2021 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[mistertim]

16 minutes ago, KDawg said:

I like Lance and Fields, to be clear. Both have the legs to bail them out if they need time to develop. What I have to decide is how much I like them and where I’d take them and who I’d take them over. 

 

Yeah I probably should have qualified my statement with where I would be comfortable taking them. At this point I don't think I'd be comfortable taking either with a top 5 or probably even a top 10 pick. IMO there are just too many question marks about guys who only have one year of college production and history doesn't treat them especially well in the NFL. That's especially true for a dual threat guy like Lance who's incredibly gifted but who's pure passing and mechanics are "meh" at the moment (just from what I've seen of him).

 

I'd probably be ok with taking them in the mid 1st (especially if we were higher and were able to trade back a bit), but since QBs are positionally valued so high, it's quite possible that neither will be there. 

 

It's just going to be a ****ty draft for picking QBs outside of Lawrence because IMO that position more than any other is one where it's important to have as much of a sample size as possible.

[Riggo#44]

11 minutes ago, method man said:

Please go for the veteran and hit on this pick with a day 1 starter at another spot

 

Like who? Other than Prescott, who will command a HUGE contract, who is available?

 

I'd be perfectly content with Trey Lance sitting behind Allen or Smith for a year.

[method man]

15 minutes ago, Riggo#44 said:

 

Like who? Other than Prescott, who will command a HUGE contract, who is available?

 

I'd be perfectly content with Trey Lance sitting behind Allen or Smith for a year.

 

You'll be able to make a play for Stafford and, perhaps, Ryan as well. Detroit will have a new staff and they are headed for a top 5 pick. There were rumors they were shopping Stafford during this year's draft and a new staff may want to rebuild with a younger QB. If Atlanta finishes with a top 3 pick, they may move on from Matt Ryan as well

 

[Riggo#44]

11 minutes ago, method man said:

 

You'll be able to make a play for Stafford and, perhaps, Ryan as well. Detroit will have a new staff and they are headed for a top 5 pick. There were rumors they were shopping Stafford during this year's draft and a new staff may want to rebuild with a younger QB. If Atlanta finishes with a top 3 pick, they may move on from Matt Ryan as well

 

 

Falcons really cannot move on from Ryan--he carries over a $9m cap hit, and they're currently $24m over.

Stafford would be meh--ONLY if the Lions cut him-I just don't see that necessarily happening. I'm not giving more resources for a past-their-prime QB. And even then, I'd want a long-term solution. I don't want to continue the merry-go-round.

[KDawg]

Stafford, Newton, Jameis (did a year in NO help him?) among others would need to be on the radar. 
 

The team has to address QB and again, I think it matters where we are slotted to draft.

[KDawg]

Little more detail...

 

If we’re picking 1, the pick almost has to be Lawrence.

 

If we’re picking 2-4 and Sewell there, I think it has to be him. 
 

Things get murky after Lawrence/Sewell are off the board. 
 

I wouldn’t count out a trade back and getting Wyatt Davis, Deonte Brown, Trey Smith types. I’m high on Alijah Vera-Tucker. These guard types are going to be integral to improvement.

 

But assuming we stand pat... 

 

After Sewell and Lawrence it comes down to Chase, Waddle, Parsons, Surtain, Fields, Lance, Pitts, Holland, Cisco, Leatherwood, Moore, etc. 

 

I don’t think I’d go corner or safety that high. 
 

I think ultimately it would be between Chase, Waddle, Moore, Parsons, Lance and Fields. And that’s where the whole “did we snag a QB in the free agency period” conversation begins. 
 

If we did, I think we still look QB but much later. And at that point I think we go Chase/Waddle/Moore. 
 

Pitts is a consideration, too, but I really want us to go after Ertz. Not that I’d turn down having both... having both of them gives a lot of flexibility to the offense. 
 

But it’s gotta be a pass catcher type that can take the top off of a D I think in that situation.

 

Of course, all of this is going to change as the season plays out. 
 

I think LB/G and a rookie QB are all going to be addressed in this draft. I’d assume TE too. But again, this is assuming BPA with weights is these positions come draft time.

[Anselmheifer]

12 minutes ago, KDawg said:

 

I think ultimately it would be between Chase, Waddle, Moore, Parsons, Lance and Fields. 
 

