The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[wit33]

1 minute ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Could be.  Cooley was OK with Howell's North Carolina tape.  He liked him but didn't love him.  I wonder though what Cooley would feel now after he watched the preseason games?

I mentioned Cooley, because he’s be the one to move Sheehan off of a strong position. Though, in recent years Sheehan started to move Cooley much more than he did when Cooley was locked in. 

[oraphus]

I find it funny that people compare Howell to Baker Mayfield and say "oh no, i hope he is not the next Baker!"  If Howell is the next Baker thats a huge win for the Org. Mayfield is a bottom 3rd of the league starting QB. If our 5th rd pick turns in to top end backup/ border-line starter at less than 1mil a year... the savings can be used to shore up other areas and to bring along a rookie high end pick (if howell does not work out) slowly.

[Skinsinparadise]

14 minutes ago, wit33 said:

I mentioned Cooley, because he’s be the one to move Sheehan off of a strong position. Though, in recent years Sheehan started to move Cooley much more than he did when Cooley was locked in. 

 

Yeah Cooley was lukewarm about Howell when he watched his college tape but that was eons ago.   Though Cooley wasn't negative at all on Howell.  He just wasn't anywhere close from being smitten.

 

Cooley was down on plenty of other players we've had including Haskins from the jump.

 

12 minutes ago, oraphus said:

I find it funny that people compare Howell to Baker Mayfield and say "oh no, i hope he is not the next Baker!"  If Howell is the next Baker thats a huge win for the Org. Mayfield is a bottom 3rd of the league starting QB. If our 5th rd pick turns in to top end backup/ border-line starter at less than 1mil a year... the savings can be used to shore up other areas and to bring along a rookie high end pick (if howell does not work out) slowly.

 

I get the point from a value standpoint.  But from a team building standpoint if Howell ends up a bottom third QB, we'd still be in the perpetual hunt for a QB and that's not a hot place to be or more on point finding that elusive franchise QB has been beyond difficult for this franchise. 

Edited August 23, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[jjpomeroy]

32 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Cooley was down on plenty of other players we've had including Haskins from the jump.

While I love Cooley and his takes - he’s far from being infallible with his takes.  He still loves Drew Lock

[oraphus]

45 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

 

I get the point from a value standpoint.  But from a team building standpoint if Howell ends up a bottom third QB, we'd still be in the perpetual hunt for a QB and that's not a hot place to be or more on point finding that elusive franchise QB has been beyond difficult for this franchise. 

 Realistically chances are much higher that he ends up just that... again, still a huge win and yet should be pretty easy for the org to understand that it still needs a starter QB. Ultimately we all hope we have hit the jackpot of-course.. and we are due just from sheer luck perspective, but i have little faith in this FOs ability in finding a franchise qb. While Howell has looked good in preseason against mostly backups... the enthusiasm on this board is over the top. 

[mudhog]

11 minutes ago, oraphus said:

 Realistically chances are much higher that he ends up just that... again, still a huge win and yet should be pretty easy for the org to understand that it still needs a starter QB. Ultimately we all hope we have hit the jackpot of-course.. and we are due just from sheer luck perspective, but i have little faith in this FOs ability in finding a franchise qb. While Howell has looked good in preseason against mostly backups... the enthusiasm on this board is over the top. 

I don't see how a bottom third QB is still a huge win. Especially if we still have to stay in the hunt for a starting/franchise QB in perpetuity.

[mistertim]

3 hours ago, oraphus said:

I find it funny that people compare Howell to Baker Mayfield and say "oh no, i hope he is not the next Baker!"  If Howell is the next Baker thats a huge win for the Org. Mayfield is a bottom 3rd of the league starting QB. If our 5th rd pick turns in to top end backup/ border-line starter at less than 1mil a year... the savings can be used to shore up other areas and to bring along a rookie high end pick (if howell does not work out) slowly.

 

This is actually closer to a nightmare scenario for me. Having a "decent" QB sucks because you're then unlikely to ever finish with a bad enough record to get an elite QB prospect at the top of the draft, and you're also never going to be good enough to be a perennial contender. In addition, you have to decided if you're going to pay your decent QB a huge contract or jettison him and start over.

