The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[RandyHolt]

I am Dotson 280ZX and am in first as well. Howell is resting on my bench behind Allen...

[redskinss]

1 minute ago, Koolblue13 said:

My team is the Howellin Redwolves and I'm in first place!

Mine sucks, I drafted Terry, Sam and our defense but did it a little early so I could make sure I got them and the rest of my team is probably suffering a little because of it.

[mistertim]

2 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

Howell ain't Tua and we're not as good as the Dolphins(at least on offense), but we're building something.

 

I'd probably take Howell over Tua. Tua is good, but I don't think he's played a full season without injury since high school.

Edited September 20, 2023 by mistertim

[Drfustercluck]

1 hour ago, Koolblue13 said:

My team is the Howellin Redwolves and I'm in first place!

My team is called Papa Sharts. Guess what place I'm in? 🤪

[Warhead36]

26 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

I'd probably take Howell over Tua. Tua is good, but I don't think he's played a full season without injury since high school.

Tua is playing at an MVP pace right now and lit it up last year before his injuries. I'll give you that he seems a bit injury prone, but at his best he's shown a lot more than Howell so far. And that's nothing against Howell.

[wit33]

 

2 hours ago, RandyHolt said:

I am Dotson 280ZX and am in first as well. Howell is resting on my bench behind Allen...

 

Not this week, right?

[mistertim]

1 hour ago, Warhead36 said:

Tua is playing at an MVP pace right now and lit it up last year before his injuries. I'll give you that he seems a bit injury prone, but at his best he's shown a lot more than Howell so far. And that's nothing against Howell.

 

He's not a bit injury prone, he's injury riddled. Him not having a single season without injury since high school was factual, not an exaggeration. He's just incredibly brittle, as he's had a whole host of various injuries over his career. What's the point of buying a $400,000 Ferrari if it breaks down every other day?

[MartinC]

More praise for Howell. He’s becoming a thing!

https://www.nfl.com/news/2023-nfl-offensive-player-rankings-week-3-three-offensive-surprises-who-aren-t-f

 

[Bifflog]

Hot of the presses...

 

 

On a side note, I am addicted to this channel.  I was glued to the ever increasing length Justin Fields horror shows....

Edited September 21, 2023 by Bifflog

[Going Commando]

17 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

Howell ain't Tua and we're not as good as the Dolphins(at least on offense), but we're building something.

 

I don't think Tua is special overall.  He's ultra accurate throwing between the numbers, but that's his only trait that is special.  His arm talent is below average, he's not particularly athletic or good throwing off platform and off schedule, and he's not that strong or fast.  His production is massive because of the system he plays in.  McDaniel is heand shoulders the best offensive play designer and caller for scheming his receivers wide open, and they have the two fastest and most explosive receivers in the NFL.  Half the QBs in the NFL could match Tua's production playing in that situation.  His reads and throwing windows are easy mode.

 

Howell won't produce at quite the same rate.  Bieniemy isn't as good as McDaniel, Terry and Jahan aren't as good as Waddle and Hill, Sam isn't as far along in his development as Tua, and our OL isn't quite as good as theirs.  But Sam is a bigger talent than Tua, our offense is still pretty stacked, our running backs are better than theirs and our run game can be better, Bieniemy is still one of the elite offensive coaches of the league, and our defense is better than theirs.  QBs get judged based on passing game production and wins, and Sam is in a situation where he can put up numbers and win 12 games this year.  That'll put him on top ten lists.

[HigSkin]

Good Morning Football on NFLN just had a segment called "Sam Wagon". 

 

Super positive but they don't have video out on it yet.

[DWinzit]

49 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

 

I don't think Tua is special overall.  He's ultra accurate throwing between the numbers, but that's his only trait that is special.  His arm talent is below average, he's not particularly athletic or good throwing off platform and off schedule, and he's not that strong or fast.  His production is massive because of the system he plays in.  McDaniel is heand shoulders the best offensive play designer and caller for scheming his receivers wide open, and they have the two fastest and most explosive receivers in the NFL.  Half the QBs in the NFL could match Tua's production playing in that situation.  His reads and throwing windows are easy mode.

 

Howell won't produce at quite the same rate.  Bieniemy isn't as good as McDaniel, Terry and Jahan aren't as good as Waddle and Hill, Sam isn't as far along in his development as Tua, and our OL isn't quite as good as theirs.  But Sam is a bigger talent than Tua, our offense is still pretty stacked, our running backs are better than theirs and our run game can be better, Bieniemy is still one of the elite offensive coaches of the league, and our defense is better than theirs.  QBs get judged based on passing game production and wins, and Sam is in a situation where he can put up numbers and win 12 games this year.  That'll put him on top ten lists.

