The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[TradeTheBeal!]

2024 TTB real talk.

 

Sam is not currently “broken”, nor has he ever been.  He’s exactly the same hodgepodge of arm talent, curious pocket management and red flags now in January that he was when he stunk out the joint in September/October against the Bills and the Bears and the Giants.  The issue is that several forum members (and teammates/media members) got irrationally exuberant and way over their skis back in October and crowned his ass when it was extremely obvious he was still very much a work in progress.

 

So now we have to deal with this fraudulent “broken” narrative, because folks don’t have the minerals to admit they clowned themselves back in Autumn.

 

Ill hang up and listen…

 

 

[DWinzit]

23 minutes ago, mac8887 said:

Question for the howlers out there. Next year would you rather have eb+howell vs a new coach+new qb. I still think there is a very slim chance eb stays, and if he is here, hard to see him choosing a rookie over Sam at that point.

I have been a pro Sam guy since he was drafted. I would be much happier at this point with new coach and new QB. 

 

I would question if we have that, what occurs with Howell? Could he be a good 2nd stringer for new top 5 draft pick? 

 

Normally in that scenario you would want a vet QB that can start the year and fade as the kid becomes ready. Not sure if it is the best for Howell but hey, I could see it.

[Est.1974]

I think you keep Howell around in 2024 whatever happens in the draft. Unless some unexpected, and reasonable, trade offer came in. That seems highly unlikely to me.

[Llevron]

15 minutes ago, TradeTheBeal! said:

2024 TTB real talk.

 

Sam is not currently “broken”, nor has he ever been.  He’s exactly the same hodgepodge of arm talent, curious pocket management and red flags now in January that he was when he stunk out the joint in September/October against the Bills and the Bears and the Giants.  The issue is that several forum members (and teammates/media members) got irrationally exuberant and way over their skis back in October and crowned his ass when it was extremely obvious he was still very much a work in progress.

 

So now we have to deal with this fraudulent “broken” narrative, because folks don’t have the minerals to admit they clowned themselves back in Autumn.

 

Ill hang up and listen…

 

 

He looks exactly how he was projected before he was drafted and it’s hard for me to ignore that. 

[Renegade7]

4 minutes ago, Llevron said:

He looks exactly how he was projected before he was drafted and it’s hard for me to ignore that. 

 

You mean a 5th round pick, not a 1st round grade the previous year if he came out?

 

I agree that we draft and start a rookie QB, our veteran backup shouldn't be 24.

[mac8887]

1 minute ago, TradeTheBeal! said:

2024 TTB real talk.

 

Sam is not currently “broken”, nor has he ever been.  He’s exactly the same hodgepodge of arm talent, curious pocket management and red flags now in January that he was when he stunk out the joint in September/October against the Bills and the Bears and the Giants.  The issue is that several forum members (and teammates/media members) got irrationally exuberant and way over their skis back in October and crowned his ass when it was extremely obvious he was still very much a work in progress.

 

So now we have to deal with this fraudulent “broken” narrative, because folks don’t have the minerals to admit they clowned themselves back in Autumn.

 

Ill hang up and listen…

 

 

I think what got people excited was the eagles games, losses by the way. I was really high on him after the first eagles game as well. In hindsight the eagles d is trash and now we all know it now. 

 

To many including myself were all to willing to look past the bills game, and some even see the Bears and pats game as good performances. 

 

I think he is who he is and that all of the draft gurus were right with him. 

 

To me it's very telling that Ron was the one to pick him in the 5th, who knows where he would've ended up if we hadn't of taken him.

 

Ron is the same talent evauluater that outsmarted everyone taking forbes, and Jamin Davis davis in the first round, way overdrafting both. He was the one who figured out that chase was better than herbert and tua.

 

 

 

[mac8887]

39 minutes ago, DWinzit said:

I have been a pro Sam guy since he was drafted. I would be much happier at this point with new coach and new QB. 

 

I would question if we have that, what occurs with Howell? Could he be a good 2nd stringer for new top 5 draft pick? 

