BBC: China pneumonia outbreak: COVID-19 Global Pandemic

[Larry]

2 hours ago, skinsfan_1215 said:

They’ve started testing. The larger point is that you could reasonably expect to have somewhere in the neighborhood of 70% immunity by Sept (between the 15-20% who have already had the virus and the vaccine rollout). That is going to dramatically reduce community spread, you’ll have all your vulnerable population covered, and you’ll have all your school staff covered. It won’t be back to normal necessarily, you’ll still need kids wearing masks, etc. But it’ll be much safer to open schools. 

 

. . . . if people actually do what the people with knowledge tell them to do.  

 

But when you've got multiple heads of the health department quitting their job because of groups of people showing up at their home to threaten them and their families with lethal force, I'm not certain you want to be making predictions based on that assumption.  

[Larry]

2 hours ago, tshile said:

virginia department of health is saying that there is no statistically significant difference in community conditions between communities that have in person schooling and those that don’t. 

 

Which doesn't mean it's safe.  It simply means that any increases don't noticeably move the needle for the entire population.  

 

Still, I suppose it's better than there being a noticeable difference.  

[tshile]

23 minutes ago, Larry said:

 

Which doesn't mean it's safe.  It simply means that any increases don't noticeably move the needle for the entire population.  

 

Still, I suppose it's better than there being a noticeable difference.  

As the VA health department said in their presentation - “safe” is a loaded and misused word. 
 

the idea is to balance risk vs cost vs reward. 
 

trying to work towards something called “safe” doesn’t work when people use different definitions and ultimate 100% safety is never possible. 
 

what it means is that statistically we’re seeing the same outcomes whether kids are in school or not. 
 

the data isn’t perfect. But it’s what we have at the moment. 
 

(this is also very specific to our state, other states situations are not relevant. Even comparing outcomes is hard because places have unique circumstances and rules)

[COWBOY-KILLA-]

If they aren’t testing in schools they are flying blind. If you are flying blind, it is in no way safe. The virus is running rampant across the country, anywhere we aren’t testing and tracing, is playing pretend with “handling it.”

 

Edited January 25, 2021 by COWBOY-KILLA-

[Larry]

26 minutes ago, tshile said:

what it means is that statistically we’re seeing the same outcomes whether kids are in school or not. 

 

My point is that we're seeing that changing the behavior of a tiny fraction of the population, doesn't noticeably affect the population as a whole. 

To use an analogy, (may be a bad one), whether I personally wear a mask won't noticeably change the total deaths for the county, either. (Probably)  

Edited January 25, 2021 by Larry

[tshile]

3 hours ago, tshile said:

The data and science doesn’t support shutting the schools down anymore. And it hasn’t for a while. 

I should revise this statement:

it doesn’t support not having the conversation. 
 

how to interpret it is very specific to the community. My point I was trying to make was that it’s a valid conversation to have, and that it cannot just be shut down under the guise of “it’s not safe, end of discussion” which is what some people do (speaking specifically to my area)
 

 

[TD_washingtonredskins]

26 minutes ago, tshile said:

As the VA health department said in their presentation - “safe” is a loaded and misused word. 
 

the idea is to balance risk vs cost vs reward. 
 

trying to work towards something called “safe” doesn’t work when people use different definitions and ultimate 100% safety is never possible. 
 

what it means is that statistically we’re seeing the same outcomes whether kids are in school or not. 
 

the data isn’t perfect. But it’s what we have at the moment. 
 

(this is also very specific to our state, other states situations are not relevant. Even comparing outcomes is hard because places have unique circumstances and rules)

That's been my biggest frustration for months...

 

"...when it's safe again.." or "...after COVID..." 

 

What we need to be focusing on is exactly what you laid out: risk (there will always be SOME) vs. cost vs. reward. 

[Fergasun]

Here in SoCal every county by objective messures COVID is widespread. That means more than 7 cases per 100k tests and more than 8 percent positivity rate. 

 

But we are lifting the "stay at home" order put in place before Christmas because ICU capacity is not getting crushed. 

 

My family wants to meet people, go on fun vacations to new places and "get on with life" but that can't drive our decision making.  No one wants to hear it, but we need to take this global pandemic months at a time.  I am fortunate to be in a job with no economic hit, for the moment. 

