The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[CapsSkins]

 

And here's the rough Excel backup

 

[IrepDC]

Personally, count me out on the Carr deal. Some good discussion about scenarios with him, but for me, the Raiders outright talking of cutting him is a red flag. Why would they cut the most important position on the team if he were a Franchise QB?? They've had him since his rookiebyear and know him well. That team was loaded this year and underperformed all season. From what I have seen, Carr has been breaking down in the media and not looking like a leader of a winning football team. Why are we trading assets and bailing the Raiders out? I would rather draft another OL with that pick and use that money on players who aren't underperforming on our own roster. We gave Wentz 6 games before we gave up that experiment. What's the out if Carr fails? How many years do we have to tie to him? We lose one of our own young defenders in the secondary or on the DL if Carr's contract is a milti-year commitment. The Raiders are talking about cutting him with a third of the season left. I'm interested in hearing what Carr has done on the football field this year that makes this a good idea. 

[IrepDC]

The Raiders started this year with better passing weapons than us, an equal running game, and an equally bad OL. Carr has been marginally better than Wentz or Heinicke. Giving him a huge chunk of money not only loses players because we can't pay them, you risk messing up the chemistry in this locker room if he doesn't perform. Paying Carr $35 mil to be decent while we have to let home grown talent walk won't fly well in the locker room in my opinion. 

 

I have not followed the Raiders closely this year so I'm open to the fact I may be missing something. In previous years I remember Carr being a slow starter who has clutch moments if you let him hang around. Can someone help explain how they stacked the team for Carr this year and this is the result? Maybe he has been carrying the team, but then why would they be cutting him? 

[CapsSkins]

2 minutes ago, IrepDC said:

The Raiders started this year with better passing weapons than us, an equal running game, and an equally bad OL. Carr has been marginally better than Wentz or Heinicke. Giving him a huge chunk of money not only loses players because we can't pay them, you risk messing up the chemistry in this locker room if he doesn't perform. Paying Carr $35 mil to be decent while we have to let home grown talent walk won't fly well in the locker room in my opinion. 

 

I have not followed the Raiders closely this year so I'm open to the fact I may be missing something. In previous years I remember Carr being a slow starter who has clutch moments if you let him hang around. Can someone help explain how they stacked the team for Carr this year and this is the result? Maybe he has been carrying the team, but then why would they be cutting him? 

 

Renfrow and Waller are both injured and have each only played 5 out of 9 games for the Raiders this year. Outside of Davante, they don't really have any pass-catchers. Running-wise they have Josh Jacobs and nobody else.  

[Est.1974]

9 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

I am no expert on contracts but from a layperson standpoint, Carr's contract is funkier than the standard one, where the out comes almost immediately after year 1

Yep it’s like a 1 year 25mil deal with an out after this season.

 

Other key parts, another 40mil fully guarantees in March, being his full 2023 money plus an element of his 2024 salary and more importantly it includes a full no trade clause.

9 hours ago, FootballZombie said:

The Raiders don't save any more money in a cut vs trade scenario.

 

Outside of a bro move where they give Carr complete control over his next destination, I don't see why they would cut him at all when they can get something from a trade, even if the return is not hefty.

No trade clause in his contract reportedly. They can’t just move him on, not without him picking his destination anyway.

[Koolblue13]

11 hours ago, CapsSkins said:

 

Went to a track in Vegas and drove a Lambo Huracan and a Ferrari 458. Super fun cars but couldn't imagine driving one around in a city.

 

I used to have a Jag F-Type that I whipped around LA, that's about as close to the ground as I'd commute in. If I get to the point where I spend that kind of money on a car, I'd go Bentley GT. But honestly I'm lower-key than I was in my mid-20s single banker days. They're just toys, plus having stuff like that puts a target on your back. Just ask Brian Robinson. 

I use to race trucks and build hot rods. Bam use to hang at my bar and park at my house and I got to drive his Lambos. I had an 1/8th dirt track in my yard in jersey and 30 cars. 

