The State of the Economy Thread - “Falling inflation, rising growth give U.S. the world’s best recovery”

[tshile]

43 minutes ago, TryTheBeal! said:

Who says we’re at the top of the bubble?  If you’re saying that...then it should be very clear to all concerned that this absolutely isn’t the case.

That was the original post where it was bolder that this is all an economic cycle. 
 

everyone else is talking about the start of a recovery and we’re over here entertaining an argument that it’s a 100% bubble ready to pop. 
 

look, sound economic discussions have never really materialized with this one. Remember when the cure was worse than the disease? 

[CousinsCowgirl84]

12 minutes ago, tshile said:

 

 and we’re over here entertaining an argument that it’s a 100% bubble ready to pop. 

 

 

never said that.
 

 

12 minutes ago, tshile said:

look, sound economic discussions have never really materialized with this one. Remember when the cure was worse than the disease? 

 

I never said it was. I said it had the potential to be. And that we should consider that. 

[Captain Wiggles]

1 hour ago, CousinsCowgirl84 said:

 Probably less than you imagine. My net on renting two properties is around 300/mo. 

 

 

Uh ya might wanna think about raising the rent if that's the case cuz it reads like you're doing it wrong. 🤔

[CousinsCowgirl84]

2 minutes ago, clietas said:

 

Uh ya might wanna think about raising the rent if that's the case cuz it reads like you're doing it wrong. 🤔

I must be a philanthropist. I feel like a lot of people here aren’t land lords telling land lords how good they have it lol.

[TradeTheBeal!]

Where’s that dancing goalposts gif when you need it?

[Captain Wiggles]

13 minutes ago, CousinsCowgirl84 said:

I must be a philanthropist. I feel like a lot of people here aren’t land lords telling land lords how good they have it lol.

 

I rent out a fairly large commercial property in a central business district. 🤷‍♂️

 

Are your property taxes or insurance crazy high? $300 a month from two properties hardly seems worth the trouble.

 

[CousinsCowgirl84]

Commercial property is different from residential property for several reasons. I can list them if you like.

[Captain Wiggles]

1 minute ago, CousinsCowgirl84 said:

Commercial property is different from residential property for several reasons. I can list them if you like.

 

I understand. That's why I'm asking. 😬

 

[tshile]

1 hour ago, clietas said:

 

Uh ya might wanna think about raising the rent if that's the case cuz it reads like you're doing it wrong. 🤔

 

58 minutes ago, CousinsCowgirl84 said:

I must be a philanthropist. I feel like a lot of people here aren’t land lords telling land lords how good they have it lol.

i am not a landlord but know quite a few. Some family and some friends. 
 

on a monthly basis no you don’t really make that much. 
 

where you make money is holding a long term investment someone else is paying for. 
 

if things break wrong every now and then you’ll dump more into it than you make in a few months - maybe it needs all new appliances or just a complete makeover from a previous tenant. But it’s not like you’re buying top tier stuff - but it does get expensive. The people I know who do it took the time to get licensed in various things - electric, plumber, Hvac. And they spread it amongst their group of friends. So one guy will do Hvac for the group for cheap and another will do the plumbing. Everyone invests in contributing to the group, everyone gets access to cheap basic labor in a pinch. 
 

but generally speaking you’re not making much per month. Enough to cover taxes, basic things, and emergency work; if you get 6 months of no problems then yeah you got some extra walking around money. 

if you can get a tenant that lives there for 5 years and never has an issue then you’re golden on that one. But that’s... that’s rare. 

 

but the real value is in long term investment as well as having an asset for collateral to expand your landlordship. 
 

which is why I was so against the eviction moratorium with no care for the land lords. I realize it’s easy and fun to rip on land lords but a lot of them are normal people with normal jobs who scraped enough money together to try to invest in something big for themselves and then work their assess off to make it happen. 
 

they’re not all sleazy property management companies with some super wealthy owner who’s just diversifying his investment portfolio. 

39 minutes ago, clietas said:

Are your property taxes or insurance crazy high? $300 a month from two properties hardly seems worth the trouble.

Unless you’re renting to section 8 and the check is always on time, always the right amount, and always clears, and you’re sitting on a property outside of dc for 30 years. 
 

then it’s 300/month for 30 years plus hundreds and hundreds of thousands when you finally let it go. 
 

its not a bad way for a ‘normal’ person to make an investment if they’ll do that work. 
 

just don’t forget to pay the taxes. Watche done do that one time - takeover and set pricing and then realize they didn’t factor in taxes 😂 

Edited April 6, 2021 by tshile

[Captain Wiggles]

Everything ya just posted is applicable to commercial as well tho. At least in my experience. 

