2021 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

[PartyPosse]

7 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

For me it's a question of depth.  I don't have enough knowledge of the LB class to be confident in late round selections there so I go with the two guys I know I like in the first round, whereas I know I like the later round options at RB.

 

I'm not as fixated on getting a big power/short yardage back.  I'm mainly just looking for explosiveness and flexibility.  I'm looking to build in redundancy as Gibson's injury crippled the offense.  I want a guy with the speed to punish the defense, be dangerous on runs from the shotgun, and the best scenario is one where the guy can also block and catch.  Kind of chasing what I had hoped we were going to get from Bryce Love, who was the missing ingredient from our ground game this year IMO.  Perhaps it's obvious, but I view Gainwell as a really clean fit because he's basically the more accomplished version of Gibson.  He can play in the slot as much as we'd  need him to, be a good motion player, and be really good from shotgun runs.  And Hubbard is another go-to choice for me because I just feel like his speed is so special.  Again, I would love to get a running back that can fly and that's him.  Add him + a WR (or two) like Darden/Atwell/Moore and our offense's speed goes from plodding to threatening.

As a Canadian, it kills me to say that Hubbard rubs me the wrong way. I don’t think his talent matches his personality and feel like he’ll end up being a problem in some capacity down the road. I’d rather just draft someone like Stephenson from Oklahoma on day 3 or Kylin Hill.

[Skinsinparadise]

16 minutes ago, PartyPosse said:

Yesterday showed me the importance of a physical bruising RB always falling forward and getting 3-4 yards minimum. However, yesterday also showed that sometimes these guys are out there. I love Najee and think he would really compliment the offense, but tbh, why not sign Fournette to a short term deal instead and use our first at a true position of need? 

 

IMO if Gibson was playing against our run defense (which wasn't hot this season) and Fournette against Tampa (#1 against the run two seasons in a row), the numbers would be majorly different for both.  Gibson is a big dude for a RB.  I agree with @stevemcqueen1 I want a RB who is explosive.  N. Harris though arguably brings both power and explosiveness albeit he's clearly more of a power guy.  I haven't dived in too deep yet into the prospects.  I usually do that after the season.   But for now, assuming we miss out on Harris and Etienne, I'd consider Javonte Williams in the 2nd or Trey Sermon in the third.  Big dudes but with explosion.  

 

 

 

[PartyPosse]

10 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

season.   But for now, assuming we miss out on Harris and Etienne, I'd consider Javonte Williams in the 2nd or Trey Sermon in the third.  Big dudes but with explosion.  

If we miss out on Najee then I’d rather wait until round 4 to grab another back. Again it all depends on how FA works out but RB to me is something that can be filled in other ways. Gibson will be a three down back and JD isn’t going anywhere. A RBBC doesn’t need to have elite talent. 

[carex]

29 minutes ago, PartyPosse said:

If we miss out on Najee then I’d rather wait until round 4 to grab another back. Again it all depends on how FA works out but RB to me is something that can be filled in other ways. Gibson will be a three down back and JD isn’t going anywhere. A RBBC doesn’t need to have elite talent. 

 

we do need a fourth back from somewhere though.  Bryce Love is never gonna play, it's time to accept it.  We need some depth

[KDawg]

45 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

IMO if Gibson was playing against our run defense (which wasn't hot this season) and Fournette against Tampa (#1 against the run two seasons in a row), the numbers would be majorly different for both.  Gibson is a big dude for a RB.  I agree with @stevemcqueen1 I want a RB who is explosive.  N. Harris though arguably brings both power and explosiveness albeit he's clearly more of a power guy.  I haven't dived in too deep yet into the prospects.  I usually do that after the season.   But for now, assuming we miss out on Harris and Etienne, I'd consider Javonte Williams in the 2nd or Trey Sermon in the third.  Big dudes but with explosion.  

 

 

 

 

Explosive backs:

 

Chuba Hubbard. CJ Verdell, Travis Etienne, Kenneth Gainwell, Javante Williams, Michael Carter.

[CommanderDOOM]

Getting the buckeyed bandit Serman in the second and using 19 on a stud lber would be priceless.

 

Would be a gamble I'd do after the Settle/Payne situation.

[Skinsinparadise]

27 minutes ago, KDawg said:

 

Explosive backs:

 

Chuba Hubbard. CJ Verdell, Travis Etienne, Kenneth Gainwell, Javante Williams, Michael Carter.

 

I like Etienne, Williams Carter and Hubbard.  I watched all of them in real time but haven't studied them.  I haven't watched Verdell and Gainwell but will. 

 

As for college, I almost exclusively watch SEC, ACC, Big 10, Big 12 during the season.  So I often have some thoughts about the bigger prospects from those conferences before studying prospects one at a time but the other prospects I usually know nothing about at this time of year until I dive in   I usually do most of my prospect watching in February.  So you are right now way ahead of me.  😀. So am taking notes and I'll try to get to most of these guys.  

