The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[dyst]

I’m now a fan of JJ McCarthy. 

[SkinsFTW]

24 minutes ago, dyst said:

I’m now a fan of JJ McCarthy. 

 

[dyst]

Ya! He just always has good form when he throws and has a nice spiral.

[FrFan]

 

https://nfltraderumors.co/nfc-rumors-jayden-daniels-j-j-mccarthy-commanders-cowboys-giants/

 

JLC thinks analytics will make them select JJ McCarthy

[SkinsFTW]

Wait wait, I thought everybody agreed that it's going to be Daniels!

[Conn]

Can we assume in here that if a mainstream tweet is from a day and a half ago, it’s probably been posted already? lol unless you caught up on the thread and saw otherwise, assume there’s already 12 pages on it 

Edited April 21 by Conn

[CapsSkins]

2 minutes ago, Conn said:

Can we assume in here that if a mainstream tweet is from a day and a half ago, it’s probably been posted aprecast? lol unless you caught up on the thread and saw otherwise, assume there’s already 12 pages on it 

 

"Already" -> "aprecast" is honestly impressive!

[SkinsFTW]

Can I take "Words that I've never heard of" for 1000?

[Panninho]

My working theory for a while has been that Keim has s source in Daniels's camp. He was the only reporter (local and national) who reported that Daniels visits alone on Tuesday and all others come in on Wednesday on the day that the 30 visists happened. Everyone else (Breer, Rapoport, Jhabvala) reported at the same time (!) that everyone will come in simultaneously. Keim even doubled down that this only applies to the evening. We all learned that that was untrue and that in fact everyone was there simultaneously and that the Daniels camp was surprised and upset. So it's pretty obvious where Keim got that info from.

Keim was also the only reporter who reported that Daniels would prefer the Commanders and Vikings. National media has since said it's the Raiders and the Vikings and that he is lukewarm about his opportunity to play here. But Keim reported his "intel" first. He is now also super definite on how this is just noise and blown out of proportion even though two national insiders (Schefter and Fowler) reported that there is smoke.

 

Yesterday he then confirmed that:

 

Keim is a real professional. He has said they lean Daniels but he doesn't want to make a definite statement because he doesn't know. No one knows with regards to GMAP. But it's pretty evident that he has good intel from the Daniels camp. How high his sources with us nowadays rank - who knows. I think we have learned by now that the Daniels camp was (and maybe still is) pretty optimistic that he is the pick at #2. I think this is where most of the buzz league-wide is coming from. With Keim, I think he must get a feeling from someone in-house that confirms this to some degree before he reports on that. However, he is still always pretty careful with his wording, so I guess it's not someone at the very top. So my guess is that that is where his "lean but don't know for sure" standpoint comes from.

[Panninho]

15 hours ago, Dah-Dee said:

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2024/story/_/id/39913882/2024-nfl-draft-jeff-legwold-ranking-top-100-prospects

 

2024 NFL draft: Jeff Legwold ranks the top 100 prospects

Jeff Legwold, ESPN Senior Writer

Apr 20, 2024, 06:00 AM ET

 

 

5. Caleb Williams, QB, USC, 6-1⅛, 214 (DNR)

Williams' improvisational skills and ability to extend plays are considered the best many scouts have seen in years. He finished his collegiate career with 120 total touchdowns and a long list of "How did he do that?" plays to go along with 14 interceptions. Williams will need to improve his decision-making when leaving the pocket (33 career fumbles) and clean up his accuracy when going deep.

 

6. Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU, 6-3¼, 210 (DNR)

Daniels threw 40 TD passes and four interceptions in his 2023 Heisman Trophy-winning season, averaging a FBS-high 11.7 yards per attempt. He also rushed for 1,184 yards and 10 TDs last season. Daniels' slight frame might concern some teams, especially since he doesn't shy away from contact. But he plays with awareness, possesses high-end decision-making skills and maintains consistent accuracy all over the field. Some NFL personnel executives have Daniels graded as high as Williams.

 

22. J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan, 6-2½, 219 (DNR)

McCarthy is not the high-volume passer other prospects on the board are -- he had 27 career games with 15 or fewer completions -- but his ability in an NFL-style scheme and his decisiveness are worthy of a long look. He doesn't always move through progressions as smoothly as others and has had a long delivery at times, but when he sees it, he drives the ball with accuracy. He will need time on the learning curve, so he might not become what he could be if he's rushed into starting.