 

$150 a month tho off one rental property? I make that renting out one parking space.  😬

[tshile]

2 minutes ago, clietas said:

Everything ya just posted is applicable to commercial as well tho. At least in my experience. 

 

$150 a month tho off one rental property? I make that renting out one parking space.  😬

Most people I know are dealing with lower income rentals. There’s some control there me other issues. 
 

I have no idea what they would make on top tier (or even close) rentals. 

[Captain Wiggles]

11 minutes ago, tshile said:

Most people I know are dealing with lower income rentals. There’s some control there me other issues. 
 

I have no idea what they would make on top tier (or even close) rentals. 

 

My BFFs lady friend has two rental properties. One in NOVA the other in Florida. $2500 a month is basically what she rents each of them out for. She's making a lot more than $150 a month.

 

I could prolly get close to that for my townhouse here in NC honestly. My neighborhood isn't ritzy but properties don't stay on the market long here.

 

 

[CousinsCowgirl84]

51 minutes ago, clietas said:

Everything ya just posted is applicable to commercial as well tho. At least in my experience. 

 

$150 a month tho off one rental property? I make that renting out one parking space.  😬

commerical rentals you do not have to provide maintenance. It is easier to evict them. You get higher rent per square foot for commercial than residential.

 

on one of my properties rent is 1600 and the mortgage is 1650 (but that is a 15 year mortgage) and then the other is $1450 with an $1150 mortgage.

Edited April 6, 2021 by CousinsCowgirl84

[CousinsCowgirl84]

1 minute ago, CousinsCowgirl84 said:

1 hour ago, tshile said:

 

i am not a landlord but know quite a few. Some family and some friends. 
 

on a monthly basis no you don’t really make that much. 
 

where you make money is holding a long term investment someone else is paying for. 

 

 

all true.

 

1 hour ago, tshile said:

 

 

but the real value is in long term investment as well as having an asset for collateral to expand your landlordship. 

 

Yes. But back to my point, that doesn’t work out when you are paying top tier prices for mid range properties. Because the mortgage payment will end up being above or even with the rent you could hope to collect.  A rich person who is looking to invest probably doesn’t find the housing market that attractive right now. (Bit of course their are people still investing, I just don’t think that is the main driver of the higher prices, which was what @TryTheBeal! was saying).

 

 

 

 

1 hour ago, tshile said:

 

which is why I was so against the eviction moratorium with no care for the land lords. I realize it’s easy and fun to rip on land lords but a lot of them are normal people with normal jobs who scraped enough money together to try to invest in something big for themselves and then work their assess off to make it happen.

 

 

@TryTheBeal! thinks landlords are the super rich 1 percent 🙄

 

 

 

[Captain Wiggles]

18 minutes ago, CousinsCowgirl84 said:

commerical rentals you do not have to provide maintenance.

 

Depends on the lease. For example tenants aint paying for my HVAC, plumbing, roofing, or electrical repairs. That's my responsibility. 

 

Uh yeah it definitely reads like you should raise the rent.

18 minutes ago, CousinsCowgirl84 said:

It is easier to evict them.

 

Eh not really. I still gotta deal with the Sheriffs office. 

 

Also in the state of NC a tenant can abandon the lease at any point. Leaving the landlord responsible for finding a new tenant. 

Edited April 6, 2021 by clietas

[CousinsCowgirl84]

3 minutes ago, clietas said:

 

Depends on the lease. For example tenants aint paying for my HVAC, plumbing, or electrical repairs. That's my responsibility. 
 

 

Yes. It depends on the lease.  Residential it does not depend on the release. You have to pay for all that. All the time. And you have to bring your house up be new code periodically. 

 

3 minutes ago, clietas said:

 

Uh yeah it definitely reads like you should raise the rent.
 

 

I’m charging market rate.  I coulda gotten a little more if I listed it on Zillow.
 

3 minutes ago, clietas said:

 

Eh not really. I still gotta deal with the Sheriffs office. 
 

 

Try to evict a residential tenet then we can talk. A dude took me to court to get his security deposit back after leaving the house full of trash, so much trash that it filled up the entire front yard, literally. He didn’t win, that’s still about 10 hours of my life I’m not getting back.

