2022 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[Koolblue13]

I think Strong might be the only QB that I'm interested in and he'd have to go at 11.

[mistertim]

15 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

I don't even think getting a great and dynamic playmaking QB gets you into the playoffs. Lawrence and Fields are super dynamic playmakers but they're going nowhere without the rest of the organization being built up around them.  There is so much organization and infrastructure that goes in to building a highly competitive team that goes generally unacknowledged.  And in almost every instance where you have one of these freakishly physically gifted but raw QBs finding success, a huge part of that is the partnership they're able to form with their offensive coaches/HC.  And the FO people make a plan for how to build around them and do a great job obtaining all of the ingredients for success to make a good team.

 

It's also not lost on me that, despite the incredibly dynamic arm talent that Josh Allen and Pat Mahomes have, they're not the ones battling for a SB this year.  And last year, despite Mahomes's incredible talent, he got eaten up in the SB and they lost to a juggernaut team led by Tom Brady.

 

I don't think you need dynamic players at any specific position to have a better chance at winning a SB than everyone else.  I just think you need more good players than the other guys have period, and preferably many more good players than them.  Let's use AV as a way to quantify what a good player is, and say an AV of 7 is the cutoff for good starter/really really good rotation player.  I find that 6 AV roughly translates to a solid starter, 5 is an average one, and 7 is a legit good one.  The Bengals have 15 players who accumulated 7 AV or more this season, which is high.  The Chiefs had 13, the Bills had 16, the Packers had 13, the Cowboys had 15, the Titans had 11, the Bucs had 14, the Rams had 11, the 49ers had 15, the Patriots had 16, the Raiders had 11, and finally the Cardinals had 15.  That's the list of teams that won double digit games this year, and you see that the standard for them is to have at least 11 really good (or better) players on their roster.

 

Now let's look at the AV totals for some of the bad teams:

 

WFT = 8 players with > or = 7 AV

Giants = 8

Panthers = 7

Jags = 6

Lions = 6

Bears = 4

Texans = 2 😱

Jets = 0 😱😱

 

God almighty do the Texans and Jets have some teambuilding to do.  So those teams with six or fewer good players on them are going to be hopeless against teams with two and three times as many good players and lose 9 out of 10 hypothetical match ups with them.  The teams like us that are bad, but not that bad are also generally going to lose match ups against the more talented teams too, but availability is variable and contingency matters so we could win some of those games too.

 

Also this AV scale isn't iron-clad for measuring whether or not a players is legit good, because it does reward low quality high volume compiling, particularly at QB and LBer.  You'd have to parse each roster to figure out where that's happening, but it's the best free tool for getting a snap shot of total roster quality that I've found.

 

The point of all of this is that I don't necessarily need a 19 AV QB like Josh Allen in order to compete on an absolutely even footing with his team.  I can do it with a 12 or 13 AV QB, I just need as many or more good players as the Bills have.

 

Also wanted to say that Tom Brady definitely won't be the last of his kind.  Pocket passers who have great instincts and field vision and great leadership skills and are very accurate will always have a chance to be great QBs at every level of the sport.  That formula for excellence at the QB position is never going away, even as the trend is for young QBs becoming increasingly good runners. 

 

Well, Lawrence and Fields were rookies this season so I don't generally count them until we've seen a couple of years from them and have a better idea of what kind of NFL QBs they'll be.

 

But again, I'm not at all disputing that it takes a well built team to be a perennial contender and end up in the Super Bowl. It takes plenty of things, including a fair amount of luck and good bounces in close games.

 

But what I'm saying is that if you have that dynamic top tier QB (proven top tier QB...so not including potentially dynamic guys like Lawrence or Fields) it's going to make it that much easier to build a championship level team. That's why I said it gets your foot in the door. Will Mahomes or Allen or whatever other elite QB be in the SB every year? Of course not. But those kinds of QBs make it much more likely that you're in the hunt and in the mix pretty much every year.

