The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[Conn]

23 minutes ago, Skintime said:

If he'd come out a year earlier he was the top pick.

Those types of draftnik projections a year out don’t matter. The same thing was said about Matt Barkley and many others. And I’m not down on Howell, it’s just the truth. 

 

9 minutes ago, FLSkinz83 said:

 

The only QB I like in the 1st round is Bryce Young and he's short as well.    Howell was a 1st round prospect in 2021.  He showed me a lot in preseason.   

I don’t care, none of that matters. I’m not saying any of this to talk down about Howell, I like him and have hopes for him. But unless he starts the majority of the season,  starting soon, we won’t know nearly enough about him by the end of the season to justify not taking a QB with a high pick—again, if we finish with a high pick. Betting on Howell with good 1st round prospects staring us in the face (in this hypothetical) would be the height of arrogance and extremely poor decision making. 
 

If there isn’t a worthy QB there or if we’re not picking in the top-10, then that’s potentially a different story. 

Edited October 12, 2022 by Conn

[Warhead36]

There is no way I'm not taking a QB in next year's draft unless Howell is like RG3 2.0 right from the get go and even then I'm not sure. Worst comes to worst we have two talented young QB prospects. There are worse fates. 

[FLSkinz83]

7 minutes ago, Conn said:

Those types of draftnik projections a year out don’t matter. The same thing was said about Matt Barkley and many others. And I’m not down on Howell, it’s just the truth. 

 

I don’t care, none of that matters. I’m not saying any of this to talk down about Howell, I like him and have hopes for him. But unless he starts the majority of the season,  starting soon, we won’t know nearly enough about him by the end of the season to justify not taking a QB with a high pick—again, if we finish with a high pick. Betting on Howell with good 1st round prospects staring us in the face (in this hypothetical) would be the height of arrogance and extremely poor decision making. 
 

If there isn’t a worthy QB there or if we’re not picking in the top-10, then that’s potentially a different story. 

 

If We're out of it after game 11, I see Howell starting the last 6 games.  That's a good sample size.  

[Conn]

5 minutes ago, FLSkinz83 said:

 

If We're out of it after game 11, I see Howell starting the last 6 games.  That's a good sample size.  

Not really. Not enough to stake your future on if you have a top-5 pick and some good QB prospects. 
 

Howell could hypothetically be the next Brady, but we wouldn’t know that in 6-8 games. It would be insanely reckless to extrapolate his performance too far, even if he plays well. Unless he comes in and looks like a total star and takes the league by storm, it’s just not a risk you can take if you end up with a top 5-10 pick and like the QBs. 

Edited October 12, 2022 by Conn

[FLSkinz83]

5 minutes ago, Conn said:

Not really. Not enough to stake your future on if you have a top-5 pick and some good QB prospects. 
 

Howell could hypothetically be the next Brady, but we wouldn’t know that in 6-8 games. It would be insanely reckless to extrapolate his performance too far, even if he plays well. Unless he comes in and looks like a total star and takes the league by storm, it’s just not a risk you can take if you end up with a top 5-10 pick and like the QBs. 

 

There isn't a Burrow or Herbert in this draft.   

[Conn]

1 minute ago, FLSkinz83 said:

 

There isn't a Burrow or Herbert in this draft.   

There was barely a “Burrow” yet in October of Burrow’s own draft. Herbert was no sure thing even on draft day and was seen as a boom/bust risk. Get back to me in February when we have more info—both about Howell and the QB class. But talking about choosing Howell over a highly drafted rookie QB already is wildly irrational. And again, I like the dude and look forward to seeing him play, likely  later this season like you said. 

[tomwvr]

9 minutes ago, Conn said:

Not really. Not enough to stake your future on if you have a top-5 pick and some good QB prospects. 
 

Howell could hypothetically be the next Brady, but we wouldn’t know that in 6-8 games. It would be insanely reckless to extrapolate his performance too far, even if he plays well. Unless he comes in and looks like a total star and takes the league by storm, it’s just not a risk you can take if you end up with a top 5-10 pick and like the QBs. 

We need more than a qb. Get the best qb in the class and put him behind our line and he turns into a bust really quick.