Edited January 10, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

 

 

 

[Dark Acre]

58 minutes ago, KDawg said:

 

Explosive backs:

 

Chuba Hubbard.

With a name like Chuba Hubbard, he better be explosive.  If not, it's going to brutal going through adulthood as "Old chubba Hubbard" who kept going to the cubbard.

[The Consigliere]

On 1/4/2021 at 4:50 AM, method man said:

I really hope to make the trade for Stafford or another proven vet. That way, you don’t have to waste a Day 2 pick on Ridder, Newman or some other guy with a low probability of making it

 

 

I don't want a stopgap, but I also don't disagree. While I'm still in mourning over beating the Eagles which served zero positive purpose beyond culture (which is important, but meaningless long term, unless said culture is combined with a legitimate QB option in house which we clearly do not have), I also don't want us to waste draft capital on pipe dream QB's in the Jason Campbell/Patrick Ramsey mold. Serves no purpose. My interest w/QB in the offseason is a sell the farm trade up for QB, or an attempt to bring in a legit QB like Watson via trade. Considering what's happened in Houston this offseason, I can't see why Watson would want to stay. After the team basically initiated its collective suicide vest by continuing to allow O'Brien to destroy it over the previous two or three offseasons, the decision to ignore all sane advice, and just go w/the hunch of the fat rich kid son of the rich scumbag dead former owner, I can only imagine he wants the hell out at this point. 

 

The only question to me is what constitutes the kind of Godfather offer that would actually hurt us and be Bill O'Brienish. I think I would offer players and picks for Watson, but considering he's already gotten his mega extension (though low to my mind), I fear paying too much when we get none of the rookie deal value which is the single most important piece of a QB other than him being a "hit". 

 

I suspect we'll get some mediocre stopgap, or a little better, and continue to float around as a 6-8 win team while Dallas and Philly escort us back to the rear of the division as the rest have done overtime we've burbled up to a playoff run since Gibbs first retired 28 years ago. 

 

There are no easy answers. I would offer a mountain of pick and/or player value to get Fields or Lawrence, but I don't see either franchise saying yes to that, and Wilson and Lance have too many question marks to me to be worth what the trade up would cost when compared to Fields and Lawrence. 

 

We're screwed, barring a Saints getting Brees level miracle. 

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

[The Consigliere]

On 1/4/2021 at 12:17 PM, Rogue Jedi said:

Honestly, I'm at the point of trying to scout day 2-3 QBs.

 

As far as taking a QB in the 1st in 2021 - forget it.

 

We have no shot at the top prospects - trading up for one would be too costly, and I'd rather spend the 1st on a non-QB impact player. Even if someone like Mac Jones or Lance falls, I'd be a bit hesitant. We get too desperate for a franchise QB and it sometimes costs us passing on great players. 

Don't waste your time. The hit rate is so miniscule as to be a pointless time suck. No joke the hit rate is like 1.5-2 a decade out of 100-150 QB's drafted. It's a complete waste of time. 

On 1/5/2021 at 7:58 AM, Anselmheifer said:

The Bruce stuff is a waste of time. He’s a huge part of the reason we’ve sucked forever. It’s no coincidence that he’s gone and now our ex players don’t have a beef with the team and we are turning things around. McLain and McGee. That’s all I’m going to say. Point at the scoreboard.

 

Does any team this year have two seconds? I honestly wouldn’t mind a trade back to the top of the 2nd or to the late 1st this year. If we aren’t going up for a QB.

 

One quibble, we've been a dumpster fire since 1993. The Bruce Reign of Stupid was '10-'19 if memory serves. That leaves a good 17 years of suck that he had no hands in (understanding that we had periodic moments of "not suck" at a ratio of about 1-5). 

 

[CommanderDOOM]

1 hour ago, The Consigliere said:

 

 

I don't want a...since Gibbs first retired 28 years ago .....We're screwed....

 

Even after last night?? Watson is special, acquiring him is a pipedream.

 

[Skinsinparadise]

PFF's take of our roster, ranked 7th out of the 8 playoff teams

 

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-who-is-the-most-complete-2020-nfl-playoff-team

NO. 7: WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM

Offense

• The offensive line is the only thing saving this offense from being a below-average unit in all four of our categories. Even then, the Football Team’s status as PFF’s No. 3 pass-blocking offensive line is probably more due to Alex Smith’s tendency to get rid of the ball as quick as humanly possible: His average of 2.38 seconds from snap to pass is the eighth-fastest mark among all QBs with at least 200 dropbacks. 
• Only the Jets and Eagles had a worse overall passing offense rank than the Football Team. Their main issue all season has been creating big plays through the air; they join the 2018 Jaguars as the only offenses to post an explosive pass-play rate under 11% over the past three seasons.

