Looking back at Kyle Smith's drafts -Updated

[OVCChairman]

On 10/21/2020 at 1:03 PM, Riggo-toni said:

 

Redskins 2017 draft pick

Jonathan Allen. Pick: Round 1, 17th overall. 

Average value for pick. Decent starter, but not a game changer.

Ryan Anderson Pick: Round 2, 49th overall. This one for me was a head-scratcher straight from the get-go. Disappointing

Fabian Moreau Pick: Round 3, 81st overall. Looks like a solid pick.

•  4. Samaje Perine. Ugh. Bust.
• 5. Montae Nicholson. Had potential, but pea-sized brain. Bust
• 6. Jeremy Sprinkle. Not a world beater, but ok value for the 6th round
•  7. Chase Roullier. Excellent value pick
• 7 Robert Davis. Not all 7th rounders make a roster

 

2018

Round 1 DaRon Payne Good value - If it comes down to extending him or Allen, Payne gets my vote. Ioan man is still the best when healthy.

Round 2, No. 59 overall: Derrius Guice, RB, LSU. We were all excited about this pick, but super bust.

Round 3, No. 74 overall: Geron Christian, OT, Louisville. Meh...has been serviceable this year.

Round 4, No. 109 overall: Troy Apke, S, Penn State. Ugh. Can't seem to put it all together.

Round 6, No. 197 overall: Shaun Dion Hamilton, LB, Alabama. Decent value for 6th round.

Round 7, No. 241 overall: Greg Stroman, CB, Virginia Tech. About what you expect for 7th round.

 

 

 

 

You're missing Tim Settle in the 5th round of 2018... .which is about as much of an 'A' grade as you can want for a 5th round pick.  

On 10/21/2020 at 1:23 PM, Thinking Skins said:

 

 

DL - he has excelled here but they have been all first round picks. 

 

 

Tim Settle?  Smith-Williams has made the 53 man roster as a 7th round pick rookie. 

[gooseneck]

In the future we need to trade our 2nd rounder for a 3rd rounder

[nonniey]

1 hour ago, gooseneck said:

In the future we need to trade our 2nd rounder for a 3rd rounder

Our 2019 and 2020 2d rounders seem to have paid off and paid off well.

[philibusters]

8 hours ago, nonniey said:

Our 2019 and 2020 2d rounders seem to have paid off and paid off well.

 

When we traded our 2020 second rounder doubt we figured it would be the second pick of the second round.   We were probably thinking it would like middle part of the second round.  But yeah, Montez Sweat is solid so I am not upset about it.

[Riggo-toni]

13 hours ago, OVCChairman said:

You're missing Tim Settle in the 5th round of 2018... .which is about as much of an 'A' grade as you can want for a 5th round pick

Oops.  Thanks, corrected.

[Thinking Skins]

I stand by what I said earlier in this thread. I think people are getting excited about the number of players that have made the roster from the Kyle Smith drafts but few of these lower round picks are world beaters.

 

Its nice that guys like Settle and Moreland have shown to be good backups but I don't think they're starter material. They're nice stories but I don't want to get over hyped.

 

Same with Harmon and Sims. I like both guys as potential to be number 2 WRs but are they more than number 4 or 5 WRs right now? The talk in the FA thread is on bringing in a number 1 or 2, so are we both praising these guys and saying they're not enough?

 

The only LB we've drafted that has looked good (at LB) has been Cole Holcomb, and wasn't that a Jay pick? 

 

Our OL has looked bad. Earlier I said that's probably because of coaching philosophies between Gruden/Callahan and Turner but its not a good look right now. 

 

Otherwise we've seen him take risks on injured guys (Nicholson, Love) combine standouts (Apke) and raw guys (Christian) who haven't really panned out. This isn't to knock those philosophies overall but it hasn't been a Legion of Boom we've been drafting with these lower round picks. 

[PlayAction]

For some reason I thought Mcloughlan (spelling) had a hand in the 2017 draft but he was fired in March.  It's hard to tell from the outside (especially with this organization) who is responsible for the successful picks and for the busts.

[Gibbsisgod2006]

I remember reading that they based their draft on McLoughlan's draft board that he had put together. 

[Warhead36]

Nitpicking every single draft pick is exhausting and to be honest, a little absurd. You can do that for EVERY GM in the league and I guarantee you they all miss more than half the time. If you get 3 solid starters out of a draft you're well above average.

 

The fact is our drafting as a team has been a LOT better since Smith took over personnel duties. Nobody gets Pro Bowlers in every round.

[kingdaddy]

39 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Nitpicking every single draft pick is exhausting and to be honest, a little absurd. You can do that for EVERY GM in the league and I guarantee you they all miss more than half the time. If you get 3 solid starters out of a draft you're well above average.