 

there is no quick fix, but if howell looks decent you fix the oline and the cb positions in this draft.

[Conn]

1 minute ago, tomwvr said:

We need more than a qb. Get the best qb in the class and put him behind our line and he turns into a bust really quick.

 

there is no quick fix, but if howell looks decent you fix the oline and the cb positions in this draft.

So we’re back to square -5 again? Nah, you get the QB as soon as you can with the highest pick you luck into, if we have a top 5-10 pick you have to consider it. We rarely draft high enough for a top guy at the position. So if that’s where we’re at, you take the swing if the right prospect is there. The rest you figure out between the rest of the draft and FA. You may not be in that position again for a very long time, as we’ve seen many times over the years. 

[tomwvr]

3 minutes ago, Conn said:

So we’re back to square -5 again? Nah, you get the QB as soon as you can with the highest pick you luck into, if we have a top 5-10 pick you have to consider it. We rarely draft high enough for a top guy at the position. So if that’s where we’re at, you take the swing if the right prospect is there. The rest you figure out between the rest of the draft and FA. You may not be in that position again for a very long time, as we’ve seen many times over the years. 

If we draft a qb we will be drafting top 5 again the next season. We have too many holes to think a qb will win for us.

 

[Conn]

7 minutes ago, tomwvr said:

If we draft a qb we will be drafting top 5 again the next season. We have too many holes to think a qb will win for us.

 

And yet that’s never how it’s gone for us in recent history, we don’t draft that high hardly ever—nevermind multiple seasons in a row. We have the weapons, we can prop up the OL in FA and the rest of the draft—if you have a top 5 pick, you have to be looking at QBs. I’m going to drop the discussion because going back and forth with multiple posters on the same topic is boring for everyone else to read, and I’ve made my point. Understand if you disagree.

Edited October 12, 2022 by Conn

[Renegade7]

Not against letting season play out on Wentz when seeing stuff like this (Wentz is #5 right now):

 

 

Edited October 12, 2022 by Renegade7

[88Comrade2000]

Howell has no long term future here after Ron is gone. New guy will bring in their own qbs.

[method man]

1 hour ago, skins island connection said:

 

 This season is old toast, nothing short of a total collapse of the division would give them a snowball's chance.

The issue is this; even IF they get a top QB in the draft, there's no one on the entire coaching staff who is an actual 'teacher' or groomer for said QB, so why bother?

Turner can't even make in-game adjustments, and even when they get into a groove the team is down by 2+ TDs and the defense is just playing to not get hurt. Rivera certainly isn't any type of offensive-minded coach, so the drafted QB will end up mentally scarred for life.

 

I'd argue that Zampese is. The issue though is Turner would try to shove his complicated scheme down a rookie's threat, which is no bueno. Again, Harvard grad Fitz and high book IQ Wentz have both mentioned issues with learning his scheme.

[FrFan]

 

The toothpaste has been put back into the tube. Let's move on, no more drama please.

 

[Chris 44]

2 hours ago, FrFan said:

 

The toothpaste has been put back into the tube. Let's move on, no more drama please.

 

Baghdad Bob had a bad day in front of the media too......led to worse days.

[Skinsinparadise]

8 hours ago, Conn said:

He’s a short 5th round QB. He could have all the potential in the world and it would still be insane not to use a high 1st (if we end up with one) on a good QB prospect if one is there. 

 

I like Howell but not to the extent of doing something odd which is being in the rare premium spot in the draft where you can take a QB without having to trade up, yet you go for a different position instead with that high pick.  So basically rerun what they did in the 2020 draft which Ron gets heavily mocked by his critics for doing and that is taking a pass rusher instead of QB. I'd need to see Howell this season to be sold.  I am not gambling on a maybe.  

 

Greg Cosell had a good point about him which is he thinks his drop to the 5th have much to do with its really rare for a 6 foot or under QB to succeed in today's NFL, Brees withstanding, at that height unless they have uber mobility -- he goes Baker Mayfield hasn't helped this case for the 6 foot and under guys.

