The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[mhd24]

Is Ryan even an upgrade?  Mobility is a huge issue.  He's a statue back there.  He's getting older and does his arm even play outdoors (obviously Indy plays in a dome).  

[Skinsinparadise]

15 minutes ago, mhd24 said:

Is Ryan even an upgrade?  Mobility is a huge issue.  He's a statue back there.  He's getting older and does his arm even play outdoors (obviously Indy plays in a dome).  

 

Ryan isn't mobile but I think the Ryan statue stuff is overplayed.  Peyton, Brady, Brees, etc were much more statues than Ryan.    Ryan has run for about 1500 yards in his career, more than double for example Brees.  Don't get me wrong Ryan isn't mobile but he gets picked on as if his mobility is the worst and its not. Wentz ran a 4.77. Ryan a 4.89.   And Wentz is considered mobile and he certainly is.  

 

I do think Ryan is an upgrade and clearly so if he can regain his form. But its an if and its a big if that last year's down season for him wasn't a one off season as opposed to the start of a decline.  That to me is the mystery narrative about Ryan.  But I can see how they can sell themselves on Ryan > Wentz.   

 

And they aren't the only ones who think that, some personnel guys have echoed the same this off season, the PFF guys all from what I can recall agree also that Ryan is better.  The narrative for that is Wentz is a roller coaster and Ryan is much more steady and Ryan much more clutch.  And Ryan has had his own elite level seasons -- Ryan's 2016 and 2018 seasons were every bit as good as Wentz's 2017 season if not even better than it.

 

Don't get me wrong i like the Wentz deal but i am not bothered by the Ryan > Wentz stuff.  Ryan easily has had the better career.  The question to me is does he decline now that he's getting older?

 

Edited May 3, 2022 by Skinsinparadise

[cakmoney61]

13 hours ago, TheShredder said:

Jim Irsay said that they moved on from Wentz because in the end they needed more consistency and leadership.

So, from the cheap seats it appears that had Carr not made that miracle escape and throw at the end of the game, Colts would have clinched and Wentz sits vs Jags going into Wild Card weekend. Hmmmm... Sounds more like RR & Co give draft picks and pick up full salary was too good to pass up after the Colts miss the playoffs and Irsay was pissed off!

 

Also said Wentz was a hard worker and trade wasn't from lack of effort.

 

Makes me wonder what kind of closer or finisher Wentz will be. He needs to prove he can lead his team to Wins week on week (string together W's and isolate L's)

Washington never catches breaks or have good luck when it comes to QBs.  Jim Irsay's irrational lack of patience may have been the break Washington needed to somehow finally end up with a possible franchise QB. 

 

When Wentz was toying with Washington's defense, I looked on with envy upset that Washington never gets nice things like Wentz.  Well guess what.  Washington has him in his prime.

 

I simply can't ask for more.  Especially if that dominant Wentz reappears with Washington.

[FootballZombie]

22 minutes ago, mhd24 said:

Is Ryan even an upgrade?  Mobility is a huge issue.  He's a statue back there.  He's getting older and does his arm even play outdoors (obviously Indy plays in a dome).  

 

I think he is an upgrade, and a clear cut one. Dude puts up numbers and is always the focal point of his teams philosophy.

 

 

Those several QB ranking lists I referenced before have Wentz at 21.7 on average and Ryan at 16 on the nose. (2021 list, so no Watson) I'd say a lot of people outside this board see it that way too.

[Warhead36]

Ryan is better than Wentz. No doubt about that. But he's also a lot older. The Colts will have to find another new QB in a year or two.

[ium786]

I just watched a few highlights of Cole Kelley… holy smokes, I think I am in love.

Edited May 3, 2022 by ium786

[Voice_of_Reason]

2 hours ago, Simmsy said:

 

It isn't the fact that it's what happened, it's because it seems like the fact that none of this is true. Why try so hard to trash the guy for so long, he's gone now...let it go.

[Skinsinparadise]

24 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Ryan is better than Wentz. No doubt about that. But he's also a lot older. The Colts will have to find another new QB in a year or two.

 

Yeah the age factor to me seems to be ignored by some in the media in that Wentz-Ryan narrative.  If they were the same age, slam dunk Ryan > Wentz and it's not even IMO debatable but that's not the case.  If they get it right with Wentz, they found a franchise QB hitting his peak years.  If the Colts get it right, they are riding Ryan in his sunset years.

