allocation reaching the SB is prime Peyton Manning. The next closest (15%) would be closer to a $30M cap hit for next year.

 

Using that logic, I'm with you in wanting Carr at around the current Wentz price point. But times are-a changing. Mahomes is at a $36M cap hit this year and set to go to $47M (!) next year. Carr is no Mahomes, but clearly people expect the Chiefs to compete even with Mahomes' ballooning cap hit. Josh Allen's cap hit spikes to $40M next year, too. Again, Carr isn't Allen but clearly people expect the Bills to compete even at that higher cap allocation.

 

So I could see a desperate team offering Carr significantly more than $28M. And up to the mid-30's, I think we might as well do it. We have no better option. But once you get to $40M it gets really difficult to make the case IMO.