 

I agree with this list. I also would add Pitts, who you referenced as a secondary option for this list. If we are picking top 8, I just want someone with All Pro potential. I think that Pitts fits that description as well as anyone else on that list. And I take Rondale Moore over Waddle at this juncture. Moore was an instant impact player as soon as he stepped onto campus. I think he has a solid chance to be a Tyreek Hill type player and he would be an awesome fit in this offense. 

But, I think the WR's likely to be available in the 2nd this year are going to be better than the TE's. Pitts is going in the 1st and I bet Freiermuth does too. I think Amon-Ra St Brown, Rashod Bateman or Devonta Smith could be there at the top of the 2nd and I'd rather have Pitts and one of them than Waddle/Moore/Chase and Brevin Jordan. 

[Anselmheifer]

 

 

https://www.pff.com/news/draft-2021-nfl-draft-preseason-wide-receiver-rankings-jamarr-chase

"8. CHRIS OLAVE, OHIO STATE

Olave is pretty much the exact opposite type of receiver to Atwell. He’s far from a physical freak and is not the guy you want to pump screens to — he has broken three tackles on 61 catches for his career. What he is, is arguably the best route-runner in college football. Olave stems his routes as well as anyone in college football, never giving away his intentions before his breaks. The only reason he didn’t end up with more yards is that so many of his catches end up in the end zone. Twelve of his 49 catches last season resulted in scores. Olave also did almost all of his work from the outside, as he took only 50 snaps in the slot all season.

 

2020 Outlook

 

No one receiver in Ohio State's offense is ever going to be featured enough to put up jaw-dropping numbers. Replicating the type of production we saw from Olave last season would be just fine from a draft stock perspective. Some added muscle to his frame and a little more production after the catch would help, as well. I’m not sure he’s the type of athlete that traditionally goes high at the position, but he could be one of the steals of this loaded class."

 

This sounds like it could be a solid fit. Great route running and plays mostly on the outside. Could be had a little later, maybe. Is he a 3rd round pick? Also, Justyn Ross could wind up being a steal for some team if he makes it to the 5th or 6th rounds and recovers from his surgery. 

[philibusters]

i love Rondale Moore.

 

I am a huge Maryland Terrapin fan and over the last 12 or so years we have produced maybe 6 or 7 receivers who made a roster and 4 receivers who have been multiple year starters in Stefon Diggs, Torrey Smith, DJ Moore, and Darius Heyward Bey.  I like Moore more than any of them.  In terms of style he reminds me the most of Stefon Diggs in that he has elite acceleration and quickness.

 

As a Maryland fan I also see Chris Olave every year (Ohio State is in the same division) along with Rashod Bateman (Minnesota is in the other half of the Big 10, but they are Maryland's cross divisional rival taht we play every year).   Ohio State dominates Maryland so throughly every year (most years at least, Maryland took Ohio State to overtime in 2018 and also was tied with them 28-28 early in the fourth quarter in 2015 though Maryland ended up losing that game 49-28) and Ohio State has so many weapons its hard to say one guy stands out, however, I would say, I remember him getting the most receptions for Ohio St. last year.  Bateman is also very good, but I like Rondale Moore significantly more than either of them.

[mistertim]

21 hours ago, Riggo#44 said:

 

Falcons really cannot move on from Ryan--he carries over a $9m cap hit, and they're currently $24m over.

Stafford would be meh--ONLY if the Lions cut him-I just don't see that necessarily happening. I'm not giving more resources for a past-their-prime QB. And even then, I'd want a long-term solution. I don't want to continue the merry-go-round.

 

Meh on Ryan. He'll be 36 next season and I cannot possibly see them cutting him...he'd count for almost $50 million in dead cap if they cut him for 2021.

 

Stafford I'd be less "meh" about as he'll be a few years younger than Ryan. That being said, if the Lions cut him after this season they'll also have $25 million in dead cap...though that's obviously not as bad as Ryan. I suppose I'd be ok with giving up a mid rounder for him but nothing more than that. 

 

Winston...meh. Younger but has always been mediocre and a turnover machine. 

 

Newton? Super meh. If Rivera really wanted him he could easily have pulled the trigger this offseason; he didn't. The guy is a mediocre passer and a headache.

 

 

I guess if I had to pick out of those, I'd go with Stafford. 