  

I am listening now to a Standig podcast as I am typing this and hearing a WP reporter crap on this potential of this team saying we are competing with the Giants for the basement.  I know from other segments with that same reporter that they don't care for Wentz.  Trying to think who does among the local reporters?  The national reporters crap on him mostly too -- heck even during the draft when they took Howell -- Ian Rapoport crapped on Wentz a little saying the team believes in him unlike the rest of the league or something like that.

 

There are definitely some stragglers who do like the move, Chris Simms, Kiper-McShay, Cosell and heck even an Eagles reporter on Sheehan's show liked the deal albiet Sheehan ignored the endorsement part of the trade and clung to the negative comments.  

 

I know heading into the season there was this narrative about they need to build some excitement with the name change and declining fan attendance/TV ratings.  On that front, IMO Ron gets a fat F but I'll give him that he tried for Russell Wilson which would have brought the buzz, so he was aware and gave it a shot.  The moves they made including Wentz aren't buzz worthy and the media hasn't helped because they've mostly crapped on the off season.  I don't think they've moved the needle one whit on generating excitment to get the more casual fan back to the fold.   I also somewhat judging it in a biased way based on my own kids who have been much much jazzed about other off seasons compared to this one.  So as for the goal of doing something to generate buzz I wouldn't even give them a D, I'd say its a fat F.

 

Having said that, it feels good to me that the media-causal fans likely see nothing exciting about this off season.  We've had off seasons where even the cynical local media thought they killed it.  And the results didn't come.  So like Sheehan likes to say bet against the consensus and you are more likely to win.  lol, he believes in that but I guess not when it comes to Wentz.  I think they've made some really good off season moves and this team will be better than people think.  Maybe them winning will generate the needed buzz.  Granted this team doesn't have the star power that some other teams have -- that's is, players that people come to see regardless of whether they win or lose.  But on that front maybe Chase Young coming back healthy proves to be that guy.

 

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

41 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Ryan is better than Wentz. No doubt about that. But he's also a lot older. The Colts will have to find another new QB in a year or two.

Ryan has been better than Wentz for a longer period of time.  
 

But there is the possibility he will drop off significantly at any point because he’s really old.  So it’s still a risk as to whether or not he’s actually an upgrade.

 

And yeah, I’d give it 75% they will need a new opening day QB in 2024.  Maybe not 2023, but they are 2 years away from being in QB purgatory again…

[Thinking Skins]

51 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Ryan is better than Wentz. No doubt about that. But he's also a lot older. The Colts will have to find another new QB in a year or two.

And the elephant in the room is that with his lack of mobility, he's more likely to get injured  Add i their bad OL and yeah, its a ticking timebomb. So who's going to take the majority of their snaps? Are they still going to be feeling good about getting rid of Wentz? 

[FootballZombie]

2 minutes ago, Thinking Skins said:

And the elephant in the room is that with his lack of mobility, he's more likely to get injured  Add i their bad OL and yeah, its a ticking timebomb. So who's going to take the majority of their snaps?

 

Oddly enough, I'm not sure if there is a QB in the NFL who has stayed healthier than Ryan.

 

in his 14 year career, dude has missed three games total.

in the last 12 years he has missed 1.

 

That is despite taking a lot of sacks. (Near the top of the league over almost any span if I remember correctly)

Absolutely Un-explainable durability.

[Thinking Skins]

17 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

Ryan has been better than Wentz for a longer period of time.  
 

But there is the possibility he will drop off significantly at any point because he’s really old.  So it’s still a risk as to whether or not he’s actually an upgrade.

 

And yeah, I’d give it 75% they will need a new opening day QB in 2024.  Maybe not 2023, but they are 2 years away from being in QB purgatory again…

So whats interesting in this is that I don't buy the Ryan>Wentz stuff. 

 

Ryan is clearly on the downside of his career and Wentz is up and down. 

