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2022 Comprehensive Draft Thread

zCommander

By zCommander
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mistertim

mistertim

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7 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

Josh Allen's college career didn't come close to touching Willis's.  His production was crap and his film was awful and, unlike Willis, he never elevated his team and beat anyone decent. Willis beat multiple ranked teams with absolute scrubs lined up in front of him.  Church boy losers who got abused by mid major group of five talent.  Saying Allen was a way better passer than him coming out is based on nothing.

 

Willis also had absolute scrubs lined up on the other side of him usually. And when he didn't he was often inaccurate and had lots of turnovers. Willis definitely did beat the pants off of Allen when it came to multi-interception games though.

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Going Commando

Going Commando

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47 minutes ago, mistertim said:

Willis also had absolute scrubs lined up on the other side of him usually. And when he didn't he was often inaccurate and had lots of turnovers. Willis definitely did beat the pants off of Allen when it came to multi-interception games though.

 

Allen threw 15 picks in 2016.  Willis has three fewer career INTs than him and the same number of multiple interception games that Allen did.  And do you think he was playing against a murderer's row in the Mountain West? Take a look at his production from the three power 5 teams he played against in his college career:

 

427 yards, 50% completions, and 1 TD against 8 INTs.  15 rushing yards and 1 TD.  0-3 with a -95 point scoring differential.

 

On what are you basing the claim that he was a far better passer than Willis when he declared for the draft?

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mistertim

mistertim

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Posted (edited)
24 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

Allen threw 15 picks in 2016.  Willis has three fewer career INTs than him and the same number of multiple interception games that Allen did.  And do you think he was playing against a murderer's row in the Mountain West? Take a look at his production from the three power 5 teams he played against in his college career:

 

427 yards, 50% completions, and 1 TD against 8 INTs.  15 rushing yards and 1 TD.  0-3 with a -95 point scoring differential.

 

On what are you basing the claim that he was a far better passer than Willis when he declared for the draft?

 

I think Willis and Allen both had spotty accuracy in college (though Willis had 3 3 INT games this season and Allen didn't have any his last year). But for me one of the main thing is that Willis is pretty much a pure RO QB who is mostly in a one-read-and-run system, whereas Allen wasn't. Allen did scramble quite a bit, but most of that was because the protection and play broke down rather than it being a designed run.

 

I'm guessing that distinction between them isn't lost on NFL scouts and coaches. Clearly they saw the upside in Allen by picking him at 7. So far it sounds like Willis's Senior Bowl practice performance has been very up and down as well, and IMO unless he really ups his game there, there's very little chance he ends up a top 10 pick and I wouldn't be shocked if he fell to the 2nd round, especially with Strong reportedly killing it at the SB.

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Going Commando

Going Commando

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2 hours ago, Anselmheifer said:


In general I love your stuff,  but I just don’t think this is true. If it was irrelevant than he wouldn’t have to wear 2 sets of gloves to grip a college ball. Picket’s need for 2 gloves has already told you it’s an issue. 

 

I have small hands. I can grip a football and throw it pretty well/far, but my hand size definitely affects my ability to grip and control the ball, affects my throwing if I’m trying to generate a lot of deep velocity and probably affects my placement. I measured my hands last night and they are 8.75”. It’s not some imaginary thing that that affects your ability to grip/throw a football. 
 

We will see how he does at the senior bowl and maybe he’s mostly fine and there is enough other stuff there to make him successful. I’m not saying he can’t succeed because of hand size. But to say it doesn’t matter, at all, seems silly.

 

We talked about this issue a bit more in the QB thread, but that thumb tip to pinky tip span measurement the NFL takes doesn't actually measure any of what everyone infers that it does.  Not grip strength, and not the size or the control of the hand in the shape of a grip used in football.  You simply can not infer that thumb to pinky span correlates with grip strength at all.  Especially not in the context of gripping a football.  My right hand is 9 1/4" and my left hand is 9 3/4", I'm right-handed, and my grip strength in my left hand is pathetic compared to my right.

