The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[method man]

There are a couple more mid round guys with potential no one has talked about - Jurkovec from BC and Barriere from Eastern Washington. The former has prototypical size and is tough as nails, currently playing with a severe hand injury. The latter will probably win the FCS Heisman - he has put up video game type of numbers as a passer and is a good runner too.

 

It’s obvious to me that the value for QBs in this draft is mid first into early Day 3. 
 

Even if I take a Howell in the first, I’d also love to grab a Haener, Jurkovec or Barriere in the 4th or 5th too. Remember that we have Heinicke for one more year and he probably won’t want to stay if he knows a Howell type is going to get the long term nod over him so it’d be a chance to get a long term backup with upside. I may be mistaken but the last two times we took 2 QBs in Day 1, the 2nd guy taken ended up being a Pro Bowler (Frerotte and Cousins).

 

 

[Koolblue13]

Just now, method man said:

There are a couple more mid round guys with potential no one has talked about - Jurkovec from BC and Barriere from Eastern Washington. The former has prototypical size and is tough as nails, currently playing with a severe hand injury. The latter will probably win the FCS Heisman - he has put up video game type of numbers as a passer and is a good runner too.

 

It’s obvious to me that the value for QBs in this draft is mid first into early Day 3. 
 

Even if I take a Howell in the first, I’d also love to grab a Haener, Jurkovec or Barriere in the 4th or 5th too. Remember that we have Heinicke for one more year and he probably won’t want to stay if he knows a Howell type is going to get the long term nod over him so it’d be a chance to get a long term backup with upside. I may be mistaken but the last two times we took 2 QBs in Day 1, the 2nd guy taken ended up being a Pro Bowler (Frerotte and Cousins).

 

 

Those guys rarely work out, but I'd take one too. Howell in the first and Haener in the 4rth? Okay with me.

[Skinsinparadise]

53 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

Those guys rarely work out, but I'd take one too. Howell in the first and Haener in the 4rth? Okay with me.

 

I am loving getting the Haener mentions here now.  As Rivera likes to say, I will speak it into existence.  

[KDawg]

Just now, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I am loving getting the Haener mentions here now.  As Rivera likes to say, I will speak it into existence.  

Takes me some time to get to the mid level guys. Watched a touch of him. There’s something there. Not sure what yet without really watching but he is eye catching.

[Skinsinparadise]

Just now, KDawg said:

Takes me some time to get to the mid level guys. Watched a touch of him. There’s something there. Not sure what yet without really watching but he is eye catching.

 

IMO:  pocket presence, off platform throws, tough in the pocket, good accuracy.  He has a bit of a baller-plays with moxie.  I watched him mic'd up for a practice and the dude is brimming with energy and enthusiasm.   He will fall IMO because he doesn't have any really freakish attribute.   Sort of a jack of all trades master of none -- but his style and energy jump out at me.  I thought it was ironic that a scout called him recently a rich man's Heinicke.  

[Koolblue13]

9 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I am loving getting the Haener mentions here now.  As Rivera likes to say, I will speak it into existence.  

I enjoy your enthusiasm and I dont really watch QBs so what the hell? I'll ride that train with you. 

[Skinsinparadise]

4 hours ago, KDawg said:

I’m on the fence here. I know it’s not popular to be in the middle but right now I am.

 

My current stance is this:

 

1) Give the rest of the season to truly evaluate Heinicke 

 

2) if a true upgrade is available via trade, FA or the draft… go after them

 

That’s my general process for upgrading positions.

 

Using Heinicke I’d say there are certainly upgrades to be had and fliers to be taken. 
 

In the draft specifically: Corral, Howell are definitive upgrades. Willis is very likely an upgrade but we don’t know how well he’d play the position at the pro level. Pickett is a wait and see if he can throw the ball.

 

So two guys I’d take definitively as upgrades now and one who has the ability to be a superstar but not a great QB as it currently stands.

 

So three guys I’d take early.

