2021 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[Skinsinparadise]

Peter King

 

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2021/04/26/2021-nfl-mock-draft-fmia-peter-king/?cid=fmiatw

3. San Francisco 49ers (from Miami via Houston)—Mac Jones, QB, Alabama

Hearing it’s a two-horse race with Trey Lance. Quite a few of the experts will faint if this pick happens, and then outrage will ensue, and how-could-they-pass-on-Fields-and-Lance hot takes will flood the earth. GM John Lynch and coach Kyle Shanahan—with contracts that run through 2024 and 2025, respectively—do not care. They have not cared about public sentiment since taking these jobs, and this is their fifth draft. In their first, 2017, I was in the room as it happened, and these were the top three players on the board: 1 Myles Garrett, 2 Solomon Thomas, 3 Reuben Foster. With the third pick, they were sure to get one of those. But Foster? Really? No one had him that high. Lynch: “Had Solomon been gone, we’d have taken Foster. And been happy.” My point: Shanahan and Lynch won’t care what order the draftniks have the quarterbacks, or any position.

Shanahan believes Jones is the accurate coach-on-the-field type he craves. As one coach in QB-prospecting mode told me this spring: “Jones has elite NFL traits. He’s a natural thrower, is technically very sound, very accurate and throws a catchable ball. His base and mechanics are excellent.” He’s not the athlete a Lance or Fields is, but he doesn’t have feet of stone. I’ll be fascinated—we all will—if Jones is the pick. And I can see it happening.

 

8. Carolina Panthers—Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State 

Tiniest of all tiny clues: Interesting that the Panthers have yet to say (though many in the media have, including me) that Sam Darnold will have his fifth-year option—his 2022 contract—exercised and guaranteed by Carolina. They won’t do it, either, till at least after the draft. Count the Panthers as another team that would love to take a passel of picks from New England or Washington to move down. As I wrote last week, Carolina hates the fact that the franchise has averaged 6.2 picks per draft in the last eight years when the average team has 8.1. I’m not sure at all they’d use the pick here on Fields, because they’re truly optimistic about Sam Darnold. But owner David Tepper has made no secret that finding a franchise quarterback has to be job one, two, three and four for the team. Fields falling to them makes sense—even if it would crush the new incumbent QB.

9. Denver Broncos—Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State

Very nearly had a trade here—Denver dealing its first and second-round picks (9 and 40) to Detroit for the seventh pick, to take Lance. Denver GM George Paton still may do it, but I’m dubious the Lions will get anyone between 10 and 15 leapfrogging the two QB spots—Carolina and Denver—to take one of the quarterbacks. We’ll see. Paton is a lover of picks, so I’m not sure he’d surrender a starting player with the 40th pick to ensure getting Lance. In an ideal world, Lance goes somewhere like Atlanta to learn behind a good vet for a year or two, but in this case he’d probably challenge Drew Lock for the starting job by Halloween.

So many people are in love with Lance the prospect and it’s easy to see why. Excellent arm, good mobility, precocious player and leader. The one thing to keep in mind with Denver: Paton’s not going to go nuts for a quarterback; he’s okay with giving Lock first dibs here. However, Paton also understands he may not be in a power position to get the next quarterback like the one he would have if this scenario plays out.

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

For some reason I can only read the article via my phone so I can't post excerpts.

 

Among Breer's thoughts

 

A.  SF likely takes Jones

B. Atlanta likely sticks at 4 and takes Pitts

C.  Dolphins traded to 6 with likely thoughts of Pitts or Chase being there but good chance neither guy will be there so might want to trade back

D.  Lions hungry to trade down

E.  Thinks Fields falls to #8 tops and if so either Carolina would take him or they trade the pick to a team that wants him

F.  Denver would take a QB if falls, maybe trade up to 7

G.  NE has made calls to trade up into the top 10, one team doesn't think they are that serious about it -- i guess they aren't offering much

H.  Raiders likely into Darrisaw or Jamin Davis at 17

I.  Doesn't think WFT trades up and might go Darrisaw (if he falls) or Jamin Davis

J.  Bears haven't been active in exploring to trade up

 

A big deal for scouts is to watch players practice habits in the flesh but couldn't do it this year so they feel that's a big thing missing in evaluating. 