 

The irony of skipping QB is it would likely be a pass rusher again if the idea is BPA.  Tough for me to see them passing QB and ALSO not taking Anderson or Carter who are arguably the top non-Qbs in this draft.  So it would be Ron doubling down again on D line -- this team has put enough premium on D line IMO.   If you are picking 1 or 2, don't think i am taking a LT like Johnson, he's good from what I've read but not that level good, you take elite level tackles that high like Trent if you reach for a tackle in the top 10 that's backfired on some teams.  But I admit I haven't really studied Johnson yet but from what I read i don't get the impression he's elite, ditto the tackle from NW.  Plus I think the weakness of this O line is guard not tackle. Kelee Ringo, CB, maybe but with the first or 2nd pick in the draft?  Feels a bit wild to me.

 

Josh Allen, Herbert, etc I think have helped make the case for QBs with size and tools.  That's why I gather Will Levis is getting hyped.  I get some people here think anyone of us understands the QB spot and offenses better than Ron's staff.  But his QB coach Zampese isn't considered a dunce.  He has a good reputation, made lemonade out of lemons with Dalton among other things.  

 

If we have a top 5 pick and he skips Qb AGAIN, Ron or whomever is here would get skewered for both skipping on that spot and reaching unless its the DE or DT at least based on the current perception of these players which granted could be wrong but will see.  I gather the only justification he can make is Carter and Will Anderson are that special and yes they'd tried to win with a killer D line in theory but he contends that it was still missing a piece.  But he will take some serious heat and ridicule when he does it, I gather. 

 

Nothing to do with my take of Ron but its that I've read multiple books that dive deep into QB, especially Arians book which I've read twice so I have my own thoughts about the spot right or wrong.  And my takeaway is special QBs are special for three reasons -- talent-work ethic-smarts.  You don't know how well they fare on that front until you have them in the building.  Herbert for example was seen a bit like Levis, nice tools but inconsistent.  But in the pros, coaches learned fast that the dude was smart and worked really hard.  No it wasn't that Anthony Lynn his offensive coach was so special and just made Herbert -- Lynn was fired after Herbert's rookie year, got hired by the Lions soon after then fired in a year after serving as offensive coordinator.   Herbert was just really damn good. 

 

The weapons here are good.  Its clear its not lost on Rivera that his O line sucks.  It was lost in the sauce because of the QB discussion as part of his comments but he basically called out the O line in those same comments.  I got no doubt the O line will be rebuilt.    I think Leno is good.  Cosmi ditto but he might be a better guard.  I don't know if Rouillier can be counted on to be healthy anymore.  They definitely need two guards or a RT and move Cosmi to guard.

 

I've watched Levis some, don't have an opinion on him yet.  I do like Bryce Young in spite of his size -- elusive as heck, off platform throws, accurate, super fast release.

 

 

https://www.profootballnetwork.com/nfl-draft-news-and-rumors-mailbag-week-6-2022/

 

Has either one of the “top quarterbacks” separated themselves from the pack so far this season?

Not a lot of separation yet, but if you talk with scouts, it seems that Will Levis of Kentucky is the signal-caller they are most enamored with. He’s a Josh Allen type in the sense he’s big, athletic, and has a major league arm 

Edited October 12, 2022 by Skinsinparadise

[Vandelay_Industries]

Wentz wasn't perfect by any means, he seems too nervous at times, not always accurate etc. But it's a bit unfair IMHO to write him off after these games, which some here are doing (with many of them being against him from the start and just waiting for the opportunity to label him as garbage).

 

I mean we have to take his situation into account as well. The Commanders have been one of the statistically worst offenses in the NFL for many years, that's certainly no coincidence. He does have a pretty good WR corps now, which undoubtedly helps, but on the other hand, the o-line is as bad as it's been in a long time. Including a 3rd string center who can't even snap correctly. The below averange running game isn't helping either (actually statistically one of the worst in the league), though hopefully it will improve with Robinson. And the defense produced only one turnover (and that was in the final seconds of the Jaguars game), which ist last in the league.

 

Plus he's on a new team, with new teammates, new coaching staff, and a completely different system than what he's been used to. If we compare him with other QBs who are in a new team (Wilson, Ryan, Mayfield, Mariota, Trubisky...), his performances certainly were not really worse overall, in several areas he actually was even the best so far.

