The State of the Economy Thread - “Falling inflation, rising growth give U.S. the world’s best recovery”

[TradeTheBeal!]

The inside word in the Biz is that production will start to match demand no sooner than Summer 22 and a return to pre-COVID normalcy (perpetual dealer overstock/$5k rebates/0% for 72 mos/etc) will occur no sooner than Summer 23.  This will vary greatly by manufacturer.

 

The reverberations on used car values will extend for several years, I think.

Edited December 14, 2021 by TryTheBeal!

[Larry]

 

[TheDoyler23]

1 hour ago, CousinsCowgirl84 said:

If you put the 80 dollars it cost to buy a oil pen (I’m assuming you only buy one a month, but come on, I know you buy more than that), the 16 dollars it costs for a Netflix account, the 10 dollars it costs for Amazon prime, and the extra 35/mo you spend to Doordash your food instead of cooking or picking it up into a savings account it would take a little under three years.

 

*you not directed any one in particular*

 

That scenario assumes that one makes enough to be in the plus category, budget (and have the means) for significant additional things like new tires for their car, and that no substantial unexpected expenses occur in those three years. Tough task for most Americans. 

[GoCommiesGo]

9 minutes ago, TheDoyler23 said:

That scenario assumes that one makes enough to be in the plus category, budget (and have the means) for significant additional things like new tires for their car, and that no substantial unexpected expenses occur in those three years. Tough task for most Americans. 

 

I find it interesting how people don't connect their circumstances to surrounding areas. This is an older study but I always found this be amazing.  

 

My wife and I struggled for awhile when we first got married. People that have never had to juggle which bills to pay late and what food they can buy don't understand the stress that causes. The answer to just cut down on excess is beyond condescending and insulting. Being poor in the US is expensive. 

 

It took years for us to be able to get to where we are now and I'll never forget the times we struggled.   

 

 

FEMA - Saving

Quote

Research paints a compelling picture of the link between financial wellness and disaster preparedness. We also know that emergency savings make a big difference in helping families recover more quickly after disasters. However, a 2017 Federal Reserve report found 40 percent of adults would not have the cash readily available if faced with a $400 emergency expense. Additionally, a 2017 survey by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation found that 8.4 million households in the United States have neither a checking nor savings account.

[CousinsCowgirl84]

16 minutes ago, TheDoyler23 said:

 

That scenario assumes that one makes enough to be in the plus category, budget (and have the means) for significant additional things like new tires for their car, and that no substantial unexpected expenses occur in those three years. Tough task for most Americans. 

Got to start somewhere. Worse case cutting all of that out would give you the money to deal with that $400 dollar emergency in about three months. Still better than having to deal with the emergencies using a credit card….

Edited December 14, 2021 by CousinsCowgirl84

[gbear]

I must admit the smartest thing I ever did from a personal finance standpoint was to create an "Oh $h1t!" fund.  Putting a few dollars a week into it got me to the point where I could pay for bigger purchases that save money over the repeated smaller purchases and got me enough money to deal with life's expected unexpected expenses (meaning something will happen even if I don't know what or when).   Creating that fund and paying into it is the advice I give every young person when it comes to finances.  It saddens me how few manage to do it.  

 

 

 

 

[CousinsCowgirl84]

1 hour ago, GoSkinsGo said:

I see the bootstraps have come out early this morning. 

 

I'm assuming you've never been poor and had to juggle groceries vs. electricity. 

There is a percentage of poor people that honestly can’t cut out anything and are really struggling.
 

That isn’t the 40 percent of Americans that can’t afford a 400 dollar surprise bill though. 

[TheGreatBuzz]

4 hours ago, TryTheBeal! said:

The inside word in the Biz is that production will start to match demand no sooner than Summer 22 and a return to pre-COVID normalcy (perpetual dealer overstock/$5k rebates/0% for 72 mos/etc) will occur no sooner than Summer 23.  This will vary greatly by manufacturer.

 

The reverberations on used car values will extend for several years, I think.

 

The amount of calls/emails I get from dealers that want to buy my truck (2020 Ram 3500) is ridiculous.  They all talk about how they can offer $X above blue book.  Do they think I don't realize that however much they can offer me won't offset the above book price I will have to pay to replace it?  In no way do I see now as a good time to trade in for a new vehicle.  The only people I see as the current situation being good for are the few that have a vehicle to sell that they don't need to replace.

[Larry]

3 minutes ago, TheGreatBuzz said:

 

The amount of calls/emails I get from dealers that want to buy my truck (2020 Ram 3500) is ridiculous.  They all talk about how they can offer $X above blue book.  Do they think I don't realize that however much they can offer me won't offset the above book price I will have to pay to replace it?  In no way do I see now as a good time to trade in for a new vehicle.  The only people I see as the current situation being good for are the few that have a vehicle to sell that they don't need to replace.

Sounds kind of like the dilemma of "real estate prices are high!  You should sell now!"

 

The problem is, if you sell in the bubble market, then you have to buy in the bubble, too. 
 

(The fact that the "You should sell now" advice is coming from people who make their living off of churn makes me skeptical, too.)

[steve09ru]

12 minutes ago, TheGreatBuzz said:

 

The amount of calls/emails I get from dealers that want to buy my truck (2020 Ram 3500) is ridiculous.  They all talk about how they can offer $X above blue book.  Do they think I don't realize that however much they can offer me won't offset the above book price I will have to pay to replace it?  In no way do I see now as a good time to trade in for a new vehicle.  The only people I see as the current situation being good for are the few that have a vehicle to sell that they don't need to replace.

We went this route with my wife's 2021 Tahoe Z71 (about 2k more than mrsp when we bought it new)- she got a promotion so no longer working from home so it made sense for her to get something better on gas while also reducing monthly payment but a couple hundred.

