The Washington Nationals Thread: The Future is Near!

[Warhead36]

The truth is: spending big bucks on one player is NOT the way to win in baseball(unless you're the Yankees or Dodgers because they operate in a different financial universe). Look at the individual great players:

 

Bonds didn't win in San Fran. He retires and a few years later they win three championships.

 

Griffey didn't win in Seattle. They actually won 100+ games after he left.

 

A-Rod didn't win in Texas. The Rangers made it to two World Series after he left. A-Rod didn't win until he joined a stacked Yankee roster.

 

Mike Trout hasn't won a single playoff game in LA. Harps didn't win anything here(granted he wasn't on a big contract yet but you get it).

 

Name a great individual player who won a championship after getting a HUGE contract who doesn't play for the Yankees or Dodgers. And even then, the Yankees haven't won since 2009, and the Dodgers only ring was in a pandemic shortened asterisk season.

 

Baseball isn't like football where a great QB can basically carry you by throwing the ball every play, or basketball where your star player can take every shot. The best hitter in your lineup still only gets 4, maybe 5 at bats a game. The impact is significantly less(relative to the other sports). And while Pitchers are much more impactful, they only pitch every five days. You could theoretically have the best P ever and still only win 20% of the time.

 

You're better off having a bunch of good to very good players, like we had in 2019(granted that team had Soto as well, but I don't think he was quite the superstar yet at that time only in his second year).

 

I hate dealing Soto. I hate losing a superstar who is only 23. But in the long run, if we want to win championships, it probably is the best move, even IF he would sign here for $600 Mil or whatever.

 

Nothing is guaranteed of course, and it'd be a lot easier to stomach all the losing if we had someone like Soto to watch everyday. But I don't want us to be the Giants in the Barry Bonds era or the Rangers in the A-Rod era. I wanna compete for championships.

[Riggo#44]

 

[Spaceman Spiff]

4 minutes ago, Ball Security said:

Watch Brett Phillips OPS over .900 for you guys.

 

No way, that guy can't hit for ****.   I almost threw the remote through the TV last week when we were playing Tampa and he hit a three run dinger.  Inexcusable.  

[Riggo#44]

1 minute ago, Spaceman Spiff said:

 

No way, that guy can't hit for ****.   I almost threw the remote through the TV last week when we were playing Tampa and he hit a three run dinger.  Inexcusable.  

I felt the same way every time Charlie Culbertson would bat against us.

 

Career: 248/.293/.382 .

Vs. Nats: .313/.352/.687

[EmirOfShmo]

The James Wood who’s part of the package the San Diego Padres sent to the Washington Nationals Tuesday in exchange for Juan Soto and Josh Bell  is the son of former University of Richmond basketball standout Kenny Wood.

UR Hall of Famer Wood (1990-93), who was a 6-foot-5 forward, scored 1,427 points to go with 717 rebounds. James Wood, a left-handed-hitting outfielder who’s 6-7 and 240 pounds, lived with his family in Olney, Md., and attended St. John’s College High School in Washington.

 

https://richmond.com/sports/college/richmond/the-james-wood-who-nats-acquired-is-son-of-former-spiders-hoops-star-kenny-wood/article_b284dc8d-7963-5a12-84ac-22018a5f65a5.html

[@DCGoldPants]

8 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

The truth is: spending big bucks on one player is NOT the way to win in baseball(unless you're the Yankees or Dodgers because they operate in a different financial universe).  

 

Yes, there is something to be said for this take. Doesn't make it feel better but short of a few examples, it's the teams that spend but across the roster. 

 

Should rename this thread "Washington Nationals - The Rebuild" now that it really feels like that now. 

[Riggo#44]

 

[Ball Security]

The Washington metropolitan area has the sixth highest population.  
 

There are eight MLB teams in the metropolitan areas ahead of Washington.

Washington has a 2% higher population than #7 Philadelphia, 4% higher population  than #8 Atlanta, 4% higher population than #9 Miami.

 

From 2013-2022, the Nationals have averaged between 8 and 9 in MLB payroll.

 

The Nationals, due to MASN litigation, have never been able to create and benefit from a proper RSN.

 

The Lerners are cheap.

[Dan T.]

One thing that's bugging me is that Josh Bell seems to be an afterthought in all this. He's currently 5th in the NL in BA, and 4th in OBP.  He's still under 30, and would immediately help any pennant chasing team.  There's no albatross of a contract with him. Yet it seems he just got thrown into this deal.