 

After that it’s mid round dudes with potential. Haener, Armstrong types to come in and be a backup and to see if they have anything heading into 2023.

 

But it’s still early. By the time the draft comes we may think Heinicke is a bad QB and there are 9 upgrades. Or he’s fantastic and there is just one. 
 

Got to let it play out more. 

 

We've debated a little here lately on the topic but still I am closer to your take than my take matches some others here.

 

I agree as to play out the Heinicke sample.  I am also cool with Heinicke being the veteran next season.   I think our only difference is I think the pool of upgrades might be larger.   So in turn its not easy for me to accept a scenario of them being shut out this off season.  I get pissy when I think of them being shut out of adding a young QB in this draft.    Also I want a young Qb regardless of whether Heinicke plays well or not. 

 

The rest of my post isn't directed to you but just explaining my general mindset.  I want to double down on this spot.   We almost all got our thing that we are jaded about over time.  For me, I am so cynical at this point about the Qb spot.  That I wouldn't even fully trust a nice run from Heinicke to end the season.  I'd want to see that run extended next year.   There are plenty of QBs who have been 1 year wonders.  And you got me if that would be the case with Heinicke but I am not going to just trust it.   And its not personal to him, I'd feel that way about any QB with the exception of if we drafted some freakish talent.  But heck even when we did draft arguably a freakish talent that crashed, too. 

 

I am so jaded about the spot that I feel like I gather Jimmy Johnson did when he took over Dallas.  He took Aikman.  Then he took Walsh.   Take two big swings and hope if 1 fails the other works. 

 

We've had such a run of bad luck at that spot that its hard for me to digest that our luck turn arounds by them finding a franchise QB in a really unconventional way with a QB who has unconventional arm talent compared to the typical franchise QB.  I am not ruling it out but I can't bank on it.  My hopes have been dashed too many times over the years by other teases we've had at this spot for me to dive deep in the pool thinking this time its different.  All the other times feel different too in the moment. 

 

 

 

13 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

I enjoy your enthusiasm and I dont really watch QBs so what the hell? I'll ride that train with you. 

 

OK, thanks, cool I'll keep up the hype. 

Edited November 27, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[Koolblue13]

I want Heinicke to blow up so we can draft daxton hill or Devine lloyd.

[Thinking Skins]

2 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

Game day throws are too variable and dynamic to need a measurement like that.  You could line every QB up and have them throw a scripted route from a specific spot against air and radar gun that ball speed and it wouldn't really tell you much about their arm talent in the context of quarterbacking.

 

TBH you don't really need to push the ball with everything you've got that often in a game.  It's more about throwing it fast enough to beat that specific coverage you are facing while still putting it in place and making it catchable.  It's not that mechanically standard and happens at an instinctual level for the quarterback.  It's like you just feel how hard you need to throw it and where it needs to be placed and then you do that of you can.  And the guys with the most arm talent are the ones who can do it in the most dynamic ways, as in doing it on the move or off balance etc.

I kinda agree with this, but with a lot of the post processing stuff thats going on riht now, Iit wouldn't surprise me to see somebody come up with a stat that averages a QBs velocity over all his throws. But honestly if they wind up doing that, I'd also be interested in seeing stuff like average time for windup (and variance). This may already exist since I have a picture of it in my mind. But I'd also like to see something like feet alignment (on average). How often are they setting their feet correctly? How many reads are they going through on average? 

 

I have a feeling that we're on the cusp of a lot of these type of analytics. I don't know how much use they will be in the grand scheme of things, cause people will simply use it to support their own arguments but it will be more interesting to have concrete facts on this stuff rather than just I thinks. 

[Skinsinparadise]

10 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

I want Heinicke to blow up so we can draft daxton hill or Devine lloyd.

 

Love watching college games where you got snow, so digging the Michigan game so far and I dig Daxton Hill.  I admit I haven't watched Lloyd, yet.  I have watched Nakobe Dean, in real time, versus studying him, and that dude looks like a freak.  Supposedly high intangibles, too.

