The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[Conn]

1 hour ago, zCommander said:

Again, to me throwing more doesn't equate to more completions because your margin of error also increases.
 

 

Just take a minute to think about it. The worst starter in the league throwing 400 passes is going to complete more passes than a great QB throwing 100 passes. That’s extreme but gets the point across. Once you get past some sort of minimum attempts threshold to account for small sample size and factor that out, you really have to be looking at rate stats (and much more) rather than raw yardage. 

[PeterMP]

2 hours ago, zCommander said:

 

This is the quote I am looking at: "completions--yes he is top 10.   But some of that is a product of the fact that we throw the ball a lot."

 

How is he top 10 if it is not a measure of rate, % or whatever. Again, to me throwing more doesn't equate to more completions because your margin of error also increases. So my whole point, which I think is lost, is that if Sam is throwing more and is in top 10 (compared to other QBs who have thrown less passes) that means he is really good and not because he is throwing more passes, which btw makes it even more impressive, especially behind the OL that we have.

 

 

 

Okay, then you're just generally wrong.  The difference in most starting NFL QBs in terms of completion percentage is not enough in most cases to over come what can be large differences in the number of passes thrown.  If you can't have a high number of attempts and complete a high number of passes, that isn't an indication that you're good.  That's an indication you're bad and probably not a starting NFL QB.

 

This season right now, Cousins is #1 in attempts and #1in completions.

Last year, Brady #1 in attempts and #1 in completions.

Year before that, the same

Going back to 2020, Matt Ryan #1 in attempts and #1 in completions.

 

Cousins is okay to good.  Brady wasn't very good last year.  The year before, Tampa won the SB but Brady wasn't great.  And Ryan was even pretty bad in 2020.  And I could go back further and you'd see the same general trend.  People that lead the league in completions are at or near the top of in attempts.  And they don't actually have to be very good to do it.

 

If you want to argue he's doing well given the OL, that's different.  But that's a more nebulous argument and more difficult to make.  And you can try to make essentially that same argument based on the more rating/advanced states.  e.g. Hey, he's only middle of the pack in completion % but most of the people ahead of him are playing behind much better OL (note, I'm not saying that's true, but that would be the argument).

 

Edited November 2, 2023 by PeterMP

[Voice_of_Reason]

1 hour ago, Conn said:

 

Just take a minute to think about it. The worst starter in the league throwing 400 passes is going to complete more passes than a great QB throwing 100 passes. That’s extreme but gets the point across. Once you get past some sort of minimum attempts threshold to account for small sample size and factor that out, you really have to be looking at rate stats (and much more) rather than raw yardage. 

Math is hard:

 

 

 

[zCommander]

4 minutes ago, Conn said:

 

Just take a minute to think about it. The worst starter in the league throwing 400 passes is going to complete more passes than a great QB throwing 100 passes. That’s extreme but gets the point across. Once you get past some sort of minimum attempts threshold to account for small sample size and factor that out, you really have to be looking at rate stats (and much more) rather than raw yardage. 

 

My thought process is more about quantity vs. quality. I don't see a direct correlation between the more you throw the more completion you are going to get. In your example if QB1 throws 400 times but doesn't even complete one pass then more doesn't mean more completions though. But the fact that Sam had 24 completion out of 26 is damn good. To throw that many times and only miss his target 2 times mean quantity and quality are both displayed here:

 

Commanders QB Sam Howell's first-half stats vs. the Eagles: 
- 92.3% completion (24/26)
- 226 passing yards
- 2 touchdowns
- 0 interceptions
- 0 sacks against
- 128.5 passer rating (ESPN)

 

For Sam to be 3rd in completion is actually pretty good for a 1st time starting QB out of 32 QBs; some of whom are considered "elite" and have been in the NFL longer than Sam.

[PeterMP]

10 minutes ago, zCommander said:

 

My thought process is more about quantity vs. quality. I don't see a direct correlation between the more you throw the more completion you are going to get. In your example if QB1 throws 400 times but doesn't even complete one pass then more doesn't mean more completions though. But the fact that Sam had 24 completion out of 26 is damn good. To throw that many times and only miss his target 2 times mean quantity and quality are both displayed here:

 

Commanders QB Sam Howell's first-half stats vs. the Eagles: 
- 92.3% completion (24/26)
- 226 passing yards
- 2 touchdowns
- 0 interceptions
- 0 sacks against
- 128.5 passer rating (ESPN)

 

For Sam to be 3rd in completion is actually pretty good for a 1st time starting QB out of 32 QBs; some of whom are considered "elite" and have been in the NFL longer than Sam.

 

Ugh, please tell me you are not trying to make an argument about whether somebody is good or not based on one half.