 

I guess I wonder what the prospect haul would have been if Soto and Bell got packaged separately to inquiring teams.

[@DCGoldPants]

58 minutes ago, Riggo#44 said:

 

 

I know its nearly impossible. But I'd avoid Boras guys for a bit, personally, Yeah, he represents some of the very best. But not all of them. We'll see what happens in San Diego, but would anyone be surprised if he still hits FA in a few years?

[Dan T.]

5 minutes ago, @DCGoldPants said:

 

. . .. We'll see what happens in San Diego, but would anyone be surprised if he still hits FA in a few years?

 

Yeah is there any indication the trade changes Boras' view on Soto hitting free agency?  Will the Padres have any better luck signing him before he becomes a FA?  

 

 

Edited August 3, 2022 by Dan T.

[@DCGoldPants]

Just now, Dan T. said:

 

Yeah is there any indication the trade changes Boras' view on Soto hitting free agency?  Will the Padres have any better luck signing him before he becomes a FA?  

 

 

 

If he's not even countering (if that's true), then no. We wants a bidding war that includes both NY Teams and LA.

[Ball Security]

16 minutes ago, Dan T. said:

One thing that's bugging me is that Josh Bell seems to be an afterthought in all this. He's currently 5th in the NL in BA, and 4th in OBP.  He's still under 30, and would immediately help any pennant chasing team.  There's no albatross of a contract with him. Yet it seems he just got thrown into this deal.

 

I guess I wonder what the prospect haul would have been if Soto and Bell got packaged separately to inquiring teams.

It’s a good question.  Rizzo did say to get the guy they really wanted (I’m guessing Susana) included, they had to package Bell.  It was reported that the Padres were going to include Arejon (sp?) instead of Gore.  So, possibly, by adding Bell they got Gore over Arejon plus Susana.

 

Listening to Rizzo, he said Susana is the one with the highest upside - which kind of surprised me.  He also said that Adams would stick at short and Hassell will stick in CF.

 

Also, Houston traded for Mancini the day before.  That took a main player for Bell out of the equation.  

Edited August 3, 2022 by Ball Security

[Going Commando]

10 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

The truth is: spending big bucks on one player is NOT the way to win in baseball(unless you're the Yankees or Dodgers because they operate in a different financial universe). Look at the individual great players:

 

One of the great things about MLB is that it has a history that stretches back past 2000, and that history is filled with the greatest players of their era piling up WS championships.  You also left out Pujols from your list.

 

MLB also doesn't have a salary cap.  It is absolutely possible to pay a 23 year old Soto a fair market rate and still build a great team around him.  But to do it on an efficient budget, you have to not do things like sign a 31 year old Strasburg to 35 AAV for 7 years or a 29 year old Patrick Corbin to 23 AAV for 6 years.

 

The only scenario where we can put lipstick on this pig is if Soto ends up being Ken Griffey Jr and not Ted Williams and at least some of these prospects pan out big time.  But even that analogy doesn't fit right because Soto already helped us win a ring and Griffey Jr was entering his age 30 season when he was traded.  The truth is the closest precedent to cutting bait on a generational player around age 23 because of cash reasons draws a heinously awful comparison that we don't want to contemplate.  For this trade to end up looking like the right move and not a historic mistake, we need Soto to end up not being as good as everyone in the baseball world thought he is, and we need the team to get back to being good very fast.

[Warhead36]

19 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

 

One of the great things about MLB is that it has a history that stretches back past 2000, and that history is filled with the greatest players of their era piling up WS championships.  You also left out Pujols from your list.

 

I'll give you Pujols, but he also didn't win anything when he signed a big deal with the Angels. He's basically the exception, but the Cardinals are also a world class organization that has continued to win and contend even without Pujols.

 

But who else? Ripken won super early with the Orioles, but nothing after that. Garciaparra didn't win with the Red Sox. I already mentioned you A-Rod(until he joined the Yankees). Gwynn didn't win. Bonds didn't win with the Pirates OR Giants(one World Series appearance in SF).

 

Before that, salaries didn't really skyrocket the way they do now and MLB was in a different world financially. Teams you built could stay together like the great Reds teams of the 70s, the As of the 80s etc.

 

When you pay one player a metric f ton of money, it significantly hampers your chances of competing for championships, unless you're the Yankees or Dodgers. In the modern era, that is absolutely a fact.

