The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[Voice_of_Reason]

5 hours ago, DJHJR86 said:

I think QBR is a decent measure of how well a quarterback played in a game as compared to a passer rating.  And I was always a little worried after seeing several Colts fans rejoicing of the trading of Wentz and how they mocked that most recent "Commanders have found their guy" WaPo article.  Essentially it was a common refrain: looks like a superstar and then will make a braindead boneheaded decision.  We got that full experience on Sunday.  I went and looked up his QBR weekly rankings for 2021 to see if the Colts fans were right and here are the rankings:

QBR is one of my favorite stats too, but you have to look at it in context.  Wentz was the 18th highest QBR in week 1.  Was he REALLY the 18th best QB?  I'd say no.  

 

QBR actually aids QBs who get sacked a lot, because it puts the pressure on the OL, not the QB.  Which is fine, and sometimes true.  But not always. It penalizes the QBs who get the ball out quickly to avoid pressure, and aids those that hang onto the ball.

 

When I went through and looked at just the basic stats, win/loss, and some of the games, I think it's pretty unarguable the following QBs had "the best day."

 

- The Cyborg known as Mahomes.

- Allen

- Herbert

- Kirk Cousins

 

After that, there are a whole lot of guys who had different things they did well, different things they didn't do well.  I would actually put Wentz's day somewhere closer to the back part of the top 10 than the back part of the top 20. He had basically 4 bad plays: The 2 INTs and 2 inaccurate misses.  He made up for that with 313 total yards, a 64% completion, several (at least 2 on the final drive, and more than that in the game) BIG 3rd down conversions, several deep shots including the TD to Terry, and a total of 4 TDs.  Only 1 sack for -9 yards.  And he led the game winning drive in the 4th quarter.  

 

I look at a guy like Lamar Jackson, who had 100 yards less passing, a lower completion percentage (56.7), only 17 yards rushing, 3 TDs and 1 INT.  He had the 7th highest QBR at 67.3, 20 points higher than Wentz's.  

 

I'm not sure that really tells the whole story.

 

As I said, I really like QBR.  But at times, it goes completely funky, in either direction.  So you have to look at it in context as well.  

 

There is no one stat which is perfect.  The PFF grades are probably the absolute worst.  I like QBR.  Passer rating is very passe and totally incomprehensible.  

 

But it's not perfect.  You have to look at it in context, and I think with a larger sample size.  

 

For example, if you look at an entire season, it seems to get things pretty right.  You'll have some variance due to the weird stuff game to game, but it all kindof works itself out.  Typically, the good QBs are high on the list, and the bad ones are low on the list.  

 

But week to week, you can have some really odd stuff.  

Edited September 13, 2022 by Voice_of_Reason

[philibusters]

Wentz missed maybe three pretty open receivers (Thomas, Milne, and I forgot the other) so I think that is what people are talking about with accuracy issues.

 

I thought the first interception was 100% on Wentz.  I don't think the second interception was necessarily on him.  I would say that was 40% the play call, 40% just a good play by the defender, and maybe 20% on Wentz.  It was a screen where he rolled out a bit one way to get the defense flowing that way then threw across the field.  Anytime you are throwing across the field with lots of traffic, thats a risk.   Further, he only had a second to turn and make the throw.  He didn't really have time to survey.  Thus, I definitely put some of the blame on the playcall.  It was a risky play call, high reward, but with a good amount of risk.   And the defender just made a really athletic play. 

[Voice_of_Reason]

2 hours ago, Koolblue13 said:

 

[Koolblue13]

28 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

Figured you'd love that stat.

[goskins10]

1 hour ago, Califan007 The Constipated said:

Has he been known to do that before, though?…Have a string of ****-ups back to back and then turn it on right afterwards? In 2020 Wentz threw 2 INTs against us after being up 17-0 in the first half…he didn’t do jack the rest of the game and scored zero points. Yesterday he turned it around in like a minute and a half later lol…I can’t help but think that’s new, but I don’t know for sure.

 

 

I don't either - but why does it matter??  I don;'t mean this to be ugly, but I honestly do not have the time to look throguh each game of his career and see if he had some kind of lull only to come back strong. But if he can do it once he can do it again. 

 

And if it is new, is it due to him or the team around him? We can dissect this to inordinate detail, but bottom line is he seriously turned it around Sunday. And yes I mentioned that people have said he folds all the time - well it's NOT all the time based on Sunday alone 🙂  And people have clowned him for no confidence. Sure looked like he had confidence to me. 

 

Not addressed to you, just a jump off -  And those about to type -"It's just one game, against Jacksonville", no one is saying anything different. But for that one game he went against several of the negative narratives  Only one he propelled was bad ints. But all QBs have bad ints. Brett Farve is considered a top tier QB and I believe hodls the record for most interceptions fr a career, if not he is close. But yea Carson needs to clean those up. 

