The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[Lombardi's_kid_brother]

35 minutes ago, FootballZombie said:

 

Speed, athleticism and escapability is a hindrance in this case to a degree.

Dudes w/ uber rushing ability or athleticism have much less incentive to give up on a play, and are much more likely to do things that make opportunities for sacks increase.

 

If a play breaks down or there is nothing there, Guys w/ wheels are much less likely to just throw a ball away. They are gonna pull it down and try to make something outta it.

Big dudes can hang around a bit longer in the pocket and throw a pass with guys hanging onto them.

 

I don't care how athletic you are tho, that's gonna result in extra sacks. Your not getting away every time.

 

 

Caleb Williams is a great example of this. Dudes got a legit spidey sense in the pocket and is great at avoiding pressure, yet he took a bazillion sacks this year. Why? Not because hes not athletic enough to avoid it or he lacks the instincts necessary, it because he tries to keep every play alive and it does not matter how good you are at it, that spikes your numbies....

 

 

Unless your Patrick Mahomie...

 

 

Honestly, all three of the big 3 suck raw eggs at that Pressure to Sack statistic and its directly because they are all athletic.

Daniels was like 20% last year. Maye was like 19 and Williams was like 18.

 

One of the big issues is that the raw athleticism in QBs tends to disappear faster than with anyone else. This was part of the RGIII journey. I think he came back entirely too soon from the ACL injury, but that's not really the issue. The issue was he kept trying to play like he still had the same insane athelticism after the injury as he had before it. Even if it was 5 percent decline, it made a massive difference,

 

Mahomes is interesting because he's insanely athletic but in weird ways. Honestly, he's a lot like Roethlsberger. In that both had incredible feet and an ability to throw from any angle and any situation with zip and accuracy.

 

Mahomes currently runs like he has a dump in his pants, but he also seems to be able to do calculus while running from a coked-out line backer and knows exactly how to get to the first down marker before his knee is turned into confetti.

 

Lamar Jackson seems to bet the exception that proves the rule here by the way.

[woodpecker]

16 minutes ago, FootballZombie said:

 

P2S does not care about how often you are pressured.

It cares about how often you are sacked when pressured. That could be 2 times a game or 20.

 

 

If your referring to sack rate, I believe Jayden's was lower than Maye's last year, but that can obviously be massively aided by a good Oline

Having a bad O line leads to extra secondary pressure making it much more difficult to avoid a sack in cases where you manage to escape the first pass rusher. A good line affords more time to find a receiver, or just throw the ball away, after avoiding the initial rush. 

[Warhead36]

6 minutes ago, Panninho said:

Looking at some highlights, I am actually not so sure that Daniels' rushing ability will seamlessly translate to the NFL. If I look at the league today, the best rusher is obviously Lamar (who is incredibly fast and agile) but in that second tier you got Jalen Hurts & Josh Allen (strong as hell) and then probably Kyler Murray & Patrick Mahomes (who are incredibly shifty and manipulate defenders as well as anyone). Anthony Richardson who has only played a handful of games is also extremely strong. These guys do not look like Jayden Daniles rushing out there.

I feel like also historically, the strong guys (like Cam Newton) or the shifty guys (like Russell Wilson) give you a big sustainable advantage.

 

Jayden Daniels is really fast but I don't really see a lot of wiggle and lateral agility. To me it seems like he needs a lot of room to run efficiently. Kind of similar to Justin Fields (who is probably just as fast but 30lbs heavier). So I also feel like for him, to efficiently use his rushing ability he needs to scare defenses with his passing ability. That would create that room. That's also the reason to me why other fast QBs like Malik Willis for example were never able to showcase their rushing ability at that level. They just do not scare teams with their arm. RG3 was kind of similar but Shannahan crafted the read option offense where defenses failed to create answers for a while. But the league has adapted. I don't think pure speed from the QB position gives you a comparable advantage as it did back then.

 

So the question you kind of have to answer is can you expect him to bring that rushing element to the league? Beyond just weight concerns, I am not sure whether I believe that to be true.

 

 

Yep agreed. Daniels mobility wise is more RG3. Great straight line speed and if he gets to the edge he's gone but he doesn't make guys miss with much wiggle and his size means guys will never bounce off him the way they bounce off guys like Allen and Hurts.

 

You can still use his rushing as a weapon but his combination of size and lack of wiggle means its extremely risky.

2 minutes ago, Lombardi's_kid_brother said:

 

One of the big issues is that the raw athleticism in QBs tends to disappear faster than with anyone else. This was part of the RGIII journey. I think he came back entirely too soon from the ACL injury, but that's not really the issue. The issue was he kept trying to play like he still had the same insane athelticism after the injury as he had before it. Even if it was 5 percent decline, it made a massive difference,

 

Mahomes is interesting because he's insanely athletic but in weird ways. Honestly, he's a lot like Roethlsberger. In that both had incredible feet and an ability to throw from any angle and any situation with zip and accuracy.

