The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[ThatNFLChick]

Just now, MartinC said:

You think he magically became an elite runner when he got to the NFL? That some amazing coaching.

 

Again. We disagree. I'm not calling anyone who never even rushed for 500 yards in a single season in college an elite runner in college. To each their own. 

[Warhead36]

1 minute ago, seantaylor=god said:

I appreciate the link to the all 22 breakdown of Jayden Daniels by Chase Daniels. It does have some nice examples of going through his reads. My issues I can’t shake with him (the build and long term health, the fact that it took him this long to put it together, the stacked team) That’s something the FO will need to feel comfortable with.

 

For folks who are negative on Maye, I would really encourage you to go watch 2022 highlights and compare it to 2023. He was insanely productive at a young age, and you can see how he performs with a better pocket. 

 

This year, you got to see what he does when the oline fails him (still makes plays and looks pretty good!) 

 

I truly think this is a historic class and all will be successful if they find the right team fit because their intangibles/work ethic appear top notch. 

 

 

The thing with Mayes “bad” year is that it wasnt even that bad. His numbers are still quite good. And for all the hero ball stuff, he didnt throw very many interceptions and his turnover throw rate is super low despite also having a very high big play throw rate. Hell throw some WTF incometions, mainly because his degree of difficulty is higher than everyone else’s because of the crap supporting cast, but he doesnt really put the ball in harms way.

[Number 44]

22 minutes ago, BMagic said:

24% pressure to sack ratio is unplayable in the NFL, would absolutely have to be mitigated. If he can maintain a higher playing weight, he'll be able to brush off more sack attempts as well.

I read that that stat doesn't include scrambles.  If that is true, it is a useless stat.  If the QB scrambles away from pressure and makes a positive play, it doesn't count?  LOL.  Who comes up with stats like this?

[CommanderInTheRye]

7 minutes ago, DogofWar1 said:

 

One said "I had a lean that it was gonna be Daniels" and "To me, it feels like Washington is gonna be calling Baton Rouge in about a month," and the other "I've been on Jayden Daniels for a while."

 

My interpretation of that is that those are their personal views, especially since Finley circles back and says "I don't know, I don't think they've finalized anything," so it doesn't seem to be based on sourcing, but rather their own views, otherwise they'd probably say something like "from what I'm hearing" or "the rumors are."

 

 

I get you,  and I noticed that as well.

 

What gives me pause though is whether or not they are saying those things to protect their source.

 

Case in point, JP used the same or very similar language (if memory serves) during the ownership fight with respect to Harris being the candidate to watch. He never admitted he had an inside source, but I always had a "feeling" that this was more than just his best guess.

 

Who knows though?

 

 

Edited March 30 by CommanderInTheRye

[Fred Jones]

IMHO, it is a three horse race for the first two picks.  The media wants JJ to be in the mix, but he isn't.  Williams/ Daniels/Maye will go the first two picks.

 

For us, since the Bears are taking Williams, is it Daniels or Maye?  3-4 more weeks of speculation.

 

I just hope the FO picks the best QB for the franchise.

 

To add my two cents to the discussion about how a franchise ruins a QB, I think it is still about the QB himself.  If the guy doesn't want to put in work, doesn't have the cognitive ability to handle NFL defenses, and is just not an NFL QB, doesn't matter what situation they are in.  An NFL staff can only do so much.

[seantaylor=god]

2 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

The thing with Mayes “bad” year is that it wasnt even that bad. His numbers are still quite good. And for all the hero ball stuff, he didnt throw very many interceptions and his turnover throw rate is super low despite also having a very high big play throw rate. Hell throw some WTF incometions, mainly because his degree of difficulty is higher than everyone else’s because of the crap supporting cast, but he doesnt really put the ball in harms way.

Yeah, that’s what’s crazy to me. Normally you wouldn’t have so many people calling someone “raw” or a “project” when he put up great numbers, then lost playmakers and oline and changed offenses and just played well. At his age! And the tools! 
 