[FootballZombie]

2 hours ago, mudhog said:

I don't see how a bottom third QB is still a huge win. Especially if we still have to stay in the hunt for a starting/franchise QB in perpetuity.

 

Getting anything even remotely positive from your late round draft picks is tremendous value. They are not supposed to do much else other than fill out your roster for a couple of years on the cheap and then fade away.

 

While Howell not being an upper half QB would do little to solve our QB problems, from a bang for your buck situation he would have been a phenomenally tremendous value as long as he is anything other than flaming garbage.

 

If your scout is plucking top 32 QB in the 5th round, he's doing the Aaron Rodgers discount double check in meetings.

[Riggo-toni]

Howell has a stronger arm and is more mobile than Dalton, so I disagree that Dalton is his ceiling.  He may still not end up as good as Dalton, but he does at least have the athleticism to surpass him.

 

To me the most apt comparison is probably Marc Bulger, who I think also went in the 5th.  Also, Dak, who technically was a 4th, but went last in the round on a supplemental pick, so would only be a few spots higher in the draft.

[MrJL]

52 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

This is actually closer to a nightmare scenario for me. Having a "decent" QB sucks because you're then unlikely to ever finish with a bad enough record to get an elite QB prospect at the top of the draft, and you're also never going to be good enough to be a perennial contender. In addition, you have to decided if you're going to pay your decent QB a huge contract or jettison him and start over.

 

even with bottom end QB play we haven't been bad enough to do that. 

[method man]

16 minutes ago, Riggo-toni said:

Howell has a stronger arm and is more mobile than Dalton, so I disagree that Dalton is his ceiling.  He may still not end up as good as Dalton, but he does at least have the athleticism to surpass him.

 

To me the most apt comparison is probably Marc Bulger, who I think also went in the 5th.  Also, Dak, who technically was a 4th, but went last in the round on a supplemental pick, so would only be a few spots higher in the draft.

Blast from the past. I don’t remember anything about Bulger’s game

[oraphus]

1 hour ago, mistertim said:

 

This is actually closer to a nightmare scenario for me. Having a "decent" QB sucks because you're then unlikely to ever finish with a bad enough record to get an elite QB prospect at the top of the draft, and you're also never going to be good enough to be a perennial contender. In addition, you have to decided if you're going to pay your decent QB a huge contract or jettison him and start over.

Realistically in this league you need a top ~8qb to consistently compete for the championship.  (Unless you’re 49ers) This team is good enough to consistently finish 8-8 with or without a qb. So if Howell doesn’t have the makings of a top 8qb, they should be looking to upgrade.  Otherwise you’re in the Cousins category “pretty good but not good enough “. 

[Voice_of_Reason]

I don't know why we're putting a ceiling on Howell after 1 regular season game and 2 preseason games where he's looked good.

 

His ceiling could be Drew Brees.  Remember, Brees wasn't great for the beginning of his career to the point where the Chargers drafted Philip Rivers (ok, they drafted Eli Manning, who then forced a trade to the Giants and then the Chargers drafted Philip Rivers) because they wanted to upgrade at QB.   They spent the #4 pick on Rivers because they didn't think Brees was good enough.  Didn't work out badly for the Chargers, Rivers was great.  (Also, on the Mt. Rushmore of Kings of Procreation with like 78 children.)  But they clearly wanted to move on from Brees.  3 years into his career. 

 

Then BLAMO. 

 

Then he went to the Saints and basically set every passing record in the NFL. 

 

We live in a time where it seems like everybody has to make declarative statements all the time without letting things play out a little bit.  I'm disappointed in Sheehan for this.  This is a hot take, shock jock, stupid radio bit.  He should know better.  No, I haven't listened.  No, I'm not going to.  

 

I ABSOLUTELY disagree his ceiling is Dalton. I think it's higher than that.  But how much higher? I don't know.  Because we've seen nothing from him.  

