The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[Hooper]

JLC might be the most annoying NFL insider, but it's stuff like this and what Keim seems to be hearing that make me think JJ not Maye is the other option than Daniels.

 

But really his first quote says it all. NO ONE KNOWS ANYTHING.

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2024/04/19/nfl-draft-first-round-picks/

 

“Never seen anything like it,” said a high-ranking official with one team that will be selecting a quarterback in the first round. “If anybody tells you they know how this is going to play out, they are full of s---.”

 

“Drake Maye is the biggest wild card in all of this,” said the general manager of a team that has done significant work on quarterbacks. “Some guys love him and think he could end up the best QB in this class, and some legitimately think he’s a mid-round pick.”

 

 

Two general managers told me they believe that if the Washington Commanders let the analytics guide them, McCarthy is their guess for the No. 2 pick. If the team’s coaches hold significant sway and offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury’s voice resonates, then Daniels would be the selection. Both general managers also believe Daniels would love to be a Raider.

Meanwhile, the closer we get to the draft, the more people I speak to expect the New England Patriots to keep the third overall pick and use it on a passer — and McCarthy is held in very high regard in New England.

[mac8887]

14 minutes ago, redskinss said:

 

I wonder why the Heisman is pretty indicative of future nfl success for the positions other than quarterback. 

If a running back gets it, he's almost guaranteed a solid or spectacular career but if it's a quarterback it could be joe burrow or it could be eric crouch.

 

Although very recently the quarterbacks who have gotten it do seem to have a better track record in the nfl.

The Heisman is close to becoming a qb award just like MVP. For a non qb to win the Heisman, you have to be a truly special player that had an even more truly special season.

[mac8887]

10 minutes ago, illone said:

I doubt Peters is seriously considering Daniels.

 

Jayden is a RPO Qb and operated from the SHOTGUN for his entire college career AND didn't have the film study nailed to be able to read and diagnose things pre-snap. This does not fit the profile of the type of player that Peters wins with or even has experience with.

 

Where Jayden improved greatly is post snap reads, which is great, but he still isn't ready to handle pre-snap reads, and he hasnt proven he can play under center. This is kind of a big deal.

 

For context, I took a look at Adam Peters' draft history with regards to the position.

 

Here is an exhaustive list of all QBs he was directly or indirectly involved in drafting over the years:

 

Patriots:

Kliff Kingsbury - 2003

Matt Cassell - 2005

Kevin O'Connell - 2008

 

Broncos:

Tom Brandstater - 2009

Tim Tebow - 2010

Brock Osweiler - 2012

Zac Dysert - 2013

Trevor Siemian - 2015

Paxton Lynch - 2016

 

San Fran:

CJ Beathard - 2017

Trey Lance - 2021

Brock Purdy - 2022

 

I only see two names on this list that would be considered RPO players: Tebow and Lance. (*Note: Adam Peters was a scout during the 2010 season, and Josh McDaniels gets most of the blame for the Tebow pick)

 

Peters was in New England during the first part of Brady's run, and was in Denver when Peyton Manning played there. Both pocket QBs.

 

Peters came on board with San Fran the year after Kaepernick left, and they quickly acquired Garoppolo, another pocket QB.

 

Purdy is a pocket QB.

 

Do we really think Peters is going to target an RPO player when he has never had success with that type of player before?

 

I think it's been Maye vs JJ all along and the NFL draftniks went WAY too hard in the paint with regards to Jayden Daniels. 

 

JD does not fit the Adam Peters profile. 

I’m fairly certain that Daniels played under center more at ASU than Maye ever did at UNC, or any of the other QBs coming out other than McCarthy 

[Voice_of_Reason]

53 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Something is in the water because there have been a lot more Maye predictions the last few days after it seemed like it was universal for Daniels a week ago or so.

 

Rick Spielman also came out and said the Commanders are gonna take Maye and remember he was part of our Gm search, so if anyone would know anything it'd be him.

PFF has been on Maye since the start because he grades out statistically better than Daniels almost across the board, and statistics are kindof their thing.  At least they try to make it their thing.  
 

 

[method man]

11 minutes ago, Hooper said:

JLC might be the most annoying NFL insider, but it's stuff like this and what Keim seems to be hearing that make me think JJ not Maye is the other option than Daniels.

