BBC: China pneumonia outbreak: COVID-19 Global Pandemic

[Llevron]

What would happen if all those people ended up on the street now though? Actually asking. 

[tshile]

Also this is a prime example of why the best route to economic support during a crisis is to just cut checks to the bottom whatever % (you deem appropriate) do they can keep paying their bills. 
 

would be less damaging, less costly (in total picture), and keep people happier (quelling civil strife is an under appreciated aspect of government policy) 

 

A number of us were calling for it when this all started over a year ago. 
 

The fact that lenders have done things slightly different everywhere has lead to an issue of the backlog hitting all at once. It’s going to create its own mini-crisis in the industry. 
 

total failure of the admin, Congress, etc to address a huge issue part of the main crisis. 

3 minutes ago, Llevron said:

What would happen if all those people ended up on the street now though? Actually asking. 

Who knows? There’s no plan. 
 

Eviction is a length legal process and how long depends on the state. The courts are already backlogged from general issues. This is going to multiply the backlog greatly.  It’ll take months for the first evictions to actually happen once paperwork is turned in to start the process. 
 

it’s not like the next day all these people are on the street. That’s not how eviction works. At least not in the states around here. 
 

and who knows how judges will rule on specific cases in specific states with all the various rules and interpretations given the pandemic situation….

[tshile]

Here’s a great explanation of how the mortgage forbearance program alone is a disaster with no clean exit strategy

 

https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2021/08/black-knight-mortgage-monitor-for-june.html?m=1

 

Quote

Prior to the agencies issuing clarifying guidance on allowable forbearance periods, some 950,000 plans were set to expire over the final six months of the year – representing about half of all loans in forbearance,” said Graboske. “That estimate assumed a blanket 18-month maximum allowable forbearance period. However, now we have detailed matrices of differing forbearance periods across the various agencies. Depending upon the specific agency and when forbearance was initially requested by the homeowner, a plan can have a 6-, 12-, 15- or 18-month limit. Assuming borrowers stay in for the maximum allowable term, this means plans that started as much as seven months apart are now scheduled to expire simultaneously, frontloading expirations of forbearance plans sooner than estimated.

“As a result, 65% of active plans – representing approximately 1.2 million homeowners – are now set to expire over the rest of 2021, including nearly 80% of all FHA and VA loans in forbearance. Nearly three quarters of a million plans would expire in September and October alone. Over the course of just two months this fall, the nation’s mortgage servicers would have to process up to approximately 18,000 expiring plans per business day, guiding borrowers through complex loss mitigation waterfalls directed by changing regulatory requirements. The operational challenge this represents is staggering, even before noting the oversized share of FHA and VA loans. Given the heightened challenges those borrowers may face in returning to making mortgage payments as compared to those in GSE loans, effective loss mitigation efforts and automated processes become even more critically important.”

 

[CousinsCowgirl84]

2 hours ago, Larry said:

I agree that a policy of "just don't pay your landlord, and he can't do anything about it (yet)" is a recipe for a bomb. 
 

Without some way of getting the landlord paid, it's a huge problem. 
 

Although I'm making assumptions that that's what we've got, here. I hope I'm wrong. 

I think I made the same argument before, if land lords don’t get paid there will be a lot of foreclosures....

 

but the housing market is as hot as it has ever been, even with the eviction moratorium. Doesn’t seem to have the affect one would think it would. Even if the housing market softens a little bit it should be fine.

[tshile]

Um. It’s not having an effect because no one is being foreclosed on yet. 
 

prices have held/gone up because inventory is low, builders can’t keep up (and labor/material inflation has made building way more expensive anyways). 
 

im looking at beach houses. They’ve doubled in price since covid started.  Doubled in 17 months. That’s absurd. 
 

When the forbearance program ends we’ll see what the effect is. And a lot of that will be determined by the state of things (low unemployment and wage levels being normal or higher) as it’s possible many people will be able to just resume paying their mortgage. 
 

I don’t think the impact can be determined except that there’s potential for it to be catastrophic, since there’s no real plan in place. 
 

im currently saving for a beach house purchase if this turns into an unmitigated disaster as I’m thinking prices may drop significantly for such things. 
 

we also don’t know what people will want to do that aren’t dealing with forbearance. Will return to work, reduction in restrictions, create a situation where many people who fled cities (driving up prices) are now trying to get back into cities and selling homes (increase in supply)?!

