2020 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[DazedSkinsfan]

I don't know if its going to happen because of the year hes having but if Jalen Hurts somehow falls to the 3rd round we should consider.  Someone said at best hes a poor man's Lamar Jackson but I think he is more comparable to Dak. The guy is built like a running back so hes durable.  I think with the right coaching he will make someone a pretty good quarterback 

[Est.1974]

I can still see Miami taking Tua with one of its later first round picks.

[Going Commando]

Justin Jefferson is the real deal.  He's been my favorite slot guy this year.  He has the kind of toughness and competitive character you're looking for in your receiver's room.  Him and McLaurin would a nice inside-outside combo.

 

Delpit has been awful this season.  He's clearly playing through some injuries, but with what he's shown on the field, I don't think you can take him in the first round.

 

On a larger note, the LSU defense has not been very good this year.  The front has some holes in it for sure, the linebacker play has been pretty terrible, particularly glaring issues with their alley defenders.  But the secondary has been more vulnerable than you'd expect from a group with like six future early round draft picks in it.  Fulton or Stingley or Vincent might star one game, but they haven't been putting together complete games as a unit.  That offense is as good as anyone in the country, but the defense is not championship caliber.

[Stadium-Armory]

I find it strange how wrong experts can be about judging QB talent. Remember all the talk about how Lamar Jackson should become a WR? Now look at him. How can so many football people be so wrong? It's almost as if it's a total guessing game.

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

10 minutes ago, Stadium-Armory said:

I find it strange how wrong experts can be about judging QB talent. Remember all the talk about how Lamar Jackson should become a WR? Now look at him. How can so many football people be so wrong? It's almost as if it's a total guessing game.

 

Coaching and organization matters more than we think.

 

Since 2008, the Patriots have won an absurd 77.8% of games with Tom Brady starting.

The next best team, are the Steelers, at 64.8%.

Then it's the Saints at 62.4%

 

But what about the games that Tom Brady didn't start?  There are 19 of them.  They won 68.4%.  Even without Brady, the Patriots backup QB's still led the team to a Win/Loss rate higher than any other team in the NFL.

 

Are those backup QB's good?  Well Jimmy G seems alright, he's still pretty inexperienced and raw at times though.  Cassell was hit or miss for awhile before failing out.  Jacoby Brissett was hit and miss back in 2017, but so far he's led his team to a 6-3 record when he's starting.  Coaching and a quality organization have turned several unheralded QB's (Brady was a 6th rounder, Jimmy G was a 2nd rounder, and Brissett was a 3rd rounder) into guys that their teams are happy with.

 

Ravens have some good coaches.  They really rolled the dice with an unorthodox gameplan around Lamar, but they had the coaching to help him develop within that gameplan and pull it off.  I'm of the opinion that Joe Flacco was an awful QB, and was destined to bust out of the NFL quickly.  But the Ravens turned him into someone who was kind of serviceable.  On almost every other team, coaching staff, etc, Flacco would have been a bust.

 

Andy Reid helped turn McNabb into a good QB.  He gave Alex Smith the best years of his career.  And so far Mahomes is an elite QB.  If Haskins had been drafted by Andy Reid, I'd feel more comfortable with his chances.

[Stadium-Armory]

2 minutes ago, Alcoholic Zebra said:

 

Coaching and organization matters more than we think.

 

 

That would make sense and we are another data point to support this notion (albeit in the opposite direction).

[TheGoodBits]

17 minutes ago, Stadium-Armory said:

I find it strange how wrong experts can be about judging QB talent. Remember all the talk about how Lamar Jackson should become a WR? Now look at him. How can so many football people be so wrong? It's almost as if it's a total guessing game.

 

So true. There are an ton of variables (scheme, surrounding talent, opposing talent, etc) that make it hard to evaluate a college QB. There are also a TON of variables that make it impossible to project how smoothly a college QB will transition to the NFL (scheme and surrounding talent being big here too). Unfortunately, top QBs are frequently drafted into bad situations, because their teams are bad.