 

But really his first quote says it all. NO ONE KNOWS ANYTHING.

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2024/04/19/nfl-draft-first-round-picks/

 

“Never seen anything like it,” said a high-ranking official with one team that will be selecting a quarterback in the first round. “If anybody tells you they know how this is going to play out, they are full of s---.”

 

“Drake Maye is the biggest wild card in all of this,” said the general manager of a team that has done significant work on quarterbacks. “Some guys love him and think he could end up the best QB in this class, and some legitimately think he’s a mid-round pick.”

 

 

Two general managers told me they believe that if the Washington Commanders let the analytics guide them, McCarthy is their guess for the No. 2 pick. If the team’s coaches hold significant sway and offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury’s voice resonates, then Daniels would be the selection. Both general managers also believe Daniels would love to be a Raider.

Meanwhile, the closer we get to the draft, the more people I speak to expect the New England Patriots to keep the third overall pick and use it on a passer — and McCarthy is held in very high regard in New England.

I absolutely buy this. I think their board is: Daniels #1 JJ #2 and Maye #3

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, AlvinWaltonIsMyBoy said:

I’ve seen several comments saying that JJ has the highest floor of these guys. I think that’s an irrelevant factor when you’re picking at 2. 
 

None of these guys’ floor is good enough to win an NFC title. 
 

Picking at 2, I think you need to draft for upside, not fear of the downside. And if JJ has the highest upside of these guys I’ll eat my hat (an old, dirty Orioles hat with the bird on it).

 

I sort of agree but its a balance.

 

We've had some freak talent QBs who have busted.   And dudes that came off talented like McCarthy but not freakishly so and ended up great.

 

I think all three of them have good upside.  I like Maye's more but that's a subjective take versus a fact. 

 

My cliff notes layman explanation for the three succeeding or failing.

 

A.  Drake Maye.  

 

Succeeds:  Competitive baller.  Can make all the throws.  Can layer and throw with touch, different speeds, etc.  Can run really well for his size.  He's just 21 will be 22 this summer and the best is yet to come.  Comes off like a good dude, good leader.  Good deep ball. Arm strength to succeed in cold weather. 

 

Fails:  Strong arm but isn't like Herbert level strong or Allen strong so is the freakish talent a bit overplayed?  A lot of focus on Daniels running but Maye also puts himself in harms way and he's not the stockiest dude so why not worries about him getting hurt?  Agree Daniels is the bigger risk as a runner though.  What if Maye's inconsistency as to accuracy off platform and on the first level is just who he is versus some kink that he will work past?   Some talk he's not big in big moments.

 

B. Jayden Daniels

 

Succeeds:  If Kyler Murray and Lamar can work why not Daniels.  He's arguably a better passer than both.  An accurate thrower with clean mechanics, who is consistent and works like crazy and might be the best runner in the league sans Lamar Jackson -- sounds exciting.  Good deep ball.  He's by most accounts a super nice guy and likeable.  Maybe can learn to protect himself ala Russell Wilson, etc.

 

Fails:  Injuries -- his frame.  What if he doesn't learn to throw more off platforn and on the 2nd level?   His mom, his agent people around him become a distraction?  Arm is just OK, so what about playoff football in cold weather?  

 

 

C. JJ McCarthy

 

Succeeds:  Only 21.  Really good accuracy.  Can make plays on the move.  Good enough arm and has wheels.  Great intangibles.  Leader.   Just 21 but with the maturity of a 30 year old. Aren't these the type of QBs we find in retrospect exceed their draft status because of big time intangibles?  If so why not get him now versus read about it years later about how he ended up the best in the class and we should have seen it coming?  Not saying this is the case but am laying out best case for all these QBs.

 

Negative:  It's also not unusual to fall for a personality of a player at the expense of talent and that doesn't always work out.   He needs to layer his throws better and change speeds.  Some say that art isn't easy to master.  He was a small dude before the combine -- we forgot about that and focused on daniels but some talk about McCarthy being sub 200 during the season.  Is his ceiling limited?

Edited April 21 by Skinsinparadise

[CapsSkins]

I'm, uh... I'm coming around on McCarthy. 😶

 

@illone what have you done to me?!