Defense

• Only the Rams and Steelers posted a better EPA per pass play than the Football Team; this secondary and pass rush are legit. The latter group in particular is full of monsters, as each of Chase Young (No. 11), Jonathan Allen (No. 18) and Montez Sweat (No. 21) rank highly among 115 full-time interior and edge defenders this season.
• The one issue facing this defense has been their ability to truly shut down opposing rushing attacks; their 12.8% explosive run-play rate against ranks just 27th in 2020. This is made more concerning by the reality that they’ve faced run plays with at least eight defenders in the box at the league’s sixth-highest rate. Most of the Football Team’s success on defense comes from their front-seven’s ability to dominate opposing offensive lines; watch out if they meet an opponent with an o-line good enough to at least make things tougher than usual.

[XxSpearheadxX]

I'm sure you draftniks have talked about it. But What do you guys think about Waddle? Is he durable enough for NFL play? He just seems a little slight to me, but he also seems like he has good hands and a gear to make defenses very scared of his speed 

[86 Snyder]

3 hours ago, KDawg said:

 

Explosive backs:

 

Chuba Hubbard. CJ Verdell, Travis Etienne, Kenneth Gainwell, Javante Williams, Michael Carter.

 

I *really* like what I've seen from Gainwell.  First of all he has a great name for a RB, second you could put him in the backfield with Gibson or McKissick and do absolutely anything.

 

Hubbard sucks.  Etienne is not worth a 1st and will be overdrafted.  I'd be much more interested in Williams in the 2nd or 3rd.  He looks like a nice dual threat, good not great back..  Haven't seen enough of Verdell or Carter.

 

Sign me up for Gainwell though.  He looks like a star.

 

 

Edited January 10, 2021 by 86 Snyder

[The Consigliere]

On 1/5/2021 at 8:20 AM, KDawg said:

There’s a plethora of backs.

 

I am all in for Najee in round 1. But if we get to our pick and he’s gone or there are guys graded better (Smith? Lance? I’m including position weight and need in that “question”) I’m okay going back later. Guys like Sermon, the UNC guys, Ibrahim, I mean I could go on and on. There are so many good bellcow type backs. 
 

 

 

 

No there aren't. Not sure really what you're talking about here, as there is broad consensus that this is a weak RB class beyond the cream (Etienne and Harris), and the second tier (Williams, Hubbard and Gainwell). The main indictment is that there is a thin top tier compared to the loaded '17, '18 and '20 classes, and there is not much depth either. 

 

This is regarded as one of three worst RB drafts since 2015. The only ones as bad were 2016, which has been the worst RB draft since the great RB drought of 2009-2014, and 2019, which was largely garbage beyond Josh Jacobs and Miles Sanders. Next years is even worse, but this draft is basically, Etienne, Harris (who is overage and an absolute Do Not Draft), Javonte Williams, and Chubba Hubbard's awful final season. There are other guys, I know, probably the best of them and probably better than Hubbard at this point is Kenneth Gainwell. This isn't a worst draft ever kinda class, '16 was that and '22 will be that, but if you're ranking RB classes in the offseason they were drafted (not how it played out), then this would be pretty low on the list:

 

Tier 1: (elite)

2017

2018

2020

 

Tier 2: (solid)

2015

 

Tier 3: (little depth and a thin veneer of top tier talent)

2021

2019

 

Tier 4: (Do Not Draft the positional class)

2016

 

This isn't a good RB draft, it's a below average one at best,  you've got two elite prospects in Etienne and Harris, you've got two interesting ones in Williams and Gainwell, and you've got a whole lot of question marks following Etienne and Harris, and especially following Williams and Gainwell. You also shouldn't consider the position on day 1 due to the lack of value for second contract return. Right now there are few positions as bad to reup beyond a rookie deal as RB which is one of the many reasons even elite guys like Swift, Dobbins, Akers, and Taylor all failed to go in round 1 and for the most part, only badly run franchises have used top end draft capital in recent years on RB (Dallas with Zeke, Jacksonville with Fournette, NYG with Barkley, Oakland with Jacobs, now the Chiefs wasting a first rounder on CEH in a class loaded with at least 5 elite RB's (and where CEH was the worst of the top 5 at the time and has proven out-technically, he's far behind our very own Gibson as well). 

 

[The Consigliere]

On 1/5/2021 at 8:23 AM, Skinsinparadise said:

 

RB and WR seems deep.  I've been guessing its a LT or QB  (if QB isn't addressrd earlier) depending on who falls.  But I think at 19 or wherever we pick, that pick can sort of make itself when there is some surprise faller. 

 

 

I've talked up Stephenson some.  240 pounds.  A load to take down.  Fun watch. 

