The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[MartinC]

7 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

The thing is we won't be bad enough to finish with one of the high picks to get a QB.

 

So the question is, would you rather have Howell with two years left on his rookie deal having to learn his third new offense in three years, OR would you rather mortgage the future in draft capital to move up to get a Williams or Maye or whomever, but also get a guy with likely higher upside and with a 4-5 year rookie contract window?

 

The new regime will have to answer these questions, but its imperative they get it right.

 

It will be more like one year left on his rookie deal (assuming he continues to develop). We will need to be extending him after his third year.

 

But I'm with you on the rest. I'd take Howell straight up over any QB apart from the top two in next years draft. Even for those top two we have already seen Howell play at a high level in the NFL, we dont know if even Williams and Maye can do that yet.

[Voice_of_Reason]

2 hours ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

I still don’t think it’s a good call to bunch everyone up on that side of the field, to run a bubble screen on 3rd and 5.  It would have actually been a better time to call the play he ran on 4th and 1.

It might also be a different play.  I was listening on Radio.  The one I heard, London basically said Terry missed a block he normally makes and that blew up the play.

 

But yeah, there are always quibbles with play calling.  However, if you always did what people expected you to do, it's easier to defend.  

 

There is a balance to being creative and going against type and doing what would normally be considered the right thing to do.

[skinsfan66]

5 minutes ago, MartinC said:

 

Depends what we mean by sold. As a perennial top 10 NFL QB - no. We need to see more. But as a guy who has that potential and who we should be planning to build around for next season? I'm sold.

 

 

I dont think either guy gets you more than a day 3 pick - and they are probably more valuable to us here right now  helping Sam develop (in different ways) than that.

Sold on the build around Howell too, should have happened last year. I would do the trades if offered, first you get no value to nothing next year. Most likely not on the roster next year, Samuel has been overpaid for what he has put out and what we get with him now. Brissett will have more options and what is there to keep him here next year. Comp pick next year< 2024 year day 3 picks.   

[Thinking Skins]

14 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Usually teams that can pick marquee QBs in the draft don't trade away their picks.  If the draft happened today, the top 6 teams in the draft, I think zero chance they'd deal the pick.   I think their only fighting chance to find a team willing to deal a pick is if the Bears end up with the first and 2nd pick.

 

But right now, I think the lets consider trading for Maybe camp is maybe not quite pie in the sky but close to that -- feels far fetched at a minimum.

This is what we've known all year. He can compete with the big dogs (if not for the sacks). Its been frustrating listening to the radio (except for Hoffman and EB of the junkies and to an extent Chris Russell) because they're always bringing up the sacks and nothing else. I'm like talk about the yards, talk about the other QBs in his class, talk about the QBs in this class, They're all struggling. He's putting up numbers comparable or better than all of them. I used to say minus Purdy but now he's on par with Purdy in a lot of categories. 

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

He’s played 9 games, everyone should want to see more before proclaiming him “the guy”.  As in the “the guy” you build a franchise around.

 

But I think it’s abundantly clear already that he can play in this league and will, be it here or elsewhere.  
 

I get folks want the best of the best, an elite QB to build around, not wanting to put all the chips in on Sam.  But I ask those folks, what are the other options?  Dump Sam and trade the farm to move up for Maye?  No thanks.  

Edited October 30, 2023 by BatteredFanSyndrome

[BRAVEONTHEWARPATH93]

Third overall in Big Time Throws per PFF. More than guys like Lamar, Mahomes, Herbert, Dak.

 

Also third in turnover worthy plays. And overall, around 26-31st in passing grade depending on filters used. 
 

Very interesting data to parse through but he’s definitely going to be on the roster next year and is likely QB1 week 1. His highs are REALLY high. 
 

But they should still draft a QB somewhere as a hedge. Whether they trade up for a big name or take another mid round guy is a question for ownership. 

Edited October 30, 2023 by BRAVEONTHEWARPATH93

[Thinking Skins]

1 minute ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

He’s played 9 games, everyone should want to see more before proclaiming him “the guy”.  As in the “the guy” you build a franchise around.