 

23. Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina, 6-4⅜, 223 (DNR)

Maye will likely be off the board well before this pick rolls around. His physical profile in the pocket is among the best of the QBs in this class. His arm strength is not a question -- he threw 62 touchdown passes over the past two seasons -- but his accuracy has drifted at times, especially this past season. Maye doesn't always decode where the openings are in coverages and will have to find the line between bold and bad, but his biggest supporters see Justin Herbert-level potential.

 

39. Bo Nix, QB, Oregon, 6-2⅛, 214 (DNR)

You have to pause at his kind of efficiency -- he completed at least 71% of his passes in all 14 games last season. Some teams say almost a third of his attempts were thrown to receivers at or behind the line of scrimmage, but his time at Oregon elevated his game as well as his confidence. He's a tough, mobile competitor, but he will have to improve accuracy on throws when the receivers aren't facing him or crossing his face.

 

50. Michael Penix Jr., QB, Washington, 6-2¼, 216 (DNR)

With injuries to both shoulders (right in 2019 and his left throwing shoulder in 2021) and two ACL tears in his right knee, Penix's draft status is likely in the hands of medical staffs. He played two seasons at Washington without missing a game. His delivery has a hitch and his release point that is too low for some coaches' liking. But Penix is an easy passer with velocity who also displays wavering accuracy because of inconsistent footwork. Some evaluators say he is spotty at best when forced to leave the pocket.

 

94. Spencer Rattler, QB, South Carolina, 6-0¼, 211 (4.95)

There was a time, early in his college career at Oklahoma, when Rattler was being projected as the top pick in the draft. But that was before he was benched his sophomore year -- for Caleb Williams, no less. He was productive at times in two seasons in South Carolina -- 37 touchdowns, 20 interceptions -- and has earned some draft love in recent months that could get him into Day 2.

 

 

I understand that his big board is usually pretty solid when it comes to predicting NFL success and draft accuracy. However, he had e.g. Mahomes at 52, Herbert at 38, Allen at 27, Anthony Richardson at 27. I think I sense a trend with somewhat raw QBs that have almost unlimited physical potential. And I think I sense a pretty drastic disconnect to where the league actually drafts them and how they turn out. The league has changed a lot here. Teams are ready to invest into tools more than ever before. So what does this tell us about Maye? Probably, that this should be taken with a grain of salt.

[Skinsinparadise]

16 hours ago, CommanderInTheRye said:

 

 

 

Agreed.

 

Based solely on Keim's hints and your interpretation of them, do you think the ranking order is now Jayden, McCarthy at the top followed by Maye, Penix or is it still a Jayden vs Maye battle?

 

 

 

I've said eons ago I trust the draft rumors especially from Keim the most the last 2 weeks but especially the last week before the draft.  Here we are.

 

And there is definitiely a shift in the rumors.  I'll retract the idea that based on rumors @RWJ or @Koolblue13 has a better shot to be the QB here than McCarthy.  I think McCarthy might have a better shot than both now, even @Koolblue13

 

Listen to Keim's latest podcast from last night and judge.  He doubled down on the point.

 

Said he believes Daniels in the favorite.  Emojis from an agent has ZERO (emphasized zero) influence on the pick.   

 

But he goes, "he's not under the assumption this is between Jayden Daniels and Drake Maye."  You can't dismiss McCarthy." 

 

Now taken literally it doesn't mean Drake Maye isn't in the mix.  But this is round 3 of this from Keim and a tweet in an exchange with a fan.  Bram was going on about this is between Daniels and Maye on Friday and Keim chimed in and said he's not so sure about that, and threw in McCarthy

 

 

 

Edited April 21 by Skinsinparadise

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, Panninho said:

 

 

Keim is a real professional. He has said they lean Daniels but he doesn't want to make a definite statement because he doesn't know. No one knows with regards to GMAP. But it's pretty evident that he has good intel from the Daniels camp. How high his sources with us nowadays rank - who knows. I think we have learned by now that the Daniels camp was (and maybe still is) pretty optimistic that he is the pick at #2. I think this is where most of the buzz league-wide is coming from. With Keim, I think he must get a feeling from someone in-house that confirms this to some degree before he reports on that. However, he is still always pretty careful with his wording, so I guess it's not someone at the very top. So my guess is that that is where his "lean but don't know for sure" standpoint comes from.