 

There's not going to be an easy "click your heels together" solution. Everyone needs to acknowledge it will be a 2 to 3 year impact at a minimum.  I don't know how we are avoiding massive "Hooverville" like conditions economically.  

 

 

 

 

[tshile]

1 minute ago, TD_washingtonredskins said:

That's been my biggest frustration for months...

 

"...when it's safe again.." or "...after COVID..." 

 

What we need to be focusing on is exactly what you laid out: risk (there will always be SOME) vs. cost vs. reward. 

right. And what makes it hard for us, on this board, to discuss it is that it’s a very local issue. 
 

and how local also depends. For example if you live in an area, like I do, where people leave the area for shopping, hanging out, and work then your local area is bigger then your school district boundaries. 

[Larry]

1 minute ago, TD_washingtonredskins said:

That's been my biggest frustration for months...

 

"...when it's safe again.." or "...after COVID..." 

 

What we need to be focusing on is exactly what you laid out: risk (there will always be SOME) vs. cost vs. reward. 

 

Oh, absolutely. This virus will never go completely away. Not happening. 

But I do think, when we're discussing opening schools, that it's reasonable to point out that infection and death rates are, what, 4 times what they were, 4 months ago?

[The Evil Genius]

28 minutes ago, Fergasun said:

Here in SoCal every county by objective messures COVID is widespread. That means more than 7 cases per 100k tests and more than 8 percent positivity rate. 

 

But we are lifting the "stay at home" order put in place before Christmas because ICU capacity is not getting crushed. 

 

My family wants to meet people, go on fun vacations to new places and "get on with life" but that can't drive our decision making.  No one wants to hear it, but we need to take this global pandemic months at a time.  I am fortunate to be in a job with no economic hit, for the moment. 

 

There's not going to be an easy "click your heels together" solution. Everyone needs to acknowledge it will be a 2 to 3 year impact at a minimum.  I don't know how we are avoiding massive "Hooverville" like conditions economically.  

 

Just to clarify (for everyone else),  the statewide stay at home order was lifted across the state (previously portions of the state had already been lifted). That said, it's up the individual counties to determine what is safe to reopen (e.g. outdoor dining, hair salons, etc) and they should be using the county color tier system to do so. 

 

We are still a good bit away from being close to open as a state. 

 

Edit.. I would generally expect SoCal to lag behind most of the state in reopening, based on the infected rates down there. 

Edited January 25, 2021 by The Evil Genius

[tshile]

31 minutes ago, Larry said:

 

Oh, absolutely. This virus will never go completely away. Not happening. 

But I do think, when we're discussing opening schools, that it's reasonable to point out that infection and death rates are, what, 4 times what they were, 4 months ago?

Where are you seeing the death rate has increased by a factor of 4 in the last 4 months?

 

not saying you’re wrong, I just haven’t seen that data and don’t seem to be able to find it

[Larry]

7 minutes ago, tshile said:

Where are you seeing the death rate has increased by a factor of 4 in the last 4 months?

 

not saying you’re wrong, I just haven’t seen that data and don’t seem to be able to find it

 

Both were just guesses pulled from my impressions. 

But the first hit I get on a Google search finds an NYT article with a whole bunch of charts where you can click on days and see what the 7 day average was, on that day.  The chart for deaths is a ways down the page  Looks like my wild guess was a lot more accurate than I expected. 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html

 

[mammajamma]

25 minutes ago, The Evil Genius said:

 

Just to clarify (for everyone else),  the statewide stay at home order was lifted across the state (previously portions of the state had already been lifted). That said, it's up the individual counties to determine what is safe to reopen (e.g. outdoor dining, hair salons, etc) and they should be using the county color tier system to do so. 

 

We are still a good bit away from being close to open as a state. 

 

Edit.. I would generally expect SoCal to lag behind most of the state in reopening, based on the infected rates down there. 

Ya, lifting the stay at home order only really allows outdoor dining for the whole state now, and removes the 10pm to 5am curfew. Everything else stays the same (no indoor dining, capacity limits, etc).