Look at last year category by category

Age 36 vs 29, advantage Wentz - 1

Record: 7-10 vs 9-8, advantage Wentz - 2

Comp %: 67 vs 62.4, advantage Ryan - 1

Yards: 3968 vs 3563, advantage Ryan - 2

TDs: 20 vs 27, advantage Wentz - 3

Td%: 3.6 vs 5.2, advantage Wentz - 4

ints: 12 vs 7, advantage Wentz - 5

Int% 2.1 vs 1.4, advantage Wentz - 6

1st downs: 195 vs 165, advantae Ryan - 3

Long: 64 vs 76, advantage Wentz - 7

YPA: 7.1 vs 6.9, advantage Ryan - 4

AYPA: 6.8 v 7.3, advantage Wentz - 8

YPC: 10.6 vs 11.1, advantage Wentz - 9

YPG: 233.4 vs 209.6, advantage Ryan - 5

Rating: 90.4 vs 94.6, advantage Wentz - 10

QBR: 46.1 vs 54.7, advantage Wentz - 11

Sacks: 40 vs 32, advantage Wentz - 12

Sack yards 274 vs 227, advantage Wentz - 13

Sack Percent: 6.7 vs 5.8, advantage Wentz - 14

NYPA: 6.16 vs 5.8, advantage Ryan - 6

ANYPA: 5.92 vs 6.09, advantage Wentz - 15

4Qc: 3 vs 0, advantage Ryan - 7

 

So by a score of 15 to 7, we have Wentz as having a better QB than Ryan JUST LAST YEAR. And if Ryan's on a downward slope, (last year was his lowest rating since 2015), then its not hard to imagine that we came out much better in this. But thats not how the press will play it. So I'll shut up and listen. 

GWD: 4 vs 0, advantage Ryan

11	Matt Ryan	ATL	36	QB	17	17	7-10-0	375	560	67	3968	20	3.6	12	2.1	195	64	7.1	6.8	10.6	233.4	90.4	46.1	40	274	6.7	6.16	5.92	3	4
18	Carson Wentz	IND	29	QB	17	17	9-8-0	322	516	62.4	3563	27	5.2	7	1.4	165	76	6.9	7.3	11.1	209.6	94.6	54.7	32	227	5.8	6.09	6.50

12 minutes ago, FootballZombie said:

 

Oddly enough, I'm not sure if there is a QB in the NFL who has stayed healthier than Ryan.

 

in his 14 year career, dude has missed three games total.

in the last 12 years he has missed 1.

 

That is despite taking a lot of sacks. (Near the top of the league over almost any span if I remember correctly)

Absolutely Un-explainable durability.

But Peyton Manning had the ironman streak for the longest time until he got knocked out. Father time is undefeated. And even if he's not going to miss time, the Ryan we saw last year (who we beat) was not the one who took his team to the SB. He looked like a shell of himself. His QBR was in the 40s. The two years prior it was in the 50s, before that it was in the 60s, before that it was in the 70s. Dude is on a downward slope in his career. 

[CommDownMan]

15 hours ago, 88Comrade2000 said:

We are a Dan Snyder team and bad karma permeates us.

 

Here's what will happen.

 

Ron will barely play Carson in preseason.

Carson starts out 2-2 and then has a season ending injury.

Sam, who won the backup job, plays 4 games before having a season ending injury. He goes 1-3.

Taylor finishes the season and he goes 4-5.

We finish 7-11.

 

 

 

In this scenario we'd have a 2nd round pick, so there's that. 

[CommDownMan]

22 minutes ago, Thinking Skins said:

So whats interesting in this is that I don't buy the Ryan>Wentz stuff. 

 

Ryan is clearly on the downside of his career and Wentz is up and down. 

Look at last year category by category

Age 36 vs 29, advantage Wentz - 1

Record: 7-10 vs 9-8, advantage Wentz - 2

Comp %: 67 vs 62.4, advantage Ryan - 1

Yards: 3968 vs 3563, advantage Ryan - 2

TDs: 20 vs 27, advantage Wentz - 3

Td%: 3.6 vs 5.2, advantage Wentz - 4

ints: 12 vs 7, advantage Wentz - 5

Int% 2.1 vs 1.4, advantage Wentz - 6

1st downs: 195 vs 165, advantae Ryan - 3

Long: 64 vs 76, advantage Wentz - 7

YPA: 7.1 vs 6.9, advantage Ryan - 4

AYPA: 6.8 v 7.3, advantage Wentz - 8

YPC: 10.6 vs 11.1, advantage Wentz - 9

YPG: 233.4 vs 209.6, advantage Ryan - 5

Rating: 90.4 vs 94.6, advantage Wentz - 10

QBR: 46.1 vs 54.7, advantage Wentz - 11

Sacks: 40 vs 32, advantage Wentz - 12

Sack yards 274 vs 227, advantage Wentz - 13

Sack Percent: 6.7 vs 5.8, advantage Wentz - 14

NYPA: 6.16 vs 5.8, advantage Ryan - 6

ANYPA: 5.92 vs 6.09, advantage Wentz - 15

4Qc: 3 vs 0, advantage Ryan - 7

 

So by a score of 15 to 7, we have Wentz as having a better QB than Ryan JUST LAST YEAR. And if Ryan's on a downward slope, (last year was his lowest rating since 2015), then its not hard to imagine that we came out much better in this. But thats not how the press will play it. So I'll shut up and listen. 