 

While I am not in the camp that NFL observors, scout leaks, coach leaks, etc are either lies from them or they are moron evaluators, I also don't think they dictate the pick.

 

Keim has been super honest about why if he had to guess they lean Daniels.  It's purely because he spoke to a lot of people in the league and they all prefer Daniels just about and a clear tier above the others.  So if he had to guess maybe Peters feels the same way but he doesn't know. 

 

But I do agree, he's revealed he knows some people close to these QBs, not just Daniels.   So maybe that's his small confirmation for something outside of how others in the NFL rank the players?

 

The McCarthy stuff is interesting.  Wonder if its coming fom McCarthy's camp or finally from someone in the building?

 

Keim though still doesn't feel confident guessing this. But at a minimum he's talking to more people than just Jay Gruden as someone suggested.  He's flat out said he's talking mostly to current people in the NFL.  And if Keim is starting to get flimsy with his sources -- that would be the first time for him to do that let alone for anyone to assume it.  As Cooley liked to joke back in the day, Keim is almost never wrong because he waits for seven people to confirm any story-tidbit.

[KDawg]

We’re really, really, really getting off the path here.

 

Jayden Daniels is not Randall Cunningham. 
 

But comparing Drake Maye to Ben Roethlisberger is an egregious lack of understanding Drake Maye’s entire game.

 

At least Cunningham could run and throw a little. That’s ballpark Jayden.

 

But Ben was an absolute statue. He navigated the pocket fairly well and moved with pressure (something Maye doesn’t do well) but he couldn’t out athlete anyone (something Maye does do).

 

I don’t know. This draft cycle has been wild.

 

I still don’t understand why McCarthy has been discounted the entire cycle. 
 

When I first watched him I thought he sucked. Then I watched more and I saw it. Dude is highly skilled.

 

I can’t wait for draft night. More so to see what kind of made up gibberish comes out of the media and others because they don’t like who we picked, whoever it may be

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

20 minutes ago, KDawg said:

We’re really, really, really getting off the path here.

 

Jayden Daniels is not Randall Cunningham. 
 

But comparing Drake Maye to Ben Roethlisberger is an egregious lack of understanding Drake Maye’s entire game.

 

At least Cunningham could run and throw a little. That’s ballpark Jayden.

 

But Ben was an absolute statue. He navigated the pocket fairly well and moved with pressure (something Maye doesn’t do well) but he couldn’t out athlete anyone (something Maye does do).

 

I don’t know. This draft cycle has been wild.

 

I still don’t understand why McCarthy has been discounted the entire cycle. 
 

When I first watched him I thought he sucked. Then I watched more and I saw it. Dude is highly skilled.

 

I can’t wait for draft night. More so to see what kind of made up gibberish comes out of the media and others because they don’t like who we picked, whoever it may be

 

 

 

For me it was almost the opposite. I liked McCarthy, he was the first QB I touted for this draft, 2nd player I touted for the 2024 draft so if they take him I feel a bit prophetic but its more dumb luck I just happened to watch him early. 😎. And when I watched more of him it wasn't that I soured on him.  I liked him.  Touted him on and off.  But became more smitten with Maye.  And yeah Daniels, too.

 

I simply don't think he has the ceiling of Maye or Daniels.  But I do think he has less bust potential than Maye and Daniels.  And its clear as heck when you watch those three in interviews that McCarthy at least in that context is the more articulate and engaging. 

 

Who knows what they are thinking.  But am starting to get the impression, that its possible that the brass might see it between Daniels and McCarthy. I hope not. being a Maye guy -- albiet I am not one of the Maye or bust people here.  Keim isn't saying it like that but he seems to be hinting this in a peripheral way.   But not sure.  Uusually at least from Keim he gets better as to his intel as the draft approaches. And I've guessed right, and guessed wrong when it comes to Keim's hints where he doesn't flat out spell a conclusion.  But at a minimum, I am on notice on the point where am paying more attention to it.

