The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[Est.1974]

Rodgers wants GB to bring those free agent receivers back first and foremost.

[Going Commando]

59 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 Conversely, outside of Rodgers if he returns to GB our new version next year of murders row:  Mayfield, Kirk, Ryan, Tannehill might not be as tough?  I know we can't predict the toughness of a schedule to a tee but call me crazy that going from a season where you are facing just about every top 10 QB to one where you are facing almost none of them will be easier. 😀

 

Also we faced four straight weeks of healthy teams coming off extended rest against us when we were running a skeleton roster during the decisive part of last season.  That's what sunk us.  If that alone doesn't happen again, we are in great shape to make the playoffs next year.

 

I floated a theory that you need roughly 11 to 12 players who are either starters or key rotation players who are good enough that they get you 7+ AV in the season to have a playoff worthy team.  I use 7 AV as the minimum because I've found that milestone to roughly equate to legitimately good starter level production/very good rotation player if it's the kind of position that plays in a rotation (IDL, DB, RB, WR, etc.)  The more players over 7 AV you have the better, but pretty much every playoff team had at least 11 7+ AV players. 

 

We had 8.  That is not that far away, and it's not a stretch to think that we could easily pass that milestone next season with better health from Scherff, Jackson, Collins, Cosmi, Roullier, Thomas, Samuel, Young, and Sweat.  That is almost half of our starting roster--most of the best players on it--that we lost for significant time last year.  Plus we could get some development from guys like Bates and Jamin Davis, Fuller could bounce back, and we could reasonably expect to get that kind of production from our two top 50 picks in the draft, plus we have 31 million in cap space right now.  We could have Scherff walk and cut Collins and still get well over 11-12 7+ AV from better health of our extant players

 

You've taken my opposition to spending 3+ first round picks on Russell Wilson to mean that I'm not as high on this roster as you are, but I don't think that's actually the case.  I'm high on this roster and our chances to contend next season with better health, a few improvements, and stronger QB play.  But three firsts for Russell Wilson is a bad deal because that cost for any one player is a bad deal.  Attrition in this league is such that you are seriously jeopardizing your ability to maintain 11-12+ legitimately good players by losing all of your first round picks over the near term, especially if you also lose your cap space by taking on a huge QB salary.  QB wasn't really even the main problem with the team last season as we got 11 AV from our back up.  It's far too many resources spent on trying to get an upgrade at QB when there are more cost effective options waiting to be had: a first or second rounder in this year's draft class, or trading Heinicke and 42 plus a conditional for Matt Ryan.  That second option gets you almost as big of a marginal upgrade at QB as acquiring Wilson because the difference in their real value/career production is Wilson averages a little more than 1 extra AV per season.  Even if we make that trade for Matt Ryan and spend another first rounder on a QB heir in the '23 or '24 draft, we come out way ahead compared to what we'd have to spend to get Wilson. 

 

My point in not wanting to trade the farm for Wilson isn't that I don't think he is great or that I don't think the team right now is good enough to benefit from him.  It's that it will be far too difficult to keep the roster good if we commit that insane level of resources to upgrade the QB position.  It's just too much for anyone.  We would need to thread every needle--nail our later draft picks and FA signings and outcoach everyone and have every shot we take pan out to make up for losing all of our best assets to maintain the roster.  It's just not realistic.

[Skinsinparadise]

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

59 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

know some like @Voice_of_Reason ? (though he likes Rivera and doesn't want to see him go) and maybe a few others I gather might believe that Dan can get any coach just about he desires and nothing has changed from the past on the front. 

To be clear, I said I believe that DAN believes he can get any coach he wants because of his ability to consistently get a coach with a good reputation after a rotten situation.  
 

I do think the situation has changed, and there is a cumulative effect, and it’s going to be harder.  
 

I do think IF he gives Rivera 4 years and there are no mentions of any type of meddling, that will help his cause.  But I do think the hit his reputation has taken over the past 24 months will make things significantly harder in the future.  

[Skinsinparadise]

 

[Anselmheifer]

11 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

What’s their cap situation like? And their picks are likely to be lower than ours. I don’t know how much that changes things for us. 
 

Also, I hope the NFL doesn’t become a super team league like the NBA, where stars force/direct their way wherever they want. It makes me hate the NBA and I’ve just quit watching. 

[Ball Security]

18 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

To be clear, I said I believe that DAN believes he can get any coach he wants because of his ability to consistently get a coach with a good reputation after a rotten situation.  
 

I do think the situation has changed, and there is a cumulative effect, and it’s going to be harder.  
 

I do think IF he gives Rivera 4 years and there are no mentions of any type of meddling, that will help his cause.  But I do think the hit his reputation has taken over the past 24 months will make things significantly harder in the future.  