 

Normally in that scenario you would want a vet QB that can start the year and fade as the kid becomes ready. Not sure if it is the best for Howell but hey, I could see it.

Not sure you would want Howell as your vet qb backup. Maybe keep him as a qb3 if we go with a rookie. He could potentially back up a vet if we were to bring in russ, Kirk. Fields, or Murry to start though

 

At that point you could take a flyer on a guy in the late rounds for qb3, or even pick a Spencer rattler in the 3rd  and let he and Sam battle it out for qb2.

Edited January 1 by mac8887

[DWinzit]

3 minutes ago, mac8887 said:

Not sure you would want Howell as your vet qb backup. Maybe keep him as a qb3 if we go with a rookie. He could potentially back up a vet if we were to bring in russ, Kirk. Fields, or Murry to start though

 

At that point you could take a flyer on a guy in the late rounds for qb3, or even pick a Spencer rattler in the 3rd  and let he and Sam battle it out for qb2.

Man is it hard to see Howell as a QB3 right now. There are so many possibilities, including the vet field. Just feels like we need to let the GM hiring play out before we can begin with real speculating seriously. 

 

[Going Commando]

14 minutes ago, mac8887 said:

To many including myself were all to willing to look past the bills game, and some even see the Bears and pats game as good performances. 

 

Individual games are not referendums on the talent or upside of QB prospects.  ALL of them have bad games.  Stone cold stud franchise QBs who have mastered the game and are on their way to the Hall have terrible games where they turn it over, can't read the defense, and can't hit the broad side of a barn.  All of them have nadirs where showing up to work means battling through a bunch of **** and losing games.

 

All QB prospects have peaks and valleys as they develop.  Every single one has moments where their fans and their teams aren't sure about them and want to jump off the ride.  The key is for the team in charge of their development to be more stable and less foolish than their fans, which is shockingly infrequent.

 

Sam vastly outperformed his draft stock this season, and showed he can be a pretty solid starting QB.  He is worth developing.  Just not the right situation for him here, but that doesn't mean he sucked or lacked the potential to be worth developing.

[mac8887]

4 minutes ago, DWinzit said:

 Just feels like we need to let the GM hiring play out before we can begin with real speculating seriously. 

 

Yeah, you know these new fo guys are going to want to get the guys they are familiar with, coaches and players. It'll be an exciting off season

[mhd24]

2 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

 

Individual games are not referendums on the talent or upside of QB prospects.  ALL of them have bad games.  Stone cold stud franchise QBs who have mastered the game and are on their way to the Hall have terrible games where they turn it over, can't read the defense, and can't hit the broad side of a barn.  All of them have nadirs where showing up to work means battling through a bunch of **** and losing games.

 

All QB prospects have peaks and valleys as they develop.  Every single one has moments where their fans and their teams aren't sure about them and want to jump off the ride.  The key is for the team in charge of their development to be more stable and less foolish than their fans, which is shockingly infrequent.

 

Sam vastly outperformed his draft stock this season, and showed he can be a pretty solid starting QB.  He is worth developing.  Just not the right situation for him here, but that doesn't mean he sucked or lacked the potential to be worth developing.

Yeah, I like Sam, but we are going to take a QB, so the best bet is to trade him.  Ideally, we'd get a 3rd, but I'm hoping for a 4th.  We might actually decide to take a future pick (i.e. 3rd rounder in 2025) with the new forward-thinking FO.

 

I could see someone like KC trading for Sam and letting him sit behind Maholmes as a backup.

[Est.1974]

40 minutes ago, Renegade7 said:

 

You mean a 5th round pick, not a 1st round grade the previous year if he came out?

 

I agree that we draft and start a rookie QB, our veteran backup shouldn't be 24.

Our vet back up will likely cost 10mil for a season then. Waste of both cash and cap.

[mac8887]

16 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

 

Sam vastly outperformed his draft stock this season, and showed he can be a pretty solid starting QB.  He is worth developing.  Just not the right situation for him here, but that doesn't mean he sucked or lacked the potential to be worth developing.

