The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[Dah-Dee]

3 minutes ago, RWJ said:

Back to we don't and won't know until the pick or (if the most incredible trade in NFL history is made to acquire someone which I highly doubt) is made when we are on the clock at #2.  Pretty simple.  We know when the Commish calls out the #2 pick.    

 

[The Consigliere]

Just now, Warhead36 said:

I still wouldn't if there are other QBs with superstar potential. Purdy is crap once he's not on a rookie contract.

You'd be making a huge mistake.

 

Relevant details:

17-5 in regular season.

4-2 in playoffs (6 TD's against 1 pick)

21-7 overall for a .750 winning percentage.

Well those are team stats man.

 

Dude also finished 5th in QBR in 5 starts in '22 and 1st in QBR starting a full season in '23.

 

Playoff #'s are just "okay" at best. He hasn't been bad, or even below average, but he hasn't been scinitilating either, but lets also acknowledge he was accomplishing all this as a 7th rounder thrust into the starting lineup, and then playing 8 months after suffering a complete tear of his UCL, which he actually continued to play with after the niners ran out of QB's.

 

I don't know where he ends up? It may just be an average or above average QB, but right now his #'s say he's much better than that.

 

Efficency Metrics:

True Passer Rating: 1st

QBR: 1st

Expected Points Added: 1st

Production Premium: 4th

Red Zone Accuracy: 10th

Deep Ball Accuracy Rating: 3rd

Clean Pocket Accuracy Rating: 18th

Deep Ball Catchable Pass Rate: 1st

Pressured Catachable Pass Rate: 5th

Catchable Pass Rate: 12th

Completion Percentage vs Man: 2nd

Completion Percentage vs Zone: 17th

Passer Rating vs Man (1st)

Passer Rating vs Zone (6th)

 

We would be enormously lucky to land a guy at 2 who produces these #'s in his second year, particularly on top of that with a UCL complete tear less than 9 months earlier. Needless to say, I'm highly skeptical Daniels comes anywhere close to any of this in year 2 or honestly any QB we take, these kind of #'s by and large are a fantasy come true, pretending otherwise strikes me as crazy. Are their concerns? Yep. Size and hand size are definitely concerns but there's no question early returns from Purdy are a grand slam level hit for a top of the 1st round pick, for a 7th round pick, we're talking Brady type numbers, but is that gonna continue. I don't know. But hell yes I'd take this every day at #2 and twice on sunday as they say. 

 

[JamesMadisonSkins]

29 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I can definitely see this going down.  Call me crazy but I'd be stoked for an O'Connell-Mariota 2024.  Heck we wouldn't even be able to get one of the touted WRs in this draft but who would give a crap?  Bring me O'Connell and lets take our chances with the already regarded "meh" 2025 QB class. 

 

Season ticket sales would be fire.    🔥

 

 

Well, it would be Maye-Mariota --- because the that's the totality of what the Raiders would give up. We'd get #3 and #44 in that scenario.

 

It also would pencil out, but less favorably for us, if the Pats go #13, #44, 2025 1st and O'Connel, and then we get #77 and a 2025 2nd or 2026 1st to pick swap, but we would not be getting O'Connell either way.

[The Consigliere]

1 hour ago, Koolblue13 said:

I'm 99% sure we're drafting Daniels or Maye at 2 and nothing will change that.

I would add JJ to that mix, but yeah, if the actual pick is Daniels, and the Raiders try to move up to 2 to make it happen, I'd do that trade, I'd prefer moving back to taking Daniels at 2, but I know that's not gonna happen. After 3 months of looking at these guys, I remain a Daniels Skeptic, not a denier so much, but definitely a skeptic, and I'd rather have the pot of gold than risk giving a way such a giant collection of goodies, especially knowing the raiders would be wrecked and our future picks quite high. I'd stay at slot for Maye, I'd move down if it was JJ as well. I'm at 2 for Caleb and Maye, but not Daniels (or JJ). Minny is temping, but I think they can fix/reboot that team quicker, the Giants and Raiders are better partners because both suck, but w/the Giants going for Maye, I wouldn't want that. Its complicated lol. 

Edited April 25 by The Consigliere

[Llevron]

38 minutes ago, Hooper said:

People see what they want to see. That much is clear.

 

Whoever we pick, I'm confident our new braintrust has done the work.

 

 

 

Yea at this point Im just going to assume cats cant read or dont want to. Whichever is fine with me. 

[CommanderInTheRye]

A bevy of final opinions from multiple experts and sports personalities on who we should draft…

 

 

 

[Llevron]

39 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Great vision means you can angle and position yourself to minimize damage taken.

 

This has literally never been what great vision meant until now lmao 

 

wtf guys 

[mac8887]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

I am more than good with Daniels but I'd be excited about this if it were Maye but too much smoke that its McCarthy as #2 on their board not Maye.  I'll deal with it if its McCarthy i the end, love his floor, but the ceiling doesn't get me that jazzed.