6 minutes ago, Larry said:

Sounds kind of like the dilemma of "real estate prices are high!  You should sell now!"

 

The problem is, if you sell in the bubble market, then you have to buy in the bubble, too. 
 

(The fact that the "You should sell now" advice is coming from people who make their living off of churn makes me skeptical, too.)

Yeah, only way to sell now is if you can afford to rent short for a year or so until correction.  The other thing is that this isn't necessarily a bubble of past magnitudes so a correction is due but don't anticipate it to be substantial like before.

[TheDoyler23]

5 hours ago, gbear said:

I must admit the smartest thing I ever did from a personal finance standpoint was to create an "Oh $h1t!" fund. ...  Creating that fund and paying into it is the advice I give every young person when it comes to finances.  It saddens me how few manage to do it.  

 

I work with high school students in the summer and spend an entire day on financial literacy (Credit, interest, investing, taxes, etc.) It's usually one of those lightbulb days for these kids. 

 

Pre-pandemic, I did have one tell me that I didn't know what I was talking about and he was still going to buy that Hellcat! OOF. 

 

 

[CousinsCowgirl84]

The flip side of selling when the market is hot and having to pay a high price for a house is that when the market is low you might pay a lower price but also you will get a lower price for your house. So I wouldn’t make a decision to buy or sell based on the market.  Even if you a first time buyer waiting for a market crash doesn’t make a lot of sense if you have a choice.

[TradeTheBeal!]

2 hours ago, TheGreatBuzz said:

 

The amount of calls/emails I get from dealers that want to buy my truck (2020 Ram 3500) is ridiculous.  They all talk about how they can offer $X above blue book.  Do they think I don't realize that however much they can offer me won't offset the above book price I will have to pay to replace it?  In no way do I see now as a good time to trade in for a new vehicle.  The only people I see as the current situation being good for are the few that have a vehicle to sell that they don't need to replace.

That…and people that may be forced to downsize.  Illness/Layoffs/etc…Flipping that sweet Ram to cover your note/end your payments, getting a clean used Sonata to daily at 1/3 the payment, AND getting a check for $10K might be pretty appealing to some folks.

 

Plus 35 mpg!!

[TheGreatBuzz]

4 hours ago, TryTheBeal! said:

That…and people that may be forced to downsize.  Illness/Layoffs/etc…Flipping that sweet Ram to cover your note/end your payments, getting a clean used Sonata to daily at 1/3 the payment, AND getting a check for $10K might be pretty appealing to some folks.

 

Plus 35 mpg!!

Good point.  Too bad I need that truck to tow my home around.

[Jabbyrwock]

9 minutes ago, TheGreatBuzz said:

Good point.  Too bad I need that truck to tow my home around.

 

With a little imagination we can get that sonata to pull your house

 

 

...might not get that full 35 mpg tho.

[TradeTheBeal!]

19 minutes ago, TheGreatBuzz said:

Good point.  Too bad I need that truck to tow my home around.

Yo, DM me if you change your mind!

[TheGreatBuzz]

5 minutes ago, TryTheBeal! said:

Yo, DM me if you change your mind!

Haha.  Will do but if I decide to get another vehicle, I doubt it will be a Mazda.  Thanks though.

[tshile]

9 hours ago, TheGreatBuzz said:

Do they think I don't realize that however much they can offer me won't offset the above book price I will have to pay to replace it?

Kind of depends. new prices aren’t that much more at least not at what I looked at. It’s more - you might not get it for 3 months. Or it might have certain parts missing cause that’s how they rolled it to the lot. 
 

weird time to be in the car market 

 

my 1500 is almost payed off

 

[Tedskins 21]

Man, the vote to raise the debt ceiling was a close one! /s 

 

I guess my money will be even more worthless now.

[CousinsCowgirl84]

33 minutes ago, Tedskins 21 said:

Man, the vote to raise the debt ceiling was a close one! /s 

 

I guess my money will be even more worthless now.

Imagine how even more worthless it would have been if the United States defaulted on its debts!?

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

I had a 2011 Titan that needed an exhaust system front to back and a transmission that just started leaking.  103k miles, so just past the after market warranty I had on it.  “We’ll buy your car” place gave me $15k for it, without even turning the key on it.  Took that and put it down on a 2021.  I got the new one for a few grand more than  2019 with 30k miles is going for.  I’ve always bought mildly used vehicles in the past, this is my first new vehicle.  It just didn’t make sense this time though with the used market being up so high.

[Tedskins 21]

4 hours ago, CousinsCowgirl84 said:

Imagine how even more worthless it would have been if the United States defaulted on its debts!?

 

Hyperinflation or recession?  Or both? 

[GoCommiesGo]

We sold our 2014 Wrangler Unlimited to a dealership for 3k less than we bought it for back in 2017. 

My step father turned in his leased Jeep Gladiator six months early. Dealer waived his remaining payments and gave him 4K to sweeten the deal. 
 

Car market is wild right now. 
 

Edited December 15, 2021 by GoSkinsGo

[EmirOfShmo]

In September, I bought a 2017 Pathfinder w/ 72k miles for $15.5k. Last I checked kbb private party sales it was 18-21k.

[tshile]

I paid 45k for my 2017 ram 1500 new 

it’s worth about 35k right now. It’s paid off in like 3 months. 
 

problem is I need a truck. So. Unless they’re gonna give me a new truck I can’t really do anything with this. 
 

it’s got like 60k miles on it. I should get another 5 years no problem. So even if there was something I wanted available I’m not gonna spend the money…

 

rather buy a boat  

Edited December 15, 2021 by tshile