Nice comparison breakdown with Tua, enjoy Sam in the conversation with guys like him and his greater potential!

 

Regarding the receiver talk, I do like Jahan and Terry over Waddle and Hill in one spot -  when it comes to techniques of route running. They aren't as dynamic but a nice combo for Sam to work with.

[HigSkin]

 

[KDawg]

I think the verdict is almost in with Fields and it looks like I missed with my Fields evals. The blaming the coaching stuff was weird. I think I get what he meant... He's in his own head because the coaches are teaching him to do something that goes against his normal pattern... so when he said, "Coaching" he didn't mean the coaches stunk.

 

But like with Rivera... you need to have some awareness of the things coming out of your mouth.

 

I'm happier with Howell than I would have been with Fields, though, anyways. Howell was one of my favorite QB prospects that had "franchise potential" to come out in the last bunch of years. Except for Buechele, of course.

[zCommander]

Why the 2022 NFL Quarterback Class Was Misjudged, Including Sam Howell and Brock Purdy.

 

Albert Breer opens the mailbag to answer your questions:

 

From Michael (@MBison705): Is it time to ask whether draft pundits/scouts underrated the 2022 QB class? While there doesn’t appear to be a future Mahomes/Burrow in the group, Pickett, Ridder, Howell and Purdy are showing that they are competent starters with the right talent around them.

 

Michael, I have two thoughts. And the first is that, yes, I think it’s fair to say that the 2022 class was probably at least a little underrated, and that’s probably a reaction to recent history. It’s no secret that quarterback, always the NFL’s most important position, has become even more important in recent years with changes to schemes, the rules and the sport in general. And that’s led to a lot of quarterbacks being overdrafted—so in years when there weren’t enough first-round passers to go around, the NFL would simply manufacture them.

 

That’s how Christian Ponder and EJ Manuel and even Daniel Jones (even if that one’s turned out O.K. in the long run) wind up going as high as they did, and how a lot of mistakes were made. The correction was always coming, and I think it came in a big way in 2022, when teams were hesitant on good-not-great prospects, with the thinking being it’d be better to tread water than go all in on a quarterback who’d never be enough to compete with guys such as Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow and Josh Allen.

 

Interestingly enough, I think that dynamic—the desire to just tread water rather than gamble on a guy you’re not all the way sold on—is part of how the Commanders’ Sam Howell and Falcons’ Desmond Ridder became starters in their individual circumstances.

 

My second thought? A guy drafted later in the first round (Kenny Pickett) or the third (Ridder), fifth (Howell) or seventh round (Brock Purdy) has a better chance of having a good team around him, and is probably not going to have the world asked of him right off the bat. That gives the quarterback in question a better chance at incremental growth.

 

Tom Brady is probably the best example of that you can find. No one was calling for him to play as a rookie. And when he came in for Drew Bledsoe, the Patriots didn’t put too much on his plate. By the time he was in the 2001 playoffs, he was two years removed from his final college game, and had a redshirt year and a year of starts under his belt.

 

Everything happened naturally, and gradually, and that allowed the player and team to keep growing over time (Aaron Rodgers is another good example).

 

And I say that as a guy that picked Purdy to lead his team to the Super Bowl, and Ridder and Howell to get their teams to the playoffs. Interestingly enough, their class, with just one first-rounder, has more guys starting now than the ballyhooed class of 2021, and its five first-rounders. Which, again, I think, reflects more than just the quality of the players involved, even if the ’22 class was misjudged by a lot of folks (myself included.)

 

https://www.si.com/nfl/2023/09/20/2022-nfl-quarterback-class-misjudged-sam-howll-brock-purdy-mailbag

[philibusters]

42 minutes ago, KDawg said:

I think the verdict is almost in with Fields and it looks like I missed with my Fields evals. The blaming the coaching stuff was weird. I think I get what he meant... He's in his own head because the coaches are teaching him to do something that goes against his normal pattern... so when he said, "Coaching" he didn't mean the coaches stunk.

 

But like with Rivera... you need to have some awareness of the things coming out of your mouth.

 

I'm happier with Howell than I would have been with Fields, though, anyways. Howell was one of my favorite QB prospects that had "franchise potential" to come out in the last bunch of years. Except for Buechele, of course.