 

Am still guessing its Daniels though

 

 

 

Just curious as to what you see that might limit his ceiling? I personally don’t see much, he has a strong arm, he is accurate, and he’d be one of the top 7 athletes at the qb position in the nfl. He does need to learn to change speeds on his throws more often when needed, but I feel that can be learned. Maye for example does change speed on his throws, but when he does it, his throwing motion changes considerably and it looks more like he his aiming it rather than throwing it, and personally, I feel that this leads to some of his accuracy issues. I’m just not really seeing some major hurdle that would limit McCarthys ceiling, and I feel he might have the highest floor in the draft. I’d love to hear what you think would limit his ceiling, that way I could watch some film of him today, to see if I can see the same issue

[skinny21]

1 hour ago, clskinsfan said:

"not counting screen passes" means his fact is worthless. Screens are a big part of the game. Ignoring them doesnt change that. 

I’m not sure I’m following.  I mean, I get that screen passes matter, but wouldn’t it, for example, be fair to ignore screen plays to better judge accuracy?  Now, I’d still wanna know how accurate they were on screen passes…

 

If two players throw the same amount of passes, but one throws a screen 10% of the time, and the other 40%, wouldn’t you question a narrative that says the first guy was asked to do less?  I’m not saying you should necessarily draw a conclusion from that info per say, but I’d at least say that data point seems to refute the narrative.

[Ghost of]

Nate Tice breaking down his thoughts on Drake Maye.  Is shocked by everyone really turning on him (at least in media) and thinks he has all the tools. Makes several good points.  

 

 

13 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

You'd be making a huge mistake.

 

Dude also finished 5th in QBR in 5 starts in '22 and 1st in QBR starting a full season in '23.

 

Playoff #'s are just "okay" at best. He hasn't been bad, or even below average, but he hasn't been scinitilating either, but lets also acknowledge he was accomplishing all this as a 7th rounder thrust into the starting lineup, and then playing 8 months after suffering a complete tear of his UCL, which he actually continued to play with after the niners ran out of QB's.

 

We would be enormously lucky to land a guy at 2 who produces these #'s in his second year, particularly on top of that with a UCL complete tear less than 9 months earlier. 

 

 

Good point about his UCL tear. He was doing well, to the point where I'm confident the Niners beat the Eagles if they have him, he gets back to the SB after recovery.  

 

There are people here and elsewhere who have pushed this 'narrative' and 'bias' with Purdy, and I'm going to have to chime in and say the way people discuss him, there is definitely a bias at play. I do think being Mr. Irrelevant doesn't help him in the media, but there's more going on.  

[The Consigliere]

43 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I can definitely see this going down.  Call me crazy but I'd be stoked for an O'Connell-Mariota 2024.  Heck we wouldn't even be able to get one of the touted WRs in this draft but who would give a crap?  Bring me O'Connell and lets take our chances with the already regarded "meh" 2025 QB class. 

 

Season ticket sales would be fire.    🔥

 

Not close for me, if I'm trading with the Raiders, I want 3 future firsts and at least another future 2nd and future 3rd on top of this year's 2nd.

They say no, I say, I'm good. 

 

The raiders are a mess of a build with some good vets, a handful of good youngsters, and mostly crap. We empty out their pockets of futures and it's like the Nets-Celtics trade from years ago, Golden Loom stuff, yes please. Im not doing it for less than a H. Walker style overpay. 

[BayouBrave86]

It’s not about the QB we draft tonight, it’s about the journey and friends we made along the way in this thread.

[JamesMadisonSkins]

3 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

Not close for me, if I'm trading with the Raiders, I want 3 future firsts and at least another future 2nd and future 3rd on top of this year's 2nd.

They say no, I say, I'm good. 

 

The raiders are a mess of a build with some good vets, a handful of good youngsters, and mostly crap. We empty out their pockets of futures and it's like the Nets-Celtics trade from years ago, Golden Loom stuff, yes please. Im not doing it for less than a H. Walker style overpay. 

 

For the record, that was not the trade I was suggesting, not that it matters in the end as anything spurs discussion and your points are valid. 

 

My example was a 3-team trade.

 

Vegas gets #2

New England gets #13, #77, 2025 1st, Aiden O'Connell

Washington gets: #3, #44

 

LV gets 714 points in value, gives up 678

NE gets 543 (valuing AOC as a 4th), gives up 514

WAS gets 649, gives up 717

 

Of course we lose out, LV makes out, but in the end we get an additional 2nd and presumably get the guy we want anyway. 

Edited April 25 by JamesMadisonSkins

[Warhead36]

5 minutes ago, Ghost of said:

Nate Tice breaking down his thoughts on Drake Maye.  Is shocked by everyone really turning on him (at least in media) and thinks he has all the tools. Makes several good points.  

 

 

The league makes the same mistakes all the time. Its Allen and Herbert all over again. Teams are terrified of high upside but raw prospects because they don't trust their coaching and can't see the forest beyond the trees.

 

Maye will end up in New England and by 2026 be putting up Pro Bowl caliber seasons and everyone will be shouting "how the heck did we let the Patriots get good again!?"