 

A Lamborghini is so much cooler than sneakers and definitely worth more years later. Do you think a pair of green and white nikes being sold by Taylor Heinicke is 5 years is going to be worth more than a 200mph super car?  

[Califan007 The Constipated]

I'm sorry, but I miss Wentz' arm lol...love Heinicke's intangibles, but really wish we had Wentz's arm in the offense.

 

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

8 hours ago, CapsSkins said:

 

I agree with this.

 

Since 2000, the highest cap % tied up in QB1 for a team that reached the Super Bowl was the 2009 Colts who paid Peyton ~19% of the cap (he lost that year to the Saints).

 

The second highest was Matt Ryan in 2016 who had 15.3% of cap. 3rd is Peyton in 2013 who was at 14% of cap.

 

4th is Brady who won in 2020 at 12.6% of cap.

 

The median/average of SB-reaching QBs who aren't on rookie contracts in the past 12 years is around 11-12% of cap. All non-rookie SB-reaching QBs is close to 11% and if you exclude Brady it inches up closer to 12%.

 

So basically, tying up $40M in Carr (~20%) means the only precedent for that allocation reaching the SB is prime Peyton Manning. The next closest (15%) would be closer to a $30M cap hit for next year.

 

Using that logic, I'm with you in wanting Carr at around the current Wentz price point. But times are-a changing. Mahomes is at a $36M cap hit this year and set to go to $47M (!) next year. Carr is no Mahomes, but clearly people expect the Chiefs to compete even with Mahomes' ballooning cap hit. Josh Allen's cap hit spikes to $40M next year, too. Again, Carr isn't Allen but clearly people expect the Bills to compete even at that higher cap allocation.

 

So I could see a desperate team offering Carr significantly more than $28M. And up to the mid-30's, I think we might as well do it. We have no better option. But once you get to $40M it gets really difficult to make the case IMO.

 

I think the odds are good he gets released instead of traded.

 

When the 49ers offered a first pick and change according to Gruden, Mike Jones and others for Kirk, he at the time was making 24 million but also still in his 20s and on the rise at least in the theory.  Also, it was up to the next team, in that case the 49ers to give him the contract.  So the context totally diferent from Carr.

 

Heck even when Minny resigned Kirk. His salary is in the 30s, not the 40s like Carr.  

 

Unlike this team for Kirk where the context was a mile different, I dount the Raiders can get something fort Carr.  Heck if Carr's contract was in the 30s like Kirk, maybe they could.  but you never know?

Edited November 20, 2022 by Skinsinparadise

[KDawg]

3 hours ago, Califan007 The Constipated said:

I'm sorry, but I miss Wentz' arm lol...love Heinicke's intangibles, but really wish we had Wentz's arm in the offense.

 

 

 

What if I told you one of our other quarterbacks has a Wentz type arm? But wait… THERE’S MORE! He’s also got Heinicke mobility and, based on his season with the worst OL in college football last year he also has some serious moxie!

 

But he’s not starting until next year, so…

[Skinsinparadise]

Just now, KDawg said:

What if I told you one of our other quarterbacks has a Wentz type arm? But wait… THERE’S MORE! He’s also got Heinicke mobility and, based on his season with the worst OL in college football last year he also has some serious moxie!

 

But he’s not starting until next year, so…

 

I am intrigued by Howell.  I think he has if anything better mobility than Heinicke.  I wish he had Wentz's height and not Heinicke's though, that's my one pause.

 

 

Looks like they are getiinng him ready at least.  I gather he doesn't play until-if they are eliminated

 

https://commanderswire.usatoday.com/2022/11/13/washington-commanders-coach-ron-rivera-talks-where-rookie-qb-sam-howell-is-in-his-development-taylor-heinicke-carson-wentz/?taid=6370f9b161b95900017066bd&utm_campaign=trueanthem&utm_medium=trueanthem&utm_source=twitter

After Saturday’s practice, Rivera was asked where Howell was in his development.

