The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[Skinsinparadise]

9 hours ago, BRAVEONTHEWARPATH93 said:

Looks like he had 3/5s of that Oline get drafted to the NFL but ok. Agree to disagree. 

He was still sacked 5 times and at least 3 were him walking directly into the sacks??? What is this this proving?

 

ATL couldn’t buy a sack prior to Sunday 

 

You are making my point.  dudes that habitually give up sacks, gave up more sacks.  How about that?  While a dude that some of us me included thought after watching camp is better at pass protection than Wylie and said so BEFORE the season, not only did not give up a sack but didn't even give up a pressure.

 

I know you don't think much of Sam, that's clear in your posts.   Every now and then you back off but otherwise its hard to miss.   If has some bad moments we hear from you quickly in the game thread -- its Sam, Sam, Sam, Sam, Sam is the problem. 

 

And I know from your discussion with me when I asked you about the O line, that though while you aren't a Ron guy, you think we are giving him a hard time for no reason on the O line -- you think the O line is good enough and supported the idea of not putting more resources than they did for the O line.  At least that's how you felt a couple of weeks ago when me and you debated the point. 

 

And you have the right to think that of course.

 

But for me, I've mostly liked what I've seen from Howell.  I think we'd be in mucn deeper trouble if we had last years Qbs.  For a dude with 7 starts I am intrigued.  I think Ron did a piss poor job upgrading the O line.  and yeah is Howell partly responsible for these sacks, of course.  But is the crap O line immaterial to this IMO and others no way.  Keim who rarely gives his opinion on things has actually beaten this point like a drum for weeks now, they knew he holds on to the ball more than most.  So for that reason you do MORE to give the team an actually good offensive line.  And this team didn't do that.

 

I know at least from one of your posts to me, you believe Ron made mistakes and among them is this season running it with Howell this season, but you felt the O line wasn't one of his mistakes.  Plenty of people who cover the team disagree with you.  Again to each their own.  But those who disagree with you aren't actually on any island to say the least.  You got the outlier take on the subject at least for now.  There are some who agree with you but most don't.  But will see.

 

 

Edited October 18, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Skinsinparadise]

5 hours ago, FootballZombie said:

 

All it means is Lucas held his blocks longer than everyone else on the O-line sans Leno... and its really only impressive to do that longer than Cosmi considering how many pressures Wylie and Charles give up.

 

 

 

Thanks for reminding me about Cosmi.   He's a good player but no pro bowler.  He's been good, too.  He's blocking for the same QB.

 

Charles if I recall had a pass blocking grade in high 20s from PFF or something like that last year.   And shocker he's giving up pressures and sacks this year.  Gates has been a pedestrian to less player in his career -- whether its his rep, PFF, AV scores, you name it, and shockingly he's giving up pressuess and sacks.  Wylie who is I recall was top 3 in giving up sacks and pressures last year -- shockingly is at it again.

 

We can blame the idea that Charles and Gates and Wylie aren't much as being blockers on Howell.  And maybe Cosmi playing well for Howell is a total fluke. But to be consistent on that point, we also need to blame Howell on their track record before they played with him when they weren't hot either.  Maybe they felt the specter of Howell before they even met him, the poor saps?

 

And shame on Keim for being a hater about the job they did this offseason on the O line for no reason because we all know how much of a flame thrower Keim is. . And the dude won't let up on the point how obnoxious.

 

 

 

Edited October 18, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Koolblue13]

It's not just the OL playing bad that leads to Sam being sacked. It's also bad play designs and play calling.

 

ATL game, first half saw screens, quick slants and digs. Plays designed to get the ball out quickly to receivers and let them make plays.

 

Enough run plays thrown in to keep the defense honest as well.

 

Second half, we stopped running BRob, ran predictable run plays with a 6th round rookie into the OL on first and second downs, then on 3rd and 5 ran a pass play with the closest receiver over 10 yards down field and everyone else was deeper.

 

Followed that with the slow developing pass plays which didn't work.

