The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[Stihl89]

6 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I get you are out on Howell.

 

But lets stick to pure anayltics.  Sam has had two of his better games as to PFF anayltics in his last two.   His last game was his best on that front.  He registered as having one of their best grades on big time throws and also in adjusted completion percentage and that's for the whole season.  

 

Any heed to a young QB in his first season getting better as he goes along or it doesn't matter?

I’m not “out” on Howell. I’m just don’t think he is going to be elite. There’s two tiers of teams in the league. Elite QBed teams and everyone else. The same 5-7 elite QBs will take most of the playoff spots whwre the rest will fight it out for the wild cards. 
 

Rather not go that route. This season imo will be the best chance at an elite QB prospect in likely years unless they decide to tank next year. Unfortunately the 25 draft isn’t looking good. 

[TradeTheBeal!]

7 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

2015 Kirk was pretty damn good and was a precursor to a guy who ended up developing into a fringe top 10 QB.

 

I'll take it.

I could be talked into Sam having a higher ceiling than Kirk.  The arm talent and mindset are superior and I’ve already seen Sam make plays off-script in the Red Zone that Kirk could/would never make.  Sam will likely never have Kirk’s durability and low-risk consistency tho.

[Skinsinparadise]

12 minutes ago, Stihl89 said:

I’m not “out” on Howell. I’m just don’t think he is going to be elite. There’s two tiers of teams in the league. Elite QBed teams and everyone else. The same 5-7 elite QBs will take most of the playoff spots whwre the rest will fight it out for the wild cards. 
 

Rather not go that route. This season imo will be the best chance at an elite QB prospect in likely years unless they decide to tank next year. Unfortunately the 25 draft isn’t looking good. 

 

If they were on a fast track to get Drake or Caleb, I'd be interested.  But they aren't and usually these level of prospects aren't traded.

 

I wasn't one of the Kirk haters here.  I'll take a good young QB.   My only issue with Kirk and I still have it with him is how he plays in big games.  He's not the train wreck that his critics accuse of him of being in the clutch but he's too up and down in those games for my taste.  If Howell is Kirk but with more mobility and a clutch gene - so in short even better, I'd take it. 

 

We've had garbage at QB.  Some act like we've been drinking fine wine but isn't it time for champagne for a change?  The way i see it we've barely touched fine wine let alone where is the champagne?  If I can't get the champagne sign me up for the fine wine.    We've been drinking $6 bottles of wine.  We've had mostly crap. 

 

Do what the Chiefs did live with some fine wine for whatever it takes, in their case 5 years and when you can find champagne pounce on it then.  Not saying, Howell's peak is fine wine.  I don't know.  But outside of his height, he has an above average arm, mobility and intangibles -- it doesn't feel like some crazy pipe dream that he ends up a top ten QB.  I don't know one way or another yet but nothing about his play sways me off of it.

 

I don't give a rats behind about his aggregate anayltics stats.  All I care about now is does he look better as the season progresses.  Right now its trending that way but will see.  8 games to go. 

Edited November 7, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

17 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I get you are out on Howell.

 

But lets stick to pure anayltics.  Sam has had two of his better games as to PFF anayltics in his last two.   His last game was his best on that front.  He registered as having one of their best grades on big time throws and also in adjusted completion percentage and that's for the whole season.  

 

Any heed to a young QB in his first season getting better as he goes along or it doesn't matter?

This is exactly what I mean when I say it’s really bizarre to be out on Sam.  It’s rare for anyone to come out and be gangbusters with no hiccups from the jump.  Beyond that, we are under no pressure to decide on him today yet some folks have to plant their flag for the sake of planting it.

[BRAVEONTHEWARPATH93]

11 minutes ago, Stihl89 said:

I’m not “out” on Howell. I’m just don’t think he is going to be elite. There’s two tiers of teams in the league. Elite QBed teams and everyone else. The same 5-7 elite QBs will take most of the playoff spots whwre the rest will fight it out for the wild cards. 
 

Rather not go that route. This season imo will be the best chance at an elite QB prospect in likely years unless they decide to tank next year. Unfortunately the 25 draft isn’t looking good. 

I think this is a very valid way to look at it. That’s why I’m hoping Sam really takes an even bigger jump to close the year out. 
 

But I hear you, man. I don’t agree with all your points but I understand this way of thinking. 