 

The fact is our drafting as a team has been a LOT better since Smith took over personnel duties. Nobody gets Pro Bowlers in every round.

Yep, and who knows who Smith wanted over the bonehead Haskins pick that Danny made? That pick changes things big time in my opinion.

[skinny21]

I’m thinking we can make an initial judgement for the 2020 draft...

 

1st:  Young - excellent pick (though pretty much a no-brainer)

3rd:  Gibson - very good pick 

4th:  Charles - unknown, earned a backup role

4th:  Gandy-Golden - unknown, earned snaps, but showed nothing

5th:  Ismael - unknown, made roster

5th:  Hudson - unknown, but athletic and earned snaps (believe coaches said he would have had a bigger role if not for Curl)

7th:  Curl - diamond in the rough, excellent pick

7th:  Smith-Williams - relatively unknown, but earned snaps and made some plays

 

From my perspective, 3 picks to be very happy with, 2 to be intrigued by (Charles and Hudson), and 2 “eh, didn’t see much, but at least they took some snaps” (AGG and JSW).  Of course for Ismael, he had a good (and durable) player in front of him, at a position that doesn’t rotate, so who knows.  
 

I’d say coming away with 3 bonafide starters and a bunch of depth makes this a good draft.  Of course I have no idea how much credit goes to Kyle...

 

Revisiting the 2019 draft, finding 5 starters* (2 of them high end) is impressive.   On the flip side, you could make the argument that 3 of them (Holcomb - though I think he’s progressing nicely, Moreland, Harmon) wouldn’t start for most teams, so...

I’m really curious to see if Love makes the cut this year and what he can bring to the table if he does - he was certainly exciting to watch at Stanford.  

 

*I count Harmon as a starter because I think he probably would have earned the #2 spot again this year if healthy.

[50yrSKINSfan]

On 10/21/2020 at 10:55 PM, philibusters said:

 

I somewhat discount injuries and off the field issues unless they were apparent.  Guice did have an injury but I don't think he had a track record of off the field issues.   To me Guice wasn't necessarily a bad value for the second round just because he didn't work because he may have been good enough to justify the second round pick.  Obviously it didn't work out.  I gave that pick a B based on good I think Guice was, not the fact that it didn't work.  Every so often a good pick won't work out.

Wondering when I saw Antonio Brown play, why Guise can't get a second chance? 

[Going Commando]

On 1/19/2021 at 5:44 PM, Warhead36 said:

Nitpicking every single draft pick is exhausting and to be honest, a little absurd. You can do that for EVERY GM in the league and I guarantee you they all miss more than half the time. If you get 3 solid starters out of a draft you're well above average.

 

The fact is our drafting as a team has been a LOT better since Smith took over personnel duties. Nobody gets Pro Bowlers in every round.

 

If you're building a team from scratch, three good starters per draft means you'll take like five or six years to build a decent roster.  That's too long.  If you really want to build a super bowl contender, then you've got to knock it out of the park in like two or three consecutive years where you just crush the offseasons.   Draft classes where you get like five good players and good free agency decisions.  Offseasons where you miss very few opportunities.

 

Our past three years of team building just haven't been good enough.  Way too many opportunities missed.  But hopefully they did enough good to create a decent foundation for the next few offseasons and we can crush those and rapidly improve.  I don't expect it, but I hope for it.  TBH I don't really believe that Smith or Rivera and his staff or the new front office hires are elite level execs and coaches. I'm hoping they get lucky.

[Thinking Skins]

1 hour ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

If you're building a team from scratch, three good starters per draft means you'll take like five or six years to build a decent roster.  That's too long.  If you really want to build a super bowl contender, then you've got to knock it out of the park in like two or three consecutive years where you just crush the offseasons.   Draft classes where you get like five good players and good free agency decisions.  Offseasons where you miss very few opportunities.

 

Our past three years of team building just haven't been good enough.  Way too many opportunities missed.  But hopefully they did enough good to create a decent foundation for the next few offseasons and we can crush those and rapidly improve.  I don't expect it, but I hope for it.  TBH I don't really believe that Smith or Rivera and his staff or the new front office hires are elite level execs and coaches. I'm hoping they get lucky.

I partially agree. I am not a big fan of free agency but I love the way Ron used it in 2020. We can look at recent expansion teams (Browns vs Panthers and Jaguars) and see that its extremely difficult to build a team through the draft (and I'm not sure about Buccs and other expansion teams but I'd imagine this is a reason that these teams have been bad for a while). The Panthers and Jaguars were also given ability to pluck players off rosters that gave them a really competieive roster their first few years in the league. 