[Skinsinparadise]

5 hours ago, jjpomeroy said:

While I love Cooley and his takes - he’s far from being infallible with his takes.  He still loves Drew Lock

 

Everyone is not infalliable.  No one is perfect with their takes.  If anyone does enough of them, they will get some wrong.    But I'll give him his track record is good, not too many misses.  I still think his best one is picking Josh Allen as the best QB in that draft crop.  Hardly anyone else thought the same at the time. 

 

I don't recall him still loving Drew Lock but to his credit he doesn't pretend his misses never happened so he owns up to them.  

Edited August 23, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Skinsinparadise]

22 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

I don't know why we're putting a ceiling on Howell after 1 regular season game and 2 preseason games where he's looked good.

 

His ceiling could be Drew Brees.  Remember, Brees wasn't great for the beginning of his career to the point where the Chargers drafted Philip Rivers (ok, they drafted Eli Manning, who then forced a trade to the Giants and then the Chargers drafted Philip Rivers) because they wanted to upgrade at QB.   They spent the #4 pick on Rivers because they didn't think Brees was good enough.  Didn't work out badly for the Chargers, Rivers was great.  (Also, on the Mt. Rushmore of Kings of Procreation with like 78 children.)  But they clearly wanted to move on from Brees.  3 years into his career. 

 

Then BLAMO. 

 

 

Yeah he had a great year in year 4 in SD.  But by then, Rivers was in the fold, too.

 

I don't think in today's NFL, this team would have the patience to endure 3 bad seasons and sign up for season 4. 

[Voice_of_Reason]

5 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Yeah he had a great year in year 4 in SD.  But by then, Rivers was in the fold, too.

 

I don't think in today's NFL, this team would have the patience to endure 3 bad seasons and sign up for season 4. 

The Chargers didn’t have the patience to endure 3 seasons and sign up for a 4th season. They drafted Rivers after year 3, with every intention of moving on from him for Rivers.  
 

It just clicked for Brees in year 4. And he beat Rivers in camp and started the whole year.  

 

Similar for Josh Allen.  Similar for Kirk.  
 

My point really was you generally can’t draw a conclusion on a guys ceiling after 1 regular season game. Caveat: the assumption being they have NFL talent.  Howell does.  If you don’t have the NFL talent, you can tell that almost immediately.

Edited August 23, 2023 by Voice_of_Reason

[Skinsinparadise]

13 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

 

My point really was you generally can’t draw a conclusion on a guys ceiling after 1 regular season game. Caveat: the assumption being they have NFL talent.  Howell does.  If you don’t have the NFL talent, you can tell that almost immediately.

 

Agree its premature to pick a celing.  The reason why I don't like Dalton as a ceiling is I don't see Dalton as a high ceiling QB -- his arm strength and mobility are just average. 

 

So Sheehan basically is already labeling Howell's peak would be #17-20 type of QB.  Look he could end up that way or worse but I think his ceiling is higher than that.

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

2 hours ago, mistertim said:

 

This is actually closer to a nightmare scenario for me. Having a "decent" QB sucks because you're then unlikely to ever finish with a bad enough record to get an elite QB prospect at the top of the draft, and you're also never going to be good enough to be a perennial contender. In addition, you have to decided if you're going to pay your decent QB a huge contract or jettison him and start over.

 

You keep your decent QB around with little guaranteed money and then trade up for a QB you really like. Having that decent QB means you're never desperate, you don't "have" to get one in an off-season. You can be patient and strike when you want to.

 

Aaron Rodgers (no trade up) and Patrick Mahomes fit that. Favre was better than decent but it let the Packers draft one when a QB fell to them that they liked. Alex Smith was decent but never enough. Reid waited until there was a QB he really wanted and traded up for him. Lamar Jackson is another example, the Ravens spent their 1st on someone else and  then traded back into the 1st for him.

[mistertim]

5 minutes ago, Always A Commander Never A Captain said:

 

You keep your decent QB around with little guaranteed money and then trade up for a QB you really like. Having that decent QB means you're never desperate, you don't "have" to get one in an off-season. You can be patient and strike when you want to.