 

And it's not like I'm just pulling this stuff out of my rear end as an opinion. Plenty of NFL head coaches and execs have openly acknowledged that nowadays having that top franchise QB is essential and the most important piece to being able to build a team that's a potential contender year in and year out.

 

I doubt you'd be able to find a single NFL coach who would disagree that their job of building a championship caliber team would be made immeasurably easier if they find a dynamic playmaking elite QB.

 

As far as Brady, I do think he's sort of the last of his kind for now. I don't mean guys who are more pocket passers than scramblers, I mean guys who are basically statues with little to no scrambling outside the pocket abilities. Brady can still do it because he's the best QB to ever play the game. I can't really think of any other top QBs nowadays who are in that Brady/Peyton/Brees mold. Defenses are just too fast and the advantages of having a QB who's also mobile are just too great to ignore.

[KDawg]

I think Detroit is still very capable of throwing a pretty major wrench into things and taking Willis at 2. They have Goff for now if Willis isn't ready to go. But they also can't get too much worse and they've already been oh-fer.

1 minute ago, mistertim said:

 

Well, Lawrence and Fields were rookies this season so I don't generally count them until we've seen a couple of years from them and have a better idea of what kind of NFL QBs they'll be.

 

But again, I'm not at all disputing that it takes a well built team to be a perennial contender and end up in the Super Bowl. It takes plenty of things, including a fair amount of luck and good bounces in close games.

 

But what I'm saying is that if you have that dynamic top tier QB (proven top tier QB...so not including potentially dynamic guys like Lawrence or Fields) it's going to make it that much easier to build a championship level team. That's why I said it gets your foot in the door. Will Mahomes or Allen or whatever other elite QB be in the SB every year? Of course not. But those kinds of QBs make it much more likely that you're in the hunt and in the mix pretty much every year.

 

And it's not like I'm just pulling this stuff out of my rear end as an opinion. Plenty of NFL head coaches and execs have openly acknowledged that nowadays having that top franchise QB is essential and the most important piece to being able to build a team that's a potential contender year in and year out.

 

I doubt you'd be able to find a single NFL coach who would disagree that their job of building a championship caliber team would be made immeasurably easier if they find a dynamic playmaking elite QB.

 

As far as Brady, I do think he's sort of the last of his kind for now. I don't mean guys who are more pocket passers than scramblers, I mean guys who are basically statues with little to no scrambling outside the pocket abilities. Brady can still do it because he's the best QB to ever play the game. I can't really think of any other top QBs nowadays who are in that Brady/Peyton/Brees mold. Defenses are just too fast and the advantages of having a QB who's also mobile are just too great to ignore.

I agree with you.

 

The team is what wins Super Bowls. The quarterback is what gives you a chance to win them. Without that QB a good team is wasted. QBs are a multiplier. A significant one.

 

Having an 80 overall roster with a 60 overall QB is not a positive. Having an 80 roster with a 90 QB is.

[method man]

This team should stay at #11 and I think they will. I wouldn't be mad at Willis, Strong, Corral or Howell being taken at that spot

Edited February 3, 2022 by method man

[wilco_holland]

23 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

I think Strong might be the only QB that I'm interested in and he'd have to go at 11.

 

You don't like coral reef as new commander? 

 

I feel the Willis hype will go of and be top 7 material. A second team will fall in love with an other and jump us, get the second QB at 10. We might be able to grab a prime D player (but again D???) or take the third QB. 

 

If 2 QBs go in top 10 you might even consider going best WR maybe. But I'm not in love with the options early. 

[mistertim]

26 minutes ago, KDawg said:

I think Detroit is still very capable of throwing a pretty major wrench into things and taking Willis at 2. They have Goff for now if Willis isn't ready to go. But they also can't get too much worse and they've already been oh-fer.