 

But I think it’s abundantly clear already that he can play in this league and will, be it here or elsewhere.  
 

I get folks want the best of the best, an elite QB to build around, not wanting to put all the chips in on Sam.  But I ask those folks, what are the other options?  Dump Sam and trade the farm to move up for Maye?  No thanks.  

So, the problem is that this is what a lot of the draft hounds want. What a lot of us want is to build an OL and go into next year with a solid OL and sam and a solid Offense and a new coach and GM (who approves of Howell after he balls out the rest of the year), kinda like Philly did with Hurts. 

[Voice_of_Reason]

2 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

I am not 100% sold on Howell.  I want to see more of a sample size but i lean optimistic.  Don't get anyone who thinks they've seen enough and he's not that guy

I agree, but I think I'm almost 100% sold on Howell being the guy for next year, barring a complete and total collapse. (Hence the "almost 100% sure). Let's say I'm 94.539% sure he's the guy for next year.  

 

This is where I was with Kirk after 2015 as well:  You have no other options for 2016 and 2017.  You're not going to be drafting high enough to pick a top 2 QB, and even if you do, Kirk will be the best you could have over the next few years even if you draft a guy to take over. So, sign him now.  

 

Same with Howell.  I don't think they're going to be drafting high enough to grab one of the top 2 QBs. And I don't think they should trade 3 first round pick + to move up and get a QB.  Maybe they will if everything falls apart, they land up with a top 3 pick, I just don't see that. I see somewhere around 6 and 7 wins now, based on how abysmal the defense is.  And that's goingto be outside of the top 5, probably just inside or outside the top 10.  

 

Even if they draft a guy, there is now no rush to get them on the field.  They have Howell for 2 more years under contract.  They don't have to do anything. He's just there no matter what.  

 

At ABSOLUTE worst he's a great backup.  He could also be a trade piece if they want to move up to grab Caleb.  Or he could be the starter. 

 

Anybody who looks at him and goes, "yeah, he's not worthy of one of the 32 starting jobs in the NFL" has absolutely no earthly idea what they're looking at.  

[Warhead36]

There is no reason to not keep Howell for 2024 unless some team offers you some absurd trade offer. He's cheap, young, and has shown in a league full of bad QBs that he can at least win you a game here and there.

[Thinking Skins]

Just now, Voice_of_Reason said:

I agree, but I think I'm almost 100% sold on Howell being the guy for next year, barring a complete and total collapse. (Hence the "almost 100% sure). Let's say I'm 94.539% sure he's the guy for next year.  

 

This is where I was with Kirk after 2015 as well:  You have no other options for 2016 and 2017.  You're not going to be drafting high enough to pick a top 2 QB, and even if you do, Kirk will be the best you could have over the next few years even if you draft a guy to take over. So, sign him now.  

 

Same with Howell.  I don't think they're going to be drafting high enough to grab one of the top 2 QBs. And I don't think they should trade 3 first round pick + to move up and get a QB.  Maybe they will if everything falls apart, they land up with a top 3 pick, I just don't see that. I see somewhere around 6 and 7 wins now, based on how abysmal the defense is.  And that's goingto be outside of the top 5, probably just inside or outside the top 10.  

 

Even if they draft a guy, there is now no rush to get them on the field.  They have Howell for 2 more years under contract.  They don't have to do anything. He's just there no matter what.  

 

At ABSOLUTE worst he's a great backup.  He could also be a trade piece if they want to move up to grab Caleb.  Or he could be the starter. 

 

Anybody who looks at him and goes, "yeah, he's not worthy of one of the 32 starting jobs in the NFL" has absolutely no earthly idea what they're looking at.  

This is the situation we're in. And people like Kevin Sheehan (who I really respect because I grew up listening to him and he was the calm and rational one on 980) who tries to take this tone of middle ground while all the while airing nothing but negaive stats (these sack rates, calling them final and acting like other QBs haven't had sack problems and I've done research he refuses to do to show other Elite and average QBs who have had high sack rates in their FIRST 8 - 10 games and gone on to correct it, but he's calling it a fatal stat, and he's been having guests (respected data scientists) on his show calling him at best a career backup so now he can go with that and use it as a lead in with Jay Gruden.  