[FootballZombie]

16 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

It's not just the OL playing bad that leads to Sam being sacked. It's also bad play designs and play calling.

 

And that's why I personally put the majority of the sack onus at EBs feet.

 

We have a bad blocking Oline. Ron screwed the pooch there, but whats done is done. That's not changing tomorrow.

Sam takes sacks. Hes not dropping that habit tomorrow.

EB seems to enjoy offensive gameplans that help magnify the first two issues. That can and has to change

 

 

Hot routes. Available dump offs. Quick hitters. Commitment to the run game. He has tools at his disposal to help minimize the problem rather than maximize it.

 

When Sam has nowhere to throw the ball and has to hold it and get crushed, sure Sam made the play, but its also on EB.

When a bad Oline has to hold for 3 secs b/c the play demands it and they are unable to, that is also shared responsibility by EB.

 

 

We only get to 100 sacks if EB allows it.

 

[Koolblue13]

5 minutes ago, FootballZombie said:

 

And that's why I personally put the majority of the sack onus at EBs feet.

 

We have a bad blocking Oline. Ron screwed the pooch there, but whats done is done. That's not changing tomorrow.

Sam takes sacks. Hes not dropping that habit tomorrow.

EB seems to enjoy offensive gameplans that help magnify the first two issues. That can and has to change

 

 

Hot routes. Available dump offs. Quick hitters. Commitment to the run game. He has tools at his disposal to help minimize the problem rather than maximize it.

 

When Sam has nowhere to throw the ball and has to hold it and get crushed, sure Sam made the play, but its also on EB.

When a bad Oline has to hold for 3 secs b/c the play demands it and they are unable to, that is also shared responsibility by EB.

 

 

We only get to 100 sacks if EB allows it.

 

Agreed. Sometimes like the first half of the Falcons game, he seems to turn the corner and get it, then in the second half he reverts right back to the terrible game plan that we've seen in most games this year.

[RandyHolt]

Is this the defacto offensive catch all thread? If not maybe mods can consider creating one.

 

I have been speaking often not sorry about our offense running through Logan when I theorized it an hour before kickoff week 1. EB coming from Kelce CIty, why wouldn't he implement what he saw worked? A TE is a QBs best friend and Logan healthy +KC, it really wasn't that much of a stretch to predict. Its not been a ton of TE targets sure but folks like Jahan are left holding an empty bag.

 

It was interesting to see EB get somewhat defensive when pressed on Logan being the TE leader in this interview. And then, TMC being clearly #1 in the game plan the next week.

 

 

Edited October 18, 2023 by RandyHolt

[KDawg]

Interesting stats...

 

Total Passing Attempts we're 10th in the NFL. 

 

 

Sacks Taken (sorted bottom up). We're #1.

 

 

Total Rushing attempts (sorted from the bottom). We're 27th in the NFL.

 

 

 

The Vikings (Kirk Cousins) - 240 passes, 113 rushes - 353 total plays

The Panthers (Bryce Young) - 260 passes, 144 rushes - 404 total plays

The Commanders (Sam Howell) - 248 passes, 124 rushes - 372 total plays

The Bengals (Joe Burrow) - 247 passes, 121 rushes - 368 plays

The Giants (Dimes/Rod) 235 passes, 158 rushes - 393 plays

 

The Giants are second to us in sacks, with only 202 "successful" attempts (meaning where they tried to pass and weren't sacked)

 

Obviously, the more you pass, the more you're sacked. 

 

Commanders: 13.7% sack rate

Giants: 14.04% sack rate

Titans: 12.2% sack rate

The Bears: 12.4% sack rate

 

The only teams passing at a higher % of their plays than us are the Bengals (Joe Burrow) and the Vikings are close. As are the Panthers.

 

 

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

15 minutes ago, KDawg said:

Interesting stats...

 

Total Passing Attempts we're 10th in the NFL. 

 

 

Sacks Taken (sorted bottom up). We're #1.

 

 

Total Rushing attempts (sorted from the bottom). We're 27th in the NFL.