 

Interestingly enough, looking back the past 5 years or so, the most successful QBs have been drafted outside the top 10 to teams that were decent but missing a QB to put them over the top. 

[Going Commando]

Lamar Jackson was a weird evaluation.  I guess he peaked too soon in Louisville, such that people were tired of talking about how good he was in that anticlimactic final season.  You had Baker Mayfield and DeShaun Watson putting up spectacular seasons and stealing his shine a little bit.  He might have gone higher if he'd been able to come out after he won the Heisman.

 

There is also a pronounced racial bias against dark-skinned black quarterbacks, and that certainly effected Jackson's evaluation.  Jackson fit a preconceived player type of black athlete moonlighting at the QB position for most draftniks/evaluators, I would say.  Some guys were better at seeing him for what he was than the majority.  I remember Louis Riddick loving what he showed as a pocket passer at Louisville in pro-style sets and concepts, but I don't think many people listened to him.

 

AZ is also 100% correct that organizational quality is everything in the successful development of QBs.  The Ravens are a high quality organization.  They drafted him with a vision for his role and they know how to commit to, develop, and support a QB.  The huge majority of NFL teams and coaches are ****ing trash at handling young QBs, they're one of the rare teams who aren't.

 

Specific to this year though, the Ravens are winning with the old as time formula of great defense and run game that is head and shoulders better than everyone else.  They had the #1 defense in the league last year, and it's still really damn good this year.  Especially against the pass.  And then their running game is awesome just like ours was in 2012, and it sets up the deep strike passing game.  They have a good offensive line and a lethal backfield in Jackson/Ingram.  Jackson is a sixth blocker on every run play where he hands the ball off, and a dynamic chain-moving threat when he keeps it in the same way RGIII was for us, and thus they easily win the numbers game on their runs.  And they've got two excellent TEs and a dynamic deep threat WR to exploit single coverage on the outside because it's hard to play brackets against a run game that can chew you up and bust chunk runs with demoralizing frequency.  It's a winning formula but the issue is that they're small.  Jackson is a slender player at the position and Brown is small.  Ingram has an extensive history of injury.  There are going to be seasons where the team doesn't do much because those guys are banged up.  But when they're all healthy like they are right now, we see dominance.

[Going Commando]

43 minutes ago, skinsfan_1215 said:

Interestingly enough, looking back the past 5 years or so, the most successful QBs have been drafted outside the top 10 to teams that were decent but missing a QB to put them over the top. 

 

AKA good organizations in a QB transition.  Teams with good coaches.  And in most cases, teams with fully built defenses that could offer a young QB a chance at early success and the ability to play through his mistakes and still win.  Same thing happened with Brady and Roethlisberger and Romo and Rivers.

 

When your team is losing and your offensive line falls apart and your defense is playing like crap, people get this irresistible impulse to become super myopic and tunnel in on the young QB and make every single snap a referendum on his quality, potential, and worthiness to start.  It's happening with Trubisky as we speak, and I can tell that it's about to start happening with Carson Wentz, Jared Goff, and Baker Mayfield too.  Be interesting to see if the worm has turned with Chicago and Cleveland in particular, and if they can stay the course and actually build something sustainable as franchises that have not been good or consistent in a long time.

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

 

WASHINGTON REDSKINS — OFFENSIVE LINE

With no more Trent Williams and Brandon Scherff hitting free agency, the Redskins offensive line went from strength to liability in the blink of an eye. Left tackle, left guard and right guard all need addressing. 

 

[HTTRDynasty]

^

27 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

WASHINGTON REDSKINS — OFFENSIVE LINE

With no more Trent Williams and Brandon Scherff hitting free agency, the Redskins offensive line went from strength to liability in the blink of an eye. Left tackle, left guard and right guard all need addressing. 

 

 

Honestly, I'd lean more towards their take on the Dolphins (except for QB).

 

MIAMI DOLPHINS — ANYWHERE

Talent at valuable positions should be the goal. Quarterback, offensive tackle, edge and cornerback could and should all be addressed. 