 

But We're about to be in QB purgatory. We have Sam right now. We either trade up for some elite QB like SD did when they had Drew cause they thought he wasn't the one (Narrator's voice: he was, Also Narrator's Voice: the one they traded for, Rivers wasn't). Do we want that to be us?

 

I mean we have somebody who is looking really good right now we can trade him for a maybe in college who looks good against division 2 competition and hope he translates. 

[Llevron]

The experience Howell is getting throwing 79 times a game is honestly irreplicable for a guy his age. We are never going to find a guy with this many NFL game time snaps in a career so young. He will end this season with his age, experience, obvious potential, crazy low cap number and *low mileage all on his side. Perfect type of player to build around and to attract a good coach. 

 

*I am choosing to believe that EB and Ron have turned a corner in the Oline/play calling department and have decided that maybe 100+ sacks are actually detrimental to his future. Thus, will help limit them as they can.  

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

[Thinking Skins]

4 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

Just....just brings a tear to my eye

[Est.1974]

Howell must get the job for 2024, any other suggestion is complete madness to me.

[Warhead36]

Again Howell has accumulated a lot of his stats in games when we were down big. He also had two absolutely awful games against the Bills and Giants.

 

I wouldn't look at volume stats as much as I'd look at his efficiency numbers.

[moondog]

13 minutes ago, BRAVEONTHEWARPATH93 said:

Third overall in Big Time Throws per PFF. More than guys like Lamar, Mahomes, Herbert, Dak.

 

Also third in turnover worthy plays. And overall, around 26-31st in passing grade depending on filters used. 
 

Very interesting data to parse through but he’s definitely going to be on the roster next year and is likely QB1 week 1. His highs are REALLY high. 
 

But they should still draft a QB somewhere as a hedge. Whether they trade up for a big name or take another mid round guy is a question for ownership. 

I cringe a little whenever analysts during a game mention the picks. I know it’s a little bit picky but for me, I completely throw out the buffalo game as it was really an outlier compared to his other 8 games. 
 

In those other 8 games he has 14 TD passes to 5 interceptions. 16 total TD’s to 6 total turnovers. For a young QB with a little over half a season worth of starting he’s actually really impressed me with his overall ball security. The pick yesterday and a couple others have come in crucial moments and are super painful but when looking at the body of work he has been incredibly productive in yardage as well as scoring. 
 

Ultimately I hate that we’ve basically put the offense on his back but he’s handled it extremely well and carried us a lot this year. These drops by sure handed and highly touted receivers is more frustrating - I wonder what the result of that game looks like if McLaurin and Dotson otherwise hold on to balls they catch 90+% of the time. McLaurin in particular who a year or two again went 150+ catchable balls without a drop. 
 

I don’t think it’s even crazy to say that Sam has a higher ceiling than even Cousins did here and I’m thankful we FINALLY gave him a better center AND established the quick game to take the pressure off. Would still like to see us lean more on the ground game, especially with a second productive bruised in Rodriguez who we didn’t even use yesterday. I still think EB is learning the ropes which is fine but it has been mind boggling that it took this long for him to support Sam in that way. Hopefully it continues but I’m sold on Sam. 

[BRAVEONTHEWARPATH93]

7 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Again Howell has accumulated a lot of his stats in games when we were down big. He also had two absolutely awful games against the Bills and Giants.

 

I wouldn't look at volume stats as much as I'd look at his efficiency numbers.

Yep. This is where #analytics really thrive.

 

I know it’s small but I sorted this on the EPA per play column and yes, the difference is huge obviously 

[Warhead36]

I will say that since the Buffalo game he's been much better with ball security. He also doesn't fumble, IIRC only one this year(Arizona opener which was a really bad one). Tells me he's a guy who learns and adjusts quickly. A really good sign.

[skinsfan66]

Let's see

A. Howell and a rebuilt offense through the draft? (OL) .... 

Or

B. A rookie QB and very little rebuild through the draft?

Or

C. F.A. castoffs and offense rebuild?

 

Answer for me.