 

[Captain Wiggles]

You really think that commerical property owners don't have to deal with ****ty tenants, maintenance, and local codes? 🙄

 

 

 

 

[CousinsCowgirl84]

7 minutes ago, clietas said:

You really think that commerical property owners don't have to deal with ****ty tenants, maintenance, and local codes? 🙄

 

I think it is easier to deal with. For instance there was no eviction moratorium for commercial tenants...

Edited April 6, 2021 by CousinsCowgirl84

[Captain Wiggles]

Love the title change. 🤣🤣🤣🤣

 

[mcsluggo]

i just looked at zilow at the "estimated rent for my house, and the estimated value.   

 

if you put 100k down for my house, and then got a 30 year fixed at 4%... your monthly mortgage payment alone would be $500 MORE than the expected rent.    (that is without even paying taxes, much less ANY other expenses) 

 

how the hell does that work?

[Captain Wiggles]

Zillow ain't so accurate. It overestimates a lot of property values and underestimates the rent value. 

 

Townhouses in my area that aren't even updated rent for like $2k a month. Zillow estimates mine would go for like $1200. Studio apartments rent for more than that here.

Edited April 7, 2021 by clietas

[LD0506]

Ummmm, nothing like a good real estate debate topic get your juices flowin in the morning..........

 

For whatever reasons prices have (hypothetically) jumped around here recently, some of the neighbors look at Zillow and swoon at the thought of a sellout. It is to laugh. It's all very ephemeral, only the first couple sellers make out before the crowd rushes in and screws things up, and then you still have to have somewhere to live and you're out there buying into bubbly prices.

 

Right now if I wanted to fix it up to sell I could probably get roughly twice what we paid ten years ago. I have no intention of doing that and just keep chipping away at getting it changed to suit our tastes and needs in a location that would be hard to duplicate without moving far away. Yeah, materials prices are up but since I do the vast majority of the work myself I still offset labor costs which tend to be the bulk of remodeling costs. I can say this, our mortgage is about $600+/month plus less than a two BR rental in the vicinity.

 

But I just know some of our neighbors are going to get taken by RE hucksters and it is going to mess up the vibe around here.

[tshile]

There really isnt any value in selling in a bubble unless your exiting the market. Whether that’s because you’re moving away or you’re getting out of the home owner business (and not just temporarily to play some market timing game waiting for prices to fall, which I just gave a buddy the lecture on last week...)

 

the only exception would be equity and lucking out in long term planning. We moved 2 minutes away during the return of the latest peak. But we had purchased and paid off property years earlier. And we had a ton of equity in what we owned. So we moved from a 2300 sqft house on 1/5 acre in a cookie cutter community to a 5k sqft house on multiple acres, and our mortgage went up about 800$ a month. That’s taxes, insurance, interest everything not just principal. And our mortgage is right around what a nice 2 br apartment would rent for. 
 

I view equity as funny money unless you’re going to actually do something with it. So we basically took all the money we “earned” that’s only real if you sell, and used it to buy down a mortgage on a significant upgrade of a house. So I feel like we got something tangible for our funny money that we otherwise couldn’t touch without either buying back into a bubble, renting, or moving away.  But we lucked out in timing. 
 

otherwise generally speaking you’re better off just sitting put. 
 

if you have a reason to upgrade (growing family?) then yeah do what you need to. But investment wise there isn’t much of a win by selling in a bubble then buying in the same bubble...

 

i guess you could argue that you could go from having say 200k invested in something you think is a good investment to having like 450k invested in something you think is a good investment. So if you’re right, and it is a good investment, your profits will be higher. But there’s a cost to that... there’d be lots of math to do and hard critiquing of the options and the market you’re in. 

Edited April 7, 2021 by tshile

[TheDoyler23]

40 minutes ago, tshile said:

There really isnt any value in selling in a bubble unless your exiting the market. Whether that’s because you’re moving away or you’re getting out of the home owner business (and not just temporarily to play some market timing game waiting for prices to fall, which I just gave a buddy the lecture on last week...)

 

I'm lucky enough to have sold last summer and not needed to buy at the same time. If only I could have waited a few more months, but oh well! I looked at what could happen the first of 2020 and didn't want to hold. My risk aversion is probably why all my investments are boring! 

[EmirOfShmo]

I talked to a neighbor last night about housing prices. He's been in the mortgage lending business for 25+ years at some of the bigger banks. He's at Fannie Mae now. He said the 90-day delinquencies were very high & he expects this to pop sooner than later. We got distracted when some other people joined us so I didn't get a chance to get more details on the delinquencies.