 

What's more, we can see that this measurement's use as a precedent is ruined by players with oddly shaped fingers like Pickett.  Deformed hands are not that uncommon in the sport either. @ConnSKINS26 made the point that if they can measure your hand to fit a bowling ball in a proper bowling ball grip, why the Hell can't they come up with a way to measure a player's hands in a football grip?

 

There is a problem with context and weighting in this measurement too.  It's the only one they take of a player's hands and that means they have one objective tool for evaluating a player's control of the ball. That means they are weighting it far too heavily in the process of that evaluation.  The hardest part of handling the ball is the complexity of taking snaps, running all of the fakes an NFL offense requires, and then finding the laces to throw.  You can't learn anything about a player's ability to do that from that measurement.  Nor can you learn about their ability to feel pressure or even grip the ball hard, both of which are far more relevant traits for preventing fumbles than measuring how much of the ball is covered up by the hand.

 

But the part of this whole debate that bothers me the most is the widespread misconception that the NFL ball is much bigger than the college ball.  The practical difference of the looser sizing standards of the CFB is that you're getting, at most, like a 3/4 inch longer circumference long way around with the NFL ball between the biggest regulation NFL ball and smallest regulation CFB ball.  For you and I who don't make a living handling the thing, we wouldn't be able to tell which is which if someone handed us an unmarked ball from both levels of the sport.  For an NFL player, they will only notice that the NFL ball tends to be marginally wider around the noses.  It's not something that's going to make a kid who is good enough to throw a football at an NFL level uncomfortable.

 

I'm no iconoclast, but the NFL is the king of taking noisy, irrelevant measurements and inferring traits from them that the drill/measurement doesn't prove at all.  This is just another one that's de facto purpose is to confuse evaluators who can't contextualize noisy, irrelevant measurements in their decision-making process.

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Going Commando

Going Commando

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7 minutes ago, Anselmheifer said:

Totally hear you McQueen. I just think that if his hand size was a total non issue, he’d wear no gloves or one glove. 
 

What are your thoughts about Strong?

 

Maybe he wears them because they make him feel more comfortable in his grip, but he'll still be able to wear gloves at the next level.

 

I liked what I saw of Strong.  He's a classic pocket passers with super natural looking footwork.  Not real rapid, but compact and it just looks easy for him--zero noise.  I mostly watched cut ups from his junior season so I didn't really see any issues with his knee or movement.  I got a Brady/Goff vibe from the way he moves in the pocket,  and felt like he was very calm compared to some of the noisier QBs like Pickett, who plays twitched up and nervy.  His arm strength is excellent but it's not an uber trait like it is for Willis, where the ball is coming out with such palpable power you can feel it from the couch.  I would say his absolute best trait is his accuracy, and that he is the most skilled and natural with his placement in the class.  Beautifully consistent and catchable ball on throws outside of the numbers, great sense of timing too.  There won't be any throws in his NFL offense that he can't make with good power and accuracy, and TBH, he could probably make all of them look easy.  The way he challenges single coverage on the outside with back shoulder throws is awesome.  I feel like he would really thrive with a contested catch stud like Terry playing on the outside.

 

It looked like he's a good field reader too.  Looks like he ran an air-raid offense with regular five man protection schemes and a widely spaced field that took advantage of his accuracy and comfort level throwing to any part of the field.  He's best at identifying single coverage and zone seams on the outside and taking advantage of those, but he also looks comfortable working the middle zones.  His OL looked really good to me, but if they did have any breakdowns then Strong was probably going down.  He's big and has strong legs but he's just so slow.  But his pocket work is so fluid and compact that he can also get the ball out very fast.