In what way? Leading the league in picks and pick 6s? Or is it him leading the league in sacks? Maybe it's how he leads the nfc east in losses and if not for Carolina he could lead the entire league in that to? Could the reason he vastly outperformed his draft stock be because he leads the league in batted balls? It seems to me that if the entire goal was to have the team suck and lose so much so that we are guaranteed to draft his replacement then yes, I agree, Sam vastly outperformed his draft stock.

Edited January 1 by mac8887

[Renegade7]

5 minutes ago, Est.1974 said:

Our vet back up will likely cost 10mil for a season then. Waste of both cash and cap.

 

We're looking at potentially $100 million in cap space...

 

How long should we plan to suck?

 

Should we rely entirely on QB coach showing our rookie how to be a professional and accept season tanking if they get hurt?

 

If new OC days they want someone that knows their system, that's not a waste of money to me, that's a couple reasons for how that $10 million pays for itself in other ways. 

 

Even the illusion of not jus giving the job to the rookie is underrated depending on who we draft.

[Llevron]

45 minutes ago, Renegade7 said:

 

You mean a 5th round pick, not a 1st round grade the previous year if he came out?

 

I agree that we draft and start a rookie QB, our veteran backup shouldn't be 24.

 

Yea I mean specifically looking more like the 5th round pick than that 1st the last few weeks and it’s hard not to think about that when I watch him. If we weren’t picking high enough in the draft to replace him with an arguably better prospect I would want to keep him here. 
 

I still kinda want to keep him here, honestly. Cheap back up and I don’t think we will be good enough next season for a good back up to matter for us like it would the Browns this season. 

4 minutes ago, mac8887 said:

In what way? Leading the league in picks and pick 6s? Or is it him leading the league in sacks? Maybe it's how he leads the nfc east in losses and if not for Carolina he could lead the entire league in that to? Could the reason he vastly outperformed his draft stock be because he leads the league in batted balls? It seems to me that if the entire goal was to have the team suck and lose so much so that we are guaranteed to draft his replacement then yes, I agree, Sam vastly outperformed his draft stock.

This is overly negative and kinda silly cause I know you are smart enough to understand that his volume of throws contributes mightily to the volume stats you quoted. It’s almost like you have a weird axe to grind! 

[Skinsinparadise]

2 hours ago, Going Commando said:

Sam is going through a routine young QB valley.  No young QB would look good playing for a lame duck coaching staff on a team that has quit.

 

His problem is about timing.  Being a QB prospect in development during an ownership and regime change gave him zero runway for that development to happen.

 

Beyond that, he's also just not as good a prospect as the ones we will have access if we draft top three.  They're all markedly more creative and talented than Sam, and their contract situations will be so much more team friendlt for a new regime.  So the incentive to upgrade was always going to be powerful if the opportunity presented itself.

 

You can't keep Sam around after drafting a QB this year either.  You only keep one QB prospect on your roster at a time.  The commitment to them has to be absolute, and you do not give your coaches an easy way to waffle on their long term decisions at QB.  Even good coaches will panic and make short sighted moves that ruin prospects when you give them that opening.

 

I am back and forth on the can they keep Howell as a backup idea.  I like it as insurance.  And i still think Howell has a chance in this league.  I know from other posts, you aren't a fan of having a safety net when you draft a QB because you feel its used as a crutch.  I get the point.  But I do also buy what Shanny, Gibbs, Arians among other have said which is you can tell fast if the QB you draft has it or doesn't have it once they are in the building. 

 

So it sort of gives you security in case the coaching staff is sour on what they see early on.  And if it works out then you got a Rivers-Brees -- McNabb-Kolb situation where you can deal one of them.   Howell also seems like a good soldier and not insecure like a Wentz around Hurts or an RG3 around Kirk, etc.  But I don't feel that strongly about that point.

 

Having said that especially if they draft Maye (i am starting to fall much harder for Maye the more I watch) it would be a bit weird with having Howell around considering they are super close best friends.

Edited January 1 by Skinsinparadise

[Renegade7]

7 minutes ago, Llevron said:

 

Yea I mean specifically looking more like the 5th round pick than that 1st the last few weeks and it’s hard not to think about that when I watch him. If we weren’t picking high enough in the draft to replace him with an arguably better prospect I would want to keep him here.