 

Mahomes currently runs like he has a dump in his pants, but he also seems to be able to do calculus while running from a coked-out line backer and knows exactly how to get to the first down marker before his knee is turned into confetti.

 

Lamar Jackson seems to bet the exception that proves the rule here by the way.

Mahomes isn't really athletic in the traditional sense. His body contorts in weird ways though and his arm is so ridiculous that he can make every throw from every body position. He's just a unicorn and nobody should ever be compared to him. He's basically the NFL's Steph Curry. He's revolutionized the game and the position but if you draft guys thinking they can hit 40 foot 3s like Curry you're gonna be disappointed.

 

But you're right about QB athleticism fading fast. Lamar Jackson is 27 and his speed has already dropped off a bit. He's still plenty fast and has lots of wiggle but he's actually not quite as dynamic a runner as he was when he first won MVP(but his passing has improved by a lot to kinda make up for it).

 

That's another issue with Daniels's age. He'll already be 24 his rookie year. That means you're really only getting like four years before the mobility and speed start to drop off.

[SoCalSkins]

7 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

It would be pretty wild if the Vikes could move up into the top 5, while keeping one of their 1rsts and then trade up with us for the 2 1rsts this year and one next year and we come out of it with JJ and our LT this year, while keeping the other 5 top 100 picks and having a second 1rst next year.

How would they move up from 11 to 5 without giving up 23 or next year’s first? Trade Jefferson? Then trade a top 5 pick, number 23 and first next year to move to 2? Doesn’t seem plausible. 
 

Peters can miss on a QB at 2 and be forgiven but he trades back and gets a bust and the guy he passed becomes a franchise QB that’s not something that’s easily forgotten or forgiven. I don’t see any scenario where he moves down. 

[skinny21]

The pressure to sack info makes me curious about avg yards lost on sacks for these guys…

 

Also makes me wonder about usage of check downs and hot throws - two things that are obviously crucial in the NFL, but seem to me to be more wrapped into philosophy/attitude in the college ranks.  Whether that’s the system, coaching style, or qb attitude - including holding out for the big play or maybe believing your running is more dangerous than a check down.  Seems to me that “take what the defense gives you” aspect is a tough transition for a lot of college qbs.  To be clear though, I don’t watch much college ball, so I’m basically making **** up based on my impressions.

Edited March 19 by skinny21

[Warhead36]

2 minutes ago, SoCalSkins said:

 

Peters can miss on a QB at 2 and be forgiven but he trades back and gets a bust and the guy he passed becomes a franchise QB that’s not something that’s easily forgotten or forgiven. I don’t see any scenario where he moves down. 

This is 100% correct. If he takes Maye or even Daniels and they bust, so be it. Heck even if you take one, they bust, and the other hits, I wouldn't kill him too much. But if you pass on both to trade down and either or both hit, I'd fire him on the spot unless he happens to hit on a QB with a later pick.

1 minute ago, skinny21 said:

Makes me curious about avg yards lost on sacks for these guys…

 

IIRC Kevin Sheehan talked about this on the radio a few weeks ago or so but can't remember the conclusion.

 

I do know that that was an issue with Howell. He didn't just take a lot of sacks, his sacks were devastating. Like 8+ yards lost everytime.

[FootballZombie]

9 minutes ago, woodpecker said:

Having a bad O line leads to extra secondary pressure making it much more difficult to avoid a sack in cases where you manage to escape the first pass rusher. A good line affords more time to find a receiver, or just throw the ball away, after avoiding the initial rush. 

 

Pressure is pressure and it comes out in the wash.

 

Its not like one guys Oline lets one guy thru while stonewalling everybody else but the other unit is so bad that they release 5 guys to the QB every play and accidentally teleport summon a 6th rusher from the stands to take a free shot at the QB.

 

We don't have to pretend that Caleb's or Maye's Oline was sending multiple free rushers every play.

 

The Big 3 were pretty objectively bad at the P2S rate stat in college.

Very high likely-hood they will be bad at it in the NFL too. Its the nature of being a player that keeps plays alive.

 

It is what it is.

Edited March 19 by FootballZombie

[Koolblue13]

6 minutes ago, SoCalSkins said:

How would they move up from 11 to 5 without giving up 23 or next year’s first? Trade Jefferson? Then trade a top 5 pick, number 23 and first next year to move to 2? Doesn’t seem plausible. 
 

Peters can miss on a QB at 2 and be forgiven but he trades back and gets a bust and the guy he passed becomes a franchise QB that’s not something that’s easily forgotten or forgiven. I don’t see any scenario where he moves down. 

IDK, that's why I said it would be wild. 

[skinny21]

6 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

This is 100% correct. If he takes Maye or even Daniels and they bust, so be it. Heck even if you take one, they bust, and the other hits, I wouldn't kill him too much. But if you pass on both to trade down and either or both hit, I'd fire him on the spot unless he happens to hit on a QB with a later pick.