GWD: 4 vs 0, advantage Ryan

11	Matt Ryan	ATL	36	QB	17	17	7-10-0	375	560	67	3968	20	3.6	12	2.1	195	64	7.1	6.8	10.6	233.4	90.4	46.1	40	274	6.7	6.16	5.92	3	4
18	Carson Wentz	IND	29	QB	17	17	9-8-0	322	516	62.4	3563	27	5.2	7	1.4	165	76	6.9	7.3	11.1	209.6	94.6	54.7	32	227	5.8	6.09	6.50

But Peyton Manning had the ironman streak for the longest time until he got knocked out. Father time is undefeated. And even if he's not going to miss time, the Ryan we saw last year (who we beat) was not the one who took his team to the SB. He looked like a shell of himself. His QBR was in the 40s. The two years prior it was in the 50s, before that it was in the 60s, before that it was in the 70s. Dude is on a downward slope in his career. 

 

Jones was traded in the offseason and ridley played only a few games.   

 

I don't know if colts receivers will be much better, but if imagine lack of experienced receivers made a difference last year. 

[FootballZombie]

4 minutes ago, Thinking Skins said:

He looked like a shell of himself. His QBR was in the 40s. The two years prior it was in the 50s, before that it was in the 60s, before that it was in the 70s. Dude is on a downward slope in his career. 

 

They did trade away Julio before the season and Ridley played in like 4(?) games. Those two alone were probably nearly 50% of ATLs 2020 passing offense.

Matt Ryan still came out and still had a good year, while carrying his team. The slightly down numbers don't scare me.

 

And if any QBs game is gonna age well, its gonna be someone who plays the game like Matt Ryan.

 

 

 

[Thinking Skins]

10 minutes ago, FootballZombie said:

 

They did trade away Julio before the season and Ridley played in like 4(?) games. Those two alone were probably nearly 50% of ATLs 2020 passing offense.

Matt Ryan still came out and still had a good year, while carrying his team. The slightly down numbers don't scare me.

 

And if any QBs game is gonna age well, its gonna be someone who plays the game like Matt Ryan.

 

 

 

That doesn't explain the decline since 2018. I've never really been a fan of Ryan because he was and will always be compared to Flacco. They came in together. Both had good teams and made the playoffs regularly but one guy was it and another guy was carried by his team. But one of those guys was regularly beating Brady while the other lost a 28-3 lead in the super bowl to him. 

 

I hate to say it but Ryan is a top tier Kirk. 

[FootballZombie]

9 minutes ago, Thinking Skins said:

That doesn't explain the decline since 2018. I've never really been a fan of Ryan because he was and will always be compared to Flacco. They came in together. Both had good teams and made the playoffs regularly but one guy was it and another guy was carried by his team. But one of those guys was regularly beating Brady while the other lost a 28-3 lead in the super bowl to him. 

 

I hate to say it but Ryan is a top tier Kirk. 

 

2020 Ryan had more yds, the same TDs and less Ints than 2019 Ryan... I don't see it

 

Top-tier Kirk? Kirk is better than Ryan, and that is not close.

 

If you have him as top-tier Kirk, then you have Wentz > Ryan > Cousins... Bruh.

 

The QB rankings list I puled has average rankings of

 

Wentz - 21.7

Ryan - 16

Cousins - 12.4

 

I get having personal rankings and skews but c'mon man there is a limit.

[Thinking Skins]

1 minute ago, FootballZombie said:

 

2020 Ryan had more yds, the same TDs and less Ints than 2019 Ryan... I don't see it

 

Top-tier Kirk? Kirk is better than Ryan, and that is not close.

 

If you have him as top-tier Kirk, then you have Wentz > Ryan > Cousins... Bruh.

 

The QB rankings list I puled has average rankings of

 

Wentz - 21.7

Ryan - 16

Cousins - 12.4

 

I get having personal rankings and skews but c'mon man there is a limit.