 

I kinda wanna keep him here, but he has more value then an emergency 3rd string project QB...it'd be pragmatic to flip him to someone who needs him more then we do during a full rebuild on our end.

Edited January 1 by Renegade7

[Sacks 'n' Stuff]

20 minutes ago, Renegade7 said:

How long should we plan to suck?

The players on the first good Commanders team haven’t been born yet.

[88Comrade2000]

2 hours ago, mac8887 said:

Question for the howlers out there. Next year would you rather have eb+howell vs a new coach+new qb. I still think there is a very slim chance eb stays, and if he is here, hard to see him choosing a rookie over Sam at that point.

The entire coaching staff will be released from their contracts next Monday.

[88Comrade2000]

Sam himself should asked to be traded or released. If he wants a shot at an nfl career, it won’t be here.

 

If the going rate for starting qbs is 40-60 million; then $10 million for a backup qb isn’t bad.

 

You want a veteran backup with a few years on him; to backup your rookie.  Sam doesn’t qualify, having only one year.

 

Sam’s best route is to be a backup for a veteran qb, so he can learn. Then he can go somewhere where he can get his shot.

Edited January 1 by 88Comrade2000

[mac8887]

1 hour ago, Llevron said:

This is overly negative and kinda silly cause I know you are smart enough to understand that his volume of throws contributes mightily to the volume stats you quoted. It’s almost like you have a weird axe to grind! 

All I'm saying is devitto had just as many really good games as Sam this year, nobody in New York is clamoring for him to be the guy, nor were they upset when he was benched. He most definitely outplayed his draft stock and nobody in New York is thinking, let's forgo this stacked qb draft class because devitto showed promise a couple of games.

 

Do you think the Bengals will be happy settling for browning to be there back up next year because he had a few good games?

 

I just don't see how people can look at sams play and feel comfortable penciling him in even as a backup especially not a starter.

 

You want your back up qb to be a serviceable game manager, someone that might not throw a lot of tds or for many yards, not someone who will throw a bunch of picks not even giving your team a chance to win.

 

Why is it heresy to want and expect good qb play from our qb.

Edited January 1 by mac8887

[kingdaddy]

2 hours ago, TradeTheBeal! said:

2024 TTB real talk.

 

Sam is not currently “broken”, nor has he ever been.  He’s exactly the same hodgepodge of arm talent, curious pocket management and red flags now in January that he was when he stunk out the joint in September/October against the Bills and the Bears and the Giants.  The issue is that several forum members (and teammates/media members) got irrationally exuberant and way over their skis back in October and crowned his ass when it was extremely obvious he was still very much a work in progress.

 

So now we have to deal with this fraudulent “broken” narrative, because folks don’t have the minerals to admit they clowned themselves back in Autumn.

 

Ill hang up and listen…

 

 

I'll respond. I don't think it's fair to say Sam is or isn't something definitive after just one season as the starter on a team with a lame duck staff with lots of moving parts and little stability. I think I've noticed a pattern with Sam and it very much has to do with the play calling. I'll explain; When EB goes heavy pass calling Sam's performance declines because he holds the ball a lot and is under duress much of the time. Keep in mind that he's trying to learn an offense and figure out what defenses are doing all under baptism by fire. Many young QB's never figure this all out and often times get caught up in a spin cycle of changing coaches/offenses which further complicates things. Yesterday, in the 1st half, EB used a very good mix of running plays and passes which created a nice balance for Sam and he seemed to really do well. In other words, I think EB could've done a much better job of going more run heavy to break Sam in rather than having Sam lead the league in passing attempts. Sam's worst throws yesterday came when SF knew we had to pass and they could focus on defending the pass. This is also a pattern we saw much of the season. 

I'm learning that it takes the majority of QB's in the NFL several years to really figure things out unless they're on a very well coached team that commits to the run and doesn't overload them with having to carry too much of the load. I believe the coaching staff in Washington put way too much on Sam and he struggled to be consistent and avoid making mistakes (which many young QB's do). The jury is still out on Sam but I think, if put in the right situation, he could have a bright future in the league. For the season I'd probably give Sam a C grade with lots of room for improvement but also lots of potential based on some of the plays he did make. 