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

 

That's such good news, surgery was a success.  Correct me if I'm wrong, but wouldn't we know by now if the hip was having dead tissue and complications ala Bo Jackson?  Should he enter the draft?  Abso-****ing-lutely.  He almost had a career ending injury in college, it's time for him to get some money from this sport.

 

I don't think Tua falls out of the Top 3.

[PartyPosse]

3 minutes ago, Alcoholic Zebra said:

 

That's such good news, surgery was a success.  Correct me if I'm wrong, but wouldn't we know by now if the hip was having dead tissue and complications ala Bo Jackson?  Should he enter the draft?  Abso-****ing-lutely.  He almost had a career ending injury in college, it's time for him to get some money from this sport.

 

I don't think Tua falls out of the Top 3.

Depends on his rehab and if he is able to have a pro-day. I doubt he takes part in the combine.

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

3 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

Justin Jefferson is the real deal.  He's been my favorite slot guy this year.  He has the kind of toughness and competitive character you're looking for in your receiver's room.  Him and McLaurin would a nice inside-outside combo.

 

I feel like a draft usually has the best slot WR's go in the 2nd round.  Sometimes those WR's can project as maybe an 'X' or a 'Y' as well, in which case they might go at the top of the 2nd round.  But the NFL tends to only draft WR's in the 1st round who project as boundary guys.  I think that's a little short sighted as times, as some slot WR's can develop boundary versatility as well.  Michael Thomas and JuJu are guys who started as Slot only, but now line up equally everywhere.

 

If we trade back from our 1st round pick, and grab a 2nd rounder as well, someone like Justin Jefferson would look pretty tempting.

[Going Commando]

1 minute ago, Alcoholic Zebra said:

 

I feel like a draft usually has the best slot WR's go in the 2nd round.  Sometimes those WR's can project as maybe an 'X' or a 'Y' as well, in which case they might go at the top of the 2nd round.  But the NFL tends to only draft WR's in the 1st round who project as boundary guys.  I think that's a little short sighted as times, as some slot WR's can develop boundary versatility as well.  Michael Thomas and JuJu are guys who started as Slot only, but now line up equally everywhere.

  

 If we trade back from our 1st round pick, and grab a 2nd rounder as well, someone like Justin Jefferson would look pretty tempting.

 

I think second or early third round is his natural range.  You're right about the relative value of outside receivers vs inside guys and the reason is the difficulty of the matchups, and how much hard it is physically to win outside leverage against NFL press.  The release against NFL press is one of the biggest barriers to entry for college receivers coming into the league.  Much easier to start out in the slot.  IIRC, Michael Thomas was an outside receiver at Ohio State, so the potential to play that role was on tape.

 

I don't think Jefferson is going to run a fast forty or blow anyone away with the quickness he shows on tape, but he strikes me as the classic overachiever.  He is big for the position, physical, competitive, tough, and ultra reliable.  He's got some nice nuance in his vertical breaking routes and isn't typically bothered by physicality in the contact window.  And he has nice potential as a blocker.  The willingness and aggressiveness and the size are there to excel in that part of the position.  He's a blue collar receiver who reminds me of McLaurin in his clutchness and his football character.  (He's not going to run 4.3 though).

 

But the main trait to love about Jefferson is that he is going to haul in every junk pass you sling to him no matter where he is and who is around him, whereas even Chase will drop one when he's in traffic from time to time, and Chase is a top ten talent.  Jefferson's hands are great and he is a cold-blooded player who can tune out the noise and stay locked in.

 

I really want us to trade down to add picks in the 20-50 range of this class so we can move around and target some of these awesome receivers and corners.  Give me McLaurin and Harmon, give me Jefferson, and then give me a glider like DeVonta Smith or a specimen like Tee Higgins or one of the studs from the upcoming 2021 class.  That's the perfect mix of receivers IMO.  Put it together with Haskins and Guice and Love in the backfield.  Then find a couple of physical tight ends and rebuild the OL and you can turn this awful offense into a high-powered attack in like two more offseasons of work.

[KillBill26]

1 hour ago, Alcoholic Zebra said:

Should he enter the draft?  Abso-****ing-lutely.  He almost had a career ending injury in college, it's time for him to get some money from this sport.