 

I don't think he was being malicious.  I think most players that bust don't expect to bust and they go through a stage where they realize they are not great NFL players, but it doesn't happen at once, they start to realize it, but go through stages of denial.   I think Fields is going through a stage of denial.   He is thinking back to Ohio State where he had Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, and Jaxon Smith-Ngiba and the best O-Line in the conference and thinking back then my coaches were not giving me all these to track, things were simpler, and if things were more like that in Chicago, I'd be great again.  But what he had at Ohio St., is the equivalent of Tyreek Hill, Justin Jefferson, and Cooper Kupp as your slot behind the Eagles O-Line from last year.  Its playing on easy mode.  But I think he is in that denial stage, where he is refusing to accept he is not good.   He needs to accept he is not good  if he will ever develop into a starting QB so that he'll be driven to improve.

 

The one thing Chicago did not do, that they could have, is 100% embraced his running ability and hired Greg Roman to be the OC after Baltimore fired him.  In that type of system, Fields would be a fine starter.  Probably not Lamar Jackson level, but a QB that can get a team to the playoffs.   The Bears did not go that route and if Fields in going to succeed in his current environment he is going to have to become a better passer within the structure of the offense.

Edited September 21, 2023 by philibusters

[mhd24]

8 minutes ago, philibusters said:

 

I don't think he was being malicious.  I think most players that bust don't expect to bust and they go through a stage where they realize they are not great NFL players, but it doesn't happen at once, they start to realize it, but go through stages of denial.   I think Fields is going through a stage of denial.   He is thinking back to Ohio State where he had Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, and Jaxon Smith-Ngiba and the best O-Line in the conference and thinking back then my coaches were not giving me all these to track, things were simpler, and if things were more like that in Chicago, I'd be great again.  But what he had at Ohio St., is the equivalent of Tyreek Hill, Justin Jefferson, and Cooper Kupp as your slot behind the Eagles O-Line from last year.  Its playing on easy mode.  But I think he is in that denial stage, where he is refusing to accept he is not good.   He needs to accept he is not good  if he will ever develop into a starting QB so that he'll be driven to improve.

 

The one thing Chicago did not do, that they could have, is 100% embraced his running ability and hired Greg Roman to be the OC after Baltimore fired him.  In that type of system, Fields would be a fine starter.  Probably not Lamar Jackson level, but a QB that can get a team to the playoffs.   The Bears did not go that route and if Fields in going to succeed in his current environment he is going to have to become a better passer within the structure of the offense.

He should emulate the mindset of Geno Smith who bounced around before finding a home in Seattle.  I was reading about how Geno embraced the backup role and worked his tail off to improve.  That was noticed by everyone in Seattle and why they astutely traded Wilson

[Conn]

1 hour ago, KDawg said:

I think the verdict is almost in with Fields and it looks like I missed with my Fields evals. The blaming the coaching stuff was weird. I think I get what he meant... He's in his own head because the coaches are teaching him to do something that goes against his normal pattern... so when he said, "Coaching" he didn't mean the coaches stunk.

 

But like with Rivera... you need to have some awareness of the things coming out of your mouth.

 

I'm happier with Howell than I would have been with Fields, though, anyways. Howell was one of my favorite QB prospects that had "franchise potential" to come out in the last bunch of years. Except for Buechele, of course.

I think it is likely that Fields is ruined at this point, but you can also see watching him that they destroyed his footwork. I saw a whole series of tweets with video clips about this but his drops and footwork are slower and less well-timed now than they were as a rookie. He’s definitely thinking too much or they tried to tinker with his footwork/mechanics too much. On top of his problems actually reading a defense, his foundational basics are falling to **** in a way they weren’t in the past.

 

And clearly that’s a dysfunctional building to some degree, so while his presser was unfortunately Rivera-adjacent in its foot-in-mouthness, the DC just resigned due to an investigation he’s allegedly undergoing at home and the coaching staff in general seems to be a mess. 
 

Meanwhile, he does have WR’s running open that he’s not seeing, he’s taking sacks that nobody should, and he generally looks like he’s playing blindfolded. At the same time, the coaching staff is no longer utilizing designed QB runs to help him build off his precious strengths. So not sure where the blame lies but yeah currently his development seems to be dead and he’s getting frustrated in the media, which is not going to help him at all. 

[Koolblue13]

The great thing about the Bears right now, is I wanted to draft Bagent really badly and he's their only other QB, so I'm gonna get to see him play soon.

[DWinzit]

5 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

The great thing about the Bears right now, is I wanted to draft Bagent really badly and he's their only other QB, so I'm gonna get to see him play soon.

I really liked him too, but he will be ruined if just thrown to the wolves right now also. 

 

The Bears fans will be chanting for Mitch T again 

[philibusters]

I think Bagent was likely a developmental guy and they would sign a Carson Wentz before they went to him, but you never know.