 

If was just nice to see a guy not fold after a few mistakes and then make some really really nice throws and decisions to bring his team back. He celary has the locker-room behind him - another negative narrative. 

[Koolblue13]

16 minutes ago, goskins10 said:

 

 

I don't either - but why does it matter??  I don;'t mean this to be ugly, but I honestly do not have the time to look throguh each game of his career and see if he had some kind of lull only to come back strong. But if he can do it once he can do it again. 

 

And if it is new, is it due to him or the team around him? We can dissect this to inordinate detail, but bottom line is he seriously turned it around Sunday. And yes I mentioned that people have said he folds all the time - well it's NOT all the time based on Sunday alone 🙂  And people have clowned him for no confidence. Sure looked like he had confidence to me. 

 

Not addressed to you, just a jump off -  And those about to type -"It's just one game, against Jacksonville", no one is saying anything different. But for that one game he went against several of the negative narratives  Only one he propelled was bad ints. But all QBs have bad ints. Brett Farve is considered a top tier QB and I believe hodls the record for most interceptions fr a career, if not he is close. But yea Carson needs to clean those up. 

 

If was just nice to see a guy not fold after a few mistakes and then make some really really nice throws and decisions to bring his team back. He celary has the locker-room behind him - another negative narrative. 

Farve has always been my comparision for Wentz. Huge canon, can make every throw and a lot that most QBs just can't. Plays a ton of back yard ball.

 

He is not remotely a game manager. He's a let it rip and lets win this game type of QB and I'm here for it all.

[Califan007 The Constipated]

22 minutes ago, goskins10 said:

 

 

I don't either - but why does it matter??

 

Because the other guy was kinda ridiculing people who said Wentz usually melts down when going through a bad streak, as if they were mistaken to think that. Well, if what we saw Sunday is new for him, then nobody should be faulted for thinking that way. That's why I asked, and that's why it mattered.

 

Edit: Oh, that was you lol...I rarely pay attention to who I'm responding to.

Edited September 13, 2022 by Califan007 The Constipated

[goskins10]

5 minutes ago, Califan007 The Constipated said:

 

Because the other guy was kinda ridiculing people who said Wentz usually melts down when going through a bad streak, as if they were mistaken to think that. Well, if what we saw Sunday is new for him, then nobody should be faulted for thinking that way. That's why I asked, and that's why it mattered.

 

Edit: Oh, that was you lol...I rarely pay attention to who I'm responding to.

 

 

There are two ways to look at it -

 

1. Can they be faulted for thinking that way before - Which I think they can as I am certain like with most things Carson the negatives are exxagerrated and if I had time I could find other instances where he came backafter struggling - but fair enoguh without looking I do not know for sure or

 

2. He changed the narrative for at least one game so it is worth an in your face, as in, **** you, see I can come back from a few mistakes. Kind of like Cousins "You like that!" He might be an ass but that was a decent moment for ihm. Sunday was a good moment for Carson. May be the only one so I plan to enjoy it...  😂  

 

Just depends on how you want to read it. Just having some fun. Moving on. 

[Califan007 The Constipated]

12 minutes ago, goskins10 said:

 

 

There are two ways to look at it -

 

1. Can they be faulted for thinking that way before - Which I think they can as I am certain like with most things Carson the negatives are exxagerrated and if I had time I could find other instances where he came backafter struggling - but fair enoguh without looking I do not know for sure or

 

2. He changed the narrative for at least one game so it is worth an in your face, as in, **** you, see I can come back from a few mistakes. Kind of like Cousins "You like that!" He might be an ass but that was a decent moment for ihm. Sunday was a good moment for Carson. May be the only one so I plan to enjoy it...  😂  

 

Just depends on how you want to read it. Just having some fun. Moving on. 

 

I can buy both of those lol...especially the 2nd one.

 

Also, I had just read the MMQB article about Wentz and the game and it put me in a mindset of "Maybe we really DO have a scheme and culture here that can turn Wentz's flaws around"...the article seemed to indicate that the Jaguars game showed we probably do. So I kinda liked thinking this was new for Wentz lol...preferred it over "Eh, he does this every season on every team...sucks for a quarter then becomes Marino for a quarter." I prefer thinking people were right about Wentz's play in Philly and Indy, but they're wrong about it carrying over to Washington. Someone here went into detail about why we might be a great fit for Wentz ( @Thinking Skins or @Voice of Reason maybe?...Like I said I don't pay attention lol). So yeah, I'm kinda hoping this is indeed new.

Edited September 13, 2022 by Califan007 The Constipated

[Koolblue13]

 

[Franklin60]

I've been following this thread for about a month after refusing to enter it once Carson Wentz was acquired. It just pained me too much to see him playing for Washington. I've been a huge Wentz supporter and some might say apologist since the day the Eagles drafted him.