[Ghost of]

6 minutes ago, mac8887 said:

Just curious as to what you see that might limit his ceiling? I personally don’t see much, he has a strong arm, he is accurate, and he’d be one of the top 7 athletes at the qb position in the nfl. He does need to learn to change speeds on his throws more often when needed, but I feel that can be learned. Maye for example does change speed on his throws, but when he does it, his throwing motion changes considerably and it looks more like he his aiming it rather than throwing it, and personally, I feel that this leads to some of his accuracy issues. I’m just not really seeing some major hurdle that would limit McCarthys ceiling, and I feel he might have the highest floor in the draft. I’d love to hear what you think would limit his ceiling, that way I could watch some film of him today, to see if I can see the same issue

I went back and watched more tape. Maye has an impressive (though not as good as Williams) ability to do more than just laser his throws.  McCarthy does have an issue at times but I saw plenty of throws on tape, short and intermediate (and some lofted deep) that suggest the ability is there and has been demonstrated.  

1 minute ago, BayouBrave86 said:

It’s not about the QB we draft tonight, it’s about the journey and friends we made along the way in this thread.

The real franchise QB was the fanbase of contentious louts we met along the way

[tmandoug1]

If Antonio Peirce makes that trade, he will be on the hot seat before the season even starts. High risk gamble IMHO.....

[BayouBrave86]

At this point, we should all just band together and create our own scouting and analysis service. 

[HoggLife]

1 minute ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

 

For the record, that was not the trade I was suggesting, not that it matters in the end as anything spurs discussion and your points are valid. 

 

My example was a 3-team trade.

 

Vegas gets #2

New England gets #13, #77, 2025 1st, Aiden O'Connell

Washington gets: #3, #44

I don't think Washington would move down 1 spot for #44. The would have to either give up #44 & 2026 1st, Adams or Crosby. 

[The Consigliere]

3 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

 

For the record, that was not the trade I was suggesting, not that it matters in the end as anything spurs discussion and your points are valid. 

 

My example was a 3-team trade.

 

Vegas gets #2

New England gets #13, #77, 2025 1st, Aiden O'Connell

Washington gets: #3, #44

Id want more. It's not enough. If the league consensus, wrong though I think it, is Daniels easily #2, I want more than a mid 2nd for moving to 3rd, whether I like Daniels or not. Which is funny, in dynasty, I just try to get trades done quickly, but w/this, I'd be more like my older brother, trying to strangle the life out of my trade partner to force the Godfather offer lol. 

[BurgundyBooger]

2 minutes ago, tmandoug1 said:

If Antonio Peirce makes that trade, he will be on the hot seat before the season even starts. High risk gamble IMHO.....

 

Without a good QB, you're on the hot seat every year.

[RWJ]

27 minutes ago, Dah-Dee said:

 

All is well, my friend.  Take deep breathes.  It will be ok.    

[Dah-Dee]

6 minutes ago, BayouBrave86 said:

It’s not about the QB we draft tonight, it’s about the journey and friends we made along the way in this thread.

 

Totally agree!

 

[JamesMadisonSkins]

2 minutes ago, HoggLife said:

I don't think Washington would move down 1 spot for #44. The would have to either give up #44 & 2026 1st, Adams or Crosby. 

 

Yeah, there's many ways to skin that cat. I truly think it's a difficult trade to work out. 

 

Cleanest would be for NE to get #13, #44 and O'Connel from LV, then we get #3, #77 and a 2025 1st from LV for the pick swap. 

 

A. Not sure NE would do that without a future 1st

B. If you add a future 1st to NE from LV, that makes this trade really tough to execute, since I don't think LV gives up 13, 44, 77, 2025 1st and 2026 1st PLUS a player

 

If NE likes O'Connell to try and groom and build around as a stop-gap option, they may value him enough to make a deal like that go down without future picks involved. Then that leaves the future picks to us.

[skeenzfan]

8 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

 

For the record, that was not the trade I was suggesting, not that it matters in the end as anything spurs discussion and your points are valid. 

 

My example was a 3-team trade.

 

Vegas gets #2

New England gets #13, #77, 2025 1st, Aiden O'Connell

Washington gets: #3, #44

 

LV gets 714 points in value, gives up 678

NE gets 543 (valuing AOC as a 4th), gives up 514

WAS gets 649, gives up 717

 

Of course we lose out, LV makes out, but in the end we get an additional 2nd and presumably get the guy we want anyway. 

When was the last time we had a major 3-way trade during the NFL draft? 

[Panninho]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

I am more than good with Daniels but I'd be excited about this if it were Maye but too much smoke that its McCarthy as #2 on their board not Maye.  I'll deal with it if its McCarthy i the end, love his floor, but the ceiling doesn't get me that jazzed.

 

Am still guessing its Daniels though

 

 

 

 

I find this hard to believe. Either people really do know what we think, then the pick will obviously be Daniels based on what everyone believes. Or people have absolutely no idea what we think, then you can neglect all reports, in which case I would assume the most likely outcome is Daniels or Maye. I just don't really see a path for JJM to be picked #2.