It just feels like Josh Allen all over again.  

[Warhead36]

5 minutes ago, Number 44 said:

I read that that stat doesn't include scrambles.  If that is true, it is a useless stat.  If the QB scrambles away from pressure and makes a positive play, it doesn't count?  LOL.  Who comes up with stats like this?

im pretty sure itd count, but again its one of those stats that you have to analyze in conjunction with watching the tape. Not all pressures and sacks come from the same circumstances.

[ThatNFLChick]

I don't understand why people don't see why teams care less about 2022. Mac Jones had a very good rookie year and took the Patriots to the playoffs and nobody cares about that now, just 2 years later. This is very much a "what have you done for me lately" league.

 

Sam Howell had a great 2020 and was talked about everywhere before his final season as a surefire 1st round pick...then his final year happened and nobody cares about that tape from the year before. It was all about his most recent tape. 

 

Nobody cared about Burrow's tape besides his final season - there are a ton of examples.

Edited March 30 by ThatNFLChick

[Warhead36]

2 minutes ago, seantaylor=god said:

Yeah, that’s what’s crazy to me. Normally you wouldn’t have so many people calling someone “raw” or a “project” when he put up great numbers, then lost playmakers and oline and changed offenses and just played well. At his age! And the tools! 
 

It just feels like Josh Allen all over again.  

Maye is nowhere near as raw as people think. Can he benefit from sitting? Sure. But he also needs live reps to get a feel for the speed of defenses and figure out what throws he can and cant get away with.

 

Its like Peyton Manning his rookie year. Yeah he threw a ton of picks but just watching you can tell he was going to be a stud and it was just a matter of him figuring out the NFL game speed. Not saying Maye is gonna be Manning, but I could see him having a similar type of learning curve since hes also a super aggressive down the middle of the field passer.

[DogofWar1]

2 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

The thing with Mayes “bad” year is that it wasnt even that bad. His numbers are still quite good. And for all the hero ball stuff, he didnt throw very many interceptions and his turnover throw rate is super low despite also having a very high big play throw rate. Hell throw some WTF incometions, mainly because his degree of difficulty is higher than everyone else’s because of the crap supporting cast, but he doesnt really put the ball in harms way.

 

I wish drops were tracked somewhere a little more thoroughly or at least more publicly.  IIRC I thought I saw somewhere that he had like an 8%+ drop rate versus a national average of 4.X% but I dunno if that's accurate.

 

 But it's well known that his teammates dropped balls all the time, likely well above average, and how different is this conversation if instead of 8.X% drop rate it's like 5.X% and he jumps an extra 13ish completions, to a 66-67% completion rate, adds another 175ish yards to his total and maybe another couple TDs.att  

 

A 282/425 att/comp rate for 66.3% completion, with 3783 yards and a 26 TD to 9 INT stat line isn't THAT radically different than 269/425 63.3% 3608 yard 24 TD 9 INT stat line, but we start creeping away from the yellow lines (low 60s% completion rate, sub 3-1 ratio TD/INT rate) back towards green zones.

[Llevron]

13 minutes ago, seantaylor=god said:

I appreciate the link to the all 22 breakdown of Jayden Daniels by Chase Daniels. It does have some nice examples of going through his reads. My issues I can’t shake with him (the build and long term health, the fact that it took him this long to put it together, the stacked team) That’s something the FO will need to feel comfortable with.

The small frame and health concerns, though never materialized in the SEC I think are very valid. Especially when you consider what happened to the last QB here who he reminds you of in all the wrong ways. Dude IS small. I mean, he’s well put together….lean and what not. But he looks like his bones will break if he takes the wrong hit. And more running leads to more possibilities there. That **** is not made up. 
 

I am trying to personally understand the one read and run thing, as I literally do not see it. Just like I didn’t see Mayes arm strength. I say didn’t cause there was one angle of the ball coming out of his hands at the pro day that I saw last night (buddies get together, drink, discuss this ****) that literally made me say woah and then I got it lol. But I get it now! 