 

Pretty much nothing changes at all because nobody was really following the stay at home order anyway (restaurants in socal were still open, curfew wasnt being enforced, etc).

 

So I don't really get the outrage of lifting the stay at home order when everything will be the same.

[tshile]

57 minutes ago, Larry said:

 

Both were just guesses pulled from my impressions. 

But the first hit I get on a Google search finds an NYT article with a whole bunch of charts where you can click on days and see what the 7 day average was, on that day.  The chart for deaths is a ways down the page  Looks like my wild guess was a lot more accurate than I expected. 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html

 

I don’t see anything about rates though. 
 

raw numbers and per capita, but not death rate?

[Larry]

Just now, tshile said:

I don’t see anything about rates though. 
 

raw numbers and per capita, but not death rate?

 

Assume you're looking for the mortality rate. Deaths per infection. 

I was simply talking about the death rate, as in total deaths per day. 

[TheMalcolmConnection]

Side note: was there a reason why higher education wasn't in 1b in Virginia? I work at UVa and have to interact daily with 50+ kids from ALL over the country and not saying K-12 is easier, but at least you know where those kids come from and they sure as hell aren't out on Fridays and Saturdays mixing it up with each other (that I know of lol).

[spjunkies]

 

[Larry]

19 minutes ago, spjunkies said:

 

 

The bad news is, that may be true, considering how well the "don't get vaccinated" misinformation campaign is working.  

[China]

2 hours ago, Larry said:

 

The bad news is, that may be true, considering how well the "don't get vaccinated" misinformation campaign is working.  

 

Which is why if I were an employer I'd mandate it as a condition of continued employment.  

[TheGreatBuzz]

17 minutes ago, China said:

 

Which is why if I were an employer I'd mandate it as a condition of continued employment.  

Can you?  I know for the military it is voluntary as long as it is under a EUA.  I’m told they can’t make it mandatory until it has a regular authorization.

[China]

13 minutes ago, TheGreatBuzz said:

Can you?  I know for the military it is voluntary as long as it is under a EUA.  I’m told they can’t make it mandatory until it has a regular authorization.

 

Yes they can, but many probably won't.

 

https://hrexecutive.com/employers-can-legally-require-covid-vaccines-but-will-they/

 

https://www.aarp.org/work/working-at-50-plus/info-2020/employer-require-covid-vaccine.html

[China]

China Wanted to Show Off Its Vaccines. It’s Backfiring.

 

China’s coronavirus vaccines were supposed to deliver a geopolitical win that showcased the country’s scientific prowess and generosity. Instead, in some places, they have set off a backlash.

 

Officials in Brazil and Turkey have complained that Chinese companies have been slow to ship the doses and ingredients. Disclosures about the Chinese vaccines have been slow and spotty. The few announcements that have trickled out suggest that China’s vaccines, while considered effective, cannot stop the virus as well as those developed by Pfizer and Moderna, the American drugmakers.

 

In the Philippines, some lawmakers have criticized the government’s decision to buy a vaccine made by a Chinese company, Sinovac. Officials in Malaysia and Singapore, which both ordered doses from Sinovac, have had to reassure their citizens that they would approve a vaccine only if it had been proved safe and effective.

 

“Right now, I would not take any Chinese vaccine, because there’s insufficient data,” said Bilahari Kausikan, an influential former official at Singapore’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs. He added that he would consider it only with “a proper report.”

 

Beijing officials who had hoped the vaccines would burnish China’s global reputation are now on the defensive. State media has started a misinformation campaign against the American vaccines, questioning the safety of the Pfizer and Moderna shots and promoting the Chinese vaccines as a better alternative. It has also distributed online videos that have been shared by the anti-vaccine movement in the United States.

 

Click on the link for the full article

[Larry]

36 minutes ago, China said:

Beijing officials who had hoped the vaccines would burnish China’s global reputation are now on the defensive. State media has started a misinformation campaign against the American vaccines, questioning the safety of the Pfizer and Moderna shots and promoting the Chinese vaccines as a better alternative. It has also distributed online videos that have been shared by the anti-vaccine movement in the United States.

 

Russia's got a head start on them, in that department.  

 

[spjunkies]