[method man]

41 minutes ago, 88Comrade2000 said:

Sam himself should asked to be traded or released. If he wants a shot at an nfl career, it won’t be here.

 

If the going rate for starting qbs is 40-60 million; then $10 for a backup qb isn’t bad.

 

You want a veteran backup with a few years on him; to backup your rookie.  Sam doesn’t qualify, having only one year.

 

Sam’s best route is to be a backup for a veteran qb, so he can learn. Then he can go somewhere where he can get his shot.

Where is this “$10M is the going rate for a backup QB” narrative coming from?

 

Brissett is probably the highest paid backup QB and he made $8M this year. The Heinickes, Minshews etc are in that $4M-$6M range. Veteran backups are not going to be particularly expensive next offseason because that market will be flooded with the likes of Tannehill, D. Jones and others joining them

[seamonster]

I was impressed with the throws against Denver. He's got an arm and can hit targets from a clean pocket and he's not afraid to fit the ball into tight windows. And he can move around some.  But damn Howell plays with some of the lowest situational awareness that I've ever seen from an NFL QB...Lowers the shoulder to lay  hits on linebackers while he's running out of bounds. Throws the ball into the stands on free-plays. And he can't handle obvious pressure situations (see Giants). Holds onto ball and walks into sacks. 

 

Washington could possibly trade him to a team with an offensive minded head coach that's intrigued with the raw talent and get a late draft pick. With the right GM late round draft picks can be key contributors (see Veach from the Chiefs).   

 

Edited January 1 by seamonster

[KDawg]

40 minutes ago, mac8887 said:

All I'm saying is devitto had just as many really good games as Sam this year, nobody in New York is clamoring for him to be the guy, nor were they upset when he was benched. He most definitely outplayed his draft stock and nobody in New York is thinking, let's forgo this stacked qb draft class because devitto showed promise a couple of games.

 

Do you think the Bengals will be happy settling for browning to be there back up next year because he had a few good games?

 

I just don't see how people can look at sams play and feel comfortable penciling him in even as a backup especially not a starter.

 

You want your back up qb to be a serviceable game manager, someone that might not throw a lot of tds or for many yards, not someone who will throw a bunch of picks not even giving your team a chance to win.

 

Why is it heresy to want and expect good qb play from our qb.

This isn’t “all you’re saying” though. 
 

You are allowing for zero context as it pertains to Howell’s performance and ignoring all of his good to take shots at him.

 

He has an absurd number of attempts for what was an essential rookie (not anymore) at the beginning of the season. 
 

He had no running game due to our coordinator’s fascination with throwing damn near 60 times a game (to the tune of a 66:33 pass:run ratio) and he had an absolutely horrific offensive line in front of him.

 

To counter @TradeTheBeal!’s point just a touch, I don’t agree that he has been the same QB all year. He hasn’t been. 
 

He has shown similar negatives even in the midst of his decent to good games. Things like holding the ball too long, forcing passes, etc., are all issues that were always there. 
 

But he was able to temper them for a good portion of the season.

 

Then December happened.

 

College seasons are 12-13 games. That’s about the timeframe where Howell fell off a cliff. The hits added up, he got even more nervous than he was prior and he simply multiplied his bad by about 4. 
 

To me, that absolutely adds up to being broken. If you don’t want to think that way, that’s okay, too. But then you’re kind of arguing that Bienemy and Rivera’s coaching didn’t have any kind of effect and Howell had a situation he could have been successful. 
 

He didn’t. 
 

The key to nurturing a young QB is the running game and a (at least) decent offensive line. 
 

We refused to run and our line stunk.

 

Now add the defense completely failing to the mix and you have a situation where your young QB is shouldering a lot of pressure. 
 

It’s not conducive to growth. And I think any young QB would have been in trouble here this year. Stroud looks better here, I think, but he’s have his struggles, too.