Edited August 3, 2022 by Warhead36

[purbeast]

After hearing Rizzo on the junks this morning, I am totally cool with what went down.  

 

 

The Nats basically did what the Redskins should have done with Cousins.  

 

Based on what Rizzo said, the writing was on the wall that Soto had no intention of signing another deal.  I mean 3 offers and no counter offers and no explanation, that pretty much says it all.  Rizzo felt strongly that he was going to go to FA which seems likely based on all the available info, and he got the most out of what he could get for Soto.  I am totally okay with how it went down.

 

On the flipside, the Redskins totally botched it with Cousins and even though everyone saw the writing on the wall, they kept franchising him until he could walk and got nothing for him.

 

One organization has a recent championship, the other hasn't gotten past the second round of the playoffs in like 3 decades.

 

[tshile]

The problem with the justification from Rizzo is that this situation doesn’t exist in a vacuum. 
 

if it did, then what he says is a perfect explanation and makes sense

 

buy it’s part of a bigger picture of bad contracts and being unable to retain talent. A bigger picture of cheap ownership and a GM that found success despite the cheap ownership. 
 

and the backdrop is the sale of the team. And it’s obvious to think the desire to sell the time drove this move. 
 

they are the opposite of the redskins. No problem getting talent, unable to keep it. 
 

comparing rings is silly because the Redskins’s are and have been top to bottom a bad organization.  They may be the worst run organization in all of sports - but I’m not against the idea we can find one or two that are worse if we really dig into it. 
 

 

[mammajamma]

2 hours ago, Dan T. said:

 

Yeah is there any indication the trade changes Boras' view on Soto hitting free agency?  Will the Padres have any better luck signing him before he becomes a FA?  

 

 

I can see, for several reasons (winning team, friends like Tatis on the team, weather, etc), SD getting a little more benefit than us, but I still think its 99.9% chance he goes to FA. As others have said, that was his plan all along. The thing going against SD is their payroll already is insane, so they won't be able to afford his contract. Guessing he's just a very expensive rental for them for 3 playoff runs.

 

I think the Nats are going to have just as good of a chance signing him in FA in 2.5 years as they would've if we didn't trade him.

[Forehead]

2 hours ago, Going Commando said:

The truth is the closest precedent to cutting bait on a generational player around age 23 because of cash reasons draws a heinously awful comparison that we don't want to contemplate.

 

Are you referring to Babe Ruth or something more recent?

[Ball Security]

4 minutes ago, mammajamma said:

I can see, for several reasons (winning team, friends like Tatis on the team, weather, etc), SD getting a little more benefit than us, but I still think its 99.9% chance he goes to FA. As others have said, that was his plan all along. The thing going against SD is their payroll already is insane, so they won't be able to afford his contract. Guessing he's just a very expensive rental for them for 3 playoff runs.

 

I think the Nats are going to have just as good of a chance signing him in FA in 2.5 years as they would've if we didn't trade him.

I can’t see SD being able to extend him until they find out whether or not Machado opts out.  He can do that after 2023.  So then Soto will only have one more year to FA.  I can’t see him passing up the Mets bidding on him.

 

Will Manny opt out?  He would be passing on 5/160.  He’d be 31.  I could see him doing that.  
 

The problem for SD is all of their current starters except Musgrove will be gone or up for new contracts.

[JamesMadisonSkins]

Here's a blurb from the Athletic trade deadline article: https://theathletic.com/3474257/2022/08/03/mlb-trade-deadline-recap/

 

In making the Juan Soto trade, the Nationals finally waved a white flag. They acknowledged that their farm system just wasn’t good enough to help put them in position to contend for the playoffs before Soto reached free agency. Maybe after Soto’s original years of team control, the Nationals will now be relevant in the NL East again.

That would be 2025. By then, C.J. Abrams and Mackenzie Gore should be stars. James Wood and Robert Hassell III should be chasing down balls in the outfield, one of them in center before he moves to a corner in the wake of the promotion of 2022 first-round pick Elijah Green.

If those players reach their projections, and the talent of some recent acquisitions (top international signee Cristhian Vaquero and 2021 first-rounder Brady House, for instance) shine too, the Nationals really could be in a promising place three years from now.