 

[ExoDus84]

2 hours ago, mistertim said:

Given your past affinities for Hieronymus Bosch I assumed you'd include one of these

 

All that hellish chaos, and bro down at the bottom gambling at the tables. Probably betting on JJ at #2.

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

From the JLC article, I totally see GMs having high variance on Maye.  
 

He has all the tools to be a more mobile Herbert with maybe a TOUCH less arm talent.  If he hits his ceiling he’s a top 5 NFl starter for a decade plus.  
 

However his inconsistent accuracy, inconsistent mechanics and playing in a lesser conference means it’s harder to figure out if he could overcome his shortcomings and learn to process quickly against NFL defenses.  
 

If he can’t, he could turn into Mitch Trubisky.  
 

I can easily see how some folks could see Maye and say “we can fix the mechanical stuff and he has all the tools, best upside of the class outside of Caleb.

 

Or say “it’s too big a risk early.”

 

This is why Maye is still my preference because I think his ceiling is higher and I prefer a QB who can win from inside the pocket.

 

But if they draft McCarthy, it’s because they also think he can win from inside the pocket but has less risk.  Which they have to get comfortable with on a really small sample size.  
 

I could see it going any which way.  
 

I will say, I REALLY didn’t love the tape I watched of McCarthy.  So if they end up drafting him, probably 2 things are true: 1. I was too harsh on him in film review. 2. They saw enough out of the post-season process to overcome some of the stuff on tape.  Because while maybe I was too harsh, there were some glaring things on tape which they will not have liked.  

Edited April 21 by Voice_of_Reason

[illone]

25 minutes ago, MartinC said:

83% of all offensive snaps last season were out of shotgun. 
 

https://lionswire.usatoday.com/2024/02/15/jared-goff-under-center-shotgun-passing-stat-splits-percentages/#

 

Interesting numbers, but it doesn't separate RPO from non-RPO, which I'd categorize Daniels as an RPO player, wouldnt you?

[Skinsinparadise]

36 minutes ago, Hooper said:

JLC might be the most annoying NFL insider, but it's stuff like this and what Keim seems to be hearing that make me think JJ not Maye is the other option than Daniels.

 

But really his first quote says it all. NO ONE KNOWS ANYTHING.

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2024/04/19/nfl-draft-first-round-picks/

 

 

 

Some draft talking heads made the same point during the combine that they heard Daniels-JJ.

 

But then that shifted back to Daniels-Maye.

 

But yeah it seems like we are back to the Daniels-JJ dynamic with some.

 

JLC was the first from what I recall who nailed the Haskins interest years ago and that Trent wanted out.  But he's been wrong too.  

 

Keim hasn't flat out said its Daniels versus JJ but it feels like he's dancing close to saying that.  But I'll wait to his next podcast to see if he gets more definitive and am reading too much into it.

 

And I'd guess the information is VERY second hand.   Like for example, Keim knew that Quinn interviewed well, knew that he was a serious candidate for the job, knew that Ben Johnson wasn't a shoo in- but it stopped there, he didn't know how it would end.  That's sort of how i take the info this time too.  He's probably heard something.  It's probably worth something in this moment.  But we don't know that its defintive.

 

But heck we got 4 days to go, so am curious to how it feels each day while being open to the idea that we likely won't know until they actually pick which is wild and fun.

 

I do think at a minimum there is a chance that Maye isn't a pick.  And if so expecting one big melt down on this thread?  But I do recall some of that with the Quinn choice and then most adjusted fast.  But will see Maye certainly could be choosen.  But none of the tea leaves makes me think this brass thinks Maye is the slam dunk choice and the alternatives are a joke in comparison that some seem to feel on this thread.

Edited April 21 by Skinsinparadise

[FootballZombie]

11 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

I will say, I REALLY didn’t love the tape I watched of McCarthy.  So if they end up drafting him, probably 2 things are true: 1. I was too harsh on him in film review. 2. They saw enough out of the post-season process to overcome some of the stuff on tape.  Because while maybe I was too harsh, there were some glaring things on tape which they will not have liked.  

 

Disturbing lack of adhesiveness to your projectile yeeting armament.

You can't thrash a dude in epic novella fashion then moonwalk it back 2 weeks later.