 

This is truly an awkward time for me. It's hard for me to actively root against the Commanders while at the same time hoping that Wentz proves all of his detractors wrong. There's a fine balance I'm going to have to navigate going forward. In the meantime, I want to weigh in on something I read the other day. That is that Sunday's game was "typical" of Wentz. His throwing two interceptions. As though that happens a lot. It doesn't.

 

I went back through his game-by-game logs. In his 85 career starts (excluding the playoff game against the Seahawks where he was knocked out, literally, after only three passes), Wentz threw two or more interceptions a grand total of fifteen times. That's about 18% of the time. In other words, about the same as throwing a die and having it land on a six. Roughly once every month and a half. Maybe two or three times a year. On the other hand, he's thrown zero interceptions 45 times. That's three times as often he's putting up zero interceptions as opposed to two interceptions. That means that more than half of his starts his not getting picked off at all.

 

It truly sickens me that this narrative exists in the first place and that it somehow has gotten legs. Because he's pretty much the exact opposite of being someone who throws a lot of interceptions.

 

That doesn't mean I refuse to acknowledge his flaws. The two I pointed out (tends to throw passes high at times because his footwork can get wonky/tends to get passes batted at the line way more than you'd expect from a tall quarterback) were in full evidence on Sunday. Okay, fine, every quarterback has things they don't do perfectly. But that doesn't mean that he's not a good quarterback. Because he is. Frankly I think he's more than simply "good".

[srtman04]

Carson is good enough to win games, but also bad enough to lose them too.   Let's hope we see more of the former vs the latter during his tenure here.  But I am mentally preparing myself for those boneheaded losses, which I'm sure will come.  

Edited September 13, 2022 by srtman04

[Cooleyfan1993]

1 minute ago, srtman04 said:

Carson is good enough to win games, but also bad enough to lose them too.   Let's hope we see more of the former vs the latter during his tenure here.  But I am mentally preparing myself for those boneheaded losses, which I'm sure will come.  

Yep. Heck, I’m mentally preparing myself for Sunday to be one of those boneheaded losses. 

[FlyBigBeard]

After reading some of this, some of you must have forgotten what we have had at QB the last 7 or 15 years other than Kirk haha.. Carson had a good game not great but damn good, yeah 2 Ints but overall a good game. I'm excited to see what he can become in this offense. Having our WRs and using Gibson how he should have always been used is exciting. 

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

36 minutes ago, Franklin60 said:

I've been following this thread for about a month after refusing to enter it once Carson Wentz was acquired. It just pained me too much to see him playing for Washington. I've been a huge Wentz supporter and some might say apologist since the day the Eagles drafted him.

 

This is truly an awkward time for me. It's hard for me to actively root against the Commanders while at the same time hoping that Wentz proves all of his detractors wrong. There's a fine balance I'm going to have to navigate going forward. In the meantime, I want to weigh in on something I read the other day. That is that Sunday's game was "typical" of Wentz. His throwing two interceptions. As though that happens a lot. It doesn't.

 

I went back through his game-by-game logs. In his 85 career starts (excluding the playoff game against the Seahawks where he was knocked out, literally, after only three passes), Wentz threw two or more interceptions a grand total of fifteen times. That's about 18% of the time. In other words, about the same as throwing a die and having it land on a six. Roughly once every month and a half. Maybe two or three times a year. On the other hand, he's thrown zero interceptions 45 times. That's three times as often he's putting up zero interceptions as opposed to two interceptions. That means that more than half of his starts his not getting picked off at all.

 

It truly sickens me that this narrative exists in the first place and that it somehow has gotten legs. Because he's pretty much the exact opposite of being someone who throws a lot of interceptions.

 

That doesn't mean I refuse to acknowledge his flaws. The two I pointed out (tends to throw passes high at times because his footwork can get wonky/tends to get passes batted at the line way more than you'd expect from a tall quarterback) were in full evidence on Sunday. Okay, fine, every quarterback has things they don't do perfectly. But that doesn't mean that he's not a good quarterback. Because he is. Frankly I think he's more than simply "good".

 

Am I wrong or has the "rollercoaster Carson" narrative like he's Rex Grossman only existed for the past 48 hours? He's had more seasons with only 7 interceptions than those with a different total. Kind of hard to have a rollercoaster 2 Int game when you only threw 7 on the season.

[FootballZombie]

11 minutes ago, Always A Commander Never A Captain said:

Am I wrong or has the "rollercoaster Carson" narrative like he's Rex Grossman only existed for the past 48 hours?

 

I don't think that's new. That is how a lot of people were describing his career and his performance even across single games in the offseason.

[mh86]

20 minutes ago, FootballZombie said:

 

I don't think that's new. That is how a lot of people were describing his career and his performance even across single games in the offseason.