[method man]

I'm not loving Fields or Lance thus far, especially at the spots they are expected to get selected at. Can someone give a rundown of Jamie Newman? I know he was supposed to start this year but pulled out because there was a chance he'd lose the battle for the starting job at Georgia. He did light it up at Wake Forest in 2019

[Riggo#44]

I loved what I saw of Lance's athleticism and competitiveness, and he got much better as his one game went on. The 1 year of starting is concerning--but Kyler Murray had about the same. Fields worries me too--and it's a total guilty-by-association thing with Haskins. I will watch more of him coming up to see if it holds.

[mistertim]

52 minutes ago, Riggo#44 said:

I loved what I saw of Lance's athleticism and competitiveness, and he got much better as his one game went on. The 1 year of starting is concerning--but Kyler Murray had about the same. Fields worries me too--and it's a total guilty-by-association thing with Haskins. I will watch more of him coming up to see if it holds.

 

I just don't know how I feel about Lance overall. I really like watching him play, as he's super fun to watch but there are concerns.

 

Negatives:

 

Complete 1 year wonder

Dual threat guy who IMO takes way too much contact at times when he runs

Racked up stats against inferior competition

Wasn't asked to pass a whole lot. Had 15 or less pass attempts in half of his games in 2019

So-so mechanics with a sometimes long-ish delivery (though not too bad)

 

 

Positives:

 

Good arm, though not elite

Accurate throwing on the run

Nice accuracy/touch on deep balls

Even though his overall mechanics can be spotty, he has pretty nimble feet

Dual threat is all the rage and he's pretty good at it, but not as shifty or fast as Lamar Jackson

 

He looks to me like his ceiling is a poor man's Lamar Jackson (doesn't have the arm strength, shiftyness, or pure speed of Jackson). IMO in the NFL he's either going to need to go to a team willing to go all-in on his style and strengths like the Ravens did with Jackson, or he's going to need to go to a team with plenty of patience to mold him into a more traditional NFL passer.

 

I wouldn't take him with a top 10 pick.

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

[Riggo#44]

1 hour ago, mistertim said:

I wouldn't take him with a top 10 pick.

I'm on the fence too, but...our current coach did mold his offense around a similar raw-passing, incredible athlete...he did pretty well.

 

Kyle Trask is intriguing too. Arm is questionable, but while not a runner, moved well in the pocket, accurate.

[KDawg]

25 minutes ago, Riggo#44 said:

I'm on the fence too, but...our current coach did mold his offense around a similar raw-passing, incredible athlete...he did pretty well.

 

Kyle Trask is intriguing too. Arm is questionable, but while not a runner, moved well in the pocket, accurate.

I think, unless we’re a top 3 pick (and even then anything below 1) we’re going to go after a FA QB. I’m curious if there are any mid round flyer type QBs that have some upside to them. Haven’t deep dove yet into the QBs. Gut says no. 

[Riggo#44]

5 minutes ago, KDawg said:

I think, unless we’re a top 3 pick (and even then anything below 1) we’re going to go after a FA QB. I’m curious if there are any mid round flyer type QBs that have some upside to them. Haven’t deep dove yet into the QBs. Gut says no. 

 

FA QBs are less than impressive. Other than Prescott, who I don't think we'll sign, it's the likes of Winston, Brissett, Flacco, Newton, Rivers, Taylor. We'll see I guess...I not sold on any one player and going for a QB because we NEED one is a terrible approach...We'll see. Haskins bombing this badly is worst-case right now...

[KDawg]

Just now, Riggo#44 said:

 

FA QBs are less than impressive. Other than Prescott, who I don't think we'll sign, it's the likes of Winston, Brissett, Flacco, Newton, Rivers, Taylor. We'll see I guess...I not sold on any one player and going for a QB because we NEED one is a terrible approach...We'll see. Haskins bombing this badly is worst-case right now...

Smith IS under contract next year.

[Riggo#44]

1 minute ago, KDawg said:

Smith IS under contract next year.

 

I was thinking that--even Kyle Allen as a placeholder. IF we take someone like Lance--he sits. None of this forcing him to play bull****. I am perfectly fine with a mediocre QB so long as we had some long-term solution in place.

[mistertim]

16 minutes ago, KDawg said:

I think, unless we’re a top 3 pick (and even then anything below 1) we’re going to go after a FA QB. I’m curious if there are any mid round flyer type QBs that have some upside to them. Haven’t deep dove yet into the QBs. Gut says no. 