The NL East is too stacked for the Nationals to delude themselves into thinking they can “reboot,” to use the term general manager Mike Rizzo adopted at last year’s trade deadline, in a short period. The Mets have deep pockets and a stocked farm; the Braves have one of the best player development systems in the division and a World Series title to defend; and the Phillies have Bryce Harper, whom they signed to bring them glory. And let’s not forget the Marlins. They have a star in Jazz Chisholm and a strong bevy of arms coming up through the minor leagues, even with the recent UCL injury of pitching prospect Max Meyer. The development of a few bats could catapult them into relevance for the first time since the mid-2010s.

Parting with Soto, already of Hall of Fame caliber at the age of 23, will hurt fans. It may not be easy for members of the Nationals to swallow either. But the team learned a lesson from not trading Harper. They learned not to let a star walk away without getting something valuable in return. – Maria Torres

[PleaseBlitz]

14 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

Name a great individual player who won a championship after getting a HUGE contract who doesn't play for the Yankees or Dodgers.

 

Max Scherzer. 

 

What do I win?

[Ball Security]

12 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

Here's a blurb from the Athletic trade deadline article: https://theathletic.com/3474257/2022/08/03/mlb-trade-deadline-recap/

 

In making the Juan Soto trade, the Nationals finally waved a white flag. They acknowledged that their farm system just wasn’t good enough to help put them in position to contend for the playoffs before Soto reached free agency. Maybe after Soto’s original years of team control, the Nationals will now be relevant in the NL East again.

That would be 2025. By then, C.J. Abrams and Mackenzie Gore should be stars. James Wood and Robert Hassell III should be chasing down balls in the outfield, one of them in center before he moves to a corner in the wake of the promotion of 2022 first-round pick Elijah Green.

If those players reach their projections, and the talent of some recent acquisitions (top international signee Cristhian Vaquero and 2021 first-rounder Brady House, for instance) shine too, the Nationals really could be in a promising place three years from now.

The NL East is too stacked for the Nationals to delude themselves into thinking they can “reboot,” to use the term general manager Mike Rizzo adopted at last year’s trade deadline, in a short period. The Mets have deep pockets and a stocked farm; the Braves have one of the best player development systems in the division and a World Series title to defend; and the Phillies have Bryce Harper, whom they signed to bring them glory. And let’s not forget the Marlins. They have a star in Jazz Chisholm and a strong bevy of arms coming up through the minor leagues, even with the recent UCL injury of pitching prospect Max Meyer. The development of a few bats could catapult them into relevance for the first time since the mid-2010s.

Parting with Soto, already of Hall of Fame caliber at the age of 23, will hurt fans. It may not be easy for members of the Nationals to swallow either. But the team learned a lesson from not trading Harper. They learned not to let a star walk away without getting something valuable in return. – Maria Torres

I’d quibble a bit about that last line regarding Harper.  There is a mountain of difference between the 2016-2018 teams and the 2022-2024 Nats teams in terms of competitiveness.  When you are trying to compete you don’t trade guys like Harper.  Just like you don’t trade Rendon and Strasburg in 2019 like many people wanted to do.

[@DCGoldPants]

it's like these people don't remember the timeline here since 2005. Team moves here, worst farm system. Slowly build that up over years while losing nearly 100 games over and over. Finally, they are ready to make a splash. Sign Werth around when Stras and Harper come up. Rendon comes up. They start going to the playoffs but fall short thanks to guys like Matt Williams or Dusty making his typical playoff mistakes. But they keep trying, trying prospects and young guys to for vets to get over before the window closes.

 

It works. But like mentioned above, there was a cost of prospects and young guys. So, here we are..... starting over. Yeah, losing all those guys like Harper and Rendon and Soto and Turner SUCK. It sucks a lot. It was lose/lose in keeping Stras or Rendon now, and nobody would have said that after 2019. It had to be one or the other. Could they have kept Harper? Probably, but we'll take a title over that every day of the week. 

 

Losing Turner and Soto I think hurts more because they were part of the title. But you want to move these guys a little early rather than a little late.

 

There are no promises that what they reloaded with are going to recreate what happened in 2012 will happen again because all the stuff Cavalli is called up, and maybe Henry or Rutledge.... and some of what they got from San Diego. Mix in a Werth like signing. We know it's possible because it happened here before.

 

Still, ownership is key and I'd imagine if new owners come in. They will want to spend to excellerate that timeline. So, we'll see.

 

Right now the rest of the year should be giving minutes to the young guys that can handle the MLB for 2 months and see where they are at. I don't love the idea of Cavalli being given to Hickey. But, whatever. 

[Renegade7]