[DWinzit]

This week is going to be full of BS reports, guesses and rumors. I am already bored to death with them.

I want to hear about trades, cuts and bring on the draft!  No offense SIP 

[JoggingGod]

Fowler already reported that we’re looking into a trade into the top 10 so I Breer might be wrong on that part.

 

But please no to Jamin at 19.

[actorguy1]

Great answer from Saban. Some players are And's some players are But's. He has all the tools to be successful, AND he was a team captain and loved by teammates and coaches. Or, he has all the tools to be successful, BUT he got in a fight as a freshman, or he hurt his girlfriend, or the strength coach wouldn't piss on him if he was on fire.

[Going Commando]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

They've done a masterful job of keeping people guessing.  Jones started as the hot bet including by Vegas.    Then it turned to Fields.  Now Vegas is betting again on Jones.  Lance has been mentioned the whole time also as a possibility. 

 

Will see in the next few days if the rumors stick to Jones or Lance.  Right now, I'd guess Jones but my mind keeps changing. 

 

It's Jones.  You don't make that massive trade up without knowing exactly who you want, and they messed up and tipped their cards that it was Jones at the time it happened.  All of this other crap and confusion that's happened since is them lying anf trying to damage control after they realized the Jets could do something unexpected at 2.

 

They made the trade for Jones and it is shades of Shanahan trying to trade #2 overall for Kirk Cousins.  The reason people want to think it's someone other than Jones is because we think paying that price for Jones is so crazy and borderline incompetent that it can't possibly be what happened.

[Skinsinparadise]

21 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

It's Jones.  You don't make that massive trade up without knowing exactly who you want, and they messed up and tipped their cards that it was Jones at the time it happened.  All of this other crap and confusion that's happened since is them lying anf trying to damage control after they realized the Jets could do something unexpected at 2.

 

They made the trade for Jones and it is shades of Shanahan trying to trade #2 overall for Kirk Cousins.  The reason people want to think it's someone other than Jones is because we think paying that price for Jones is so crazy and borderline incompetent that it can't possibly be what happened.

 

That's where most of the rumors point to.  As for draftniks thinking its incompetent.   Depends on whom?  But agree its the case for many.  Guys like Jim Nagy seem to worship Mac Jones.  If they take him, it would be interesting to see how it plays out.

 

I talked a lot about Mac during the college season.  I thought he was underrated the way you feel Trask is underrated.  But even I am surprised he's caught fire like this in the draft process.  It wouldn't surprise me if he ends up a good QB but I would be surprised if he ends up great.

 

 

[Koolblue13]

I've been highest on Mac out of all the QBs and just want that noted for bragging rights years down the road.

[DWinzit]

I still see Mac and Lance as mid to late first round talent

 

[Skinsinparadise]

Ironically an article popped today in the WP about building the culture.  Sheehan has been talking about that and he's been on the high character/high intangibles drill might drive Rivera.

 

If Parsons has issues on that front, it feels like he might be out. 

 

 

The convincing boom beneath Ron Rivera’s campaign to change Washington’s football culture

 

 

Some people just naturally know how to say things in a voice that will make dogs sit and men dig entrenchments, and Ron Rivera is one of them. Born at Fort Ord in California, where his father was an Army chief warrant officer, he has such a habitual tone of command that you can practically hear the italics in his words, even on Zoom.

 

“I will tell you right now, we’re going to the Super Bowl, okay? But you’re not all going to come,” the head coach said in his first remote meeting with the Washington Football Team last spring. “If you want to be part of it, you have to make the commitment to us. And just so you understand, there are only two options with this commitment: You’re either in or you’re OUT. There will be no in-between.”