Jim Zorn?

[goskins10]

11 hours ago, Darth Tater said:

Of course, I'd say Ron is on strike two. If he doesn't hit it out of the park, he's probably a gonner.

 

Ron is not on any strikes. He is here at least 2 to 3 yrs even if he has losing seasons. He is the one thing that gives this team any kind of credibility and stability. He has been here just two years. The first one he made the playoffs with 4 QBs due to major injuries at the position. He had the team in position for a PO run this year with a back-up QB until injuries and a massive Covid outbreak took them out. And people can say all they want we do not know how the team would have done with Fitz who actually has can NFL arm and was coming off his best 3 yrs as a professional. They had to basically change everything to maximize Taylor's strengths and they almost made the POs again. 

 

Also, they just came through a name change which is a major transition. They need that stability. I do expect him to take a big swing at a QB this year. The question is major FA or a bridge with a draft pick. I have my preferences that I do not need to rehash. But Ron is not going anywhere unless he wants to leave or they remove Dan Snyder. in that case a new owner may want to bring in thier own staff. 

[Redskins 2021]

If Mayfield is available I think they will try to get him if all else fails. He is a name that can be used for the rebranding of team.

 

I think with rebranding they want some excitement with the team. He could maybe get the average fan interested. With his tv commercials he is seems popular. Do I think it's a good move don't know. He was bad last year but injuries were major reason. 

[TheBlueIndian]

13 minutes ago, goskins10 said:

But Ron is not going anywhere unless he wants to leave or they remove Dan Snyder. in that case a new owner may want to bring in thier own staff. 

this 

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, Going Commando said:

 

Also we faced four straight weeks of healthy teams coming off extended rest against us when we were running a skeleton roster during the decisive part of last season.  That's what sunk us.  If that alone doesn't happen again, we are in great shape to make the playoffs next year.

 

 

Agree.  I've made the point several times.  Some like to say other teams had to deal with COVID, too.  Yeah but there was two major differences, we had one of the worst cases of it but also we faced teams without COVID issues.  Heck Dallas had all their guys come back for those games, we were as undermanned as it got and they were as close to full strength as they can get it.  Perfect storm.  Yeah add 4 teams played us with extended rest mostly during that same period.

 

As for pure schedule luck, that season might have been the worst they've had in my lifetime.  Toughest schedule in the NFL according to DVOA metrics and if I recall according to Warren Sharps metrics we had the 2nd or 3rd worst schedule purely on the metric of playing teams with extended rest.

 

1 hour ago, Going Commando said:

But three firsts for Russell Wilson is a bad deal because that cost for any one player is a bad deal. 

 

I think our main difference is the value of an elite QB.  I think it's almost a miracle to get one on the market let alone hey its not worth the price.  It was wild that the Lions traded Stafford and he's very good but he's not elite.   It's not like this stuff happens typically, its really really rare.  So on the wild off chance it does, i am not passing on it.  

 

The good news for you is reading the tea leaves the Packers and Seahawks and teams with these franchise guys, it doesn't seem like they wanted to trade them even for three first rounders.

 

1 hour ago, Going Commando said:

 

QB wasn't really even the main problem with the team last season as we got 11 AV from our back up.  

 

I am not that into AV and we've debated this before so I don't want to debate it again.  So Heincke's AV grade doesn't move me one whit. 

 

IMO the main plot line for why this team is limited is Heinicke.  As for him being the main problem or not, yeah he's not the worst player on the roster.  But you aren't going to IMO become a consistent contender with a player like him. The Qb is the major chess piece on a chess board and by a country mile.  If your key piece on the chess board is below average, your team has a ceiling.   

 

If you look at the playoffs the SF is the exception, not the rule, and heck they realize it and decided to move on.  To be a serious contender you need to have a serious QB -- yeah exceptions exist every now and then but I am not banking my odds on being the outlier team.   

 

1 hour ago, Going Commando said:

It's far too many resources spent on trying to get an upgrade at QB when there are more cost effective options waiting to be had: a first or second rounder in this year's draft class, or trading Heinicke and 42 plus a conditional for Matt Ryan. 

 

As for this QB class.  I like the class more than most people but I still think there is a ceiling on all of these guys sans Willis and I think Wilis goes before our pick.  Do I think Corral, Pickett or Howell could be the next Derek Carr caliber wise?  Maybe.  Do I think they are the next Burrow, Russell Wilson, etc?  I'd say almost for sure, nope.

 

You keep suggesting Matt Ryan is going to be traded.  The irony is outside of you there are maybe a handful of people on this thread jazzed about him, me included.  Maybe jazzed is too strong of a word.  There are some here who like him (me included) and some who don't. 

