2022 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[Anselmheifer]

 

 

 

 

SIP, I don’t know if it bothers me if he runs a 4.62. 

[Skinsinparadise]

Hamilton at 11 in another mock.  Seems to be the hot name for us.

 

Even though i might be one of the leader of the band here that fights back on the idea that he's the best player in the draft which a number of mock drafters believe (Charles Davis being the latest one saying it), i'd be more than cool with it.  It's not my #1 want at 11.  but I'd be happy with it, nonetheless. 

 

https://www.profootballnetwork.com/2022-nfl-mock-draft-wilson-april/

11) Washington Commanders: Kyle Hamilton, S, Notre Dame

After cutting Landon Collins, the Commanders need help. Hamilton is the kind of big, rangy center fielder they need.

Excerpt from Kyle Hamilton’s NFL Scouting Report: Hamilton has uncommon size for the safety position. At 6’4″ and 219 pounds, he is a physical specimen. There are linebackers playing the game that don’t possess the same size as the Notre Dame safety. In addition to his size, Hamilton has elite length. Both his height and length make him a difficult proposition to throw against.

With that coverage radius, he can get his hands up to snag the ball out of the air. He can also use his long levers to reach around opposition receivers to disrupt the ball, knocking it away from their grasp. Hamilton is extremely disruptive at the catch point.

[evmiii]

If Stingley Jr or Hamilton are available at 11 I think they take them.  If not, best receiver on board.  I think Stingley’s upside is just too high to pass on him if he’s there.

[mistertim]

1 hour ago, Going Commando said:

 

Our IDL rotation is actually really thin now after cutting Io and losing Settle.  Davis would get a lot of snaps his rookie year.  But in addition to that depth, I would shop DaRon if we draft Davis.  Maybe even move him before the end of the draft, but certainly consider dealing him before the season.  I love DaRon, but Davis is more special than him.  I think DaRon tops out as a 10 AV season kind of guy, whereas I think Davis will be an All Pro.

 

Roullier is the kind of mediocrity that is just good enough to talk yourself out of picking the future great player in the moment, and in three years you can't believe you passed over Linderbaum because you thought you were set.  Roullier would not even for a moment cause me to hesitate on drafting Linderbaum if he's the BPA.  Roullier is coming off a big injury and he has an out in his contract after the '22 season where we only accrue 5 million dead cap from cutting him.  If he can't win a starting job on our line next season after picking Linderbaum, then my feeling is... oh well.  Worst case scenario with him is we've got a good backup C and then we take a 5 million dead cap hit the next year.

 

The bigger issue with Linderbaum is am I right that he will be the next Jason Kelce?  It seems like everyone is bizarrely down on this kid despite the fact his film is fantastic--easily the cleanest and most entertaining of any of the OLs this year.  I seem to be way higher on him than the consensus, and frankly, this situation feels like it did with Jonathan Taylor when I was a round higher on him than everyone else.  He is a no-doubter top ten player in this class and a very likely future All Pro.  I have a feeling people are going to look back on him in two years and think it should have been obvious that he belonged in the top ten.

 

That said, the consensus is undervaluing a premier player which creates an opportunity to add a ton of value to your draft.  We could trade back pretty far and probably still get him and end up with +15 value or more.

 

Roullier's PFF grade before injury was 83.7. That's not a "mediocrity". One of Linderbaum's issues is size. At 6'2 290 he's going to have a tough time against bigger DTs and NTs. And that makes him too small to move to Guard. Roullier also would probably not excel at Guard either due to size (not as small as Linderbaum, but 6'3 310 for a Guard is undersized).

 

IMO picking Linderbaum at 11 would be a huge reach and not a position of need, unless every other guy we had rated there is gone and we can't find a trade back partner. 11th overall would literally be the highest a Center has ever been drafted. There's no doubting his technical ability, but his size and wingspan is definitely a concern. Combine that with very low positional value and IMO that's a pass.

[Est.1974]

2 hours ago, KDawg said:

I don't think the draft is all that deep after the first round. A few potential gems... but I think after round 2 the gems are gone. 

Well I was specifically talking about WR so I probably agree after the 2nd round most the quality will have been purged.