 

Unless Heinicke really goes to town in a big way to end the season, I want a QB in the first.   I get the idea of not forcing a pick but my gut is I don't think they will have to force it.  But will see.  If they don't draft a Qb, they double down on Heinicke and Heinicke regresses next season, then Rivera would be on notice with me.

 

 

 

Edited November 27, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[Koolblue13]

15 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Love watching college games where you got snow, so digging the Michigan game so far and I dig Daxton Hill.  I admit I haven't watched Lloyd, yet.  I have watched Nakobe Dean, in real time, versus studying him, and that dude looks like a freak.  Supposedly high intangibles, too.

 

Unless Heinicke really goes to town in a big way to end the season, I want a QB in the first.   I get the idea of not forcing a pick but my gut is I don't think they will have to force it.  But will see.  If they don't draft a Qb, they double down on Heinicke and Heinicke regresses next season, then Rivera would be on notice with me.

 

 

 

I'd be cool with Dean too. Might as well throw Hamilton in there for fantasy fun. We are definitely going QB in the first. Only way that doesn't automatically happen is we win a home playoff game and Heinicke stays at the level he was last week. Then I think code red is off for the position and the top 4 go before us. Then only a Haener makes sense later.

[50yrSKINSfan]

31 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

I want Heinicke to blow up so we can draft daxton hill or Devine lloyd.

I want Heinicke to light it up starting with the Hawks Monday. They have been a thorne for a long time. I then want him to go 4and 1 in our remaining division games and win the division and pos win a playoff game. Don't know about you guys but watching these last 2 games has been so enjoyable that I want more. TH reminds me of Kilmer with his guts and desire to win but of course he is a much better all around player. If we get a QB in the draft then fine but as it stands right now I could live with TH.

[El Mexican]

2 hours ago, Florgon79 said:

That's nice but Bill Walsh coached in a different NFL. 

 

Is it really?

 

Come cold weather, year after year, I see the same pattern almost always succeding in the playoffs:

 

Above average defensive play

Control the clock offensive strategy

Competent QB 

 

 

 

 

Edited November 27, 2021 by El Mexican

[CobraCommander]

Just now, El Mexican said:

 

Is it really?

 

Come cold weather, year after year, I see the same pattern almost always succeding in the playoffs:

 

Above average defensive play

Control the clock offensive strategy

Competent QB 

 

 

 

 

 

I think the idea of a competent QB is pretty vague. By definition all the elite QBs are competent. 

Just look at completion percentages for the top 50 qbs in completion percentage and tell me what stands out to you.

 

https://www.footballdb.com/leaders/career-passing-completionpct

[El Mexican]

4 hours ago, Florgon79 said:

 

I think the idea of a competent QB is pretty vague. By definition all the elite QBs are competent. 

Just look at completion percentages for the top 50 qbs in completion percentage and tell me what stands out to you.

 

https://www.footballdb.com/leaders/career-passing-completionpct

 

Nothing really stands out to me. What pattern are you looking for?

QB is just one important variable of a playoff-caliber team.

 

Are you implying the level of play most of these current of just retired QBs are what's needed to compete in today's NFL?

Edited November 27, 2021 by El Mexican

[CobraCommander]

17 minutes ago, El Mexican said:

 

Nothing really stands out to me. What pattern are you looking for?

QB is just one important variable of a playoff-caliber team.

 

Are you implying the level of play most of these current of just retired QBs are what's needed to compete in today's NFL?

The only QB not from the modern era on that list is Joe Montana. Bill Walsh found his success with a really good QB. One whose numbers stand up to todays  modern passers. 

[ium786]

13 hours ago, method man said:

There are a couple more mid round guys with potential no one has talked about - Jurkovec from BC and Barriere from Eastern Washington. The former has prototypical size and is tough as nails, currently playing with a severe hand injury. The latter will probably win the FCS Heisman - he has put up video game type of numbers as a passer and is a good runner too.

 

It’s obvious to me that the value for QBs in this draft is mid first into early Day 3. 
 

