The State of the Economy Thread - “Falling inflation, rising growth give U.S. the world’s best recovery”

[Spaceman Spiff]

On 8/12/2021 at 9:01 PM, NoCalMike said:

Has anyone checked out those Russell Brand videos on how corporations are using the banking system to avoid taxes?  It's a good example of how the uber-wealthy are doing things that are technically not illegal aka loopholes to screw the American people, something could be done to regulate those loopholes away, but neither party will likely do it.

 

Of course not.  Because our elected officials are the uber-wealthy and they don't like paying taxes no matter which party they represent.  

 

[Cooked Crack]

 

 

Old ass millennials. 👴

[China]

The term Geriatric Millennials is a stupid oxymoron.

 

 

Edited September 18, 2021 by China

[China]

 

[Larry]

39 minutes ago, China said:

 

 

. . . which every Republican in Congress would celebrate.  

[China]

Big bank bosses and AARP join Biden’s push to raise the debt ceiling with 12 days before deadline

 

President Joe Biden will on Wednesday escalate his call for Congress to address the debt ceiling in a meeting with some of Wall Street’s top CEOs and stress that delaying an increase to the borrowing limit risks a first-ever U.S. default and near certain economic calamity.

 

Nine CEOs are expected to attend, including JPMorgan Chase boss Jamie Dimon, Intel exec Pat Gelsinger, Nasdaq chief Adena Friedman and Raytheon leader Greg Hayes. AARP chief Jo Ann Jenkins, Citi CEO Jane Fraser and Deloitte exec Punit Renjen are also on the guest list.

 

Biden will be joined by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo and White House senior advisor Cedric Richmond.

 

The group will discuss the “urgent need for Congress to take immediate bipartisan action to address the debt limit and avoid default on the U.S. government’s financial obligations and the economic catastrophe that would follow,” according to a White House statement. The president will also pin blame for the drama on Republicans’ obstruction of a generally routine legislative process.

 

Click on the link for the full article

 

 

-------------------------------------

 

Senate Democrats appear open to short-term debt ceiling reprieve from GOP

 

Senate Democrats and Republicans neared a deal on Wednesday that would temporarily stave off a default on the government’s debts, exploring a short-term reprieve to a high-stakes battle that had threatened to plunge the United States into a new economic recession.

 

The agreement between the two parties’ lawmakers, which was not final, arrived less than two weeks before the country is set to careen into a financial crisis. Without congressional action, the government could face new limits on its ability to pay its bills, a development that could have direct consequences on Americans’ wallets — and rattle stock markets around the world.

 

To prevent such a crisis, Senate Majority Leader Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.) and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) inched closer to a pact that would raise the borrowing limit until an unspecified date in December. McConnell put forward the idea earlier in the day, loosening a weeks-long logjam during which the GOP twice had banded together against Democratic attempts to suspend the debt ceiling into 2022.

 

By Wednesday night, however, the two leaders had not yet finalized key details of their truce, including the exact amount by which they would raise the cap. Even though it promised to put an end to the recent, public sniping between Schumer and McConnell, it also threatened to return the nation’s capital to the fiscal precipice once their short-term solution runs out in perhaps six weeks. The prospect of a new looming deadline risked reigniting the same political and procedural headaches that had brought the Senate less than two weeks from a default in the first place.

 

Click on the link for the full article

 

That's just kicking the can down the road, and not very far down the road.  

[China]

House Democrat calls for taking away debt limit authority from Congress

 

A House Democrat on Wednesday called for a "long-term solution" to the impasse over avoiding a debt default later this month in the form of taking the near-annual fight out of the hands of members of Congress altogether.

 

Senate Democrats indicated earlier Wednesday that they will likely accept an offer from Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) to raise the debt limit for two months to prevent a potential economic crisis.

 

Rep. Brendan Boyle (D-Pa.), along with House Budget Committee Chairman John Yarmuth (D-Ky.), introduced legislation last week that would transfer the duty of raising the debt limit from Congress to the secretary of the Treasury so that lawmakers wouldn't have to repeatedly fight over preventing a catastrophic default anymore. 