 

I don't think Tua falls out of the Top 3.

He took an insurance policy out, so even if he drops in the draft, he is getting his money.  And I agree with you, when all is said and done, I believe tua is still one of the first ones off the board.  A lot has changed in the medical world since bo Jackson's days, I'm sure we will all hear about how tua is expected to make a full recovery, and tua will be limited in what he can show by April so there will be no way to see otherwise.  

[ExoDus84]

11 minutes ago, KillBill26 said:

He took an insurance policy out, so even if he drops in the draft, he is getting his money.  And I agree with you, when all is said and done, I believe tua is still one of the first ones off the board.  A lot has changed in the medical world since no Jackson's days, I'm sure we will all hear about how tua is expected to make a full recovery, and tua will be limited in what he can show by April so there will be no way to see otherwise.  

 

Its still a serious injury. Dennis PItta, the Ravens TE, dislocated his hip once, and then ended up dislocating it a few more times. His career was never the same after the initial injury. This was back in 2013-2014. For a QB, it might not be as bad because QB's aren't generally going to be subject to the same stresses a route running TE will be. However, the injury is still a significant one.

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

[HTTRDynasty]

22 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

I don't think Jefferson is going to run a fast forty or blow anyone away with the quickness he shows on tape, but he strikes me as the classic overachiever.  He is big for the position, physical, competitive, tough, and ultra reliable.  He's got some nice nuance in his vertical breaking routes and isn't typically bothered by physicality in the contact window.  And he has nice potential as a blocker.  The willingness and aggressiveness and the size are there to excel in that part of the position.  He's a blue collar receiver who reminds me of McLaurin in his clutchness and his football character.  (He's not going to run 4.3 though).

 

But the main trait to love about Jefferson is that he is going to haul in every junk pass you sling to him no matter where he is and who is around him, whereas even Chase will drop one when he's in traffic from time to time, and Chase is a top ten talent.  Jefferson's hands are great and he is a cold-blooded player who can tune out the noise and stay locked in.

 

I haven't watched him, but he seems like a Mohammed Sanu clone by your description.

[Skinned Aussie]

Sticking with tradition, the Redskins draft players who are injured, or prone to injury.  Putting them on IR to 'stockpile' only means we get to 'fix' them, then they want out.  Where else can one go to get 'free' medical treatment then go elsewhere to play?

[Warhead36]

4 hours ago, Alcoholic Zebra said:

 

Coaching and organization matters more than we think.

 

 

Ding ding mother effing ding.

 

So much of a QB's success comes down to the environment they're in.  Its why I always laugh when Bears fans whine WE COULD HAVE HAD MAHOMES/WATSON. Yeah because either of those guys would instantly be better in Chicago? The NFL doesn't work like that. Mahomes had the benefit of Andy Reid, arguably the best QB coach in the league(and one of the best EVER), to develop him.

 

Lamar Jackson went to the Ravens who are a top 5 organization in the league. If he went to like the Bengals or Jets he'd probably be labelled a bust already. Conversely I bet if you put Haskins with McVay or Reid or any other good coach he'd probably be at the very least a solid starting QB if not a perennial Pro Bowl guy.

 

There are some guys who are just special and can carry a franchise, like Peyton Manning, and some guys are gonna suck no matter what like Jamarcus Russell, but for the most part a QB's success is dependent on the organization around him.

[sportjunkie07]

5 hours ago, Stadium-Armory said:

I find it strange how wrong experts can be about judging QB talent. Remember all the talk about how Lamar Jackson should become a WR? Now look at him. How can so many football people be so wrong? It's almost as if it's a total guessing game.

Prime example of how important it is to build your game plan around your players. 

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

[kingdaddy]

The one area of the Skins organization that I do have some confidence in is their scouting dept. While they haven't been perfect I think they've made some great picks the past 2 drafts....Grab Young with our first and then trade back in every round to pick up more picks...Grab as many offensive linemen as we can. Fill in everywhere else in free agency.