[Conn]

1 hour ago, zCommander said:

 

My thought process is more about quantity vs. quality. I don't see a direct correlation between the more you throw the more completion you are going to get. In your example if QB1 throws 400 times but doesn't even complete one pass then more doesn't mean more completions though. But the fact that Sam had 24 completion out of 26 is damn good. To throw that many times and only miss his target 2 times mean quantity and quality are both displayed here:

 

Commanders QB Sam Howell's first-half stats vs. the Eagles: 
- 92.3% completion (24/26)
- 226 passing yards
- 2 touchdowns
- 0 interceptions
- 0 sacks against
- 128.5 passer rating (ESPN)

 

For Sam to be 3rd in completion is actually pretty good for a 1st time starting QB out of 32 QBs; some of whom are considered "elite" and have been in the NFL longer than Sam.

Yes you’re right—in my example if someone strapped a kangaroo into some football pads and he completed 0 total passes out of 400 attempts, then the way you’re thinking about it would make sense. Good math, carry on. 

[mistertim]

I always take numbers like passing yards with a grain of salt, if not mostly ignore them. Throwing for a bunch of yards doesn't make a good QB. Even completion % can be misleading sometimes because it doesn't take into account many factors that do make a difference.

 

That said, I do take Sam's yards and passing attempts into account, although I do it more of a qualitative way, not quantitative. I don't necessarily care so much about the specific number, but the fact that a guy who's mostly a rookie has basically had the offense put on his shoulders and had to carry it with his arm has still played well overall (with ups and downs) is very encouraging.

[Thinking Skins]

 

 

[zCommander]

Blowing up the chart above. Sam needs to work on his intermitade stuff looks like. 

 

[Rufus T Firefly]

4 hours ago, zCommander said:

 

My thought process is more about quantity vs. quality. I don't see a direct correlation between the more you throw the more completion you are going to get.

It's hard to believe you could be making that case seriously. Or that you deserve to be taken seriously if you are.

[Skinsinparadise]

15 hours ago, HigSkin said:

 

Not sure how plugged in Sheehan is so FWIW.

 

Maybe Sheehan yesterday with Lovera because I listened to so many pods I might be mixing them up.  Anyway, was mentioned that "they" referring to above the coaches really like Sam.  He also name dropped ex Steelers GM Kevin Colbert as having someone with NFL experience in Harris's ear.  Don't know validity but that would be interesting.

 

 

 

I was half listening to it.  The Colbert stuff was just a guess because Harris was a minority partner with the Steelers.

 

But as for the coaches liking Sam, heck Ron flat out said it yesterday.  And Russini referenced it.

[Skinsinparadise]

Adjusted completion percentage -- throws on target is PFF's favorite categeory for accuracy.  I hate who PFF includes everyone includiing dudes with one passes.  But you can see Howell is ranked highly.

 

Howell's accuracy is clearly good, I don't need stats to tell me that story.  The hurdle he needs to overcome is processing quickly -- get rid of the ball.  But in short, I still think Howell is projecting well.   For a dude with basically half a season of experience, ups and downs are expected. 

 

 

[Thinking Skins]

 

 

[zCommander]

3 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Adjusted completion percentage -- throws on target is PFF's favorite categeory for accuracy.  I hate who PFF includes everyone includiing dudes with one passes.  But you can see Howell is ranked highly.

 

Howell's accuracy is clearly good, I don't need stats to tell me that story.  The hurdle he needs to overcome is processing quickly -- get rid of the ball.  But in short, I still think Howell is projecting well.   For a dude with basically half a season of experience, ups and downs are expected. 

 

 

 

If you take out the QBs who have played 3 games or less then Howell is actually ranked #9. Correct?

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

4 minutes ago, zCommander said:

 

If you take out the QBs who have played 3 games or less then Howell is actually ranked #9. Correct?

 yes

[JamesMadisonSkins]

If we continue to lose and have a chance at Alt or or Fashanu, I would absolutely love an OL of:

LT - Alt

LG - Onwenu

C - Stromberg

RG - Cosmi 

RT - Jonah Williams

 

Doubt we go big in FA on two OL but with our cap room and draft capital and a young QB who needs protection, you never know. Cut Leno and free up gobs of $$

OT: Alt, Williams, Wylie, Daniels

OG: Onwenu, Cosmi, Paul, Gates

OC Stromberg

 

Gates backs up C and G ... Daniels and Wylie both can play T or G ... could throw in another draft pick in the middle rounds to bolster the depth a bit more. I'd prefer to draft 2 OL at a minimum, so hopefully we can do that.

 

It also would not shock me if a new FO comes in and just sheds the FAs that were signed by this team that could be seen as expendable. Gates, Wylie, etc ... no need to keep them around unless you actually think they're good fits. 

Edited November 2, 2023 by JamesMadisonSkins

[Fan since a Fetus]

I feel like I am reading about Schrödinger’s completions. If you don’t see more completions\incompletions with more pass attempts, are they even there?

