Renegade7

Starting QB 2019???

Who should be the starting QB in 2019???  

401 members have voted

  1. 1. Who should be the starting QB in 2019???

    • Alex Smith
      28
    • Colt McCoy
      66
    • Trade for a Veteran
      8
    • Sign a Veteran
      29
    • First Round Pick (2019 draft class)
      65
    • Non-First Round Pick (2019 draft class)
      37
    • Too Early to Answer
      63
    • I don't know yet
      22
    • We're screwed (at least at QB for 2019)
      83


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I just read that Murray will be visiting the Skins on Saturday.  It’s like me test driving cars at a Jaguar dealership.

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3 hours ago, mojo said:

I just read that Murray will be visiting the Skins on Saturday.  It’s like me test driving cars at a Jaguar dealership.

Saturday? Thought it was next Thursday. The 18th. Least that’s what was reported 

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Posted (edited)
On 3/29/2019 at 11:56 PM, Burgold said:

I’m strangely at peace with Case being our 2019 QB. I like overachievers. I think he deserved better as far being rewarded in Minnesota. I think he was the 2017 version of Trent Dilfer. 

 

The only worry I have is what happens if he proves worthy? If he does then we lose him on a one year rental. 

 

At any rate, I feel okay about giving Case the keys to the car and hope we don’t draft a QB using a number one or two pick. 

I think Case deserves a chance to compete and if he wins the job then I'll watch to see what happens.  Kind of feel the same way about McCoy.  Case seems to have the upper hand with decision making imo.  

 

If if he proves worthy, that's a win win situation Negative Nancy!  First, they'll get final confirmation that Alex Smith will never play again and have the rights to address Case.  They can apply a RFA tender on him or FA tag, they can trade him, sign him to a multi-year deal, or let him walk in FA and get the comp pick.  

 

Jay is going to get replaced.  A new HC in 2020 will want to pick his own QB.  If that new HC has his guy in house then cool.  If that QB is not on the roster and you've signed the wrong guy to a multi year deal, that HC isn't taking the job.  2019 and 2020 are not going to see the Skins change much of anything.  They're a chronic sub par team until they fully fill out the roster and hire enough competent people to change the organization....and that's not going to happen until Allen is gone imo. 

Edited by TheShredder

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8 hours ago, mojo said:

I just read that Murray will be visiting the Skins on Saturday.  It’s like me test driving cars at a Jaguar dealership.

Exactly.

Now lets just pray snyder doesn't take out another loan he can't afford!

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9 hours ago, Cooleyfan1993 said:

Saturday? Thought it was next Thursday. The 18th. Least that’s what was reported 

That's was what I heard too.

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Where are most of the pundits placing Clayton Thorson in the draft? Is it possible he will be around in the third round? Instead of overpaying for Rosen, I would select Clayton with one of our third rounders if available have him work behind case and Colt. Decent arm, good Mobility and he seems to lift those around him. Doesn't have a great Supporting Cast from what I can see

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Just read in Wash Post that Snyder's son knows one of the top tier quarterbacks.  Ugh.... if we pick him because of what the son says it will keep the dysfunction at Redskins Park alive and well.

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14 minutes ago, veteranskinsfan said:

Just read in Wash Post that Snyder's son knows one of the top tier quarterbacks.  Ugh.... if we pick him because of what the son says it will keep the dysfunction at Redskins Park alive and well.

Its Haskins

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55 minutes ago, teamcal00 said:

Where are most of the pundits placing Clayton Thorson in the draft? Is it possible he will be around in the third round? Instead of overpaying for Rosen, I would select Clayton with one of our third rounders if available have him work behind case and Colt. Decent arm, good Mobility and he seems to lift those around him. Doesn't have a great Supporting Cast from what I can see

Non-1st round talent QBs almost never work out.

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11 minutes ago, JoggingGod said:

Non-1st round talent QBs almost never work out.

While that may be true, there are quite a few examples of ones that have worked out. I would imagine that they are planning to groom someone behind case and Colt. I would be okay with Grier if he slipped to the Third

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33 minutes ago, teamcal00 said:

While that may be true, there are quite a few examples of ones that have worked out. I would imagine that they are planning to groom someone behind case and Colt. I would be okay with Grier if he slipped to the Third

Nooooo. Grier is a career backup. I don’t know why everyone is so high on him.

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12 minutes ago, JoggingGod said:

Nooooo. Grier is a career backup. I don’t know why everyone is so high on him.

What would you like to see?

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Just now, teamcal00 said:

What would you like to see?

Either take Haskins/Lock, trade for Rosen, or draft someone as a backup only and wait until 2020 round 1.

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[ ignores dozens and dozens of well researched posts over the course of months thoroughly breaking down why x player is a strong sleeper candidate ]

 

” I just don’t understand why anyone likes him!?! “ 

 

hahaha

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Grier has things that cannot be corrected in the NFL: weak arm, super weak lower body, slow release, fumble-itis. No thank you to him as a long term starter.