 

I've watched all three players a ton but one thing I didn't zero in on is clutch moments.  I know Maye gets dinged for it.  Daniels and McCarthy gets praised for it.  But I haven't really studied that part of that game.  i am just trying to think of what those two QBs have in common than might exceed Maye in the eyes of this FO?   But I am probably jumping the gun on this.  I admit I'd be a bit shocked if this is Daniels or McCarthy with Maye the runner up to the 2 -- but I'll hold my breath on this some, I need to hear it more specific like that, will see.

 

Back to McCarthy, he's the best off platform thrower IMO within this group aside from Caleb.  i don't think he's the magician Maye is as to changing speeds on his throws among other things.

 

I'll give McCarthy this i was rewatching Roman Wilson yesterday morning, every throw in his direction.  And it was one dime after dime -- bulls eye accuracy.

 

 

Edited April 21 by Skinsinparadise

[FootballZombie]

We have not gotten new game film so it would take things of titanic proportions to get me to change my general outlook.

How I feel now is about the same as how I felt after I first studied these guys. 

 

 

Nothing wrong with being open to change mind you, I just don't see us swimming in new information to catalyst that kind of thing is all.

[skinsfan66]

9 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

Roethlisberger didn't really get beaten up until the end of his career. He was also a much better QB than Cunningham. Not sure why all of a sudden we're talking like Randall freaking Cunningham is some god's gift to QB-ing. 

If you wanted to sack big Ben you better bring your A game and if you were a DB, small LB most the time it did not happen. I would take him over Randall without much thought. Give me the tough QB not the fragile one.

[skinsfan66]

9 hours ago, SkinsFTW said:

 

Umm

 

That's looks like a small DB that popped him too.   

[CommanderInTheRye]

2 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I've said eons ago I trust the draft rumors especially from Keim the most the last 2 weeks but especially the last week before the draft.  Here we are.

 

And there is definitiely a shift in the rumors.  I'll retract the idea that based on rumors @RWJ or @Koolblue13 has a better shot to be the QB here than McCarthy.  I think McCarthy might have a better shot than both now, even @Koolblue13

 

Listen to Keim's latest podcast from last night and judge.  He doubled down on the point.

 

Said he believes Daniels in the favorite.  Emojis from an agent has ZERO (emphasized zero) influence on the pick.   

 

But he goes, "he's not under the assumption this is between Jayden Daniels and Drake Maye."  You can't dismiss McCarthy." 

 

Now taken literally it doesn't mean Drake Maye isn't in the mix.  But this is round 3 of this from Keim and a tweet in an exchange with a fan.  Bram was going on about this is between Daniels and Maye on Friday and Keim chimed in and said he's not so sure about that, and threw in McCarthy

 

 

 

 

 

I wish we had a "wow" emoji. lol

 

Who would have imagined just a week ago that our final decision might come down to choosing between McCarthy and Daniels-- with Maye possibly out of consideration and McCarthy possibly leading down the final stretch?

 

Metaphorically, this could be a major seismic event that shifts the draft's tectonic plates-- the equivalent of southern California dropping into the ocean. 

 

I haven't listened to either of Keim's last two broadcasts yet-- but it's on today's agenda now, for sure.

 

Looks like I picked the right time to surrender my will and just trust AP, DQ, JH and "the process" with no emotional ties to any of the prospects.

 

If I hadn't, I'd be taking a trip to Munch-ville right now...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

T minus 4 days and counting...

 

Edited April 21 by CommanderInTheRye

[tmandoug1]

If we pick McCarthy at number two I will automatically assume that the Snyder curse is still in place and somewhere in the facility there is a voodoo doll lying there laughing. 

[CommanderInTheRye]

3 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

I'll give McCarthy this i was rewatching Roman Wilson yesterday morning, every throw in his direction.  And it was one dime after dime -- bulls eye accuracy.

 

 

Consistent accuracy, combined with fast processing, poise in the pocket, and a quick delivery, leads to an efficient offense. 

 

At his best McCarthy could be that surgeon driving his team, with total command of Kingsburry's offense, smoothly down the field, that every qb needy team is looking for.