 

A lot of faux militaristic, spittle-flying haranguers say the same things as they pass through head coaching jobs in the NFL. What separates Rivera is that he’s actually got a record as a turnaround artist, twice now taking doormat teams to division titles. But if the members of the Washington football club are to make a real transformation from longtime losers to enduring winners, it won’t be because Rivera orders them to in a loud voice. It will be because, after all the years of managerial duplicity and double talk, they finally believe in somebody.

 

...Establishing his credibility with them last season was no sure thing as the team started 1-5 and struggled to adjust to the new tempo he drove in practice. He shouted, “Play fast, play fast, play fast!” Sometimes he halted a drill because he didn’t like the mere sound of it. A football collision should have a full-speed popping noise, not sound like “pillow fights,” he says. Still, some guys wanted to do things their way. One day there was a murmur of dissent from a player as Rivera was trying to drill a technique. The player said, “This is how I did it last year.”

Rivera bowed up. The previous year, Washington was 3-13. “That really pissed me off more than anything else,” he says. “When we were flopping around, losing games, to have somebody say, ‘Well, you know, this is what I did last year.’ ”

 

He called the whole team in. “Are you f------ kidding me?” Rivera said. “You’re going to sit here and tell me what you did last year was good enough? Three and 13 was GOOD enough? No, it wasn’t. And I’ll tell you right now, if you’re going to keep telling me this is how you’re going to do it, you’re not going to play. … Yeah, it’s different. Yeah, it’s hard. You’re learning something. If you think this is good enough to play in this league, come see me. Because I will get RID of your a-- right now.”

He told them, “What you allow is what you tolerate.” If they allowed themselves even one bad habit, “now it becomes acceptable,” he said.

 

...In fact, Rivera wasn’t holding everybody to the same standard. And they all knew it. Quarterback Dwayne Haskins, the personal first-round draft pick of owner Daniel Snyder, was a visible laggard. If there was one bad habit in the organization, the veterans knew, it was the devaluing of real effort while allowing a favored few to slide.

 

Rivera desperately wanted to give Haskins a fresh chance — “I loved the arm,” he says. “And he’s got a fast twitch about him when he sees the right thing.” At first Rivera figured all Haskins needed was some schooling. For 11 straight weeks, from training camp through the first month of the season, he gave Haskins every snap with the first team. “I was trying to create as much of an opportunity as possible to develop and grow,” Rivera says.

But after an initial burst of progress, Haskins reverted to a habitual casualness. “Look, everybody’s got a great arm in this league,” Rivera observes. “What separates them is the other part of it.”

 

While Rivera felt obliged to give Haskins every chance, it became plain how badly he was being outworked by the other quarterbacks. Particularly Smith, who was trying to prove his post-injury durability despite 17 surgeries and was another player Rivera didn’t know quite what to do with, to Smith’s ire. Reluctant to test Smith’s leg, Rivera felt most comfortable with the undrafted Kyle Allen, a dogged worker he calls “a very steady force. He’s a ‘hey, all right, whatever you want me to do, I’ll do.’ ”

 

Haskins was a huge complication in Rivera’s culture campaign because he made all of Rivera’s talk just wind. By the second game, Rivera was “concerned,” and by the third, when Haskins gave up three interceptions and a fumble in a loss to the Cleveland Browns, Rivera started asking hard questions of his staff.

“What type of commitment do we have? What is he doing? When is he getting in? When is he leaving? What extra things has he done? Who’s he been working with?”

 

Rivera would ask receivers, “Hey, have you been doing any extra work with him?” The reply was no. “You haven’t?”

 

...A week later he demoted Haskins to third string, and it was one of the two most important personnel moves Rivera would make all season. “I will say this: I think doing what I did helped me with the other guys,” Rivera reflects. “Because I showed them that, hey, guys, I’m not all-in on just one guy. I’m all-in on the team. … Making the decision not only had the impact of taking a young player and benching him, but it also told a group of guys, hey, look, if you’re not toeing the line, if you’re not doing your job and working the way you need to work and doing things the way we need them done, I’m moving on from you.”