Yup, people tend to only remember the bad and/or regurgitate what the media likes to talk about. 

[NickyJ]

The problem with the roller coaster comparison is that roller coasters can be built in many different ways. Rex Grossman is the roller coaster that shifts so fast that you lose consciousness. Carson is more of a kiddie coaster compared to Rex.

[Carsonfanforlife]

2 hours ago, Koolblue13 said:

Farve has always been my comparision for Wentz. Huge canon, can make every throw and a lot that most QBs just can't. Plays a ton of back yard ball.

 

He is not remotely a game manager. He's a let it rip and lets win this game type of QB and I'm here for it all.

Farve's always been the best comparison. Gunslingers can be fun to watch but also hard at times. They have special arm talent that sometimes gets them in trouble because they believe they can make any throw. Gotta let them keep firing though even after a misfire or 2. I still like watching them play the game.  

[Riggo#44]

6 hours ago, goskins10 said:

Love the 11-13 for 2TDs after the 2nd int. It's really too bad he folds all the time. Has no confidence. 

 

HE IS WHO WE THOUGHT HE IS!

[Mrshadow008]

2 hours ago, Califan007 The Constipated said:

 

I can buy both of those lol...especially the 2nd one.

 

Also, I had just read the MMQB article about Wentz and the game and it put me in a mindset of "Maybe we really DO have a scheme and culture here that can turn Wentz's flaws around"...the article seemed to indicate that the Jaguars game showed we probably do. So I kinda liked thinking this was new for Wentz lol...preferred it over "Eh, he does this every season on every team...sucks for a quarter then becomes Marino for a quarter." I prefer thinking people were right about Wentz's play in Philly and Indy, but they're wrong about it carrying over to Washington. Someone here went into detail about why we might be a great fit for Wentz ( @Thinking Skins or @Voice of Reason maybe?...Like I said I don't pay attention lol). So yeah, I'm kinda hoping this is indeed new.

I think there have been a couple that have made that point. I think the offensive system fits him better. The WCO offense is predicated on rhythm, timing, and accuracy. This system is more about pushing the ball downfield and allowing the qb to make plays. You’re literally taking wentz out of a system designed around his weaknesses and putting him in a system designed around his strengths. Also from a leadership perspective Philly and Indy looked for him to be a vocal leader in the locker room. He’s not going to be asked to do that as much here because Ron’s more of the vocal leader in the locker room. Which takes more off his plate and allows him to focus on just doing what he does best play football. 

[Llevron]

2 hours ago, Koolblue13 said:

 

 

So its 100% confirmed then? 

[Cooleyfan1993]

3 minutes ago, Llevron said:

 

So its 100% confirmed then? 

Couple of comments that stick out to me on the tweet: 

 

1) “guess he doesn’t get the show. Geez!” 

           Is that a way of saying it’s supposed to be a radio show meant to get people riled up?

 

2) “guess his PR didn’t tell him about these guys?”

       Uhh…….do retired players have PR people? (Maybe they do, I’d be surprised though)

[Mrshadow008]

Just now, Cooleyfan1993 said:

Couple of comments that stick out to me on the tweet: 

 

1) “guess he doesn’t get the show. Geez!” 

           Is that a way of saying it’s supposed to be a radio show meant to get people riled up?

 

2) “guess his PR didn’t tell him about these guys?”

       Uhh…….do retired players have PR people? (Maybe they do, I’d be surprised though)

The you don’t get the show thing is because most of the show is largely schtick not to be taken seriously lol obviously you don’t get the show 😜

[HigSkin]

Here comes the national sports media back peddling...

 

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/nfl-week-1-overreactions-and-reality-checks-dak-prescott-injury-carson-wentz-highlight-wild-opening-sunday/

 

Carson Wentz is the best Commanders QB since Kirk Cousins

Overreaction or reality: Reality

 

Carson Wentz had one interesting debut for the Commanders, throwing for 313 yards and four touchdowns in leading Washington to a fourth-quarter comeback against the Jaguars. He also threw two interceptions, including a poor throw to Travon Walker that gave the Jaguars the ball at the Washington 11 with the Commanders trailing by one early in the fourth quarter.

 

Wentz corrected himself and threw a 49-yard touchdown to Terry McLaurin and a 24-yard touchdown to Jahan Dotson to rally Washington to the win. He's the first quarterback to throw four touchdowns in a season opener for the Commanders since Billy Kilmer in 1975 and the first Commanders quarterback to throw for four touchdowns in a game since Kirk Cousins in 2015. 

 

The Commanders haven't had excellent QB play since Cousins as 10 players have started a game since he departed in 2017. The proof is in the pudding Wentz may be the answer in Washington.

 

 

Edited September 13, 2022 by HigSkin