 

Free Agency is a dangerous weapon though because too many teams run the risk of going after the golden goose and overpaying for it instead of building the roster players 23-53. It is extremely difficuly to draft well year in and year out. Even the most highly touted prospects have problems (look at Luck, RG3, Burrow, Tua). Others surprise (look at Brady), Others take time (look at Cousins). This is why I have no problem with Kyle's picks right now because they could become all pros. As of right now, guys like Gibson, AGG, Charles, Ismael, Hudson, Curl and JSW all have potential to make this a superstar class. They're all on the roster and 3 of these guys have shown to be the real thing in one year of production. 

 

But I think what a real roter needs is competition at just about every spot. Cam Sims is a decent WR but he shouldn't be a lock at number 2 or a lock to make the roster. We could bring in a Robinson, but he'd probably want a whole lot. Why not bring in other WRs to compete with Sims and Harmon to see if one can take over the number 2 spot? Its kinda what we did at SS when Collins went down. We could have brought in Reid but instead we let Curl step up. We let Everett and Reaves step up and our team is younger and better for it. I'm not against going for Robinson but we can't sign FAs everywhere and if we wind up getting Watson, then it makes the Robinson deal almost impossible, or if we get them both we have to wind up going cheap somewhere.

 

The real question becomes who is outplaying their contract? As long as we've got a number of players outplaying their contracts, we have the opportunity to build a solid roster. You Can't have a lot of players outplaying their contracts unless you draft well in the later rounds (and those guys get a lot of playing time) or you do well in UDFA and the second tier of FA guys (guys who are on the prove-it deals). If we can have another FA class like we had last year of guys who were backups or not getting enough playing time with their original teams but we give them opportunities and they roll with it, then we can really solidify our roster. 

[Warhead36]

3 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

If you're building a team from scratch, three good starters per draft means you'll take like five or six years to build a decent roster.  That's too long.  If you really want to build a super bowl contender, then you've got to knock it out of the park in like two or three consecutive years where you just crush the offseasons.   Draft classes where you get like five good players and good free agency decisions.  Offseasons where you miss very few opportunities.

 

Our past three years of team building just haven't been good enough.  Way too many opportunities missed.  But hopefully they did enough good to create a decent foundation for the next few offseasons and we can crush those and rapidly improve.  I don't expect it, but I hope for it.  TBH I don't really believe that Smith or Rivera and his staff or the new front office hires are elite level execs and coaches. I'm hoping they get lucky.

I don't disagree. If you want to be a contender you need to have that one killer draft class(i.e. Seattle in 2012)and then supplement it with some FA picks to take you over the top.

 

I think the big issue we've had is that we don't draft enough difference makers. We've done a good job getting the solid B type players but we don't get enough As. Obviously Young looks like a real difference maker, but he was #2 overall. We need to find difference makers in the lower rounds. I think we're trending in that direction with guys like McLaurin and Gibson.

[Riggo-toni]

I think Sweat is well on his way to being a difference maker. Not quite yet, but I seem him having Dwight Freeney potential.

And McLaurin is a difference maker.

[Chump Bailey]

16 hours ago, Riggo-toni said:

I think Sweat is well on his way to being a difference maker. Not quite yet, but I seem him having Dwight Freeney potential.

And McLaurin is a difference maker.

 

Scary Terry was a steal in the 3rd. We have to hit on QB though obviously. I'd rather do that via the draft for other obvious reasons. It's early but I'm partial to Trey Lance. Question marks sure but if he's willing to put in the work and not be a drama queen he could be great for us. I'd love to get Corey Davis here too but that's unlikely. 

[Warhead36]

On 1/21/2021 at 8:56 AM, 50yrSKINSfan said:

Wondering when I saw Antonio Brown play, why Guise can't get a second chance? 

Because Brown is a proven multi time All Pro? Guise didn't do jack but get injured.

 

This is a performance based business.

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

On 1/19/2021 at 6:24 PM, kingdaddy said:

Yep, and who knows who Smith wanted over the bonehead Haskins pick that Danny made? That pick changes things big time in my opinion.

 

Montez Sweat.  It's why we traded back into the 1st for him.  That said, I've read the draft room was pretty unanimous on wanting Sweat instead.  So that doesn't tell us much.

[Thinking Skins]

When I get the time I'd like to go through these picks and try to determine who was actually a Kyle Smith pick. I don't know much about the 2020 draft and which coahces liked which players, but 

2019, we know Gruden liked Holcomb (only other notable late round contributions are Moreland unless you count TMC as a late round)

2018, we know that Gruden liked Quinn. I think Smith liked SDH, but I just have quotes of him speaking positively on him. I'm guessing he picked Settle as well. What about Christian and Apke? 