 

He and Pickett are the two most polished and accurate passers in the QB class, but the place where Pickett has him beat by a huge margin is mobility.  Pickett is pretty excellent throwing on the run and he's a surprisingly effective scrambler/design runner.  He's got a full range of playmaking tools whereas Strong is a statue who will do almost all of his work from the pocket.  If he's rolling out, he looks heavy-footed and awkward doing a little jump pass motion because there is no way he's getting his cleats back in the ground for those throws.  That running style actually reminded me of Haskins, but Haskins seemed to lose weight and get faster when he got to the NFL, and looked a little more comfortable throwing on roll outs.  He's a pocket workhorse passer, and you won't have to worry about building him a workhorse ground game so long as you can keep his pocket clean.  I like him for us because we've got a good OL but not very good weapons.  He absolutely needs to go to a team with a really good line that can hold up in five man protections, and he might be more dependent on ending up in a good situation than the other prospects, but every prospect requires this.  Tampa Bay kind of feels like his perfect fit and their pick at 27 could end up being his floor.  I was hoping he'd fall into the second round and be in play at or just before 42, but it sounds like he's a riser who has a good chance at the first, especially if he blows teams away on the whiteboard.  But him rising just means someone else will probably get pushed down instead, like Howell or Corral.  I do not think this QB class can bear five first rounders.  I'm thinking three is likely with four at the most, leaving two good prospects in play around 42.

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KDawg

KDawg

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Pickett with a fumble snap from bailing too early in the red zone, next play he throws a ball to 3 defensive players to end his red zone session. 

 

Ridders first snap he dropped back and Winfrey was in his lap. Rifled one out of bounds to save the sack. 

 

Winfrey TFL on inside zone. that's 2 in this period with a forced fumble and recovery.

 

Ridder one hops a RB swing pass.

 

Ridder with a tight window out pattern pass that was on the money. He missed a potential touchdown on the backside but good ball. 

Edited by KDawg
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KDawg

KDawg

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The weather is definitely an issue. Strong over threw everyone on a fade ball to the end zone. His receiver had a step, too. Then he weak armed a receiver screen which was caught for a nice gain. Then he went through his reads and hit a wide open receiver in the flat, no one near him... but the back dropped it.

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Going Commando

Going Commando

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I didn't watch the practice footage from yesterday, so here is Jordan Reid's write up on the QBs for ESPN: https://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2022/insider/story/_/id/33192234/senior-bowl-practice-2022-nfl-draft-best-quarterbacks-standouts-sleepers-nuggets-know

 

Quote

Best quarterbacks of the day

 

Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh (National)

Scouts Inc. ranking: 20

Pickett is known for his accuracy, precision and smarts, and he displayed each of those traits Tuesday. He routinely was the first player up in drills, setting the tone, and his accuracy shined throughout each portion of the day. Coming into the event, there was a lot of hoopla about his hand size as he opted to not have his hands measured at weigh-ins, but with a strong crosswind inside Han**** Whitney Stadium, the elements didn't affect him.

As usual, he wore a glove on each hand, and he was the most consistent of the National team quarterbacks from start to finish. Pickett is a contender for the QB1 spot, and he did everything he needed to do to strengthen those claims Tuesday.

 

 

Malik Willis, Liberty (American)

Scouts Inc. ranking: 21

Willis had a 2021 season filled with Jekyll and Hyde performances, but his traits will continue to intrigue. The ball jumps out of his hand with a different kind of velocity than his teammates displayed, and with the strongest arm of any QB in Mobile, he had plenty of "wow" moments throughout Day 1. Connecting on multiple deep passes during the early parts of practice, Willis displayed easy power behind his throws.

The area where he struggled was on out-breaking routes or ones moving away from him, as he sailed a couple of passes high. One was nearly intercepted by Nebraska cornerback Cam Taylor-Britt. The attributes Willis displays are superior to the rest of the class, but he must continue to improve his lower half to tighten up his accuracy on patterns outside of the numbers that are moving away from him.