 

As for Ryan who you like to bring up as if he's been declared on the market. Their owners said he's not being traded.   Granted he is 37 so maybe that's BS posturing on their end.  They'd have to take a whopping 40 million dollar cap hit to trade him.  I think there might be a better shot Wilson gets traded than Ryan.  i am not saying its impossible but I wouldn't count on Ryan hiting the market

 

As for trade bait, seems like teams do not see Heinicke as an attractive solution in a trade back, he's not even seen as a starter by some, based on what beat reporters have said they heard. 

 

1 hour ago, Going Commando said:

 Even if we make that trade for Matt Ryan and spend another first rounder on a QB heir in the '23 or '24 draft, we come out way ahead compared to what we'd have to spend to get Wilson. 

 

 

If we are playing with more likely realistic solutions versus what we'd like to happen.  Forgetting Ryan for argment's sake, the dude who is likely to be traded and maybe even to here is Jimmy G.

 

1 hour ago, Going Commando said:

 

My point in not wanting to trade the farm for Wilson isn't that I don't think he is great or that I don't think the team right now is good enough to benefit from him.  It's that it will be far too difficult to keep the roster good if we commit that insane level of resources to upgrade the QB position.  It's just too much for anyone.  We would need to thread every needle--nail our later draft picks and FA signings and outcoach everyone and have every shot we take pan out to make up for losing all of our best assets to maintain the roster.  It's just not realistic.

 

I get the point.  But I agree with Standig who said asking around talking to personnel people, he's never seen such a dramatic view of the QB spot.  It's amped up higher than ever from what he can tell talking to people around the league.  It's a league of haves and have nots as they put it as for QBs.

 

I think our main difference is you seem more comfortable living in the have not QB world and seeing if we get lucky and have more hope that we do get lucky.  For me, i am more cynical, I've just seen that movie play out for most of the last 30 years and I am tired of it.  I am not in the camp that those teams with elite QBs who are paying them 40 million are at a disadvantage because of how difficult it is to build the roster around it. 

Edited February 13, 2022 by Skinsinparadise

[KDawg]

-Our team is not far off being a consistent playoff team.

 

-Our team is far off from being a serious contender on a consistent basis without the QB.

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

4 minutes ago, KDawg said:

-Our team is not far off being a consistent playoff team.

 

-Our team is far off from being a serious contender on a consistent basis without the QB.

 

 

 

I somewhat agree with this.  They can be sort of a fringe early round type playoff team maybe for awhile like the Bengals were with a loaded roster and Dalton. they'd get knocked out in the first round every year but did get there.    

 

People talk about how hard it is to pay a QB.  It's almost as hard to pay a loaded roster without a QB -- when a bunch of these players come off their rookie deal without nailing the draft consistently. 

Edited February 13, 2022 by Skinsinparadise

[Zim489]

A Trubs + day two pick is the worst of both worlds. A complete misunderstanding of the position and the NFL today. Pick a guy and roll with him. 

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

To be clear, I said I believe that DAN believes he can get any coach he wants because of his ability to consistently get a coach with a good reputation after a rotten situation.  
 

I do think the situation has changed, and there is a cumulative effect, and it’s going to be harder.  
 

I do think IF he gives Rivera 4 years and there are no mentions of any type of meddling, that will help his cause.  But I do think the hit his reputation has taken over the past 24 months will make things significantly harder in the future.  

 

OK, cool got it.  So you were arguing how Dan would see it, not you.  I'd agree with that Dan is delusional as heck.   

Edited February 13, 2022 by Skinsinparadise

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, Anselmheifer said:

What’s their cap situation like? And their picks are likely to be lower than ours. I don’t know how much that changes things for us. 
 

Also, I hope the NFL doesn’t become a super team league like the NBA, where stars force/direct their way wherever they want. It makes me hate the NBA and I’ve just quit watching. 

 

 

Should be interesting.  Tampa with about 7 million in cap space and Wilson from what I recall would consume 19 million in cap space this year, the signing bonus would have to be swallowed by Seattle.

 

If I had to pick on a trend its teams that have tasted some success don't want to mess around in QB hiberation.  Seems like some aggressive rheotric coming from Pittsburgh and Tampa.

 

Denver and Carolina seem fed up with not having a QB, too.  Carolina is stuck with a cap hit from Darnold though along with lost draft picks.

 

The other team screaming desperation is ours truly.  Part of the reason why I am not that irate at Ron is he's off of his script from last year as Galdi put it.  Last year, he had some hey we can do this perhaps without a franchise Qb in the mix of his rhetoric.  This off season, he's saying this is a Qb league and we need to get one.  I got no doubt he feels the urgency on this.

 

Last year he did try to get Stafford and supposely Justin Fields but had a limit on what he was willing to pay.  This year he seems to be telegraphing they will pay whatever it takes.