 

Aaron Rodgers (no trade up) and Patrick Mahomes fit that. Favre was better than decent but it let the Packers draft one when a QB fell to them that they liked. Alex Smith was decent but never enough. Reid waited until there was a QB he really wanted and traded up for him. Lamar Jackson is another example, the Ravens spent their 1st on someone else and  then traded back into the 1st for him.

 

This doesn't really address my point. Rodgers and Mahomes are outliers. Rodgers fell for who knows what wonky reasons, and there were questions about Mahomes and his ability to transition into the NFL game. The Chiefs gambled on Mahomes and traded up to 10 for him and it worked out really well for them. 

 

So yes, we'd likely have to identify a QB prospect with question marks and either wait until he falls to our spot or trade up if he falls out of the top 10.

 

All I was saying is that we'd have no chance at the prospects who would be considered the full-on blue chippers. That doesn't mean we couldn't get a guy, but we'd have to take a chance on someone with holes in his game.

[dunfer]

obvious ceiling is russell wilson. Theyre carbon copies imo

 

I dont uderstand comparing him to andy dalton

Edited August 23, 2023 by dunfer

[oraphus]

12 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

This doesn't really address my point. Rodgers and Mahomes are outliers. Rodgers fell for who knows what wonky reasons, and there were questions about Mahomes and his ability to transition into the NFL game. The Chiefs gambled on Mahomes and traded up to 10 for him and it worked out really well for them. 

 

So yes, we'd likely have to identify a QB prospect with question marks and either wait until he falls to our spot or trade up if he falls out of the top 10.

 

All I was saying is that we'd have no chance at the prospects who would be considered the full-on blue chippers. That doesn't mean we couldn't get a guy, but we'd have to take a chance on someone with holes in his game.

Why not? You’re missing the point.  We can still trade 3 1sts to move up in the top 5 and nab “that” guy.  In the mean time we’re not trading valuable pics and giving 10s of millions to used tampon qbs like wentz and Fitzpatrick or paying too if the market money to above avg starters like Cousins. 

[mistertim]

3 minutes ago, oraphus said:

Why not? You’re missing the point.  We can still trade 3 1sts to move up in the top 5 and nab “that” guy.  In the mean time we’re not trading valuable pics and giving 10s of millions to used tampon qbs like wentz and Fitzpatrick or paying too if the market money to above avg starters like Cousins. 

 

The Niners spent 3 firsts plus more to move from 12 to 3. If we're outside the top 15 there's basically zero chance of moving up into the top 3, which is where any true elite level blue chip QB prospect will go. We'd have to hope for a Chiefs situation where a talented guy with some question marks falls and take a chance on him.

[MartinC]

6 hours ago, oraphus said:

I find it funny that people compare Howell to Baker Mayfield and say "oh no, i hope he is not the next Baker!"  If Howell is the next Baker thats a huge win for the Org. Mayfield is a bottom 3rd of the league starting QB. If our 5th rd pick turns in to top end backup/ border-line starter at less than 1mil a year... the savings can be used to shore up other areas and to bring along a rookie high end pick (if howell does not work out) slowly.

Baker played pretty well up until his fourth year. He won 11 games in year 3. He got hurt and played through injuries - fully healthy he’s a better than average starter IMO.

[skinsfan66]

 The Sky is the ceiling/ Limit? Till other wise?

[MartinC]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Yeah he had a great year in year 4 in SD.  But by then, Rivers was in the fold, too.

 

I don't think in today's NFL, this team would have the patience to endure 3 bad seasons and sign up for season 4. 

Given the situation of Rivera and the front office it’s probably this year or bust for Sam. If he has a bad first year I think Harris cleans house and a new regime and coaching staff likely look for a different answer at QB. 
 

There is a path where Sam plays well and shows development but the record is mediocre, Ron gets fired and a new regime sticks with Sam (at least partly because they can’t trade up far enough to draft a premium prospect). But that’s a narrow path.