 

The second-most-important player move was elevating unsung grinder Jeremy Reaves — and it was the complete opposite of the Haskins situation. Rivera had cut the 24-year-old safety from the roster of 53 in preseason, but Reaves was the kind of guy who did everything he was asked, in double-time. He had caught the coach’s eye with his energy. Rivera told him: “Look, you got our attention. This is a numbers game. Keep working, and I promise I’ll give you an opportunity.”

When Landon Collins went out with a season-ending Achilles’ injury, the football world expected Rivera to bring in big-name veteran Eric Reid to help with the playoff chase. But Rivera kept his promise to Reaves and promoted him from the practice squad. Reaves ended up the fifth-highest-rated safety in the league according to Pro Football Focus — and he told everyone in the building Rivera was a man of his word.

 

“I’d run through a brick wall for Coach. I’ll give Coach everything I got because he gave me an opportunity and he didn’t have to do that. He had a guy that he knew, that played in the system, that he was comfortable with, and he went with me,” Reaves told NBC Sports Washington at the end of the season. “So, like I said, I’ll give everything up for him. I’m super thankful, I’m super grateful for every opportunity that was given to me this year because it didn’t have to be like that. I tried to play balls to the wall for that man.”

 

As the season wore on, Rivera could see a change. There was no more resistance in practice — he didn’t have to push the pace, because the players were pushing it themselves. “You know, instead of watching a guy run by, they were actually physically putting themselves in position, or those that weren’t in position were getting on their horse and chasing after the play,” he says. “Now they start holding each other accountable and realizing what is and what isn’t acceptable — and that’s about as important as it gets.”

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

 

[dyst]

3 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

If Parsons has issues on that front, it feels like he might be out. 

Definitely a realistic view. They probably love his talent but Ron has already had to deal with Trent, Guice, Snyder and now Alex Smith. I could see the team being cautious.

[Going Commando]

11 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

That's where most of the rumors point to.  As for draftniks thinking its incompetent.   Depends on whom?  But agree its the case for many.  Guys like Jim Nagy seem to worship Mac Jones.  If they take him, it would be interesting to see how it plays out.

 

I talked a lot about Mac during the college season.  I thought he was underrated the way you feel Trask is underrated.  But even I am surprised he's caught fire like this in the draft process.  It wouldn't surprise me if he ends up a good QB but I would be surprised if he ends up great.

 

It can work out and still be a massive overpay.  Eli was a reach that worked out because of circumstance but the two QBs picked after him were much better players.  But he had a Manning name and a stable organization that believed in him and fully committed to him and he won big so he won't go the way of Trubisky.

 

Shanahan can make it work and win with Jones like he did with Garoppolo but it won't change the fact there was every chance in the world he could have gotten him far later and for far less than he paid to get him at 3.  Nor will it end up looking great if Lance and/or Fields end up being better than him, which looks like a real possibility with Fields.  To my eye Fields is already the better player and his ceiling is higher.

[Skinsinparadise]

I was just half listening to Standig who was on Sheehan this morning so I have to relisten.

 

But the parts I heard:

 

A.  he doesn't think they trade up

B.  He thinks they might have an opportunity to trade down especially because of the demand of corners.  He said to wath for Moehrig if they trade down.  He also said Jamin Davis but not as emphatically as Moehrig

[JamesMadisonSkins]

Has to cost more than that. I mean on the trade chart that’s even but if it’s for a QB and multiple suitors no way that gets it done. 
 

I guess we could offer 1/2/3 and see if Detroit bites. Or offer 1/4/1 ... Detroit has plenty of 2/3/4 picks this year so might probably value future picks quite a bit. A 1/3/1 from us gives them 3 #1’s next year. with smart GM’ing that can be parlayed into more future picks if they trade down next year. 