 

Dare I say-- he could possibly be a taller, more athletic, stronger armed, Brock Purdy??? (CITR ducks for cover as rotten tomatoes are tossed at him)

 

 

 

 

Edited April 21 by CommanderInTheRye

[FootballZombie]

24 minutes ago, CommanderInTheRye said:

If I hadn't, I'd be taking a trip to Munch-ville right now...

 

Hey now, its always a great time to go to munch-ville... as to which I mean snacks.

 

 

I find myself just grabbing a handful of things that are less than good for me and catching up w/ the various surges in the thread. Even binge a few of the posted vids. Good times.

 

 

That being said I am like getting alarmingly more chill getting closer and closer to draft day. You'd think it would be the opposite.

Honestly its a bit concerning. Need a little stress to get the heart racing. Spice up life a bit.

 

Maybe I just feel good about the position we are in. Who knows.

[FrFan]

Fwiw and credible ?

 

 

[illone]

8 hours ago, Llevron said:

I mean he does ask the sidelines for some info. I don’t know what it is but you can clearly see him on some plays looking for help from the sideline. Not sure it’s a big deal but it is indeed a data point. 

 

Its because he isnt prepared enough with the front to check into the right play.  
 

You’ll probably see less of this in college moving forward because they just approved helmet communications, but up until now if the qb doesnt know what to do he has to look at “hand signals” from the sideline. 
 

Another reason to like JJ. That kid is already calling successful audibles on his own, and always getting into the right play to convert 3rd downs (best 3rd down QB efficiency in FBS)

 

SIP posted this above, but here is the video version

 

You can REALLY see the Mich and OSU bias here. Not saying it should be discounted, but it is obvious. 

5 minutes ago, FrFan said:

Fwiw and credible ?

 

 

 

Check the date on that tweet, its about a month old. 
 

back then most here dismissed it quickly. I think if you did a poll, a higher percentage would think its more viable now. 

[CommanderInTheRye]

Man, a minimal $20 wager, right now, that McCarthy will be our pick is a great value proposition.

 

It's not likely to happen, but that doesn't matter. 

 

What matters most in evaluating a betting proposition is whether or not you believe the odds of an event occurring is higher or lower than the betting odds offered, and to what degree.

 

And right now (before the odds adjust)  I see an edge. 

 

DISCLAIMER:

The preceding post was completely hypothetical. Betting is a bad thing. I would never seriously advise anyone to wager on a sporting event. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited April 21 by CommanderInTheRye

[mac8887]

2 hours ago, KDawg said:

We’re really, really, really getting off the path here.

 

Jayden Daniels is not Randall Cunningham. 
 

But comparing Drake Maye to Ben Roethlisberger is an egregious lack of understanding Drake Maye’s entire game.

 

At least Cunningham could run and throw a little. That’s ballpark Jayden.

 

But Ben was an absolute statue. He navigated the pocket fairly well and moved with pressure (something Maye doesn’t do well) but he couldn’t out athlete anyone (something Maye does do).

 

I don’t know. This draft cycle has been wild.

 

I still don’t understand why McCarthy has been discounted the entire cycle. 
 

When I first watched him I thought he sucked. Then I watched more and I saw it. Dude is highly skilled.

 

I can’t wait for draft night. More so to see what kind of made up gibberish comes out of the media and others because they don’t like who we picked, whoever it may be

 

 

I personally believe McCarthy has a higher floor than both Jayden and Drake, and I don’t see anything that would limit his ceiling compared to the other 2 either. But what I like most about him compared to the other 2 is how he moves in the pocket to avoid pressure. 
 

Drake drifts away from pressure, and quite often right into pressure, he also tries to out run pressure, and while he is a good athlete, and that worked well for him in college, I don’t think he is quick enough to consistently out run edge rushers or OLBs in the nfl. 
 

Jayden doesn’t drift like Maye does, but for the most part he’s stationary at the top of his drop, until it’s time to take off. I do believe he can out run the pressure, but he is not great at giving himself room in the pocket to make a throw if need be.

 

JJ, I think has shown the ability more than the others to make a quick side step to avoid rushers to get enough room to make a throw. Drew Brees was the best I’ve ever seen doing this, and I believe JJ has some of that in him. He doesn’t do it all the time, but he definitely has shown the ability to do it more so than the other 2.