 

We had already discussed the mostly negative national media perception of Wentz here. That's why Ron's statements (even if they were misinterpreted) were even more annoying, since the "quarterback" statement was used directly to fuel the discussions. The explanations and relativizations the next day are worthless, nobody reports about it and most football fans won't even notice it, the damage is already done.

[BringMetheHeadofBruceAllen]

One thing this team never seems to understand is that you have to invest in the O-line and the D-line. This team botched the O-line and are now paying the price...look how many careers were ruined by poor O-lines: Archie Manning, Bert Jones, Joe Ferguson, Dan Pastorini, Chad Pennington, David Carr, Chris Chandler, etc.

 

Tom Brady lost 2 of his 3 Superb Owls when the Giants' D-line overwhelmed the O-line.

 

Hard to read defenses when you're running for your life as soon as the ball is snapped. Of course, the OC should understand this and design plays that will take that into account...which I don't see Scott Turner doing.

[Zim489]

13 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Their offense isn't pro, that's true.  It's not been a good run for Ohio State guys.  

 

Some of Jeremiah's take

 

https://www.nfl.com/news/scouting-c-j-stroud-ohio-state-prospect-could-be-on-trajectory-similar-to-mac-jo

 

Biggest takeaway: Ohio State quarterback prospects are very difficult to evaluate. The offensive scheme is effective, the line play is solid and the wideouts are spectacular. Those circumstances don't provide a ton of tight-window opportunities for the passer. I know the NFL track record of Buckeye quarterbacks hasn't been stellar, but I believe you need to evaluate every player on an individual basis. I do think Stroud has a strong skill set and I've been told his intangibles are outstanding. He loves football and has a very sharp mind for the game.

He reminds me of: I see a lot of similarities to Mac Jones. Both guys see the field well, make good decisions and take what the defense gives them. They protect the football and understand how to manage the game. Neither player has outstanding arm strength or athleticism but both have excellent touch on the deep ball. Jones surprised a lot of evaluators with his success as a rookie and I could see a similar outcome in Stroud's future.

I don’t see the Mac similarities at all. Mac tk me was always the highest floor of the 5 and honestly it’s not close. I wasn’t surprised by his “success” as a rookie. He played decent. Also think that he’s just about at his ceiling. 
 

[goskins10]

9 hours ago, Conn said:

And yet that’s never how it’s gone for us in recent history, we don’t draft that high hardly ever—nevermind multiple seasons in a row. We have the weapons, we can prop up the OL in FA and the rest of the draft—if you have a top 5 pick, you have to be looking at QBs. I’m going to drop the discussion because going back and forth with multiple posters on the same topic is boring for everyone else to read, and I’ve made my point. Understand if you disagree.

 

No, you are 100% correct. The idea of you build a team then get a QB is the exact flawed appraoch that keeps us in this perpetual draft 10 to 17 mode where you can't really get any genrational talent so you are getting good but not tranformative players. 

 

You need a QB! That is priority #1! If Ron has not proved to us anything else he has proved you have to get a QB 1st. 

 

 

[HigSkin]

Just a refresher of Rivera thoughts about Howell after drafting him -

 

https://247sports.com/Article/Ron-Rivera-reveals-plan-for-Sam-Howell-Carson-Wentz-in-Washington-Commanders-QB-room-187182358/

 

Ron Rivera reveals plan for Sam Howell, Carson Wentz in Washington Commanders' QB room

 

 

Former North Carolina Tar Heels quarterback Sam Howell enters his rookie season with no pressure, according to head coach Ron Rivera, who said this week that the franchise wants the fifth-round pick to learn and develop under Carson Wentz and Taylor Heinicke. Howell slipped to Day 3 of the 2022 NFL Draft at No. 144 overall, a surprising fall considering his perceived stock entering his junior campaign with the Tar Heels.

 

Taking a quarterback may have not been Washington's original plan after trading for Wentz this spring, but Howell was available and the Commanders liked what they saw from him.