 

 

 

The Vikings (Kirk Cousins) - 240 passes, 113 rushes - 353 total plays

The Panthers (Bryce Young) - 260 passes, 144 rushes - 404 total plays

The Commanders (Sam Howell) - 248 passes, 124 rushes - 372 total plays

The Bengals (Joe Burrow) - 247 passes, 121 rushes - 368 plays

The Giants (Dimes/Rod) 235 passes, 158 rushes - 393 plays

 

The Giants are second to us in sacks, with only 202 "successful" attempts (meaning where they tried to pass and weren't sacked)

 

Obviously, the more you pass, the more you're sacked. 

 

Commanders: 13.7% sack rate

Giants: 14.04% sack rate

Titans: 12.2% sack rate

The Bears: 12.4% sack rate

 

The only teams passing at a higher % of their plays than us are the Bengals (Joe Burrow) and the Vikings are close. As are the Panthers.

 

 

 

 

 

Makes sense.  As we are all  (or almost all pointing out)

 

A.  A pass happy offense

B.  With a starter who hasn't even started half a season yet in his career

C. With no running game -- and little play action to help keep defenses honest

D.  With a young QB who plays some hero ball and holds on to the ball

E.  With a poor pass protecting offensive line

 

= lots of sacks.   I know some (not you) disagree and make it purely a Sam Howell thing.  

 

Edited October 18, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Warhead36]

We've also been down double digits in three out of our six games. That will force more passes.

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

@BRAVEONTHEWARPATH93

 

Given your theory that in modern football, sacks are primarily on the QB - why do good teams spend so much money and draft resources on offensive lineman?

 

Seems like a waste when in your mind all the QB has to do is just buy time in the pocket and get rid of the ball.

 

 

 

 

[Stihl89]

We’ve been pretty lucky in this regard. I know we’ve gotten a lot of second opportunities on these 3rd and longs with some timely penalties each game. Some being very ticky tacky 

[KDawg]

9 minutes ago, Stihl89 said:

We’ve been pretty lucky in this regard. I know we’ve gotten a lot of second opportunities on these 3rd and longs with some timely penalties each game. Some being very ticky tacky 

I’d argue we’re lucky Howell plays with ice in his veins. See? We can all tilt things towards our bias.

[zCommander]

10 hours ago, BRAVEONTHEWARPATH93 said:

We’re on the same team, man. I like Sam. This is really an old school v new school philosophical debate more than anything. The new school thinking is that sacks are mainly driven by the QB. Even if the protection isn’t ideal, a QB should theoretically be able to move around in the pocket and avoid sacks. That’s why analysts say that sack rates are sticky. It’s an inherent trait for QBs regardless of circumstance. Sure there are times when they have zero chance on a play but those instances are way rarer than we want to admit. It’s like throwing picks or even pass accuracy, either you get it or you don’t. And no the OLine isn’t top 10 but by almost every quantifiable metric, they are average/slightly below average so when I see that we’re headed towards record breaking sacks levels, I’m gonna point most of my blame pie towards the piece of the offense that always seems to get sacked at an extraordinary rate. 
 

The sack thing is the only issue I have with Sam. He’s blown away every expectation I’ve had for him. Completely blown them away. But I wish we could have better discussions when it comes to sacks because we literally had this same debate on this very site with some of the same posters 10 years ago lol. That’s all it is for me. 

 

A QB should be able to move around the pocket. Yes. What pocket though? When Sam does have a pocket he does makes plays. Do you want Sam to create his own pocket somehow? Also when you say on plays there is zero chance a QB can do anything but isn't that issue we have right now? There are a lot more zero chances than not. That would be because of our OL is not creating a safe space for Sam to throw from. Sam is not finding a pocket to climb into as it crumbles faster than a cookie. 

 

As for 10 years ago, I posted it even back then, the OL actually said (via the media) they like run plays over pass plays because RG3 would immediately start running around behind the LOS and it was hard to protect him for that long. It had nothing to do with RG3 holding on to the ball too long because RG3 had a hard time reading the defenses and would not know what to do (compared to before his knee got destroyed he would just take off running instead). Throwing from a pocket was not RG3 greatest strength. But since you didn't know what the OL actually said back then about RG3 you are assuming the sacks were on him because he was holding on to the ball too long. That was not the case. 