Even if I take a Howell in the first, I’d also love to grab a Haener, Jurkovec or Barriere in the 4th or 5th too. Remember that we have Heinicke for one more year and he probably won’t want to stay if he knows a Howell type is going to get the long term nod over him so it’d be a chance to get a long term backup with upside. I may be mistaken but the last two times we took 2 QBs in Day 1, the 2nd guy taken ended up being a Pro Bowler (Frerotte and Cousins).

 

 

 

Man, I didn’t even know that guy Barriere even existed.  His highlights look good, similar to Malik Willis, but better stats.  I guess you never know where a sleeper might come from.  I hope our scouting department are doing their homework on these guys.  

[El Mexican]

16 hours ago, Florgon79 said:

The only QB not from the modern era on that list is Joe Montana. Bill Walsh found his success with a really good QB. One whose numbers stand up to todays  modern passers. 

 

That's what I mean, yes.

 

I find TH to have that special "touch" when delivering the ball instead of the cannon arm some guys around here want our QB to have.

Putting the ball where it needs to be worked for Montana and Young, both of which would never be classified as having great arms.

They also knew how to run and slide.

 

One can dream, ight?

Just now, El Mexican said:

 

That's what I mean, yes.

 

I find TH to have that special "touch" when delivering the ball instead of the cannon arm some guys around here want our QB to have.

Putting the ball where it needs to be worked for Montana and Young, both of which would never be classified as having great arms.

They also knew how to run and slide.

 

One can dream, right?

 

[ODU AGGIE]

What missing link?

[DWinzit]

TH is continuing entrench himself as the leader of this team. 

I am hoping the staff find one of the 1/2 QB's attractive and draft him to sit behind TH.

I could see them at least begin the season with a vet like Kyle Allen as insurance. If TH stays healthy and the prospect shows he is ready, you can release KA

The team would have two young QB's to compete and in nice shape moving forward. 

They will need to begin to think about extending TH at some point also.

With the sad news on Fitz's recovery (another surgery), I am not in favor of bringing him back if that were to be an option. I have had my fill of late 30's QB's on this team.

[Koolblue13]

It's Heinickes team if we can win out the year, without any ugliness from the position. We are drafting a QB for sure, but I'm not sure where and how aggressively. We're making the playoffs with a very injured team and can hopefully win one at least, but we're building a consistent contender with Heinicke and that's enough for now. The team and Heini can improve next season. 

[88Comrade2000]

Heini is going into 22 as the starter. They will resign Allen to be a backup. 
 

If we draft a qb to develop to eventually take over post Heini or if Heini falters; it will be after round 1.

 

If Taylor finishes strong, we may not draft a qb at all in 22.

[DWinzit]

5 hours ago, Rdskns2000 said:

Heini is going into 22 as the starter. They will resign Allen to be a backup. 
 

If we draft a qb to develop to eventually take over post Heini or if Heini falters; it will be after round 1.

 

If Taylor finishes strong, we may not draft a qb at all in 22.

Even if TH rocks out the remainder of the season, they need to draft someone they like by the end of day 2. 

 

If not, I would hope they bring in a backup with more potential than Allen.

 

Imagine if TH went down in game one and Allen was our only option for the reminder of the season, yuck.

[Thinking Skins]

8 minutes ago, DWinzit said:

Even if TH rocks out the remainder of the season, they need to draft someone they like by the end of day 2. 

 

If not, I would hope they bring in a backup with more potential than Allen.

 

Imagine if TH went down in game one and Allen was our only option for the reminder of the season, yuck.

I have no problem with this approach, but the reasoning is primarily to replace Allen more than Heinicke. And if they happen to stumble on a franchise QB, then so be it. At this moment this is Heinicke's team. He's playing some of the best QB we've seen since at least 2015 and maybe 2012. He deserves a chance to grow in this position. I've seen some names discussed here but I'm always more interested in what the front office and coaches know about these guys. People are skeptical about Coach/GMs (I have been too) but Gruden seemed to be better at it than anybody we've had as head scout, and now Ron and his coaches seem to be good at it. I do wonder if Marty Hearny was at the Heinicke practice with Turner years back. He's supposedly the one who loves scouting QBs and had a high grade on Herbert. 