[KDawg]

1 minute ago, BRAVEONTHEWARPATH93 said:

I think this is a very valid way to look at it. That’s why I’m hoping Sam really takes an even bigger jump to close the year out. 
 

But I hear you, man. I don’t agree with all your points but I understand this way of thinking. 

His points would be much more well received if he didn’t **** on Howell every post. His post you quoted was much more reasonable. 
 

 

[illone]

5 minutes ago, TradeTheBeal! said:

I could be talked into Sam having a higher ceiling than Kirk.  The arm talent and mindset are superior and I’ve already seen Sam make plays off-script in the Red Zone that Kirk could/would never make.  Sam will likely never have Kirk’s durability and low-risk consistency tho.

 

 

Sam has something that Kirk never really had until this year... Moxy.  The dude is kind of a gamer.  Kirk is more process oriented, and hits the books hard. Nobody is more prepared than Kirk. Issue being he has the x's and o's down pat, but when those x's and o's move differently than expected, he isnt as good.

 

I'm a huge fan of Kirk the guy, but just cant rely on him to win the big one like you said.

 

If Sam studies like Kirk and gains a deep understanding of the x's and o's, he will be a top 5-10 QB in the NFL because it appears he has intangibles that Kirk just never had. 

[Skinsinparadise]

6 minutes ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

This is exactly what I mean when I say it’s really bizarre to be out on Sam.  It’s rare for anyone to come out and be gangbusters with no hiccups from the jump.  Beyond that, we are under no pressure to decide on him today yet some folks have to plant their flag for the sake of planting it.

 

Agree.

 

lol, years ago it used to be the thought of give a QB three years to see what they got.  Now some are impatient with young QBs in their first season as a starter.  For me, I can give a rats ass that he struggled against the Bills and the Giants weeks back and that brings some of his anayltic scores down.  I care about his progression.

 

Heck some thought Trevor Lawrence was the perfect QB prospect years back.  He struggled some in year 1.  I think Sam is going to end up with better stats than Trevor in year 1 and plenty of other ballyhooed young prospects.

 

If he keeps on this track, why not enjoy it versus pine for "grander" dreams.    Not all these ballyhooed QB prospects have prospered in the NFL.  We got a potential one right here, am enjoying it.  Will see if it lasts but it feels good to me right now.

 

Like you I am going to the Giants game, and I am looking forward to it specfically to see Sam.  I haven't felt that way for a QB here in a long time.  

Edited November 7, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[BRAVEONTHEWARPATH93]

Also, the biggest issue with a QB like Sam (or Kirk) will always be money. Luckily we have a fair bit of time before that becomes a problem. So I think we can kinda just let it play out. Go big and improve the roster next offseason and let’s go compete 

[Skinsinparadise]

2 hours ago, wit33 said:

 

 

Part of the guaranteed money was paid out this season, which reduces the amount owed the following season.

 

It's 7-8 million spread out over two seasons, but he's not a 7-8 million per year player. The cap hit is 3 million this season and 5 million next.

 

This level of free agent provides organization ability to remain lean while continuing to explore ways to add talent, hopefully through the draft and not overpriced free agents (my opinion). The whole story isn’t written on Gates, he’s the type of dude that will bounce back even if it’s as a back up. 

 

Based on what I looked it 7 million is owed AFTER this season in guaranteed money.

Edited November 7, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

I’d like to just go on record and say that I also want an elite QB that leads our team deep into the playoffs every season.

 

I also want to win the lottery and have a poly marriage with my current wife and Margot Robbie.

 

Until then, I’ll have to find a way survive real life where I have a real job, married to one woman not named Margot Robbie.

 

 

[FootballZombie]

Most young QBs straight up suck. Its just that the guys who cost a lot are given the extensive opportunity to work through the pain.

 

I can certainly see the argument that Sam is pretty much an average QB right now based on metrics and not production from a guy who's throwing so much he's gonna need Tommy Johns surgery soon, but being in the average range of QBs as a newbie is pretty good. Its drastically ahead of the curve. As long as you hold onto the idea that he can improve, your talking about a guy in the 15 to 20 range getting better. That is a franchise QB if he keeps is current pace.

 

If your waiting on a 1-of-1... make sure to pack a box lunch.

[clskinsfan]

3 hours ago, Stihl89 said:

The defense right now being as woeful is allowing for a ton of long fields to gain volume and inflate somethings

Patriots last 5 possessions were 4 punts and an INT. They arent inflating anything. And Howell is NINE games into his career. No one is crowning him with anything except having the look of a young QB who can be pretty damn good. 