[Conn]

35 minutes ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

@BRAVEONTHEWARPATH93

 

Given your theory that in modern football, sacks are primarily on the QB - why do good teams spend so much money and draft resources on offensive lineman?

 

Seems like a waste when in your mind all the QB has to do is just buy time in the pocket and get rid of the ball.

 

 

 

 

I can’t answer for him (and am not as extreme on the issue), but the theory that I currently subscribe to is a twist on this—it’s not that sacks are “primarily on the QB” as in there’s nothing the OL can do about it—it’s that most sacks are a result of a choice the QB made, and the OL quality and performance is a modifier on that choice. It’s a subtle but distinct difference that imo matters. There will always be guys like Howell that would rather hold and look downfield rather than prematurely end the play and avoid the sack—and some of those QB’s are the greats, when they make these decisions wisely and have the weapons to punish teams and offset the inevitable sacks. Rodgers is an all-time example of this sort of guy, he has always chosen to extend the play and risk the sack looking downfield, over rushing to throw the ball away or risking throwing the INT. His sack numbers have always been higher and his INT numbers always lower. Historically so, at times. At the other end of that spectrum are the guys that turn out to just be oblivious to pressure and not aware of the internal clock they need. And you only know by giving that QB all the tools you can and seeing how they develop.
 

But what you can do by investing in OL is this: you expand the window within which that QB can make the choice. You give him a little more time before he’s operating under pressure and has to decide whether to get rid of it/dump it off or risk the sack while choosing to extend the play. 
 

Specific to Howell, the playcalling and play design are not helping him, they’re reducing his choices in that window of pressure with a lack of checkdown options and short routes much of the time. So I don’t believe our sample size is even a great indicator yet. But a better OL would certainly help. 

Edited October 18, 2023 by Conn

[MartinC]

11 hours ago, BRAVEONTHEWARPATH93 said:

We’re on the same team, man. I like Sam. This is really an old school v new school philosophical debate more than anything. The new school thinking is that sacks are mainly driven by the QB. Even if the protection isn’t ideal, a QB should theoretically be able to move around in the pocket and avoid sacks. That’s why analysts say that sack rates are sticky. It’s an inherent trait for QBs regardless of circumstance. 

 

I think like most problems in a complex system involving humans its rare there is a single cause. Sam certainly seems to have a trait that he wants to get the ball downfield and does not want to give up on plays. Thats coachable IMO - but it will always be a trait. Id rather have that problem that a guy who goes straight to the check down.

 

But scheme plays a part (do we want to read long to short or short to long?), so does play design (are there easy check downs and hot reads).

 

Then you layer on the O'Line. 

 

Its combination of all the above IMO.

[Skinsinparadise]

Granted its Sam's 50th start, and 4th season so by now we should expect better.   Let alone the defense has made it much easier on him, they've killed it.  And considering how heavy we've leaned on the run game and play action -- as Shanny likes to say there is nothing that helps a QB, especially a young QB more that a strong running game -- it all makes sense.  But I worry when they finally take the training wheels off finally and make him chuck the ball like mad.   Also young QBs tend to cresendo down not up -- so its only going to get worse.

 

Edited October 18, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[UK Skins]

This is a fascinating discussion. Can I throw in the WRs not getting separation too? Why that is I'm not sure we know yet but that's got to force Sam to hold onto the ball longer.

[BRAVEONTHEWARPATH93]

3 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

You are making my point.  dudes that habitually give up sacks, gave up more sacks.  How about that?  While a dude that some of us me included thought after watching camp is better at pass protection than Wylie and said so BEFORE the season, not only did not give up a sack but didn't even give up a pressure.

 

I know you don't think much of Sam, that's clear in your posts.   Every now and then you back off but otherwise its hard to miss.   If has some bad moments we hear from you quickly in the game thread -- its Sam, Sam, Sam, Sam, Sam is the problem. 