 

 

Yeah I've kind of wondered if Detroit is a possibility for QB. Though they have such a bad all around team that I'm wondering if there not being a clear consensus #1 blue chip QB prospect will put them off of drafting one at 2.

 

It feel like it's kind of a crappy draft to be in the top 2 if you really need a QB. Because there are some very good prospects but there isn't that one clear standout like there are in other QB classes.

 

Goff is a very mediocre QB but he's hardly the biggest problem on the team. I think if it were another draft where there are those clear consensus blue chip QB prospects then the Lions would definitely be likely to grab one at 2. This year I'm not so sure.

 

Maybe they'll be more likely to draft a stud at another position at 2 and then either pick a QB who falls with their other late 1st round pick or even move up from there into the middle of the 1st to pick one. To me that might make more sense, unless they truly are in love with one of these QBs.

[KDawg]

1 minute ago, mistertim said:

 

Yeah I've kind of wondered if Detroit is a possibility for QB. Though they have such a bad all around team that I'm wondering if there not being a clear consensus #1 blue chip QB prospect will put them off of drafting one at 2.

 

It feel like it's kind of a crappy draft to be in the top 2 if you really need a QB. Because there are some very good prospects but there isn't that one clear standout like there are in other QB classes.

 

Goff is a very mediocre QB but he's hardly the biggest problem on the team. I think if it were another draft where there are those clear consensus blue chip QB prospects then the Lions would definitely be likely to grab one at 2. This year I'm not so sure.

 

Maybe they'll be more likely to draft a stud at another position at 2 and then either pick a QB who falls with their other late 1st round pick or even move up from there into the middle of the 1st to pick one. To me that might make more sense, unless they truly are in love with one of these QBs.

Remember when we picked a pass rusher over a QB? I do. Didn’t work out so hot for us

[markmills67]

With the 11th selection of the 2022 NFL draft. 

The Washington Commanders select a different White Jersey to the utter ***** one that Snyder and Wright have decided on. 

[KDawg]

Howell and Zappe both looked excellent today. Howell had a tougher go in the red zone. He does need to process a touch faster but he is on a good track. 

[duffy]

1 hour ago, Koolblue13 said:

I think Strong might be the only QB that I'm interested in and he'd have to go at 11.

This is kind of where I'm at. I really like what I've seen from Strong and I'm not worried about his previous knee issues. I WANT to like Willis, but I feel like he's going to be a bit of a project albeit one that could absolutely return great value. 

 

I really wanted to get Strong with our 2nd or late in the first after a trade up, but I could certainly see him shoot up into the top 3 QBs.   

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, KDawg said:

I think Detroit is still very capable of throwing a pretty major wrench into things and taking Willis at 2. They have Goff for now if Willis isn't ready to go. But they also can't get too much worse and they've already been oh-fer.

I agree with you.

 

 

I used to think nope for a Qb that high but after the Senior Bowl, it wouldn't shock me if Willis went high like that.

 

 

 

10 minutes ago, KDawg said:

Howell and Zappe both looked excellent today. Howell had a tougher go in the red zone. He does need to process a touch faster but he is on a good track. 

 

I am watching on and off.  Looks like Howell lost some weight, he looks quicker then he did during the season.

[Koolblue13]

48 minutes ago, KDawg said:

Remember when we picked a pass rusher over a QB? I do. Didn’t work out so hot for us

Maybe if we just keep drafting linebackers in the first for a couple years it'll help. If not, then we go secondary, but we need to be patient and focus on linebacker for a few years.

[duffy]

2 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

Maybe if we just keep drafting linebackers in the first for a couple years it'll help. If not, then we go secondary, but we need to be patient and focus on linebacker for a few years.

 

The Lions went WR in 03, 04, 05, and 07. 

They got Megatron in 07. 

Obviously, the 4th time is the charm.