[Skinsinparadise]

13 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

I've been highest on Mac out of all the QBs and just want that noted for bragging rights years down the road.

 

OK noted.  But then I deserve bragging rights for hyping Mac including as a possibility at 19 before it was cool and became this universal top half of the first round prospect.  I have probably posed more pro Mac Jones propaganda during the college season than any player aside from Kyle Pitts.  

 

But yeah he wouldn't be the QB I'd put money on if i had to pick among those 3.  I'd go Fields.  Will see.  My prediction is Mac ends up a good QB 8-14 type.  Maybe like a Matt Ryan but not elite.  Will see. 

[Skinsinparadise]

13 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

It can work out and still be a massive overpay.  Eli was a reach that worked out because of circumstance but the two QBs picked after him were much better players.  But he had a Manning name and a stable organization that believed in him and fully committed to him and he won big so he won't go the way of Trubisky.

 

Shanahan can make it work and win with Jones like he did with Garoppolo but it won't change the fact there was every chance in the world he could have gotten him far later and for far less than he paid to get him at 3.  Nor will it end up looking great if Lance and/or Fields end up being better than him, which looks like a real possibility with Fields.  To my eye Fields is already the better player and his ceiling is higher.

 

No argument from me.  Short of @KDawg, it would be tough to find a bigger Fields guy than me.

 

I liked Mac Jones for a long time as that next QB after the top 4 .   And I liked him in that way before the hype went bananas.   I'll say reading about his alleged intangibles makes me like him even more.  It's story after story about Mac on that front.  But I do think he has limited upside.

 

Fields' talent is out of this world.  The mystery about him along with any player is the intangibles.  Peyton really sold it hard on the TV special I watched the other day which you got to work hard at your craft and have passion for the sport.  I've mentioned Arians' book on QBs here over the years and he gets into detail about the mechanics he looks for in his QBs -- yet he also stresses work ethic first and foremost.

 

As to Fields its been a mixed story as for whether he has that drive.  But I've read more positive than negative on that front.  From what I can tell he seems driven.    I am plenty sold enough on him 

[KDawg]

So... Mac Jones.

 

Do I think they gave up a ton to draft him? Yup. Do I think SF may have made a mistake in the sense that they could have waited until draft day to trade up and given up less assets to get Jones? Yup. 
 

But I also see that they moved to 3 so they didn’t have to worry about a surprise pick or someone jumping before they could. They moved to three so they could evaluate Lance, Fields, Jones and Wilson (it’s pretty commonly thought he goes 2, and I agree, but things happen sometimes) and make a real decision and get the pick of their guys rather than gamble and wait to see what happens.

 

I think Jones is likely their guy. He fits the Kyle mold of QB. He is mobile (I don’t know why people keep saying he’s not. He’s just not a super fast game changer as it pertains to mobility), he plays well with his eyes, he operates well from the pocket and on roll outs and he puts the ball in places his guys can get it. By all accounts he is a very studious guy who loves the game.

 

I think him going three is high but if he is the guy SF wants I can’t argue it. I see the fit. 

[Going Commando]

My flow chart for 19:

1 - trade up for Fields if the cost is low, especially if it were only a second and perhaps some change

2 - draft any blue chip faller other than Parsons.

3 - draft Darrisaw if he's there

4 - trade down if 1-3 don't happen

5 - pick Etienne or Najee if we're stuck at 19 or after a small trade down.

[TheGoodBits]

We’re in a tough spot at 19... far enough away from QB range that it will cost a good bit to get into the top 8 or whatever to get Fields/Lance/Jones. I do think 5 quarterbacks go in the top 10. Which means that other premium talent will fall. We could sit tight at 19 and take our future starting LT or a really good LB. But if Lance is there at 7 I’d be so tempted to go get him. 