 

And I know from your discussion with me when I asked you about the O line, that though while you aren't a Ron guy, you think we are giving him a hard time for no reason on the O line -- you think the O line is good enough and supported the idea of not putting more resources than they did for the O line.  At least that's how you felt a couple of weeks ago when me and you debated the point. 

 

And you have the right to think that of course.

 

But for me, I've mostly liked what I've seen from Howell.  I think we'd be in mucn deeper trouble if we had last years Qbs.  For a dude with 7 starts I am intrigued.  I think Ron did a piss poor job upgrading the O line.  and yeah is Howell partly responsible for these sacks, of course.  But is the crap O line immaterial to this IMO and others no way.  Keim who rarely gives his opinion on things has actually beaten this point like a drum for weeks now, they knew he holds on to the ball more than most.  So for that reason you do MORE to give the team an actually good offensive line.  And this team didn't do that.

 

I know at least from one of your posts to me, you believe Ron made mistakes and among them is this season running it with Howell this season, but you felt the O line wasn't one of his mistakes.  Plenty of people who cover the team disagree with you.  Again to each their own.  But those who disagree with you aren't actually on any island to say the least.  You got the outlier take on the subject at least for now.  There are some who agree with you but most don't.  But will see.

 

 

Can you answer my point about his college numbers ? Do you think he’s just been sabotaged with poor Oline play for pretty much his entire career, pro and college and there’s no way he’s the common denominator?

[MartinC]

9 minutes ago, UK Skins said:

This is a fascinating discussion. Can I throw in the WRs not getting separation too? Why that is I'm not sure we know yet but that's got to force Sam to hold onto the ball longer.

 

Then is that play design (spacing, route timing and combinations) or is it receivers just not winning quickly

[UK Skins]

1 minute ago, MartinC said:

 

Then is that play design (spacing, route timing and combinations) or is it receivers just not winning quickly

 

I personally think play design as it's the same four WRs as last year. But they need to find out fast as Sam's interception numbers are going to rise when he starts throwing the ball earlier to avoid all the pressure.

[BRAVEONTHEWARPATH93]

1 hour ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

@BRAVEONTHEWARPATH93

 

Given your theory that in modern football, sacks are primarily on the QB - why do good teams spend so much money and draft resources on offensive lineman?

 

Seems like a waste when in your mind all the QB has to do is just buy time in the pocket and get rid of the ball.

 

 

 

 

It’s not a waste at all. I’d love to have an elite OLine. But if the QB can’t manipulate a pocket, it won’t matter and he’ll still take a ton of sacks and the perception from fans will be that the OLine is overrated/bad. Case in point, Carson Wentz with Philadelphia. In 2020 for example, they had basically had the same elite OLine they had now but Wentz still took a crap ton of sucks despite the fact he had Kelce, Johnson, and Jordan M blocking for him. Why? Because he had the sack gene. PFF analysts would constantly bring up how Iggles fans hated them bc they would grade out their line pretty well despite the amount of sacks. Similar conversation here. Then Wentz went to Indy and then here and had the same issue. Meanwhile, the Iggles put Hurts in and all of a sudden, the sacks dramatically drop. 
 

QBs with the sack gene make Olines look way way worse than what they are. For years, the narrative in Seattle was that they were negligent for not doing more to build their line (and tbf, they didn’t do a lot) but looking back on what we know about Russell Wilson, he was likely the main driver bc he’s had that issue every year of his career basically. 
 

Perfect timing with this tweet btw. Sums up this entire debate quite well. Fan has no idea what he’s seeing and blames PFF:

 

 

Edited October 18, 2023 by BRAVEONTHEWARPATH93

[KDawg]

3 minutes ago, BRAVEONTHEWARPATH93 said:

It’s not a waste at all. I’d love to have an elite OLine. But if the QB can’t manipulate a pocket, it won’t matter and he’ll still take a ton of sacks and the perception from fans will be that the OLine is overrated/bad. Case in point, Carson Wentz with Philadelphia. In 2020 for example, they had basically had the same elite OLine they had now but Wentz still took a crap ton of sucks despite the fact he had Kelce, Johnson, and Jordan M blocking for him. Why? Because he had the sack gene. PFF analysts would constantly bring up how Iggles fans hated them bc they would grade out their line pretty well despite the amount of sacks. Similar conversation here. Then Wentz went to Indy and then here and had the same issue. Meanwhile, the Iggles put Hurts in and all of a sudden, the sacks dramatically drop. 
 