[MartinC]

14 minutes ago, ThatNFLChick said:

 

Again. We disagree. I'm not calling anyone who never even rushed for 500 yards in a single season in college an elite runner in college. To each their own. 

Seriously, you don’t see the difference between ability/trait and the system they played in and how they were used? 
 

Fields always had elite rushing ability. It didn't suddenly develop when he got to the NFL, it just wasn’t used much in College.

[Llevron]

18 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

The thing with Mayes “bad” year is that it wasnt even that bad. His numbers are still quite good. And for all the hero ball stuff, he didnt throw very many interceptions and his turnover throw rate is super low despite also having a very high big play throw rate. Hell throw some WTF incometions, mainly because his degree of difficulty is higher than everyone else’s because of the crap supporting cast, but he doesnt really put the ball in harms way.

That’s not true. He threw some very stupid picks. I can cut up one specifically that makes ZERO sense if you want. That said he has all the athletic skill to think he can do it and has only started 2 seasons….every player his age does it. It’s almost expected. It’s wasn’t all just his bad supporting cast though, is my point. (And his supporting cast was horrible. Just horrible) 

Edited March 30 by Llevron

[Jumbo]

6 minutes ago, MartinC said:

You think he magically became an elite runner when he got to the NFL?

  

Maybe he did. TNC has lots of sources.🤔

 

 

[redskinss]

7 minutes ago, ThatNFLChick said:

I don't understand why people don't see why teams care less about 2022. Mac Jones had a very good rookie year and took the Patriots to the playoffs and nobody cares about that now, just 2 years later. This is very much a "what have you done for me lately" league.

 

Sam Howell had a great 2020 and was talked about everywhere before his final season as a surefire 1st round pick...then his final year happened and nobody cares about that tape from the year before. It was all about his most recent tape. 

 

You seem to be involved in two live debates right now.

 

One is that Justin Fields was not an elite runner in college and therefore that is the tape that should be used in a debate to determine whether he's an elite runner or not and how he comps to other running quarterbacks and another that suggests it's all about what have you done for me lately. 

 

You're twisting yourself into a pretzel here.

[rockluc]

5 minutes ago, Llevron said:

The small frame and health concerns, though never materialized in the SEC I think are very valid. Especially when you consider what happened to the last QB here who he reminds you of in all the wrong ways. Dude IS small. I mean, he’s well put together….lean and what not. But he looks like his bones will break if he takes the wrong hit. And more running leads to more possibilities there. That **** is not made up. 
 

I am trying to personally understand the one read and run thing, as I literally do not see it. Just like I didn’t see Mayes arm strength. I say didn’t cause there was one angle of the ball coming out of his hands at the pro day that I saw last night (buddies get together, drink, discuss this ****) that literally made me say woah and then I got it lol. But I get it now! 

If we draft Daniels I’m going to need a Xanax before every game. I can’t stop thinking of him taking off and getting folded up like an accordion.  🤮 

[ThatNFLChick]

4 minutes ago, redskinss said:

 

You seem to be involved in two live debates right now.

 

One is that Justin Fields was not an elite runner in college and therefore that is the tape that should be used in a debate to determine whether he's an elite runner or not and how he comps to other running quarterbacks and another that suggests it's all about what have you done for me lately. 

 

You're twisting yourself into a pretzel here.

 

What? These are two totally seperate subjects. 

 

1. Justin Fields was not an elite runner in college to me. 

 

2. The league as a whole cares a lot less about tape from the previous season than they do a prospect's most current tape. 

 

What is it that people find confusing here? 

Edited March 30 by ThatNFLChick

[Llevron]

16 minutes ago, Fred Jones said:

IMHO, it is a three horse race for the first two picks.  The media wants JJ to be in the mix, but he isn't.  Williams/ Daniels/Maye will go the first two picks.