 

This is a great WR draft, RB is god awful. I don't know why people are buying the quality of the RB class. There are two close to sure things, and 2 or 3 maybes and a whole lot of nothing after that. Last year there were 4 sure things, 1 likely, and like 4 or 5 good speculative options, there was twice as much, maybe 3x as much upside at RB in last year's class, or '17 or '18, than this one. 

 

WR though? This is one of the three best WR drafts of the past 25 years alongside '14 and '20. 

[KDawg]

22 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

 

 

No there aren't. Not sure really what you're talking about here, as there is broad consensus that this is a weak RB class beyond the cream (Etienne and Harris), and the second tier (Williams, Hubbard and Gainwell). The main indictment is that there is a thin top tier compared to the loaded '17, '18 and '20 classes, and there is not much depth either. 

 

This is regarded as one of three worst RB drafts since 2015. The only ones as bad were 2016, which has been the worst RB draft since the great RB drought of 2009-2014, and 2019, which was largely garbage beyond Josh Jacobs and Miles Sanders. Next years is even worse, but this draft is basically, Etienne, Harris (who is overage and an absolute Do Not Draft), Javonte Williams, and Chubba Hubbard's awful final season. There are other guys, I know, probably the best of them and probably better than Hubbard at this point is Kenneth Gainwell. This isn't a worst draft ever kinda class, '16 was that and '22 will be that, but if you're ranking RB classes in the offseason they were drafted (not how it played out), then this would be pretty low on the list:

 

Tier 1: (elite)

2017

2018

2020

 

Tier 2: (solid)

2015

 

Tier 3: (little depth and a thin veneer of top tier talent)

2021

2019

 

Tier 4: (Do Not Draft the positional class)

2016

 

This isn't a good RB draft, it's a below average one at best,  you've got two elite prospects in Etienne and Harris, you've got two interesting ones in Williams and Gainwell, and you've got a whole lot of question marks following Etienne and Harris, and especially following Williams and Gainwell. You also shouldn't consider the position on day 1 due to the lack of value for second contract return. Right now there are few positions as bad to reup beyond a rookie deal as RB which is one of the many reasons even elite guys like Swift, Dobbins, Akers, and Taylor all failed to go in round 1 and for the most part, only badly run franchises have used top end draft capital in recent years on RB (Dallas with Zeke, Jacksonville with Fournette, NYG with Barkley, Oakland with Jacobs, now the Chiefs wasting a first rounder on CEH in a class loaded with at least 5 elite RB's (and where CEH was the worst of the top 5 at the time and has proven out-technically, he's far behind our very own Gibson as well). 

 

I don’t care what the consensus is. *shrug*

[Burgundy Yoda]

I wish I had some numbers to back it up, but I swear we run a ton of 4-2-5 sets on defense. I would say it's close to 75% of our snaps, this means we only have 2 LBers on the field a huge majority of the game. When there are only two guys covering the middle of the field, and a nickel these guys have to be snappy and incredibly reactionary to the plays in front of them. 

 

Bostic is just not athletic enough to cover that much space, it's too much to ask of him. He is a good general, but is very limited in what he can do in coverage and he's frequently late on a play. Tampa absolutely took advantage of our mediocre LBers yesterday, but our CBs also played an awful game. I wouldn't mind getting a CB somewhere in rounds 3-5 in the draft this year. 

 

I haven't watched a lot of J.O.K. but sitting at 19, we've got to think either he or Collins will be sitting there. I have a hard time believing 3 LBers will be gone in the 1st 18 picks. 

Edited January 10, 2021 by Burgundy Yoda

[KDawg]

Just now, Burgundy Yoda said:

I wish I had some numbers to back it up, but I swear we run a ton of 4-2-5 sets on defense. I would say it's close to 75% of our snaps, this means we only have 2 LBers on the field. When there are only two guys covering the middle of the field, and a nickel these guys have to be snappy and incredibly reactionary to the plays in front of them. 

 

Bostic is just not athletic enough to cover that much space, it's too much to ask of him. His a good general, but is very limited in what he can do in coverage and he's frequently late on a play. Tampa absolutely took advantage of our mediocre LBers yesterday, but our CBs also played an awful game. I wouldn't mind getting a CB somewhere in rounds 3-5 in the draft this year. 

 

I haven't watched a lot of J.O.K. but sitting at 19, we've got to think either he or Collins will be sitting there. I have a hard time believing 3 LBers will be gone in the 1st 18 picks. 

We absolutely do.

[Ball Security]

Tankathon currently has us taking Darrisaw, Jevon Holland S, Newman, and Brevin Jordan as our top 4 picks.

Five QBs were taken before we picked.  Toney was available in the second, would have taken him instead.

[Skinsinparadise]

Current PFF that collapsed the playoff game into their final score

[Warhead36]

PFF confirming the eye test that our biggest needs are WR and LB. Surprised Reaves is ranked so high but that's probably due to small sample size.