 

"While I welcome this change in stance from Sen. McConnell, we need a long-term solution to our debt ceiling dysfunction. It’s time to end the debt limit as we know it," Boyle tweeted Wednesday.

 

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has warned that the U.S. is on track to default on its debts by Oct. 18 without congressional action.

 

Last week she endorsed the idea of abolishing the federal debt limit, arguing that the Treasury Department should be able to ensure it can pay for existing spending obligations already enacted by Congress and the president.

 

"I believe it's very destructive to the president and myself, the Treasury secretary, in the situation where we might be unable to pay the bills that result from those past decisions," Yellen said in testimony before the House Financial Services Committee. 

 

Click on the link for the full article

[LD0506]

[Cooked Crack]

 

[EmirOfShmo]

We stayed overnight at a hotel in Charlottesville on a Saturday last month the day after the UVA/Wake Forest football game. The bartender told us they can only get 50-60% capacity because they have very few housekeepers & kitchen staff. The food menu is so light they can't get people to eat in the hotel. 

[Captain Wiggles]

Quote

Unemployment aid was not the big factor holding people back

 

Duh

 

The whole "welfare queen" narrative of the GOP is so tiresome. Lack of affordable childcare and low pay seem to be the main causes of unemployment atm. Understandably so.

[China]

World leaders reach landmark deal on a global corporate tax rate

 

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development on Friday announced a major breakthrough on corporate tax rates, after years of disagreement.

 

The group of developed nations agreed to a global minimum corporate tax rate of 15%. This marks a huge shift for smaller economies, such as the Republic of Ireland, which have attracted international firms — to a large extent — via a lower tax rate.

 

“The landmark deal, agreed by 136 countries and jurisdictions representing more than 90% of global GDP, will also reallocate more than USD 125 billion of profits from around 100 of the world’s largest and most profitable MNEs to countries worldwide, ensuring that these firms pay a fair share of tax wherever they operate and generate profits,” the OECD said in a statement Friday.

 

The breakthrough comes after some changes were made to the original text, notably that the rate of 15% will not be increased at a later date, and that small businesses will not be hit with the new rates.

 

This helped Ireland — a longtime opponent of raising corporate tax rates — to get on board with the plan.

 

Hungary, another long-term skeptic about a global tax deal, also changed its mind after receiving reassurances there will be a lengthy implementation period.

 

Countries now have to work out some outstanding details so the new deal is ready to kick in during 2023.

 

The agreement is “a once-in-a-generation accomplishment for economic diplomacy,” U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said in a statement.

 

Yellen applauded the many nations who “decided to end the race to the bottom on corporate taxation,” and expressed hope that Congress will use the reconciliation process to quickly put the deal into practice in the U.S.

 

Click on the link for the full article

[China]

NYC drug store shelves are left empty at CVS, Duane Reade and Walgreens due to mounting supply chain crisis

 

Shelves in pharmacies across New York City have been left nearly barren because supplies are not getting through amid an ongoing global squeeze. 

 

Stores such as CVS, Walgreens and Duane Reade are all running very low on goods.

 

 

 

 

Supplies are being held up on cargo ships that are taking up to four weeks to dock at US ports.

A lack of manpower to unload them and to drive goods around the US is causing a giant backlog.

 

Experts have warned the government to intervene or face spiraling inflation and unemployment, as rocketing demand for goods in short supply pushes their prices up.

 

US consumers have already seen prices of everyday items rise in recent months, with economists warning of an extended period of inflation that will push up the cost of living.  

 

Click on the link for the full article

[LD0506]

[Springfield]

I just don’t see any way that this ends well. I see vacancies across pretty much every industry. Inova has a nursing shortage, every service industry faces an employment shortage, teaching shortage, bus driver shortage, etc. I don’t think the answer is as simple as “pay them more” and I don’t see it getting any better.

 

I think we will have to deal with poor service across the board and increasing prices with a greater scarcity of goods. It’s probably going to get worse and I doubt it ever gets better.