“I think he’s getting more and more comfortable,” Rivera said of Howell. “There’s some little details to his technique and his footwork that I know ]QB coach] Kenny [Zampese]’s really harping on. In college, you can get away with those things, and he did, and he did a really great job, but there are some things that in this league you have to be really good at.”

“Great example, a couple of times in the preseason when he got sacked or got hit, it was understanding that you’re in shotgun; we considered this a five-step drop. Well, it’s not catch the ball, shuffle your feet and throw it. It’s you may have to take a step and a half to make it a five-step drop and that helps aid in the timing, helps aid in the protection, because if you’re only at three and a half, four yards, that guard or that tackles expecting you to be at five or six and you’re not, that’s tough on him. So those are little things that he has to understand what certain plays call for in terms of the depth of your drop and how important that is to your protection.”

 

 

[Est.1974]

Remember Carr has a no trade clause.

[Skinsinparadise]

10 minutes ago, Est.1974 said:

Remember Carr has a no trade clause.

 

Another reason why for this team to have a shot he needs to be released.  Regardless, if somehow Dan survives almost zero chance he'd want to come here I'd guess.   He'd go from a bad owner to an even worse owner, much worse.

 

I am not married to Carr but he's on the table for me among the options.  

 

What started off as a potential controversy has been anything but. And that's the best news for the Commanders.

It's why Taylor Heinicke is expected to be the quarterback moving forward.

Heinicke will start today against the Texans, with Carson Wentz not quite ready to return from his finger injury. And as one source explained, Heinicke will remain the starting QB until he's not. In other words, until there is no choice but to make a move.

Heinicke took over for Wentz after Week 6 and has led a stunning turnaround for Washington, winning three of his last four games including a shocking double-digit win over the previously undefeated Eagles on the road. He hasn't been perfect, but the right blend of toughness and knowing when to go for it has been what the Commanders have needed.

Edited November 20, 2022 by Skinsinparadise

[KDawg]

Only viable options to me are Howell or a rookie. Spending big on another retread typically doesn’t pan out for us. Nothing against Carr’s ability. I think he’s a quality QB and much better than our current crop. Just seems to be a bad avenue for us.

 

But I’m not against him. 

[Skinsinparadise]

14 minutes ago, KDawg said:

Only viable options to me are Howell or a rookie. Spending big on another retread typically doesn’t pan out for us. Nothing against Carr’s ability. I think he’s a quality QB and much better than our current crop. Just seems to be a bad avenue for us.

 

But I’m not against him. 

 

Normally I’d agree. I am ok with the draft but right now wondering whom though? I’d want to see some Howell before riding that train completely.

 

Judging by posts I am higher on this roster than you so I think that’s our major difference. I don’t want to waste this defense 

Edited November 20, 2022 by Skinsinparadise

[goskins10]

10 minutes ago, KDawg said:

Only viable options to me are Howell or a rookie. Spending big on another retread typically doesn’t pan out for us. Nothing against Carr’s ability. I think he’s a quality QB and much better than our current crop. Just seems to be a bad avenue for us.

 

But I’m not against him. 

 

100% agree. Of the potential QBs to possibly be available, Carr is the only one I owuld consider but not at that crazy contract. But really I want either Howell or spmeone they draft. Unlike some others I am OK spending recourses if there is a guy they really like. Not really an RGIII trade maybe close to it. The team needs a franchise QB. Get that guy and worry abotu the rest after. This trying to take a short cut to a franchise QB with as you put it, another retread, is not working. 

[Skinsinparadise]

2 minutes ago, goskins10 said:

 

100% agree. Of the potential QBs to possibly be available, Carr is the only one I owuld consider but not at that crazy contract. But really I want either Howell or spmeone they draft. Unlike some others I am OK spending recourses if there is a guy they really like. Not really an RGIII trade maybe close to it. The team needs a franchise QB. Get that guy and worry abotu the rest after. This trying to take a short cut to a franchise QB with as you put it, another retread, is not working. 

I am Ok with trading up for a rookie. But it’s hard for me to think of who I would do it for in this draft.