 

Sadly though it looks like plenty of other suitors out there with the same approach and the maket might not end up hot. 

 

 

Edited February 13, 2022 by Skinsinparadise

[Darth Tater]

4 hours ago, Chump Bailey said:

 

That would be a mistake IMO. Ron deserves at least the same amount of time Gruden was allowed. While there may be an excellent candidate out there coordinator wise and unknown to most of us, all I keep envisioning being available are retreads and arrogant college coaches that think they have it all figured out. I still think Winston is the best option for us. Not that he's better than Wilson but we could acquire him and not be hamstrung in other areas. We could even trade down and take Ridder in such a scenario. Would that be better than just going hard after Wilson or similar? That's the 64K question. Depth is crucial to a team going all the way and that would be severely restricted if we choose to go hard after Wilson, Carr or whomever in that tier. Maybe we could pull it off regardless. I don't know.

Why? Gruden was a fail but besides a rough start, was mediocre until his last year. Gruden is evidence that 2022 should be Ron's last chance.  Not an opinion but fact, coaches that have 10 losses or more in both their first two seasons either make a huge jump in season 3, get fired or are bad to mediocre for that team until they get fired or not extended (our example is
Norv Turner). All but 1 non-expansion head coach had at least one 10+ win seasons within their first 3 years, got fired or were bad to mediocre for that team (Gruden is an example for us). Further, Kyle S. took SFO to the SB and to NFC-CG without a top tier QB (just a baller with average talent). Sean McVay took a team to the SB with a QB who looked like a bust just 3 years earlier and has shown he's not the guy.

[Redskins 2021]

50 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I somewhat agree with this.  They can be sort of a fringe early round type playoff team maybe for awhile like the Bengals were with a loaded roster and Dalton. they'd get knocked out in the first round every year but did get there.    

 

People talk about how hard it is to pay a QB.  It's almost as hard to pay a loaded roster without a QB -- when a bunch of these players come off their rookie deal without nailing the draft consistently. 

From your impressions on what you have heard

 

What more likely they reach on a JimmyG  or trade for a Baker Mayfield. Or go second rounder plus Trubisky, Marriotta, Winston.

 

I have heard Winston back to Tampa is possible. I imagine that want some kind of name for rebranding. 

Edited February 13, 2022 by Redskins 2021

[Andre The Giant]

Mort also just reported that Carson Wentz will be released or traded by the start of the league year.

 

Personally, I’m a hard No on both these guys, but interesting market info. 

Edited February 13, 2022 by Andre The Giant

[Redskins 2021]

6 minutes ago, Andre The Giant said:

Mort also just reported that Carson Wentz will be released or traded by the start of the league year.

 

Personally, I’m a hard No on both these guys, but interesting market info. 

 I dont think they can cut him tell they have someone else. This Murray thing is just about him and Kingsbury get extensions

 

Wentz as an fa maybe.

Edited February 13, 2022 by Redskins 2021

[Chump Bailey]

9 minutes ago, Darth Tater said:

Why? 

 

I just think it would reflect poorly on the organization Darth - something we do not need. Ron appears to be highly regarded by owners and players alike. We need his presence and he serves to mitigate the poison Snyder imbues. He should not have a short leash unless we absolutely crap the bed next season, something that is very unlikely I think. It's a process and I'm for letting it play out.

[Zim489]

15 minutes ago, Darth Tater said:

That would be a mistake IMO. Ron deserves at least the same amount of time Gruden was allowed

Completely disagree and a completely different Scenario. Keeping Gruden was solely because of Bruce and his self preservation. 

[Andre The Giant]

 

[Redskins 2021]

Who would trade for Wentz?

 

Who would Indy bring in?

Edited February 13, 2022 by Redskins 2021

[Zim489]

14 minutes ago, Chump Bailey said:

 

I just think it would reflect poorly on the organization Darth - something we do not need. Ron appears to be highly regarded by owners and players alike. We need his presence and he serves to mitigate the poison Snyder imbues. He should not have a short leash unless we absolutely crap the bed next season, something that is very unlikely I think. It's a process and I'm for letting it play out.

High Regard but is not producing results (hypothetically for year 3). Cant have 3 double digit loss seasons with no QB future and expect to not have your seat fiery hot when you have full control of nearly every aspect of the football ops. 

 

I dont expect him to go anywhere after this upcoming season. But if he skips out QB again this offseason and I were Dan I would be putting my foot down on Ron giving up any assets for the 2024 draft and onwards. You have had 3 plus years Ron to get a possible answer written down I cant let you mortgage the future because you keep kicking the can down the road. This 2023 season Ron is your show me. You have had 4 offseasons to build this team. Lets see what you have assembled. 

Edited February 13, 2022 by Zim489