[Hersh]

15 minutes ago, Springfield said:

I just don’t see any way that this ends well. I see vacancies across pretty much every industry. Inova has a nursing shortage, every service industry faces an employment shortage, teaching shortage, bus driver shortage, etc. I don’t think the answer is as simple as “pay them more” and I don’t see it getting any better.

 

I think we will have to deal with poor service across the board and increasing prices with a greater scarcity of goods. It’s probably going to get worse and I doubt it ever gets better.

people are tired of dealing with assholes. 

[Springfield]

2 hours ago, Hersh said:

people are tired of dealing with assholes. 

 
Asshole bosses, asshole clients. Assholes at both ends.

[Springfield]

I just don’t see how this gets fixed. How much can we realistically pay people to bus tables, work as nurses, school bus drivers, help customers at a Best Buy, work stocking shelves at a grocery store?

 

We are reaching a point where there are two different class and they’re being more stratified daily.

 

Youve got this class of workers who get every holiday off imaginable, gets to work from

home, has a plenty of up amount of PTO, lots of benefits. Then there’s another class of blue collar workers who’s jobs rely of them being at their place of employment, waiting on people who treat them with little to no respect, no PTO, etc. This group largely resents that WFH, pandemic didn’t hurt their pocketbook class.

[Hersh]

1 hour ago, Springfield said:

I just don’t see how this gets fixed. How much can we realistically pay people to bus tables, work as nurses, school bus drivers, help customers at a Best Buy, work stocking shelves at a grocery store?

 

We are reaching a point where there are two different class and they’re being more stratified daily.

 

Youve got this class of workers who get every holiday off imaginable, gets to work from

home, has a plenty of up amount of PTO, lots of benefits. Then there’s another class of blue collar workers who’s jobs rely of them being at their place of employment, waiting on people who treat them with little to no respect, no PTO, etc. This group largely resents that WFH, pandemic didn’t hurt their pocketbook class.

better benefits to start. We need healthcare for all and 4 day work weeks. 

[skinsmarydu]

Healthcare would be a fantastic start.  I wouldn't be freaked out about hundreds of thousands of dollars worth of bills if one of my stupid governor's nutbag lovers decides to sneeze on me.  The restaurant biz is nasty enough without a pandemic. 

[PeterMP]

I guess I don't understand the talk about unemployment that seems to suggest it is not good.  The U-6 is 8.5%.  Since we've started collecting U-6 data in 1993, there have only been 97 months with a lower U-6 and the average is 10.4%.  That means 70+% of the time the U-6 have been higher than it is now.

 

U-3 is similar.  It is 4.8%.  The historical average going back to the 1930 is 5.8%.  It has only been lower in 150 months out of 885 months that we have data for.  Only about 17% of months have had lower unemployment since we've had data.

 

Are we at full unemployment?  No.

 

But by any reasonable measure based on the historical data unemployment is low.  I'm not sure why if you were the Biden administration you wouldn't focus on that.  

 

(Wage growth is another issue.)

[China]

22 hours ago, China said:

NYC drug store shelves are left empty at CVS, Duane Reade and Walgreens due to mounting supply chain crisis

 

Shelves in pharmacies across New York City have been left nearly barren because supplies are not getting through amid an ongoing global squeeze. 

 

Stores such as CVS, Walgreens and Duane Reade are all running very low on goods.

 

Supplies are being held up on cargo ships that are taking up to four weeks to dock at US ports.

A lack of manpower to unload them and to drive goods around the US is causing a giant backlog.

 

Experts have warned the government to intervene or face spiraling inflation and unemployment, as rocketing demand for goods in short supply pushes their prices up.

 

US consumers have already seen prices of everyday items rise in recent months, with economists warning of an extended period of inflation that will push up the cost of living.  

 

Click on the link for the full article

 

Kraft Heinz says people must get used to higher food prices

 

People will have to get used to higher food prices, the boss of Kraft Heinz has told the BBC.