2017, (Wasn't this Scot M's board). The only player I really care about is Roullier because the rest of the late round players haven't really done anything. Maybe I want to know why we picked Samaje and Sprinkle but not really. 

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

4 hours ago, Thinking Skins said:

When I get the time I'd like to go through these picks and try to determine who was actually a Kyle Smith pick. I don't know much about the 2020 draft and which coahces liked which players, but 

2019, we know Gruden liked Holcomb (only other notable late round contributions are Moreland unless you count TMC as a late round)

2018, we know that Gruden liked Quinn. I think Smith liked SDH, but I just have quotes of him speaking positively on him. I'm guessing he picked Settle as well. What about Christian and Apke? 

2017, (Wasn't this Scot M's board). The only player I really care about is Roullier because the rest of the late round players haven't really done anything. Maybe I want to know why we picked Samaje and Sprinkle but not really. 

 

We know Gruden wanted Quinn in the 4th, but was talked down in the war room.  I think we can give some credit to Smith for delaying on that pick.

 

2017, it's unclear.  I know Scot M wants to take credit.  Some of the picks don't seem like more recent picks.  Hard nosed football players who love football...but lack NFL caliber physical traits.  Like Perine (absolutely no burst or wiggle) and Anderson (extremely undersized with T-Rex arms and unathletic).

 

2019, SDH seems more like a Bruce Allen influence.  We had an obsession with Alabama for awhile.  Overdrafted a lot of guys just because they went there.  Ross Piesrchbacher isn't NFL caliber, but we took him in the 5th.

 

For some reason I want to say Wes Martin was a Kyle Smith pick?  He wasn't invited to the combine, and I'd doubt he'd be on the radar of Bruce Allen.

[50yrSKINSfan]

8 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

Because Brown is a proven multi time All Pro? Guise didn't do jack but get injured.

 

This is a performance based business.

I guess there are different penalties for stars and the rest of us.

[Voice_of_Reason]

On 1/19/2021 at 11:51 AM, Thinking Skins said:

Our OL has looked bad. Earlier I said that's probably because of coaching philosophies between Gruden/Callahan and Turner but its not a good look right now. 

I disagree with this, though im

not sure how much is on Kyle’s drafts.

 

Scherff is very good, Moses really had a good year and Rouiller is good and was just extended.

 

The left side is a bit of an issuer, but the guy they picked for LT was hurt all year, so we have to see how that plays out.  
 

I think the OL player pretty well this year actually.

[skinny21]

1 hour ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

I disagree with this, though im

not sure how much is on Kyle’s drafts.

 

Scherff is very good, Moses really had a good year and Rouiller is good and was just extended.

 

The left side is a bit of an issuer, but the guy they picked for LT was hurt all year, so we have to see how that plays out.  
 

I think the OL player pretty well this year actually.

Generally agree here - they played better than expected and there were bright spots for sure.  I got the sense Lucas and Moses were better in pass pro than the run game.  On the other hand, we had a few games (can’t recall how many offhand) we really struggled to run the ball (though we got away from the run and spotted a number of teams sizeable leads, so....  As nitpicky as it may be, we also were atrocious at rb screens.

 

If we keep Scherff, I think the line will be pretty solid.  Charles offers competition/depth for the LG and LT spots (perhaps competing for the starting RG position f Scherff walks), and if he is able to earn a starting spot or proves a capable backup, that’s pretty good value for a 4th rounder.  We could maybe use another option at LT.  No idea about Ismael of course, but I don’t mind him serving as the backup C depending on camp performance this year.  Assuming Christian is around next year (or is he a FA?), we’ll have 3 draftees competing for starting gigs or backup roles... we’ll see how it goes.

[Thinking Skins]

13 hours ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

I disagree with this, though im

not sure how much is on Kyle’s drafts.

 

Scherff is very good, Moses really had a good year and Rouiller is good and was just extended.

 

The left side is a bit of an issuer, but the guy they picked for LT was hurt all year, so we have to see how that plays out.  
 

I think the OL player pretty well this year actually.

I don't think I'm the clearest writer, which is why my posts are generally so long. 

 

But it's a question of Kyle Smith's picks on our OL. Scherff was a Scot pick and Moses was a Bruce pick, using Scot's services. So the only draft pick we have that's performed well on the OL from Kyle is Roullier and I do question how much impact he had on the pick. 

 

That said, Wes Martin did look better in Callihan's system which is more focused on run blocking so it could be a style of linemen problem. I just remember not being able to draft or find offensive linemen for most of the 2000-2010s. Jansen retired or left and suddenly RT was a gaping hole. I know different coaches use different blocking styles and different player types but few of Kyle's draft picks on the OL have looked good or are even playing significant snaps elsewhere.