[The Consigliere]

On 9/18/2023 at 10:00 AM, Voice_of_Reason said:

 

Anybody who needed to hear this from Grant Paulsen is a damn fool.  

 

No.  We shouldn't have. Hindsight being 20/20, the Bears are regretting trading up for Fields.  

 

Lawrence - Would trade

Z. Wilson - Screws his mom's friends, can't play football, Hard Pass

Lance - Couldn't beat out any QB on SF's team. Hard Pass

Fields - Howell is a better passer after 3 games.  Pass.

Mac Jones - Inconsistent at best.  Makes some plays.  But had more time to develop.  Push (for now but I think Howell will be better.)

Trask, Mond - Pass

Davis Mills - Pass

Book - Who?

Ehlinger  - Pass

Pickett - Too early to tell.  

Ridder - Too early to tell. 

Willis - Can't beat out Tannehill in Tenn.  Thor Nystrom bet that the NFL was wrong on Willis.  So far, they're not.  Pass.

Corral - Hard Pass

Zappe - Hard Pass

Oladokum - Hasn't played

Thompson - Hasn't Played

Purdy - For now, Push, but Purdy could develop into an elite QB.  

 

 

The hits he takes this season will go down as he gets through his reads faster.  I am not going to do this, I'm sure some analytic site has it, but his time to pressure vs. time to throw, is off.  He waits that extra .5 second a lot of times, and pressure gets there when if he let it go that split second faster, he'd have a cleaner pocket with no hit.  

 

He'll learn.  

 

 

I pretty much disagree across the board except for most of the evaluations. To me, a guy who wanted to take Howell in round 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 before the draft (though w/his valuation clearly slipping, I was fine with us passing on day 1), the way we got him is not best practices, it's blind luck. 

 

It's kind of like Bill Walsh and Joe Montana. Yeah he was smart enough to take him, but you know what? He had Steve Dils ahead of him in that draft and would've taken Dils over Montana. The right move was to be taking Montana period, the sooner, the better, but if you knew the tea leaves meant you could wait a bit, so be it, so long as you didn't lose him.

But lets be straight here, #1 him falling that far was luck, and #2 expecting to find potential franchise QB's on day 3 is a fools errand of the highest order. You get about one of these guys, sometimes 2 a decade, out of literally what, 75-100 QB selections on day 3 (spit balling). That aint best practices, that aint a way to solve the most criticial acquisition based football problem. You can't rely exclusively on luck, with a tiny bit of evaluation mixed in. The #'s are in, the way to get QB's is clear. Relying on day 2 options is risky as hell and has an enormous failure rate, waiting till day 3 is even crazier. 

 

I think it's absolutely fantastic that this happened for us. We got a guy with basically a top 10-35 eval the summer before his final year at UNC at 144 overall. That's insanity and it was the right decision at that point in time. I celebrate it through and through, but it's also quite a bit of blind luck, and not really repeatable in any meaningful level.

I get that you preface much of this with "hindsight," but I just want to underline, if you can draft a QB that has franchise QB upside, and you don't have one in house? You always do it 100 times out of 100. It's what we should have done in 2020, and 2021. It was an enormous mistake not to do so. We lucked out, and great, but you simply can't depend upon that kind of good fortune as a plan. If you miss on a Fields, a Mac Jones or whomever, you try again, until you get it right, simple as that. 

 

We've been trying to solve this problem for 30 years through every other method other than that (save 1994 and 2012) and our misery over the ensuing 4 decades is directly connected to that, and to Snyder (of course). If we've got him, great, we should continue taking swings at prospects with profiles like that on day 2 and day 3, but it aint a way to solve that problem with anything remotely like best practices and a reasonable chance of success. 

[The Consigliere]

On 9/19/2023 at 1:24 AM, Califan007 The Constipated said:

 

SUNDAY'S BIGGEST SURPRISE

 

Sam Howell shows flashes of being The Guy. The Commanders have been searching for a quarterback for a few years now. Howell is starting to look like the guy who finally can ease all that pain. He found himself down, 21-3, in Denver and played well enough -- throwing for 299 yards and two touchdowns -- to help Washington pull out a 35-33 win. There weren't a ton of people who would've picked Howell to be an early surprise. Right now, he's blossoming under the tutelage of offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy and leading a team that is 2-0.

 

https://www.nfl.com/news/the-first-read-five-burning-questions-off-week-2-plus-risers-sliders-week-3-s-mo

 

 

 

 

 

Maybe he went to Kirk Cousins' QB camp over the summer lol...