[KDawg]

8 minutes ago, Est.1974 said:

Well I was specifically talking about WR so I probably agree after the 2nd round most the quality will have been purged.

I was, too.

30 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

Roullier's PFF grade before injury was 83.7. That's not a "mediocrity". One of Linderbaum's issues is size. At 6'2 290 he's going to have a tough time against bigger DTs and NTs. And that makes him too small to move to Guard. Roullier also would probably not excel at Guard either due to size (not as small as Linderbaum, but 6'3 310 for a Guard is undersized).

 

IMO picking Linderbaum at 11 would be a huge reach and not a position of need, unless every other guy we had rated there is gone and we can't find a trade back partner. 11th overall would literally be the highest a Center has ever been drafted. There's no doubting his technical ability, but his size and wingspan is definitely a concern. Combine that with very low positional value and IMO that's a pass.

Linderbaum would be a disaster of a selection, in my opinion.

[The Consigliere]

21 hours ago, clskinsfan said:

I like Hall a lot. But he would cost us our 2nd rounder. I think there will be more value at that pick in another position. S or LB most likely. 

His profile reads as one of the best RB's to come out since '18, I don't rate him that high as a college player, I definitely had Barkley, Guice, Chubb, Taylor, Swift, Dobbins ahead of him the past couple of years, but Breece definitely looks like a guy with a ceiling that's top 5 in the league. That being said, if our line and passing game are functional, we already have an elite RB in house, so yeah, he's worth a 2nd, for sure, but next years draft has plenty of RB talent already, and probably shouldnt waste the draft capital when we already have an elite back if injury prone, in house. 

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

https://www.nfl.com/news/peter-schrager-2022-nfl-mock-draft-1-0-seahawks-trade-for-qb

 

6 WR's in the 1st, all taken by Pick 23.

He has us going Hamilton.

[Skinsinparadise]

On Jamin, I agree

 

 

 

[The Consigliere]

23 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

More noise about Brisker

 

You're pretty checked in every year so I kinda wonder if you know the answer to this. 

 

How often are our draft selections actual guys we had visits with? 

 

The odds are they won't be, you only have so many picks etc, but I'm curious how much correlation there is between visits, and actual interest and actual selections. 

 

 

 

[Acworth skins fan]

I keep seeing 10AV, 8 AV, would someone please explain what the AV is. Thanks 

[KDawg]

@Est.1974 the reason he’d be a disaster of a pick is I don’t know that he even starts for us. Beyond that, I’m not sold on him being a top talent, let alone passing over Lloyd, Hamilton, London and Wilson for him.

 

Jordan Davis I can understand a touch. I wouldn’t do it but he is an elite talent with the size, speed and athleticism. I’m not sure Linderbaum’s size translates as well and I’m not sure his talent is in Roullier’s level.

[The Consigliere]

22 hours ago, Franklin60 said:

As a Notre Dame fan, I am shocked that anyone would consider drafting Jack Coan. I think he is even worse than Ian Book, who I thought was terrible and was surprised he was picked as high as he was. 

 

A guest was on the playerprofiler matt kelley podcast last month or the month before, I forget which, and when the topic, "Which QB going early will surprise you," the guest said Jack Coan is way, way, way, way higher on some teams boards than people would expect and it's because basically, a sizable collection of teams had their analytics crews break down the QB's with the most expensive models around apparently, and all of them came up with Jack Coan as the #1 guy. I'd have to dig around the podcast archive to figure out which episode it was, and when it aired and and at what point the topic came up. I make no argument whatsoever about the prospect, I'm just relaying what I heard which is that Jack Coan was basically the #1 rated QB prospect in the class according to certain analytics firms that were hired to break down certain metrics teams wanted to prioritize in the modeling. 

 

So that's why he's so high, and if we're high on him, we're almost certainly one of those teams. 