[mistertim]

53 minutes ago, KDawg said:

Remember when we picked a pass rusher over a QB? I do. Didn’t work out so hot for us

 

[KDawg]

I still see rawness in Willis but he is answering a lot of questions for me this week.

 

They just passed into nets with conditioning on the line. 10 yard straight ahead Zappe was most accurate, Howell hit 1 and barely missed another and the third one was very close. 
 

Willis wasn’t even close. He almost missed the net.

 

Then they put a bucket in the corner of the end zone. Zappe was the worst, Howell had all three hit very close, just out of the end zone in EXCELLENT spots but missed the bucket. 
 

Willis hit the bucket twice. 
 

Considering traits Willis is probably the best bet to turn into a high end franchise guy with a bit more risk. 

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, mistertim said:

 

And it's not like I'm just pulling this stuff out of my rear end as an opinion. Plenty of NFL head coaches and execs have openly acknowledged that nowadays having that top franchise QB is essential and the most important piece to being able to build a team that's a potential contender year in and year out.

 

I doubt you'd be able to find a single NFL coach who would disagree that their job of building a championship caliber team would be made immeasurably easier if they find a dynamic playmaking elite QB.

 

 

Agree. Also that franchise QB can make other players look good, too.  As coaches like to say a good offense helps a defense.  You build a lead its better for pass rushers among other things versus playing behind.  There are a number of ripples effects from having a top QB IMO.

 

Part of my issue with going with AV ratings is that is it has too much of the tide rises all ships type of effect as for grading players and punishes to some extent players who are good but play on a bad unit.   When you see FAs who come from a better team and often don't perform as well elsewhere -- part of that IMO is their abilities were arguably inflated because they were surrounded by players that made them look good.    You put Terry McLaurin with Aaron Rodgers something tells me he's AV rating would be higher than it would playing with Heinicke.

 

Like Josh Norman in Carolina, part of a good secondary, aided by a killer D line with an off the charts 15 AV rating his last season in Carolina.  And shocker it falls to a 5 with this team.  Is it because he is a third of the player he was in Carolina?  Nope IMO.  It's because he was part of a great defense in Carolina but in WFT he wasn't part of a great unit.  

 

 

[Koolblue13]

When I think about the Giants or Eagles drafting any of the QBs, I don't care at all. I'd actually prefer them do that instead of adding some of the defensive talent available.

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

[The Rook]

8 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

Nuke La'Loosh

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Rook

[Going Commando]

Yeah, he's got a God tier arm.  He's in the tier with Mahomes and Allen in terms of raw power.  And he runs like Michael Vick.  I really want to know his 40 time.  He looks like more of a short area quickness and agility guy, but I think he could run a 4.4 if he trains well.

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

 

 

[Redskins 2021]

3 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

 

 

Sounds like Willis has shot up the board and depending on medicals strong may have to. I do think Strong medical will drop him into second round for us

 

Edited February 3, 2022 by Redskins 2021

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

1 hour ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

Yeah, he's got a God tier arm.  He's in the tier with Mahomes and Allen in terms of raw power.  And he runs like Michael Vick.  I really want to know his 40 time.  He looks like more of a short area quickness and agility guy, but I think he could run a 4.4 if he trains well.

Malik Willis 40 Time

Malik Willis is incredibly fast. In his sophomore year at Auburn Univeristy back in 2018, it was reported that he ran a 4.37 40 yard dash. As he has matured and developed his body, there is reason to believe he may have even gotten faster. Since 2000 only two quarterbacks have ran a 40 yard dash that was sub 4.4: Robert Griffin III and Michael Vick. If Willis chooses to run at the Combine, look for him to join that group.

https://nfldraftlounge.com/2022-nfl-draft-scouting-report-liberty-qb-malik-willis/

[mhd24]

I think Willis's floor is 9 to Denver.  Denver (unless they trade for a vet), MUST get a QB in the off-season due to that division.  

[Coopskin44]

 No to Willis his accuracy and decision making is not very good.