 

 

 

 

Meanwhile there are some of us who snuck him in at the back end of rookie drafts for dynasty on every 2QB team, and some 1QB teams (this guy). Not one of those guys that guys from my team, on my fantasy teams, fantasy is business to me (and fun), but w/Howell, it was a no brainer to draft and stash him, particularly in Superflex/2 QB, if you played Dynasty. I have zero shares of any QB from the '22 class other than Howell (did draft Willis late on a few for dual threat upside but have since cast him off). No interest in any of the others who typically went in rounds 1 or 2 of rookie drafts. Howell was available in round 4 and sometimes as a UDFA. NICE.

 

I keep trying to use a governor to tamp down my enthusiasm, but it is hard. For now anyway, he definitely looks like the best of the '22 class along with Purdy, and one of the better to come out in recent years. Wild to think that the best QB's in that class could both be very, very late picks. A true rarity. Trying to remember who else since Cousins has hit in that fashion?

On 9/19/2023 at 3:27 AM, KDawg said:

For the first time in a long time around here… you and I are on the same page. I don’t mind him running, but that shouldn’t be his go to. He is excellent at keeping his eyes downfield.

 

He can improve internal clock, and will, but that takes time. 

Kind of in the same place. I think it's clear in this day and age that running is fundamentally a huge asset, but knowing when to run and when to let plays develop for another .5-1 second is something hopefully experience will teach. The ability to get yards in little clumps as a runner, rather than to be a statue back there w/no dual threat skill set has legit value, the discernment to know when to do it basically cubes that value. 

[The Consigliere]

On 9/19/2023 at 6:41 AM, Skinsinparadise said:

I am still in Denver but leaving soon. When am back I’ll post what it looked like at the game. The live look helps my perspective because I can lock in on a unit or 2 and on offense I was watching mostly Sam and the O line.

 

My cliff notes version of it for now echoes some of the points made here,

 

Sam can make some wicked throws, all three levels, out routes, in routes. I think his go to screen that works feeds better off of delayed routes.

 

And his accuracy is very good and consistent especially when you give him time. Hits receivers in stride except for some of the screens early in that game.  On the draft thread before he came out I cited his pocket presence as my top concern. 
 

Watching that game I can see his peripheral vision is better on the right side which makes sense considering he’s right handed.  For him giving him a stud LT would be a godsend. He needs that blind side help.

 

He’s tough as heck in the pocket and likes to climb the pocket. He’s not skittish even a whit. Which is great. But considering that variable please build him a good O line. I hate the conversations about having a passsble O line and is it bad, below average or just average? How about instead good or great next year? 
 

He will hang on to the ball because he’s fearless. Give him an O line unit which can play to that double edge sword strength and weakness but it’s mostly a strength.

 

I think Howell looked great. But I am worried that they were facing pedestrian at best D lines.  I wonder what happens when they face good ones.

 

To my eyes it looked Denver played it like the Cards did which is rush 4, 7 in coverage and blitz on occasion especially when they got in field goal range. 

I know it's kind of crazy, considering that the trade deadline is far more quiet in the NFL than it is in other sports, but I wonder if they could find a legit, relatively young OL or two on teams clearly imploding and tanking for Caleb Williams, and simply trade for them? Maybe move a '24 3rd, and a '24 4th or something for an OL or two to stop the bleeding here plus add depth for inevitable cluster injuries that seem to hit us. Would be nice to not get him David Carr'd/Andrew Luck'd etc. 

 

I'm not interested in trading our 1st or second, but if we get a startable OL with long term upside in a trade, I'd do it in a second. I'd move Young, or picks or both. It has dual value because it helps Sam's development, and if Sam aint it, it sets us up with a better OL for our next QB we draft. It's well worth the effort. I very much doubt it happens though. 

[Warhead36]

6 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

I know it's kind of crazy, considering that the trade deadline is far more quiet in the NFL than it is in other sports, but I wonder if they could find a legit, relatively young OL or two on teams clearly imploding and tanking for Caleb Williams, and simply trade for them? Maybe move a '24 3rd, and a '24 4th or something for an OL or two to stop the bleeding here plus add depth for inevitable cluster injuries that seem to hit us. Would be nice to not get him David Carr'd/Andrew Luck'd etc. 

 

I'm not interested in trading our 1st or second, but if we get a startable OL with long term upside in a trade, I'd do it in a second. I'd move Young, or picks or both. It has dual value because it helps Sam's development, and if Sam aint it, it sets us up with a better OL for our next QB we draft. It's well worth the effort. I very much doubt it happens though. 

I'd be okay trading mid round picks for young OL with upside but definitely not trading Young. He's just getting back into game wrecking form and you don't trade a guy like that unless you're getting an All Pro franchise LT in return(and even then...).