 

How the other four quarterbacks fared

 

Desmond Ridder, Cincinnati (National)

Scouts Inc. ranking: 42

Steady would be the best word to describe Ridder's first practice. Ball placement was the biggest question mark for him coming into the pre-draft process, but he layered the ball nicely on many occasions. His best toss of the day came on a 15-yard dig route over the middle to tight end Trey McBride (Colorado State) that resulted in a big gain.

Ridder's experience with exhausting his progressions and going through multiple steps on reads showed during the 7-on-7 portion of practice. He comes from a system that prepared him for multistep reads and his polish in that area was on display.

 

Carson Strong, Nevada (National)

Scouts Inc. ranking: 54

Strong had an inconsistent day. He struggled with his ball placement in multiple drills and had trouble with placing the ball in the strike zone, which resulted in receivers being forced to make difficult attempts. Strong is known for his deep ball, and he had a nicely placed deep toss down the right sideline to teammate Romeo Doubs (Nevada) during one-on-ones.

The arm strength is evident with Strong -- and the ball comes out of his hand with much more velocity than his counterparts -- but honing in the speed and working on his touch and precision are areas that he'll need to show on Wednesday. Strong is a bit of a javelin thrower and the nose of the ball goes into the air, which resulted in several overthrows on his deep passes. I'm going to track his progress throughout the week to see if he improves on his flaws.

 

Sam Howell, UNC (American)

Scouts Inc. ranking: 34

Howell displayed the best deep accuracy and touch of any QB during the first day, with some beautiful deep throws that dropped right into the hands of the receivers who weren't forced to break stride. The enigma surrounding Howell is how well he can play outside of the Tar Heels' run-pass option, shotgun-laden offense. And from calling plays in the huddle to taking snaps under center, the first day was a challenge for him. Tracking his adjustments on the fly throughout the week will be something to monitor.

 

Bailey Zappe, Western Kentucky (American)

Scouts Inc. ranking: 153

Zappe attacked the short-to-intermediate areas with lots of confidence and success. His decisiveness and understanding of where to go with the football were on full display. His best throw of the day came on a deep pattern to Tennessee receiver Velus Jones Jr. along the sideline. A record-setting thrower last season, Zappe has proved he's a quick decision-maker and clean reader of the field when given time to operate. He needs to continue to be consistent throwing to the deeper portions of the field, as he isn't as big-armed as others competing, but his accuracy is his calling card.

 

He also goes on to talk about position players in the article too.  He said Jermaine Johnson DE FSU was the best player on the field and that he gave Darian Kinnard (quite a big dude) the business.  He also mentioned Perrion Winfrey DT OU and Devonte Wyatt DT UGA as looking strong.  I'm excited to see some cut ups for each of them now.

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KDawg

KDawg

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Interesting nugget from McShay.

 

Since 2000 only one guy has had any real success that had less than 9" hands and that was Mike Vick. 

 

He measured 8.5"

 

I think the idea that it doesn't matter at all is fantasy. But it's like every other measurement: How does it impact play?

 

Are there ball security issues? If so, it matters more. If not, it matters less.

 

Pickett fumbled a lot. I wish it was easier to see all of his fumbles to understand them contextually. I keep looking to see if I can find stuff on that but I can't. So I'm still not sure what his hand size means. He's a quality player for sure, and Burrow just proved you don't have to be the second coming of Shaq to be successful with 9" hands.

 

But like the 40, shuttle, bench and any other measurement it's a tool in evaluation to pair with film. Using it alone is an epic fail. 

Edited by KDawg
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Chump Bailey

Chump Bailey

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1 hour ago, KDawg said:

Zion Johnson (BC) at Center and Winfrey (Oklahoma) at DT are having some quality battles from what I see.

 

Ebikete (UConn) is doing well but he keeps using the same move over and over.

 

Love Ebiketie and Winfrey both. Edge is loaded. Likely a dozen very strong prospects and probably quite few more than that.

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