 

 

jk

[Voice_of_Reason]

Just for reference:

 

[Kalu44]

These NFL QB comparisons are a hoot. It’s all subjective and mostly useless for me. I mean, who wouldn’t sign up for Hebert 2.0, or Lamar Jackson with a better arm? I think the public opinion gets swayed way too much on these opinions.

 

Edited April 21 by Kalu44

[illone]

28 minutes ago, mac8887 said:

I’m fairly certain that Daniels played under center more at ASU than Maye ever did at UNC, or any of the other QBs coming out other than McCarthy 

 

Advanced college stats are tougher to come by, but I do recall plenty of him playing under center in Herm Edwards slightly more pro style system. He is still an RPO player, though. Herm even said as much in the Keim interview.

[MartinC]

9 minutes ago, illone said:

 

Interesting numbers, but it doesn't separate RPO from non-RPO, which I'd categorize Daniels as an RPO player, wouldnt you?

No. That would suggest he is limited to playing in that style. I don’t think that’s remotely true. 
 

Lots of film of him playing from the pocket without RPO. I’m still in the Drake Maye camp - but would have no concerns at all if we drafted Daniels. I think he can be scheme diverse, though it would foolish not to use his wheels in some capacity and I would expect RPOs to be a part of what you would do with him especially early.

[mac8887]

5 minutes ago, illone said:

 

Advanced college stats are tougher to come by, but I do recall plenty of him playing under center in Herm Edwards slightly more pro style system. He is still an RPO player, though. Herm even said as much in the Keim interview.

I agree, he will and should be running some version of the RPO. What does excite me about him is much much more mechanically sound and better of a passer than pretty much every other dual threat qb that has ever come out. I think he’s a good enough passer that he can just drop back and throw it if need be if his team falls behind in a game, but for the most part, for him to be successful, it will need to be in an RPO system.

 

He is already proficient in this type of offense, so that should help him to at least be a serviceable qb his rookie year. I really like him as a prospect and he’s one I’d be very excited about, but probably my third choice after Caleb and JJ.

 

 

[Redskins 2021]

I think McCarthy may be the pick if it's not Dainels. 

Edited April 21 by Redskins 2021

[Tay]

 

 

I will tuning in. I want to hear directly from him if he had issues withTop Golf

[Rufus T Firefly]

2 minutes ago, Tay said:

 

 

I will tuning in. I want to hear directly from him if he had issues withTop Golf

Be sure to update us after the gives the predictable political answer. 

[illone]

1 hour ago, CapsSkins said:

I'm, uh... I'm coming around on McCarthy. 😶

 

@illone what have you done to me?!

 

 

 

[FlyBigBeard]

I'm loving all this chatter about Daniels being upset that it wasn't just him at the visit. If true ...BIG if...that is exactly what I think Peters wanted to see who was going to get rattled/upset shows you their mental makeup and who they truly are. A Me Me guy not a team guy. If that's all true. In saying that there's lots of smoke for it not to be something there. 

[illone]

51 minutes ago, MartinC said:

No. That would suggest he is limited to playing in that style. I don’t think that’s remotely true. 
 

Lots of film of him playing from the pocket without RPO. I’m still in the Drake Maye camp - but would have no concerns at all if we drafted Daniels. I think he can be scheme diverse, though it would foolish not to use his wheels in some capacity and I would expect RPOs to be a part of what you would do with him especially early.

 

 

I think you HAVE to have RPO heavy scheme if you draft him.

 

We tried that experiment already.  Hard pass.

[Bifflog]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

I do think at a minimum there is a chance that Maye isn't a pick.  And if so expecting one big melt down on this thread?

 

I think this is a certainty, which is gonna be a shame because we have 8 more picks after that that I would love to see good discussion about that we typically would see, but there's zero chance of folks getting past that first one so I suspect the discourse will be backward-looking.  A shame, but is what it is.

[clskinsfan]

McCarthy is the only one I would be disappointed with. He is the biggest risk in the draft at QB imo. There just isnt enough tape to make an accurate assessment of him. I even went back and watched his high school stuff to find more. I will trust Peters if he makes the pick. And I will get behind it. But i would actually prefer Nix to McCarthy.