[PeterMP]

Here's where I am on Howell.  He looks a lot like Hurts to me year 1.  If you look at their rating numbers (not absolutes/totals), they're statistically very similar even for things like their % of on target throws.  The difference is Hurts was more mobile.  A good (well above average) improvement for Howell would be to improve to where Hurts is now.  

 

Hurts was also cheap (like Howell is now).  Hurts' new contract keeps him cheap this year and even reasonable next year, but after that his cap hit gets pretty high (over $20 million).  He'll also slow down and become more injury prone.  Because of how cheap he his now and his legs, the Eagles have a shot at a Super Bowl.  And even the same next year, but the chances go down.  By 2025 (unless something else unexpected happens), their chances will be very small.

 

Howell either needs to make a huge jump compared to Hurts in his passing stats/ability, or you have to keep him on a contract that keeps his cap hit low (probably about $10 million a year, depending on how much the cap goes up) to have a window that stays open for very long.

 

His biggest weakness appears to be seeing the field and quickly making reads.  Some of that is his height.  Some of it his experience and a learning curve.  But some of it might also be innate mental/information processing ability.  We'll see how much he can improve.

 

I don't think he has upper-echelon accuracy (#9 seems about right what I'm talking about is top 3 or 4), and I doubt he ever will.  If he did/does, it would be a different story.

Edited November 2, 2023 by PeterMP

[UK Skins]

1 hour ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

It also would not shock me if a new FO comes in and just sheds the FAs that were signed by this team that could be seen as expendable. Gates, Wylie, etc ... no need to keep them around unless you actually think they're good fits. 

This is what I hope happens. Those two have been hot garbage. There were enough people on this forum querying the signings real time and they've been proved correct. This FO knows nothing.

[tmandoug1]

4 hours ago, PeterMP said:

Here's where I am on Howell.  He looks a lot like Hurts to me year 1.  If you look at their rating numbers (not absolutes/totals), they're statistically very similar even for things like their % of on target throws.  The difference is Hurts was more mobile.  A good (well above average) improvement for Howell would be to improve to where Hurts is now.  

 

Hurts was also cheap (like Howell is now).  Hurts' new contract keeps him cheap this year and even reasonable next year, but after that his cap hit gets pretty high (over $20 million).  He'll also slow down and become more injury prone.  Because of how cheap he his now and his legs, the Eagles have a shot at a Super Bowl.  And even the same next year, but the chances go down.  By 2025 (unless something else unexpected happens), their chances will be very small.

 

Howell either needs to make a huge jump compared to Hurts in his passing stats/ability, or you have to keep him on a contract that keeps his cap hit low (probably about $10 million a year, depending on how much the cap goes up) to have a window that stays open for very long.

 

His biggest weakness appears to be seeing the field and quickly making reads.  Some of that is his height.  Some of it his experience and a learning curve.  But some of it might also be innate mental/information processing ability.  We'll see how much he can improve.

 

I don't think he has upper-echelon accuracy (#9 seems about right what I'm talking about is top 3 or 4), and I doubt he ever will.  If he did/does, it would be a different story.

My only argument would be that Hurts has been playing behind the best oline in the league for two years now. Howell has been running for his life, some of it is his fault....but he is learning. I think he will be elite due his progress behind the line and a new OC. I'm hoping next year is his breakout year.....fun to watch though.

 

[Koolblue13]

It'll be nice to give Howell an OL and an OC that doesn't feed him to the wolves every week.

 

Hurts had a line and they gave hi the weapons. Siriani stopped calling plays when it wasn't helping Hurts and he let Shcein take over.

 

It'll be nice to see What Howell can do withthat kind of support.

[Warhead36]

Yeah I'd like to see what Howell can do with a better OL. Whether the sacks are on him or not, you can't really argue that the OL is still a below average(at best) unit with little legitimate talent besides maybe Cosmi. 

 

Hurts on the other hand has a couple future HOF-ers on his line in Johnson and Kelce and the rest are rock solid at the very least.

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

[Koolblue13]

[NoCalMike]

/fI don't know if Hurts is more mobile than Sam so much as Hurts plays behind an O-line where even if a defense has good coverage, that O-line more times than not is holding their blocks and giving Hurts clean rushing lanes to escape.  When Howell drops back, often times if he isn't throwing the ball in 2.5 seconds, the O-line has been pushed back in multiple directions making it a lot more difficult to escape.

 

To me a good sign with Howell was the first Eagles game vs 2nd Eagles game.  Statistically he was good in both, but last Sunday for the most part Howell looked next level decisive, quick, and determined on a lot of those drop backs.  He was hitting his the height of his drop back and letting the ball go, and usually highly accurate to players who weren't breaking their stride.  I think sometimes rookies/first year starters sometimes tend to play a bit more robotically because they are trying to process so much brand new stuff in their head on every pass play that they aren't comfortable yet just going out there and playing football.  Howell looked like he was playing football last Sunday.