[KDawg]

2 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

 

A guest was on the playerprofiler matt kelley podcast last month or the month before, I forget which, and when the topic, "Which QB going early will surprise you," the guest said Jack Coan is way, way, way, way higher on some teams boards than people would expect and it's because basically, a sizable collection of teams had their analytics crews break down the QB's with the most expensive models around apparently, and all of them came up with Jack Coan as the #1 guy. I'd have to dig around the podcast archive to figure out which episode it was, and when it aired and and at what point the topic came up. I make no argument whatsoever about the prospect, I'm just relaying what I heard which is that Jack Coan was basically the #1 rated QB prospect in the class according to certain analytics firms that were hired to break down certain metrics teams wanted to prioritize in the modeling. 

 

So that's why he's so high, and if we're high on him, we're almost certainly one of those teams. 

Throw the model away. And burn it.

 

Reminds me of Atlanta Skins Fan and his mode where Greg McElroy was projected to be the GOAT

Edited April 7, 2022 by KDawg

[DWinzit]

1 minute ago, The Consigliere said:

 

A guest was on the playerprofiler matt kelley podcast last month or the month before, I forget which, and when the topic, "Which QB going early will surprise you," the guest said Jack Coan is way, way, way, way higher on some teams boards than people would expect and it's because basically, a sizable collection of teams had their analytics crews break down the QB's with the most expensive models around apparently, and all of them came up with Jack Coan as the #1 guy. I'd have to dig around the podcast archive to figure out which episode it was, and when it aired and and at what point the topic came up. I make no argument whatsoever about the prospect, I'm just relaying what I heard which is that Jack Coan was basically the #1 rated QB prospect in the class according to certain analytics firms that were hired to break down certain metrics teams wanted to prioritize in the modeling. 

 

So that's why he's so high, and if we're high on him, we're almost certainly one of those teams. 

Sounds like the Texans Davis Mills of 2022....This is the first of heard him really brought up outside of the 5th round or later

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

2 minutes ago, Acworth skins fan said:

I keep seeing 10AV, 8 AV, would someone please explain what the AV is. Thanks 

 

What it is:

It's a metric by PFR (Pro-Football Reference) to try and assess how much someone contributed to the teams overall performance.  If the team was awesome, then the AV's will be better.  If the team got the 1st draft pick, then the AV's will be worse.

 

AV's purpose:

Here's the key thing.  It's a flawed stat by design, because it's purpose is to try and compare players across eras.  So the only stats and metrics AV can use, are the ones that were all available in the 2000's, 1980's, 1960's, etc.  So things like pass deflections, snap counts, etc aren't factored in, because those stats weren't gathered way back when.

 

It's flawed, but it's the best anyone can think of to see how good someone was with the 2021 champion Los Angeles Rams compared to someone in the same position on the 1972 Miami Dolphins.

[Redskins 2021]

Friend of mine asked me today would you trade Terry for the packers or Chiefs two first round pick? 

 

I said probably not but would have to be considered?

Edited April 7, 2022 by Redskins 2021

[The Consigliere]

22 hours ago, clskinsfan said:

Yeah. That was a hell of a workout. He scares me though with his lack of production after year one. 

People forget that you need to drop a pro day time by .05, period. It's not reliable, and averaged out over time, the pro day times typically trail combine times by .05 seconds. So his 40 is a good solid forty, maybe (stop watches seemed all over the place, but in general, it sounds like he ran somewhere between a 4.42 and 4.52, which is a good time for a CB, but not insane by any stretch, it's just a nice solid 40 time for a CB trying to be picked in round 1 or 2). 

21 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Walker too.  i like it

 

 

 

I don't dislike Doubs but to me he's just solid, I want better, so I like that hes not one of the visits. 

 

 

 

A bit more skeptical on Walker, I don't like that his pass catching chops are largely blech. If we draft Walker, everyone everywhere will know what the play is before the ball is snapped depending upon whom is in the backfield. Need to do a better job of disguising that, and Breece Hall grabbed 82 balls in 3 years to Walkers 19. No comparison for me from that angle compared to others. Some guys can learn it, or just weren't used due to system (Fournette), other guys flat out don't seem to get it (Ronald Jones). 

[Chump Bailey]

9 minutes ago, Redskins 2021 said:

Friend of mine asked me today would you trade Terry for the packers or Chiefs two first round pick? 

 

I said probably not but would have to be considered?

 

Terry's the only player on this entire roster I would not even entertain the thought of trading personally. 