 

If I had to pick one it would be Bryce Young but he’s not a trade the farm for type of QB IMO.

 

If I thought that the defense was overrated I’d be Ok with patiently working through a couple of more seasons of pain from the offense. But I strongly suspect they can win now by upgrading QB and O line 

[goskins10]

4 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Normally I’d agree. I am ok with the draft but right now wondering whom though? I’d want to see some Howell before riding that train completely.

 

Judging by posts I am higher on this roster than you so I think that’s a major difference. I don’t want to waste this defense 

 

I am fairly high on this roster and getting more there every game. But for me, that's the best time to use the draft and even future resources to get a young stud from the draft and use the CAP resources to build a team that supports them. The foundation is there. 

 

I am just really tired of these castoffs from other teams, no matter how good they look on paper. 

[Skinsinparadise]

Just now, goskins10 said:

 

I am fairly high on this roster and getting more there every game. But for me, that's the best time to use the draft and even future resources to get a young stud from the draft and use the CAP resources to build a team that supports them. The foundation is there. 

 

I am just really tired of these castoffs from other teams, no matter how good they look on paper. 

I get the point. For me I have a hard time looking at this theoretically. Who do I like in this draft? What do I think of this “retread”. I’ve trashed draft picks at QB and trashed veteran trades because of the specifics.

 

I am not saying I am right or wrong. I am just guessing but hey it’s what we do. If we end up picking in the late teens tough for me to envision what QB in this draft I am excited by or trade up assets for. 

 

I am more sick of drafting 2nd tier QBs in the first round than I am trading for veterans. But to me it is all about the specifics. 

[KDawg]

12 minutes ago, goskins10 said:

 

I am fairly high on this roster and getting more there every game. But for me, that's the best time to use the draft and even future resources to get a young stud from the draft and use the CAP resources to build a team that supports them. The foundation is there. 

 

I am just really tired of these castoffs from other teams, no matter how good they look on paper. 

I think we have a very middling roster from top to bottom. 2-3 high end guys, 3 above average starters, 3-4 developing guys,  2-3 perfect fit niche guys, 30ish middling guys ranging from okay starter to okay backup and 5 or so guys it wouldn’t hurt at all to part with. 
 

I don’t think paying Derek Carr is going to help us make that better. We need to re-sign, sign, and draft guys. Carr limits our ability to do that, sort of like Wentz. Except he’s a better QB. 
 

Payne is a must sign. 
 

But everything is situational based, right? If we trade Sweat for extra draft assets in THIS draft, then I’d be more inclined to give Carr a contract. If we trade Sweat for next year assets I’d be all about rolling with Howell and developing our line and trading up next year for a QB. If we don’t trade Sweat… ya. Not sure what avenue to go.

Edited November 20, 2022 by KDawg

[goskins10]

Just now, KDawg said:

I think we have a very middling roster from top to bottom. 2-3 high end guys, 3 above average starters, 3-4 developing guys,  2-3 perfect fit niche guys, 30ish middling guys ranging from okay starter to okay backup and 5 or so guys it wouldn’t hurt at all to part with. 

 

I think the roster is evolving and getting better as the games go along. I agree we don;t have many blue chip studs. But these guys are starting to come together. That Philly team is a very good football team we went toe to toe with them in every category. Same with Minn. Now it could all come crashing down and I will have once again gotten my hopes up for no reason. But this truly feels different. I relaly like the D and how they are flying to the ball. They are starting to play team def and out of reflex instead of thinking. That's when TOs happen, when they start playing on instinct within the system. They at least seem to be doing that. 

 

The Off is a quandry but the skill players are there. The Oline is getting better as they are getting a chance to play together. The first 6 weeks we had 6 different starting onlines. i think the last 3 or 4 gms has been the same starters. That makes a difference, especailly on the O and D lines. 

 

We will see how they finish. This is feeling eeily like last year. Start slow, have a nice run in the middle and fall apart down the stretch. We even had JD Mc go on IR like last year. But we didn't have B Rob and TH is a better version of himself than last year. He is still NOT the long term solution I don't care what the team does moving forward. But he is cleaning up what he can. 