[Skinsinparadise]

As for Heinicke, he seems to me a relevance QB not a SB QB or a franchise QB.  And that's cool but it doesn't stop me from looking at QBs.  For him to change my mind, ala what @Thinking Skins said in a post in the past, win a playoff game.  I am not talking win multiple playoff games.  Just one would assuage me.   Overall I am positive about Taylor. 

 

If its relevance we want, Heinicke fits the category of being one of the three best QBs under Dan assuming he stays on this track.  (I'll leave RG3 out of it since it was just one season).  

 

Kirk Cousins:  He can put up numbers and I don't scoff at that the way some others do.  Some of his critics here would say (before they turned on Jay) any dude could put up monster numbers in Jay's system.   They were wrong about that.  It's not easy to put up big numbers and just automatic pilot your way to 4500 yard type seasons, really good TD-INT ratios, etc.  His critics though IMO were right about his lack of a clutch gene.  He's not the dude I want in a big game-big moment.  I judge my feelings about some players about what I feel about them playing for a division rival.  I saw an article yesterday about the Vikings hypothetically trading Kirk to the Giants in the off season, and I know some here would love it, I wouldn't.  Kirk >>>>> Daniel Jones.  Kirk has things going for him.   But he's missing IMO the component to take a team to the promised land.  He can make a team competitive-relevant but IMO not a SB threat.

 

Alex Smith:  Great guy, knows how to game manage with the best of them.  Teammates loves him.   Perfect QB at times if you want to go Marty Ball because he doesn't make mistakes.  Really smart guy.   I also don't think he's a promised land type of QB and KC got rid of him partly for that reason.  He wasn't hot at making comebacks or winning in the playoffs.  He was limited when going head to head with teams that can put up points, see the Atlanta and Saints games for example.  But he will help keep your team relevant for sure.

 

Heinicke:  High intangibles, moxie, clutch gene.   IMO he has the mindset to beat the big teams that both Kirk and Alex lacked for different reasons.  I'd have loved to put his mindset in Alex's or Kirk's body. Why not a franchise QB?  Doesn't throw a hot deep ball IMO, lacks zip on his throws.  His accuracy can be inconsistent at times.  But he has great pocket presence and elusiveness.  Watching him, i can see him in conversation with Kirk and Alex as being good at times with an entirely different skill set than both of those guys.   But he doesn't strike me as a promised land type of QB.  I don't see greatness.  But I do see someone who can be good.   

 

That position is a middle ground take compared to what most seem to have on Heinicke which seems to be we found our guy, stop looking, franchise QB is here, versus he's a high end back up-low tier starter.  The more I watch Heinicke, the more I think both points of view are likely wrong.  As I go deeper in the journey, I see more and more to convince me that no way he's a great QB, top 10 type but also I see more to convince me he can be good -- sort of the middle of the road type QB that can keep you competitive -- different flavor from Kirk and Alex but can make you relevant like those 2 Qbs could.

 

For me, I'd definitely double up and draft a young QB, no hesitation from me about it.  And heck if Heinicke ends up the guy, regardless.  Great.  It's fun to be relevant.  If we go 9-8 and get knocked out in the playoffs.  It's cool.  But its also a very familar feeling for me.  That's peak Dan.  That's our version of SB seasons under Dan.  and it doesn't get me jazzed the way it used to.   The idea of we are slightly better than 500 and aren't taken seriously in the playoffs when we get there, been there done that enough.   Now if Heinicke steamrolls over Dallas and wins a playoff game, I'd feel differently.  I'd love to see him do it.  In other words, change that narrative versus repeat that narrative.  I don't minimize repeating the narrative, its cool to be relevant versus the alternative but my overall goal is bigger than that. 

 

 

Edited December 8, 2021 by Skinsinparadise