 

“To be up front, yes we were (surprised),” Rivera said this week on The Rich Eisen Show. “We actually had a pretty high grade on him. He was one of the quarterbacks that we really liked and I think if we had still been in the quarterback derby, he might’ve been a guy that we targeted. We felt really comfortable about drafting the guy there. We told him, ‘hey look, this is an opportunity to come in, no pressure to play right away so you can develop and grow.’

 

 

"And who knows, down the line at some point, you’re going to get that opportunity. But right now, we feel very good with Carson and very good with Taylor as our two quarterbacks.”

 

Rivera first noticed Howell's talent during the scouting evaluation process of other North Carolina prospects ahead of the 2021 NFL Draft.

 

"What was interesting was last year, we looked at both running backs and Dyami Brown as potentials for us, and so we really broke those guys down," Rivera said. "The one common thread obviously was Sam. We really felt, man, this dude was probably going to be one of the top dudes coming out based on 2020. And then when you take a step back and realize three of his offensive linemen were gone, his tight end was gone, two receivers, two backs ... guys that were part of him having this great year were gone.

 

"Going into 2021, new offensive line, new skill position, new backs for the most part ... this is a guy that still threw for over 3,000 yards, rushed for over 1,000, accounted for other 30 touchdowns and fell like he did. It was a surprise. We felt we couldn't pass up the value there."

 

Howell was the sixth quarterback selected and came a few picks after Western Kentucky's Bailey Zappe, who went late in the fourth round. Howell, however, is embracing his opportunity.

 

“Obviously, it’s been a whirlwind of a couple days, last couple days,” he said. “But for me, I was just trusting God throughout the whole process. I know that God has a plan for me and wherever that plan is going to be is going to be good. I’m super excited to join this wonderful football team led by coach Rivera, who I have so much respect for. This is a perfect spot for me. It’s the team I wanted to play for all along. So I’m super fired up.”

[ThomasRoane]

28 minutes ago, goskins10 said:

 

No, you are 100% correct. The idea of you build a team then get a QB is the exact flawed appraoch that keeps us in this perpetual draft 10 to 17 mode where you can't really get any genrational talent so you are getting good but not tranformative players. 

 

You need a QB! That is priority #1! If Ron has not proved to us anything else he has proved you have to get a QB 1st. 

 

 

 

I still think it's better to build the team first but I get what you're saying.  If you have a high draft pick and you like a QB you take him no matter what.  Keeping two quality QB's worked out well for Green Bay.  There's always going to be a market for a starting QB.  So, even if Howell gets his chance and balls out Washington should still take a QB if a good one is available in the draft.  

[NeverSurrender]

23 hours ago, Fan since a Fetus said:

 

I'm not blaming solely Wentz, it can be all of the above...line, Wentz's mechanics and a crappy play caller that allows no QB ownership at the line 

No one it absolved of blame. But it all starts with the Oline.  Bad blocking leads to bad mechanics which leads to bad play calling.  Im saying its not all on Wentz.  Sure he could play better but until the Oline is at least serviceable any QB would struggle, I would like to see how TH would do though. 

[Warhead36]

2 hours ago, BringMetheHeadofBruceAllen said:

One thing this team never seems to understand is that you have to invest in the O-line and the D-line. This team botched the O-line and are now paying the price...look how many careers were ruined by poor O-lines: Archie Manning, Bert Jones, Joe Ferguson, Dan Pastorini, Chad Pennington, David Carr, Chris Chandler, etc.

 

Tom Brady lost 2 of his 3 Superb Owls when the Giants' D-line overwhelmed the O-line.

 

Hard to read defenses when you're running for your life as soon as the ball is snapped. Of course, the OC should understand this and design plays that will take that into account...which I don't see Scott Turner doing.

We had two top 5 picks on our OL who are both All Pro caliber players and Ron got rid of them both.

 

The DL has seen major investment though. Literally first rounders for four years straight.

[NeverSurrender]

45 minutes ago, ThomasRoane said:

 

I still think it's better to build the team first but I get what you're saying.  If you have a high draft pick and you like a QB you take him no matter what.  Keeping two quality QB's worked out well for Green Bay.  There's always going to be a market for a starting QB.  So, even if Howell gets his chance and balls out Washington should still take a QB if a good one is available in the draft.  

Honestly I dont think it matters as long as you get the QB...