 

we also don’t know what interest rates will do. Generally speaking lower rates -> higher home valuations/purchase prices, and higher rates -> lower valuations/purchase prices 

 

it’s hard to guarantee anything when there is a plan. When there’s not a plan…

 

and while I realize there’s an element of “Biden inherited this mess” - at some point in time the person currently in charge needs to be held accountable for assessing the problem, even if he didn’t create it. 

Edited August 4, 2021 by tshile

[PeterMP]

https://news.yahoo.com/40-wild-deer-population-us-105754924.html

 

Up to 40% of wild deer population in US exposed to coronavirus, study finds

 

This greatly increases the chance that we never get rid of Covid and this becomes another seasonal flu.

[CousinsCowgirl84]

3 hours ago, PeterMP said:

https://news.yahoo.com/40-wild-deer-population-us-105754924.html

 

Up to 40% of wild deer population in US exposed to coronavirus, study finds

 

This greatly increases the chance that we never get rid of Covid and this becomes another seasonal flu.

Not going to be good if it requires a really vax.... going to take surges before more than 70 percent of the population gets reups

[CousinsCowgirl84]

11 hours ago, tshile said:
 

When the forbearance program ends we’ll see what the effect is. And a lot of that will be determined by the state of things (low unemployment and wage levels being normal or higher) as it’s possible many people will be able to just resume paying their mortgage. 
 

Well, banks are required to report on the state of their mortgage loans.

 

https://www.mba.org/2021-press-releases/april/share-of-mortgage-loans-in-forbearance-decreases-to-466-percent

 

4.66 percent of loans were in forbearance as of April 2021. if if all those loans foreclose it’s still not a financial crisis.

 

11 hours ago, tshile said:

 

I don’t think the impact can be determined except that there’s potential for it to be catastrophic, since there’s no real plan in place. 
 

 

I think the real economic catastrophe is coming in the form of labor shortages as a result of extended unemployment benefits, lack of daycare for would be workers, lack of migrant workforce, ect. But different topic.
 

Quote

 

im currently saving for a beach house purchase if this turns into an unmitigated disaster as I’m thinking prices may drop significantly for such things.
 

 

I’m not saying we aren’t in a bubble, it’s probable that we are, but extending the eviction moratorium won’t cause it to burst.

 

Quote

 

we also don’t know what people will want to do that aren’t dealing with forbearance. Will return to work, reduction in restrictions, create a situation where many people who fled cities (driving up prices) are now trying to get back into cities and selling homes (increase in supply)?!
 

well if the move from one house to another house/condo supply isn’t really increased. There also isn’t a huge building boom going on for in-city condo towers so when the shift happens expect super high rents that will price out some would be city dwellers.

 

Quote

 

we also don’t know what interest rates will do. Generally speaking lower rates -> higher home valuations/purchase prices, and higher rates -> lower valuations/purchase prices 

 

well, we can bet that baring a real economic catastrophe they will be where they are at now or higher, since they are already at record lows...

 

[tshile]

17 minutes ago, CousinsCowgirl84 said:

I’m not saying we aren’t in a bubble, it’s probable that we are, but extending the eviction moratorium won’t cause it to burst

I don’t think extending would cause it. I think it ending and the floodgates opening will. 
 

if economic conditions are such that people can just start paying their mortgages again…

[tshile]

Also I think you’re downplaying the potential impact of over 4% of mortgages, which is almost 2 million mortgages, hitting bankruptcy 
 

note I said potential impact. I’m not trying to be gun ho on catastrophe is around the counter. Just that it could be. 
 

for starters there’s no reason to believe 100% of mortgages will go to foreclosure once the moratorium lifts 

Edited August 5, 2021 by tshile

[PeterMP]

2 hours ago, CousinsCowgirl84 said:

Not going to be good if it requires a really vax.... going to take surges before more than 70 percent of the population gets reups

 

Getting it in the past will almost certainly offer some protection from (many) future strains.