A. Already tried B and C. 

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

1 hour ago, Koolblue13 said:

Down 7 points with just a bit more than 3 minutes to go and all of our TOs.

 

Eagles defense has their ears pinned back blitzing every down trying to get a TO or knock us back with a sack.

 

You're saying that going 2-7 and a sack was the best we could do? Good decisions when BRob is averaging 5.9 a carry on the day and better on the second to last drive.

I'm not sure where you are getting 2-7 and a sack.  Are you confusing drives?

 

The Drive that resulted in the first turnover on downs was a 7 play drive for 35 yards which included 3 running plays and 4 pass plays.  I detailed it in my previous post.  They threw on 3rd and 8 and 4th and 8.  They ran on consecutive first downs to open the drive.  

 

The next drive, which was the second to last drive of the game, the went 4-out.  Howell went 1-3 and a sack. 

 

 

1 hour ago, Koolblue13 said:

The Dotson catch should have counted and Terry should have caught one of those balls, but the pass rush forced bad throws.

Pass rush always forces bad throws for every team in the NFL.  If the ball hits you in the hands, you have to catch it if you're an NFL receiver.  Those are the rules.  I didn't make them up.  

 

1 hour ago, Koolblue13 said:

You're saying that a clock milking drive using the run to offset their pressure was a bad idea?

I never said that.  I'm not sure where you're getting that.  

 

1 hour ago, Koolblue13 said:

We were in the perfect position to control the end of the game, get in the endzone and win it with 2 like we should have the first game.

 

But we decided to pass 8 out of 9 ties when the team with the 3rd most sacks is just trying to get sacks. And we lost.

 

You're grasping as straws. You so desperately want this to be on EB, and you so desperately want to push the narrative he blew it by not running the ball more, you've totally lost the forest through the trees.  You've also lost entire control of the facts.  None of the stats you've listed are actually accurate. 

 

So, let's go through it again:

 

Commanders Drive #7: Started at 17-17 at 4:17 in the third - 12:03 in the 4th.  7:14 drive.

Passes - 8

Called runs - 5

Howell Scrambles - 2

 

This was as perfect as a drive as you could have asked for to take the lead.

 

Defense sucks, now you're tied again at 24.

 

Drive #8 - Howell throws an INT.  That happened at 7:17 in the 4th.  Eagles score to go up 31-24.

 

Drive #9 - Next drive: (Which is the one I detailed in a previous post)

Pass - 4

Runs - 3

Howell was 1-3 on passes, did connect with Gibson on one pass.  

 

I don't have a problem with this drive.  They ran the ball on 2 consecutive 1st downs.  This is the drive that ended with the 2 targets to McLaurin which were not complete. There were 7 minutes left in the game when they started the drive, they got 35 yards before the drive stalled.  They had incomplete passes on 3rd and 8 and 4th and 8.  I don't think either of those are running situations.  

 

Eagles go 3-out.

 

Drive #10 This drive started at 3:09 at their own 20.  Remember, they have to go 80 yards to score a TD.  There's plenty of time, but you've got a long way to go as well.  In this position, you can't have a 4 or 5 minute drive.  You've got to push the ball down the field a bit because you've got a long way to go. Especially early in the drive, you tend to pass more because you can't count on popping a run, and you need to maximize the number of plays you can get.  

 

Pass - 3

Sack - 1

 

Let's go deeper in this drive: 

1st -10: They started with a pass.  If you want to say this should have been a run, ok.  But there's nothing wrong with starting with a pass, especially down 7 with 3 minutes to go with the ball at the 20.   But it was incomplete.

2nd - 10: They completed a pass to Terry for 5 yards.  They could have runt he ball here.  But running at 2nd and 10 is one of the worst statistical plays in the NFL.  It's been one of my biggest complaints of EB as a play caller.  He runs WAY too much on 2nd and 10.  So I'm happy with the pass, and fine with getting 5 yards. Note: this was caught in-bounds, so clock running. And they completed the pass anyway.  