 

For us, since the Bears are taking Williams, is it Daniels or Maye?  3-4 more weeks of speculation.

 

I just hope the FO picks the best QB for the franchise.

 

To add my two cents to the discussion about how a franchise ruins a QB, I think it is still about the QB himself.  If the guy doesn't want to put in work, doesn't have the cognitive ability to handle NFL defenses, and is just not an NFL QB, doesn't matter what situation they are in.  An NFL staff can only do so much.

All of these guys can do it. The more I watch the more they are the same. Physical traits differ, but they are all good QBs. We couldn’t have picked a better draft to be in the position honestly. And I think #2 is better than #1. 
 

One you HAVE to take Williams pretty much. But I think both JD and Maye, with coaching, can do everything he can do. So that leave us with the ability to take the guy we like. We don’t HAVE to take Williams. Maybe that’s stupid. 

[MartinC]

Just now, ThatNFLChick said:

 

What? These are two totally seperate subjects. 

 

1. Justin Fields was not an elite runner in college to me. 

 

2. The leage as a whole cares a lot less about tape from the previous season than they do a prospects most current tape. 

 

What is it that people find confusing here? 

Right now, you.

[Conn]

20 minutes ago, ThatNFLChick said:

I don't understand why people don't see why teams care less about 2022. Mac Jones had a very good rookie year and took the Patriots to the playoffs and nobody cares about that now, just 2 years later. This is very much a "what have you done for me lately" league.

 

Sam Howell had a great 2020 and was talked about everywhere before his final season as a surefire 1st round pick...then his final year happened and nobody cares about that tape from the year before. It was all about his most recent tape. 

 

Nobody cared about Burrow's tape besides his final season - there are a ton of examples.

You are fundamentally wrong. Elite production at a young age in college is a huge predictor of future success in the NFL. The younger the breakout, the better. Even for players who then have a down year in comparison. 
 

Of course there are cases of players breaking out in their final years. But you have way more Kenny Picketts than Joe Burrows. There are exceptions to every rule though (and we tend to be able to name them off the top of our heads for a reason).
 

The same generally goes for players who have great rookie seasons, it portends that they have a higher chance at being great NFL players. Mac Jones did not have a great rookie season, never mind elite. He was fine. He was competent and didn’t hurt the team too much. He was a game manager. It’s a poor comparison for what we’re talking about. You do this a lot.

Edited March 30 by Conn

[Llevron]

1 minute ago, rockluc said:

If we draft Daniels I’m going to need a Xanax before every game. I can’t stop thinking of him taking off and getting folded up like an accordion.  🤮 

He runs out of bounds and takes less hits than those highlights make you think. He takes some wicked hits hanging in the pocket to throw it though. Have seen a few where I didn’t think he would get up. Not gonna be fun to watch

[illone]

6 minutes ago, MartinC said:

Seriously, you don’t see the difference between ability/trait and the system they played in and how they were used? 
 

Fields always had elite rushing ability. It didn't suddenly develop when he got to the NFL, it just wasn’t used much in College.

 

Same argument for JJ when it comes to throwing. 
 

😎

[HTTRDynasty]

1 hour ago, CommanderInTheRye said:

 

 

That kick, if missed,  changes everything:

 

1. Sam Howell is probably still on the team.

 

2. If QBs go in the first 4 picks as projected by some. We either take Alt or the receiver that Peters likes most, OR we trade down, acquire multiple picks, including a one next year, AND we draft Michael Penix Jr., with a later pick in the first round.

 

Only time (and the future health and performance of Penix) will tell, whether or not this might have been better for us, in the long run, than having the second pick overall.

 

 

Peters wouldn’t even be here, tbh. 

[Llevron]

Just now, HTTRDynasty said:

Peters wouldn’t even be here, tbh. 

Scary thought 

[MartinC]

1 minute ago, illone said:

 

Same argument for JJ when it comes to throwing. 
 

😎

For sure. No argument.