 

Most years the problem won't likely be as extreme as the last two years.  Essentially, we've been trying to get the whole world to have some immunity to a virus that most of the human population has very little to no immunity to.  If it jumps back and forth between humans and animals over the next years, most years evolutionary changes in the virus will be minimal and having it or the vaccine in the past you will give you some immunity.

 

(Most years your flu vaccine from the previous years gives you some protection from the flu from the next year and same with getting the flu.  Same will be true for Covid.)

Edited August 5, 2021 by PeterMP

[Califan007 The Constipated]

 

[Cooked Crack]

 

 

[Ball Security]

9 minutes ago, Cooked Crack said:

 

 

It’s really disheartening to know that “blame the immigrants” is such an effective tool in this disinformation campaign.  It’s lazy, but enough people gobble it up to make it work.  When I go to the gym, my treadmill typically turns on Fox and that’s what they had on.  Disgusting.

[visionary]

https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/1423272271645483009

Edited August 5, 2021 by visionary

[EmirOfShmo]

Yeah, this is should help the situation... 

 

Sturgis bike rally revs back bigger, despite virus variant

 

SIOUX FALLS, S.D. (AP) — Crowds of bikers are rumbling their way towards South Dakota's Black Hills this week, raising fears that COVID-19 infections will be unleashed among the 700,000 people expected to show up at the Sturgis Motorcycle Rally.

The rally, which starts Friday, has become a haven for those eager to escape coronavirus precautions. Last year, the rally hardly slowed down, with roughly 460,000 people attending. Masks were mostly ditched as bikers crowded into bars, tattoo parlors and rock shows, offering a lesson in how massive gatherings could spread waves of the virus across the country.

This year — the 81st iteration of the rally — is expected to be even bigger, drawing people from around the U.S. and beyond, despite concerns about the virus’ highly contagious delta variant.

“It’s great to see a party of hundreds of thousands of people,” said Zoltán Vári, a rallygoer who was settling into his campsite Tuesday after making the trek from Hungary. 

 

https://news.yahoo.com/sturgis-bike-rally-revs-back-184653236.html

[PCS]

 

[88Comrade2000]

I think if Hillary had been president; the gop reaction would have been the same. Probably more do because you can’t have Hillary dictating your life.

[Ball Security]

18 minutes ago, Rdskns2000 said:

I think if Hillary had been president; the gop reaction would have been the same. Probably more do because you can’t have Hillary dictating your life.

My friends have had discussions about that.  It probably would have been a lot uglier in 2020 with reactions to lockdowns, but the response would have been more organized (how could it not be).  She probably doesn’t win a second term even though 10s of thousands of less people die.  I dunno.

[CousinsCowgirl84]

33 minutes ago, Rdskns2000 said:

I think if Hillary had been president; the gop reaction would have been the same. Probably more do because you can’t have Hillary dictating your life.

trump made a lot of dumb people go “See, I ain’t stupid” once the President started saying the same stuff aloud they’ve been whispering for years. He basically gave them the courage to get loud without having to be outed as a fool.

 

If trump wasn’t president I think a lot of the maskless karls and Karen’s would have been a lot more quiet.

[Califan007 The Constipated]

 

 

[Dan T.]

On 8/4/2021 at 5:08 PM, PeterMP said:

https://news.yahoo.com/40-wild-deer-population-us-105754924.html

 

Up to 40% of wild deer population in US exposed to coronavirus, study finds

 

This greatly increases the chance that we never get rid of Covid and this becomes another seasonal flu.

 

That figures.  I haven't seen a single deer wearing a mask.

[Larry]

On 8/4/2021 at 5:08 PM, PeterMP said:

https://news.yahoo.com/40-wild-deer-population-us-105754924.html

 

Up to 40% of wild deer population in US exposed to coronavirus, study finds

 

This greatly increases the chance that we never get rid of Covid and this becomes another seasonal flu.

[Cooked Crack]

 

 

Conservatives will rather eat horse paste to treat/prevent covid than just getting the vaccine.

Edited August 6, 2021 by Cooked Crack

[Llevron]

49 minutes ago, Cooked Crack said:

Conservatives will rather eat horse paste to treat/prevent covid than just getting the vaccine.

 

Apply the kind of 'thinking' it would take to arrive in that kind of headspace to their political views it makes a sick kind of sense that they are the way they are.