[Warhead36]

Two late 1s doesn't do it for me. On the other hand, Davante Adams only went for a 1 and a 2. 

[DWinzit]

3 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Two late 1s doesn't do it for me. On the other hand, Davante Adams only went for a 1 and a 2. 

KC's 29 and 30 isn't enough-even if the calculator says it does

GB at 22 and 28 would be pretty decent though I think...unless you absolutely want a top 15-20 pick.

 

[Skinsinparadise]

35 minutes ago, KDawg said:

Throw the model away. And burn it.

 

Reminds me of Atlanta Skins Fan and his mode where Greg McElroy was projected to be the GOAT

 

Yep I used to debate him quite a bit.  I also recall Atlanta Skins Fan didn't tink much of Cam Newton before the draft among other things. 

24 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

 

A bit more skeptical on Walker, I don't like that his pass catching chops are largely blech. If we draft Walker, everyone everywhere will know what the play is before the ball is snapped depending upon whom is in the backfield. Need to do a better job of disguising that, and Breece Hall grabbed 82 balls in 3 years to Walkers 19. No comparison for me from that angle compared to others. Some guys can learn it, or just weren't used due to system (Fournette), other guys flat out don't seem to get it (Ronald Jones). 

 

Listening to a recent Kiper/McShay podcast they said they he heard from Michigan State coaches that Walker had really good hands in practice but they just don't use their backs heavily as pass catchers in games. 

[Skinsinparadise]

59 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

 

You're pretty checked in every year so I kinda wonder if you know the answer to this. 

 

How often are our draft selections actual guys we had visits with? 

 

The odds are they won't be, you only have so many picks etc, but I'm curious how much correlation there is between visits, and actual interest and actual selections. 

 

 

 

 

From what I recall very hit and miss.  The pro days revealing more the positions they are into then per se specific players.  Same for other teams.

 

[Est.1974]

37 minutes ago, Redskins 2021 said:

Friend of mine asked me today would you trade Terry for the packers or Chiefs two first round pick? 

 

I said probably not but would have to be considered?

That depends if he’s willing to sign a long term deal really...and when and at what cost...

[The Consigliere]

56 minutes ago, KDawg said:

Throw the model away. And burn it.

 

Reminds me of Atlanta Skins Fan and his mode where Greg McElroy was projected to be the GOAT

Lol, okay, I know nothing about it, and make no judgment. I wasn't a fan of this QB class, and he wasn't someone I ever took any look at. 

 

For me I have guys I view as upside long shots, Willis and Corral, I have guys I thought would represent value (Ridder, and Howell, Ridder not so much anymore), if my UNR QB falls to late day 2 or day 3, I think Strong represents some value, but in general, I really hate this QB class, and view noone other than Willis as worth a 1st rounder, so I'd definitely pass on the class in general, and Coan is not on my radar at all before I heard that comment. 

 

But it's irrelevant to me anyway, I think we're gonna have Wentz, and then we'll draft a QB next year even if Wentz has a good year. I don't think we're using a top 100 draft pick on a QB in this class w/no 3rd rounder in our pocket and I think one day 2 pick missing as well). 

55 minutes ago, DWinzit said:

Sounds like the Texans Davis Mills of 2022....This is the first of heard him really brought up outside of the 5th round or later

I dont think his point was that teams would take him #1, his point was that was what their analytics models kept popping up: #1 at this, that, and the other, loads of different metrics, and what it seemed to suggest is that a guy people expected to be late day 3, would be a surprise day 2 pick, maybe even a late 2nd round selection. 

20 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Yep I used to debate him quite a bit.  I also recall Atlanta Skins Fan didn't tink much of Cam Newton before the draft among other things. 

 

Listening to a recent Kiper/McShay podcast they said they he heard from Michigan State coaches that Walker had really good hands in practice but they just don't use their backs heavily as pass catchers in games. 

Could be a Fournette type too then, but I also heard the metrics on what he did with the ball when he caught it were not great so there's that, but if he can catch and can handle pass pro, you can work on the details, the issue that tends to hurt you most is the stone hands+poor pass pro skill, if Walker's fine there, then he's a day 2 value to me, if he's not, than he's my pass list. 

Edited April 7, 2022 by The Consigliere