QBs with the sack gene make Olines look way way worse than what they are. For years, the narrative in Seattle was that they were negligent for not doing more to build their line (and tbf, they didn’t do a lot) but looking back on what we know about Russell Wilson, he was likely the main driver bc he’s had that issue every year of his career basically. 
 

Perfect timing with this tweet btw. Sums up this entire debate quite well. Fan has no idea what he’s seeing and blames PFF:

 

 

This is a coverage sack. Not on Lucas, not on Howell. Howell did the right thing and tried to escape, Lucas did the right thing as well.

 

Dupree made a hustle sack.

 

Happens. 

[NewCliche21]

40 minutes ago, MartinC said:

 

I think like most problems in a complex system involving humans its rare there is a single cause. Sam certainly seems to have a trait that he wants to get the ball downfield and does not want to give up on plays. Thats coachable IMO - but it will always be a trait. Id rather have that problem that a guy who goes straight to the check down.

 

But scheme plays a part (do we want to read long to short or short to long?), so does play design (are there easy check downs and hot reads).

 

Then you layer on the O'Line. 

 

Its combination of all the above IMO.

 

I remember a few years back, in fact I think it was against ATL, Kirk threw a pick six in overtime. Some people were arguing it was a bad throw, others that the receiver ran the wrong route, and others that the defense made a play.

It was amazing to see that there were so few who thought maybe it was all three. Like more than one person can be at fault in a game that has 22 players on the field every play.

[KDawg]

10 minutes ago, KDawg said:

This is a coverage sack. Not on Lucas, not on Howell. Howell did the right thing and tried to escape, Lucas did the right thing as well.

 

Dupree made a hustle sack.

 

Happens. 

Replying to myself after watching that back. I’m actually really interested why Howell’s read was to the 3 receiver surface first. With the slot defender off the line of scrimmage on the left and the concept called, the sit route on the left by Brown would be naturally open to that side. With the slot down on the field side and the corner sitting over the top (but playing flats), even by alignment without the disguise the read should have been Dyami.

 

So, is that Howell predicating his reads or was that playcall intended to go to the 3 receiver surface?

[BRAVEONTHEWARPATH93]

1 hour ago, zCommander said:

 

A QB should be able to move around the pocket. Yes. What pocket though? When Sam does have a pocket he does makes plays. Do you want Sam to create his own pocket somehow? Also when you say on plays there is zero chance a QB can do anything but isn't that issue we have right now? There are a lot more zero chances than not. That would be because of our OL is not creating a safe space for Sam to throw from. Sam is not finding a pocket to climb into as it crumbles faster than a cookie. 

 

As for 10 years ago, I posted it even back then, the OL actually said (via the media) they like run plays over pass plays because RG3 would immediately start running around behind the LOS and it was hard to protect him for that long. It had nothing to do with RG3 holding on to the ball too long because RG3 had a hard time reading the defenses and would not know what to do (compared to before his knee got destroyed he would just take off running instead). Throwing from a pocket was not RG3 greatest strength. But since you didn't know what the OL actually said back then about RG3 you are assuming the sacks were on him because he was holding on to the ball too long. That was not the case. 

Regarding the RG3 part and honestly Sam as well, the “holding the ball too long” piece is oversimplifying the issue. Moving around in a pocket is a feel thing. A slight step to the side here or a slight step up there. The idea of 5 linemen just standing up every blocker like you’re playing Madden on rookie is unrealistic. What you can’t do is bail out of the pocket and run around into defenders. That’s what RG3 constantly did and that’s what Sam really started to do on Sunday and that was concerning.