3rd - 5: Incomplete to Terry.  Personally I would not run here.  You could make the argument you have 2 downs to get the first, and a run would be ok.   However, in almost any scenario, a run here brings up 4th down.  Sure, Robinson COULD pop one.  BUT statistics can be misleading a bit.  Robinson had 10 runs for 59 yards.  1 run was 29 yards.  On the others, he was averaging 4.3 yards per carry and had 5 runs of 3 yards or less, with 2 runs for -1 yard.  He also had a couple runs for 10 yards and one for 7 yards.  If he gets stopped, you're looking at a 4th down and you've got the clock running, and now your 3:00 is probably at the 2 min warning or inside it, and you're in a hurry.

 

BUT, at 3rd and 5, I'd prefer to pass myself.  I'll hear the argument for a run.  But I can see why you would pass there.

 

4th - 5: Sack because Wylie sucks.  

 

I have no problem with this.  I think they probably run on the next first down if they get it before the 2-minute warning.  They had mixed run/pass all day.  You might have seen a run on second down if the first down pass was complete.  But the situation of being down 7, 80 yards to go with 3 minutes left in the game, you're going to lean to the pass.  Unfortunately, they didn't completely the first down throw and the Dotson catch was ruled incomplete.  

 

Look, in this situation, you're going to have to pass.  It just is what it is.  3 minutes ball at your 20 is a passing situation for everybody.  3 time outs or not.  A 5.9 yard Robinson run followed by a TO is a complete win for the Eagles.  They'll give you that all day.  

 

Eagles score again.  Now it's 38-24, Eagles.

 

Drive 11: This to pull within 7 with 1 minute to go to at least have a chance at an onside kick 

Pass  - 4

Run - 0

Howell was 4-0 on this drive.

 

So, at no point was Howell 2-7 with a sack.  

 

I guess they did pass on their last 8 plays.  But the last 4, they went 75 yards and scored a TD.  So I don't think you can complain about that.

 

The previous drive was the killer, but again, at your own 20 with 3 minutes to play, a couple 6 or 7 yard runs?  That's not really how it's done.

 

I'm sorry your hatred of EB and everything surrounding him has you so wound up that you can't see there was really nothing at all wrong with the offense game planning or play calling  this game at all. There was a mistake by the QB, a few drops, and the defense allowed TDs on every drive in the second half except one.

 

That's why they lost.

 

That's not why they lost last week.  Against the Giants the offense was a mess, and EB had a very bad week.  

 

This loss is on Ron and the defense 95%.  And 5% on Howell for the INT.  But when you go for 400 and 70 QBR, you're allowed one mistake.  

 

Ron should have challenged that catch when the Eagles were running up to snap it, which would have changed the entire game. 

 

The defense could have made a stop in the second half.

 

Those are the reason the game was lost.  Not because we didn't run the ball with 3 minutes left in the game. 

[Koolblue13]

3 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

 

 

I'm sorry your hatred of EB and everything surrounding him has you so wound up that you can't see there was really nothing at all wrong with the offense game planning or play calling  this game at all.

I DO NOT HAVE A HATRED OF EB. I JUST THINK HE'S BAD AT HIS JOB AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE.

 

Jesus ****ing christ with you and that bull****.

 

I think the play calling in the second half was bad. I think the last few drives he got away from everything that worked in the first half and we lost because of it.

 

We will continue to lose games because of him. He doesn't know how to draw up plays and he certainly doesn't know how to call them.

 

It  doesn't matter though, because he ain't going to be working here after this season.

[Voice_of_Reason]

31 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Again Howell has accumulated a lot of his stats in games when we were down big. He also had two absolutely awful games against the Bills and Giants.

You've said this before.  While it's kindof true, the only actual "garbage time" was in the Chicago game.  

 

Yeah, we were down big against the Cardinals and Denver.  But we came back and won those games, so no garbage time. If they chose to back off defensively, fine but that was stupid because they lost.  

 

He threw for 170 yards against the Bills.  The only thing he picked up against the Bills was more sacks.

 

I'll hear you against Chicago, but they pulled that game to within 10 and had a FG to make it a 7 point game.  Up until that point, I'd say there was not any garbage time.  After the missed FG and the subsequent score, sure.  That was about 40 yards total.