 

I'm really curious as to whether Lawrence will be the only QB to go in the top 10.

 

Usually I'd say no way, but with the COVID situation the guys who could be the other top QB picks (Fields and Lance) are both going to be one year wonders with major questions marks about their games. I think Fields less so, because he's a more polished passer who has played well against top competition...but I also have to think that the Haskins situation could potentially affect how wary teams are about him...fair or not.

 

Outside of Lawrence, I think this is just going to be a super ****ty draft for QBs unfortunately. Not that there won't be some good ones to come out of it, but just that all of them except Lawrence will be major question marks. I'm not usually big on FA QBs and trades but in this instance if we have a top pick I'd much rather have a FA QB (or trade...maybe Stafford for 3rd?) + Sewell/Chase/Parsons than taking a gamble on Fields or Lance. Obviously if we somehow ended up with #1 overall it's Lawrence, but I'm assuming that's not gonna happen.

[mhd24]

9 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

I'm really curious as to whether Lawrence will be the only QB to go in the top 10.

 

Usually I'd say no way, but with the COVID situation the guys who could be the other top QB picks (Fields and Lance) are both going to be one year wonders with major questions marks about their games. I think Fields less so, because he's a more polished passer who has played well against top competition...but I also have to think that the Haskins situation could potentially affect how wary teams are about him...fair or not.

 

Outside of Lawrence, I think this is just going to be a super ****ty draft for QBs unfortunately. Not that there won't be some good ones to come out of it, but just that all of them except Lawrence will be major question marks. I'm not usually big on FA QBs and trades but in this instance if we have a top pick I'd much rather have a FA QB (or trade...maybe Stafford for 3rd?) + Sewell/Chase/Parsons than taking a gamble on Fields or Lance. Obviously if we somehow ended up with #1 overall it's Lawrence, but I'm assuming that's not gonna happen.

 

If Kyle Trask continues to play well, he's going to be in the conversation.

[mistertim]

11 minutes ago, mhd24 said:

 

If Kyle Trask continues to play well, he's going to be in the conversation.

 

That's true. If Trask keeps it up I could see him moving up the boards.

 

The thing with Trask, and I know this is very subjective, is that despite how good his numbers so far have been I just don't see anything that pops out as great about him. Decent arm but not great, decent athleticism but not great, decent accuracy but not great, decent mechanics but not great (IMO he has pretty slow feet it seems), decent at going through reads but not great. He also has the benefit of playing with an almost unstoppable TE in Pitts.

 

Some of that may not be fair, and I'll need to re-watch to make sure. But he just seems "ok" to me when I watch him. 

[philibusters]

18 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

That's true. If Trask keeps it up I could see him moving up the boards.

 

The thing with Trask, and I know this is very subjective, is that despite how good his numbers so far have been I just don't see anything that pops out as great about him. Decent arm but not great, decent athleticism but not great, decent accuracy but not great, decent mechanics but not great (IMO he has pretty slow feet it seems), decent at going through reads but not great. He also has the benefit of playing with an almost unstoppable TE in Pitts.

 

Some of that may not be fair, and I'll need to re-watch to make sure. But he just seems "ok" to me when I watch him. 

 

So far the most impressive thing about Trask has been his decision making.   But he hasn't faced a really good defense yet and you really find out how how a good makes decisions when they are under pressure.  If Ohio St. played Maryland, Rutgers, and Illinois every week for example you would never find out if Fields is a good decision maker because they would never be in tough situations.

[Est.1974]

9 hours ago, KDawg said:

Smith IS under contract next year.

Smith is definitely the wildcard right now. Looks like he may well get 8+ games this season to prove his worth to Rivera moving forward. 
 

Outside of that, I’m curious about Winston from the FA crop. Ron has enough of a take on him from his days in Carolina. Think Winstons record v Rivera was 3-4, one shocking outing aside breakeven. 
 

But maybe like the Will Grier selection in CAR, if Smith is anywhere near solid/good we could be looking at a day 2 QB to back up Smith perhaps. Allen also retained as a restricted FA.

[Skinsinparadise]

I've bene watching my share of UF games this season.  Still trying to make my mind up about Trask, for sure I like the moxie he plays with. 

 

 Pitts though is a bonafide gamer the best college TE I've watched in quite some time.  Tony IMO is a fun watch too, that dude is feisty and can separate.  Good WR.