Ryan is an old version of Wentz. Ryan is better than Cousins because he went to the playoffs regularly as a starter, Kirk doesn't even have much of a playoff resume. Ryan did collapse in the SB but at least he went. Ryan had two years where he was MVP Level. Cousins has never had that unless you want to say last year which I don't as he wasn't winning games and his rating and QBR were not on the elite levels, simply the above average. 

 

So yes Wentz and Ryan at their best are better than Cousins. On the average day, I think Cousins is in his prime (towards the end of it), Wentz is in his prime years and Ryan is on the decline. But I think they're all about the same level as a QB. All can do great things in Q1-3 or on the 80 yards that don't matter. But when the presure mounts, they need to show that they can do it. That's been the problem with Cousins and Ryan all their career. I haven't studied Wentz as much but it seems to be the story I hear about him most. 

[mistertim]

3 minutes ago, Thinking Skins said:

Ryan is an old version of Wentz.

 

IMO Ryan and Wentz are very different QBs, so not sure what you mean by this. Ryan is mostly a pure pocket passer who's very accurate, has an ok but not elite arm, and has generally been a bit more of a high tier game manager. Wentz is more of a scrambler/improviser, has a cannon for an arm, and has always been more of a gunslinger.

[Koolblue13]

If it were for nothing, side by side, I'd take Wentz over Ryan. I've never been much of a fan of Ryan and I have been of Wentz.

 

Amazing how we went from a weakness and absolute gapping hole of a QB room, to a positive strength. I know there are questions, but Wentz, Heini and Howell is a good looking QB room.

[FootballZombie]

10 minutes ago, Thinking Skins said:

Kirk doesn't even have much of a playoff resume.

 

Wentz entire playoff resume is 1/4 25% comp percentage 3 yds and a sack. Pretty sure both Kirk and Ryan have him beat there.

 

Even on your grading scale, those rankings are iffy.

[Voice_of_Reason]

@Thinking Skins that’s really good analysis.  
 

I think one of the things the last 2-3 years which has held Ryan back is the Falcons have been a bad team. 
 

I actually like aryan as a QB, but I wouldn’t have traded for him simply because you know you’re almost immediately back in the market for a QB.

 

I don’t think it would be shocking to see him have a significant rebound year with a better colts team.  
 

But regardless, it’s short lived just because of his age, and I don’t think he is playing into his 40’s at a high level like Brady and Rodgers.

 

abut that’s an absolutely outstanding post.  Post of the day I’d say.  

[Thinking Skins]

12 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

IMO Ryan and Wentz are very different QBs, so not sure what you mean by this. Ryan is mostly a pure pocket passer who's very accurate, has an ok but not elite arm, and has generally been a bit more of a high tier game manager. Wentz is more of a scrambler/improviser, has a cannon for an arm, and has always been more of a gunslinger.

Both can get you 8-10 wins, but haven't shown they can win in the playoffs.

Both can drive you down a field but have problems getting it in the end zone.

Both have shown you they can keep you in games, but haven't been known for their 4th quarters, particularly late in the season. 

One has the record of biggest collapse in the SB. The other got hurt his SB year

 

But whereas we saw the glammor of Ryan early in his career (2016 MVP and another time in the running), he has been meh lately. Wentz over the past 5 (3 of the last 5) years has been better. 

 

10 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

If it were for nothing, side by side, I'd take Wentz over Ryan. I've never been much of a fan of Ryan and I have been of Wentz.

 

Amazing how we went from a weakness and absolute gapping hole of a QB room, to a positive strength. I know there are questions, but Wentz, Heini and Howell is a good looking QB room.

Don't forget the practice squad QB Kelley. 

Edited May 3, 2022 by Thinking Skins

[xxprodigyxx]

am i crazy for liking our quarterback situation right now? i wasn't a huge fan of the wentz trade, but i understood the rationale. i like that, as of now, we are not tied to wentz for the long term. we have a competent backup in henicke who can also help bring the other qbs up to speed on the offense and how it should be run. now, we have a developmental qb that i like.

 

though i'd hope wentz puts us over and makes us contenders, realistically, it is not likely. therefore, the likely outcome is that wentz plays meh or poorly. we get a chance to evaluate howell. if neither holds any promise, we can cut bait and do something in the 2023 draft.

[FootballZombie]

7 minutes ago, Thinking Skins said:

Wentz over the past 5 (4 of the last 5) years has been better. 

 

Ryan and Cousins average more yards over the last 5 years than Wentz has gotten in his career high season. These numbies don't add up that way