 

 

[KDawg]

3 minutes ago, goskins10 said:

 

I think the roster is evolving and getting better as the games go along. I agree we don;t have many blue chip studs. But these guys are starting to come together. That Philly team is a very good football team we went toe to toe with them in every category. Same with Minn. Now it could all come crashing down and I will have once again gotten my hopes up for no reason. But this truly feels different. I relaly like the D and how they are flying to the ball. They are starting to play team def and out of reflex instead of thinking. That's when TOs happen, when they start playing on instinct within the system. They at least seem to be doing that. 

 

The Off is a quandry but the skill players are there. The Oline is getting better as they are getting a chance to play together. The first 6 weeks we had 6 different starting onlines. i think the last 3 or 4 gms has been the same starters. That makes a difference, especailly on the O and D lines. 

 

We will see how they finish. This is feeling eeily like last year. Start slow, have a nice run in the middle and fall apart down the stretch. We even had JD Mc go on IR like last year. But we didn't have B Rob and TH is a better version of himself than last year. He is still NOT the long term solution I don't care what the team does moving forward. But he is cleaning up what he can. 

 

 

I think our OL is abysmal. Still. DL is okay. Sweat is a close but no cigar guy most of the time. DTs are outstanding… both starters and depth. 
 

LB is okay. Davis is developing but there’s really nothing next to him. Including Holcomb. He’s a good NFL backup. 

Forrest and St-Juste are developing nicely. Fuller is not bad but not great. Curl is underrated and one of our high end guys. 
 

Offensively our TE room is still fairly suspect. Though I like Rogers. 
 

RB is good now that we have someone to take mileage off of Gibson. Gibson has been much more of a playmaker because of that. 
 

WR is solid for slots 1-3. 4-6 are inconsistent but most teams deal with that so overall good. QB is a below average spot. OL is poor. 
 

We are a middling roster that has some pieces but can also very easily lose some pieces if we don’t navigate the cap properly.

[FootballZombie]

7 hours ago, Est.1974 said:

No trade clause in his contract reportedly. They can’t just move him on, not without him picking his destination anyway.

 

Oooo Good catch. I didn't know that.

 

That is a a game changer.

 

I take back what I said. Carr getting cut would probably be more likely than a trade.

[Skinsinparadise]

56 minutes ago, KDawg said:

 

We are a middling roster that has some pieces but can also very easily lose some pieces if we don’t navigate the cap properly.

 

If this is middling roster, why aren't you higher then on Heinicke?  With that premise,  we are winning with him and a mediocre roster.  It would be a miracle for a below average QB to win with a so so roster -- wouldn't it mean Heinicke might be an upper tier QB?

 

Personally, I think the defense is legit.   I am high on not just the DTs but edge too if Chase finds his rookie form.  Toohill and Obada are good too.  St. Juste is evolving.  Davis getting better.  Safeties good, too.  As you know, no roster is loaded everywhere.  The defense has plenty of horses IMO.

 

Playmakers are good -- Dotson, Samuel, Terry, Robinson, Gibson.  O line and QB needs to be fixed.  And Masko has done a nice job the first two seasons on that front -- they can fix it IMO.

Edited November 20, 2022 by Skinsinparadise

[formerly4skins]

6 hours ago, Califan007 The Constipated said:

I'm sorry, but I miss Wentz' arm lol...love Heinicke's intangibles, but really wish we had Wentz's arm in the offense.

 

 

 

 

Wentz absolutely has a cannon...but I think his advantage there over TH is pretty much offset by the deficiency between his ears. 

[Califan007 The Constipated]

3 hours ago, KDawg said:

What if I told you one of our other quarterbacks has a Wentz type arm? But wait… THERE’S MORE! He’s also got Heinicke mobility and, based on his season with the worst OL in college football last year he also has some serious moxie!

 

But he’s not starting until next year, so…

 

If "moxie" was his only intangible I'd be down with it lol...