[KDawg]

2 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

No argument from me.  Short of @KDawg, it would be tough to find a bigger Fields guy than me.

 

I liked Mac Jones for a long time as that next QB after the top 4 .   And I liked him in that way before the hype went bananas.   I'll say reading about his alleged intangibles makes me like him even more.  It's story after story about Mac on that front.  But I do think he has limited upside.

 

Fields' talent is out of this world.  The mystery about him along with any player is the intangibles.  Peyton really sold it hard on the TV special I watched the other day which you got to work hard at your craft and have passion for the spot.  I've mentioned Arians' book on QBs here over the years and he gets into detail about the mechanics he looks for in his QBs -- yet he also stresses work ethic first and foremost.

 

As to Fields its been a mixed story as for whether he has that drive.  But I've read more positive than negative on that front.  From what I can tell he seems driven.     

I think Fields is going to be the best QB of the bunch. I’ve been wrong before and certainly understand I could be here as well. But I don’t think so. 
 

I don’t know that SF picking Jones over him looks bad even if Fields is better just as long as Jones is very efficient. Nothing says Fields works as well as Jones does in SF, Jones works well in SF or elsewhere. None of that is written in stone.

 

But I would trade a lot to get Fields if he falls. I wouldn’t do the same for Mac... on this team anyways. But if Mac fell to 19 (he won’t) I’d take him. He’s very likely to be a good NFL QB. Maybe not too of the line. But good. As in Top 12ish. I don’t think Jimmy G is anywhere near that unless he’s with Belichick.

[Skinsinparadise]

2 minutes ago, KDawg said:

 

 

I think Jones is likely their guy. He fits the Kyle mold of QB. He is mobile (I don’t know why people keep saying he’s not. He’s just not a super fast game changer as it pertains to mobility), he plays well with his eyes, he operates well from the pocket and on roll outs and he puts the ball in places his guys can get it. By all accounts he is a very studious guy who loves the game.

 

 

 

That's a good point that isn't stressed enough.  Jones isn't immobile.  He has sneaky decent athleticism.  He's just not a running QB.

 

If we want to focus on an immobile/old school QB that would be Trask.   

[KDawg]

3 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

My flow chart for 19:

1 - trade up for Fields if the cost is low, especially if it were only a second and perhaps some change

2 - draft any blue chip faller other than Parsons.

3 - draft Darrisaw if he's there

4 - trade down if 1-3 don't happen

5 - pick Etienne or Najee if we're stuck at 19 or after a small trade down.

I’m almost totally on board with this except for Etienne (though... I wouldn’t mind him I just would go to other places before him despite the fact that I think he could be very Kamaraish).

 

I’d entertain corner, Moehrig at 19. But I think that’s accounted for in your blue chip comment. 
 

I’d be willing to make a small move forward if, say, Sewell or Slater falls. I can’t see a scenario that happens, though.

[Skinsinparadise]

5 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

My flow chart for 19:

1 - trade up for Fields if the cost is low, especially if it were only a second and perhaps some change

2 - draft any blue chip faller other than Parsons.

3 - draft Darrisaw if he's there

4 - trade down if 1-3 don't happen

5 - pick Etienne or Najee if we're stuck at 19 or after a small trade down.

 

I like this plan but I am assuming #5 isn't in play with them.  Will see.  Thursday can't get here soon enough.  

 

i also assume trading up for Fields won't come cheap but i might do it anyway.  I am thinking you got to go to #7 to pull it off or worse case #8. 

[RWJ]

2 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I like this plan but I am assuming #5 isn't in play with them.  Will see.  Thursday can't get here soon enough.  

 

i also assume trading up for Fields won't come cheap but i might do it anyway.  I am thinking you got to go to #7 to pull it off or worse case #8. 

Yep, #7 to me and starting to think definitely is the sweet spot for one of the two QB maybe both Lance and Fields being available for trade.  It's possible both are there we just don't know yet but Fields seems to be the one.