[Voice_of_Reason]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Look at their other decisions at personel especially at the O line and you'll find the answer.  Same crew that traded Trent for a ham sandwich, passed over Darrisaw in the draft, released Moses on and on.

 

 

I think you failed to see the sarcasm in my post and I’m not proud of you. 
 

 
 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

6 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

I think you failed to see the sarcasm in my post and I’m not proud of you. 
 

 
 

 

I saw it but the set up was too good for me not to jump on that pile 

[Voice_of_Reason]

Just now, Skinsinparadise said:

I saw it but the set up was too good for me not to jump on that pile 

[dunfer]

NFC isn’t great. Our window like every other nfc team is now. Get into the playoffs then it’s a tossup to get to that last game.

 

[Stihl89]

1 hour ago, BRAVEONTHEWARPATH93 said:

I think this is a very valid way to look at it. That’s why I’m hoping Sam really takes an even bigger jump to close the year out. 
 

But I hear you, man. I don’t agree with all your points but I understand this way of thinking. 

I look at everything but picture wise. The biggest big picture thing there is elite QBs are the ones competing for SBs year after year. The middle ones rarely are. Especially when they are costing 12% of the cap. 
 

If you think Sam can become one of those great ones I think it’s an extreme long shot. He’s not big and strong. He’s not elite athletically. He’s got a good not great arm. It’s his best trait and probably to 10 there. 
 

So he has to win between the ears and his ball accuracy. I think his accuracy his fine. Not great. That’s something guys have or they don’t. There’s marginal growth opportunities. Burrow has to be great with his ball accuracy to be elite and that’s where he makes his money. 
 

Then we get to Sam’s fatal flaw. The sacks. 80% of drives that have a sack end with zero points. If he even takes 5% of his number he’s still at the top of the league. 5% is a huge number in its own. He has to half it and is still in the top 3rd. Feels like an insurmountable number. It’s going to kill them come the playoffs against good teams. 
 

I think they are going to have to put more assets than a team should into their Oline to keep him upright along with forcing an offense to be a one read and dump off like they have been calling A TON of the past two weeks. 
 

I think he can become a 10-15 type of QB if he continues to grow but put a non zero chance of being a top 5-7 type of QB. The ones that compete year after year for SBs. I want to be one of those teams. If there’s a small chance of Caleb or Maye being available they should move Heaven and earth to get them. 
 

[zCommander]

3 hours ago, dunfer said:

could also just watch a game with your eyeballs

 

What if you have 1 eyeball? You will see Howell as half as good. 

[Renegade7]

I like that Sam has a thing for Drew Brees...homie was a late bloomer, Sam is coming out like a canon in comparison...the idea of a more mobile, stronger arm Brees puts my mind at ease, QB is the last thing I'm concerned about right now...franchise has made it clear they feel the same, with or without the current coaching regime...

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

52 minutes ago, Stihl89 said:

If there’s a small chance of Caleb or Maye being available they should move Heaven and earth to get them. 

They indeed would have to move heaven and earth to get them. 
 

And neither are guaranteed to be elite either.

[MartinC]

2 hours ago, TradeTheBeal! said:

I could be talked into Sam having a higher ceiling than Kirk.  The arm talent and mindset are superior and I’ve already seen Sam make plays off-script in the Red Zone that Kirk could/would never make.  Sam will likely never have Kirk’s durability and low-risk consistency tho.

Durability? Sam’s been sacked and hit more than any QB in the league. He’s a tough SOB.

[Conn]

Let’s hope Howell gets one this offseason 

[XxSpearheadxX]

16 minutes ago, MartinC said:

Durability? Sam’s been sacked and hit more than any QB in the league. He’s a tough SOB.

His throwing arm routinely is bruised purple. He's as tough as they come. He's also a funny guy also, at least he was on Tress's show 

[Skintime]

3 hours ago, Stihl89 said:

I’m not “out” on Howell. I’m just don’t think he is going to be elite. There’s two tiers of teams in the league. Elite QBed teams and everyone else. The same 5-7 elite QBs will take most of the playoff spots whwre the rest will fight it out for the wild cards. 
 

Rather not go that route. This season imo will be the best chance at an elite QB prospect in likely years unless they decide to tank next year. Unfortunately the 25 draft isn’t looking good. 

We can tell