 

Miguel Patricio said the international food giant, which makes tomato sauce and baked beans, was putting up prices in several countries.

 

Unlike in previous years, he said, inflation was "across the board".

 

The cost of ingredients such as cereals and oils has pushed global food prices to a 10-year high, according to the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation.

 

Kraft Heinz has increased prices on more than half its products in the US, its home market, and Mr Patricio admitted that is happening elsewhere too.

 

"We are raising prices, where necessary, around the world," he said.

 

During the pandemic, many countries saw production of raw materials, ranging from crops to vegetable oils, fall. Measures to control the virus, as well as illness, limited output and delivery.

 

As economies have restarted the supply of these products hasn't been able to keep up with returning demand, leading to higher prices. Higher wages and energy prices have also added to the burden for manufacturers.

 

Click on the link for the full article

[Simmsy]

17 hours ago, Springfield said:

 
Asshole bosses, asshole clients. Assholes at both ends.

The dreaded "double sided asshole"!

 

Yeah, I hear some old ass, boomer drop the "they don't want to work" line all the time. I don't debate anymore, I just say something along the lines of "people don't want to work for assholes for asshole wages" and leave it at that.

[Larry]

19 minutes ago, Simmsy said:

The dreaded "double sided asshole"!

 

Yeah, I hear some old ass, boomer drop the "they don't want to work" line all the time. I don't debate anymore, I just say something along the lines of "people don't want to work for assholes for asshole wages" and leave it at that.

My take is even simpler. 
 

There is a (long overdue) negotiation taking place right now. 
 

Among other things, it's interesting (but not surprising) to see the people who are urging the government to get involved (on one particular side). 

[China]

On 10/10/2021 at 1:06 PM, China said:

NYC drug store shelves are left empty at CVS, Duane Reade and Walgreens due to mounting supply chain crisis

 

Shelves in pharmacies across New York City have been left nearly barren because supplies are not getting through amid an ongoing global squeeze. 

 

Stores such as CVS, Walgreens and Duane Reade are all running very low on goods.

 

Supplies are being held up on cargo ships that are taking up to four weeks to dock at US ports.

A lack of manpower to unload them and to drive goods around the US is causing a giant backlog.

 

Experts have warned the government to intervene or face spiraling inflation and unemployment, as rocketing demand for goods in short supply pushes their prices up.

 

US consumers have already seen prices of everyday items rise in recent months, with economists warning of an extended period of inflation that will push up the cost of living.  

 

Click on the link for the full article

 

Grocery store shelves aren't going back to normal this year

 

If you hoped grocery stores this fall and winter would look like they did in the Before Times, with limitless options stretching out before you in the snack, drink, candy and frozen foods aisles, get ready for some disappointing news.

 

Many of the country's biggest food makers are telling grocers that they will have limited quantities of a number of their products, including items such as Rice Krispies Treats, Sour Patch Kids, some Ben & Jerry's ice cream flavors, McCormick gourmet spices and Marie Callender's pot pies because of labor, commodity and transportation constraints throttling supply chains, according to emails viewed by CNN and interviews with grocers. Some suppliers are also telling grocers to cancel their promotions of these items and more over the holidays so products won't disappear from store shelves as quickly.

These latest limits mean that stores won't have all things for all customers heading into the holidays, and shoppers may not be able to find some of their favorite products, flavors or niche items. But shoppers will still have plenty of options, including most of these companies' core products, which they are prioritizing over items in less demand — meaning, for instance, that if you're a fan of Ben & Jerry's popular Phish Food, you shouldn't have a problem, but the company's less-well known Cold Brew Caramel Latte might be harder to find.

Major food and consumer product manufacturers being short of supply on some items "will be a challenge in the grocery industry" in the final months of the year, said Steve Howard, vice president of merchandising at Bristol Farms, a grocery chain in California. Suppliers are warning the company of "potential shortages" of foods, glass jars and packaging containers. In response, Bristol Farms is working to bring in inventory "earlier than any other holiday ever," Howard said.

 

Click on the link for the full article