 

And against the Giants, I mean, they were down at most 14 and the whole game was garbage.

 

If the Eagles let them score that last drive, fine, but still and all, that's another 70 yards.

 

I think in context, his stats are pretty much all in the competitive parts of the game.

 

 

 

 

 

[oraphus]

The biggest fup was EB going for a pass on 4th and 1 (dumb!!)... once that failed... the game flipped. 

[The Consigliere]

45 minutes ago, Est.1974 said:

Howell must get the job for 2024, any other suggestion is complete madness to me.

 

If you don't know what you have at the position, and we don't, you have to target the position in the draft. You either have a franchise QB, or you don't. We don't know. I have no issue w/giving Howell the keys if he continues to produce this kind of season next year, but if we are in position to get a blue chip QB, I'd still target one anyway.

 

We've been self-satisfied at the position for years, and skipped on great classes with great QB's over and over again for eons and paid the price, if we can draft an elite QB next year, even via trading up, we should do it. If Howell's a hit, great, he's hugely valuable as a trade chip or as our QB, if he isn't, we have another in the pipeline.

 

I just wish people could take this ride properly, rather than go chicken little after crappy performances, and hype him all to hell when he has games like yesterday. He's been really good since day 1 as a starter (week 17 last year) with some real crappy performances in halves, and in one full game, and some real good ones. We don't know if he's legit or not yet, but he's been damn good all things considered in terms of draft capital, talent around him and the staff. 

 

Very happy w/the return from stealing him in that '22 class 18 months ago (which many of us were wise enough to celebrate in the moment). 

[Voice_of_Reason]

Just now, Koolblue13 said:

I DO NOT HAVE A HATRED OF EB. I JUST THINK HE'S BAD AT HIS JOB AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE.

 

Jesus ****ing christ with you and that bull****.

 

I think the play calling in the second half was bad. I think the last few drives he got away from everything that worked in the first half and we lost because of it.

 

We will continue to lose games because of him. He doesn't know how to draw up plays and he certainly doesn't know how to call them.

 

It  doesn't matter though, because he ain't going to be working here after this season.

Fine.  

 

I think, you're absolutely, completely, 100% and in every possible way wrong for this game.  The game plan this week was outstanding, the play calling was on point, and absent a few quibbles, there's absolutely nothing to complain about.  

 

I've detailed all of it.  Not one drive got away from him.  You can keep thinking that way, but this week, you're completely on an island.  I've listened to every recap, read a bunch of stuff, and none, and I mean NONE of it is tilted towards EB or the offense being even remotely a part of the problem yesterday.  Even the "run the ball crowd" has basically shut up this week and praised the offensive effort and the ability to be productive throughout the entire game.  

 

We didn't even come close to losing this game because of him or the offense.  We almost won it because of him.

 

If you want a target, it's Ron and Jack.  This week. 

 

Might not be next week.  But this week, the offense had literally NOTHING to do with the loss.  It's totally bananas you can't see that.  And I guess I'm not entirely sure why you're blaming the offense/EB for scoring 31 points, controlling the TOP, putting up 475 yards, going 7-12 on third downs, and having a yards per play of 6.8 instead of railing against Jack, the defense and Ron, who allowed 240 yards in the second half, allowed the first 3 drives to go for 75, 51 and then 75 yards, gave up 8-13 on 3rd downs.  They scored a TD on every drive of the second half except one.  THAT'S why the commanders lost.  

 

The culprit for the loss is RIGHT THERE for everybody to see. 

 

It's like a person who has a paper cut and a gunshot wound to the chest and you're claiming the guy is going to bleed out from the paper cut.  It's totally bananas.  

7 minutes ago, oraphus said:

The biggest fup was EB going for a pass on 4th and 1 (dumb!!)... once that failed... the game flipped. 

Except, it didn't.  That was at 1:50 left in the first half!  They had the lead in the 4th quarter 24-17, after scoring another TD.

 

Nothing flipped on that play. Wish they would have done something else, but literally NOTHING flipped on that play.