IIRC Kevin Sheehan talked about this on the radio a few weeks ago or so but can't remember the conclusion.

 

I do know that that was an issue with Howell. He didn't just take a lot of sacks, his sacks were devastating. Like 8+ yards lost everytime.

Not that it really matters, but I presume that was in reference to Howell last year, not in college?

 

 

[CommanderInTheRye]

3 hours ago, Chump Bailey said:

 

That's a term I first heard by our beloved Coach Gibbs when describing Campbell's flaws. I take it to mean a QB that senses pressure that is not an imminent threat and deviates from the designed play. 

 

 

The above quote was about the meaning of the descriptive term --Rabbit Ears-- with respect to football.

 

When I first saw the post talking about rabbit ears the only thing that came to mind was this old boy from back in the day...

 

 

 

 

 

I don't recall ever using or hearing that term used before in a football context, but your answer is logical and makes perfect sense. :kudos:

 

Going forward I'm using "rabbit ears" as a pejorative, to describe the behavior of a qb who is skittish or over-reactive in the pocket and bails or otherwise gives up on the play too quickly.

 

 

XXXXXXX

 

 

We interrupt this regularly scheduled program for a brief  break from our sponsors at Mutal of Omaha's Wild Kingdom (only the other old geezers on the forum will get that reference) lol...

 

 

Though rabbits rank well below the animals with the most evolved and precise sense of hearing (bats, dolphins and surprisingly elephants)  very few wild animals use their hearing to greater effect in avoiding predators.

 

Interesting Google result follows...

 

 

 

 

.

 

 

[Dah-Dee]

Well now I want the first human transplant of rabbit ears. Super hearing plus rotationalizing plus the cherry on top in built-in A/C?? Yes please.

[FootballZombie]

13 minutes ago, skinny21 said:

The pressure to sack info makes me curious about avg yards lost on sacks for these guys…

 

Its been covered.

Here ya go:

 

https://www.audacy.com/theteam980/sports/washington-commanders/kevin-sheehan-talks-jayden-daniels-nfl-draft-pressure-sack

 

- Michigan's JJ McCarthy's average was 8.05 yards lost per sack

- Williams' average was 7.82 yards lost per sack

- Maye's average was 4.48 yarrds lost per sack

- Daniels' average was 4.36 yards lost per sack

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

[Koolblue13]

A pack of rabbits is called a "Fluffle" in Canada and I think that's just adorable.

[FrFan]

Rabbid ears ?

 

 

[CommanderInTheRye]

3 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

 

 

If you transplanted JJ McCarthy's face, personality, confidence, and charisma, onto any of the top three qbs he'd be my choice as the #1 pick.

 

It's just when it comes to actually playing the game that I have my doubts about him.

[Skinsinparadise]

love the mystery of this.  No one knows outside of me and @KDawg,  not even Keim

 

 

 

 

Edited March 19 by Skinsinparadise

[CommanderInTheRye]

2 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

love the mystery of this.  No one knows outside of me and @KDawg,  not eve Keim

 

 

 

 

 

 

What a welcome difference between the Harris/Peters/Quinn regime and Ron "I have buddies on every sports show and I never met a camera I wouldn't talk to." Rivera.

[Skinsinparadise]

[Warhead36]

24 minutes ago, skinny21 said:

Not that it really matters, but I presume that was in reference to Howell last year, not in college?

 

 

Yes. I don't know about college but Howell's pressure to sack ratio in college was abysmal then too, so its reasonable to assume he probably took huge chunk sacks for losses then as well. One of the reasons he fell to round 5.

[Panninho]

 

 

 

[Llevron]

Interesting clip here with Burrow saying that sacks are an overblown stat to a degree. His argument being that if they are on third down, who cares, cause unless he gets the first its a dead play anyway. Obviously that depends on field goal range and if the plan is to go for 2 or not. 

 

Then to add to your current discussion (where I am just watching) about the prospects the numbers on sack percentage on what down came up. And I find it interesting if not a bit useless without actually knowing the mindset of the player (which obviously you will never know). 

 

Just curious if you guys find this interesting or not. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[DogofWar1]

Yeah I buy into the "3rd down sack rate kinda whatever" narrative, it's not GOOD but if the 3rd down conversion rate is good then who cares.  Make stuff happen.

[Warhead36]

2 minutes ago, DogofWar1 said:

Yeah I buy into the "3rd down sack rate kinda whatever" narrative, it's not GOOD but if the 3rd down conversion rate is good then who cares.  Make stuff happen.

Yeah I get the thought process as well. Also, if you're consistently in 3rd and long, you're likely to take more 3rd down sacks anyway, as you're forced to hold out to try to make the big play.

 

Its one of those things where you have to really dig deep into the stats and the context while also watching the film to determine why the QB is taking those sacks.

[Skinsinparadise]