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Grier also has above-average accuracy, Mobility and moxie. Sometimes those guys surprise. I do like Haskins, lock and Rosen but I don't see any of them that's good enough to trade significant assets for. Hopefully Haskins Falls to 15 

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Accuracy is skewed playing in the Big 12. He’s not gonna get by on that alone in the big leagues. Also his mobility is above average but it doesn’t change the fact that he’s a super weak passer.

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Cardinals will take Murray. Skins will trade for Rosen. It won't involve pick 15. <-- my prediction. Book it!

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8 hours ago, teamcal00 said:

While that may be true, there are quite a few examples of ones that have worked out. I would imagine that they are planning to groom someone behind case and Colt. I would be okay with Grier if he slipped to the Third

 

In the history of the league? Sure. In the last 15th years in the more modern era of the game with more passing, better scouting, and now 32 teams (making each round longer)? You'd be hard pressed to come up with 5 guys you'd really want. In fact, I looked. I started with 2004 (15 years ago) and here's who's the best of the best non-first round QBs:

 

(1) Russell Wilson (2012, 3rd round) - I think, by far, the best player on this list. A 5 time Pro Bowler with a possible HOF career. He largely fell on draft day due to size. Something NFL teams no longer seem to care that much about (see Murray, Kyler or even to some extent Mayfield, Baker). So not sure how repeatable a pick like this is. Wilson was a great undersized QB. Seattle identified the market inefficiency of NFL teams over-emphasizing size.  Wilson wasn't a first rounder almost entirely because of size. Nowadays teams would likely take him in the first round.

 

(2) Matt Schaub (2004, 3rd round) - 2004 was a deep QB class, also producing Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, and Ben Roethlisberger. 4 starters out of one draft is virtually unheard of. Schaub started 98 games and made two Pro Bowls. He wasn't great and when the end came, it came fast. But he was a bona fide starter for six years. So that's something.

 

(3) Kirk Cousins (2012, 4th round) - don't really need to explain this one. Redskins fans know about Cousins. Of course the fact he's the 3rd best QB on this list and the Redskins ran him out of town not knowing if he was really worth committing too shows that the odds of finding even someone as good as Cousins seem slim. But 73 starts and several more to come likely mean he'll end up pretty successful

 

(4) Andy Dalton (2011, 2nd round) - I'm still not sure Andy Dalton is actually a good QB. He's started from Day 1, which means 120 starts to date and 3 Pro Bowls. Seriously, Andy Dalton made three Pro Bowls? His numbers aren't really good, but they're not really terrible. He just sort of is. But the Bengals always seem to be looking for something better option and while Cousins just got nearly 30 million a year, Dalton would likely be hard pressed to find a starting job if the Bengals let him go. Dalton seems to represent close to the high water mark of non-first round QBs. HE's not bad, but he's not really someone you want to build around either.

 

(5) Dak Prescott (2016, 4th round) - Prescott's young enough that we don't really know what he is. So he could easily move up this list. He's already made 2 Pro Bowls in 3 years, but is he any good? He basically played the game manager role in his rookie season and helped ride Ezekiel Elliott and the game's best offensive line to decent numbers. Then he kind of sucked in year 2 and half of year 3 until Amari Cooper arrived. And now all of a sudden he's good again. Maybe? No one seems to really know. Maybe he's just another Andy Dalton. Not sucking and putting up decent numbers, but not really a guy you build around. Or maybe he takes that next step in a year or two. We'll see

 

Honorable mentions:

- Ryan Fitzpatrick (2005, 7th rounder) - he never seems to a be a guy any team wants to start, but he's started 126 games, which is pretty amazing for a 7th round pick. Of course any team that has him start is always looking for a better option

- Jimmy Garoppolo (2014, 2nd round) - people seem to think he's good, but he's started a whopping 10 games in his career to date with very middling numbers. I suppose he could be good, but dude's barely played more than half a season as a starter in 5 years. So you have to show me first

- Nick Foles (2012, 3rd round) - Is he a starter? Despite some success, the Eagles decide Sam Bradford was a far better option, the Rams decided anyone was better, the Chiefs didn't even play him, and now the Eagles let him walk again. Of course he did win a Super Bowl. But then again, so did Trent Dilfer. Maybe Jeff Hostetler is a better comp? He's never started more than 11 games in any season and he's never been good for more than half a season (and often is quite bad). So he's still really unproven and 2019 might be an interesting test to see what he really is. Of course that's 7 years after being drafted and on his 5th team.

- Colin Kaepernick (2011, 2nd round) - He made it to a Super Bowl and nearly won a Super Bowl, but in reality wasn't that good. Sure, he got blackballed for his protests, but he also made zero Pro Bowls before any of that happened. Simple fact was he was never really that good.

- Derek Carr (2014, 2nd round) - like Dalton, he's been a starter since Day 1. Which gives him 78 starts. And somehow three Pro Bowls? Oddly he's only been good for major 1.5 seasons total. He had a fantastic 2016 and at competent 2015. But why is it that he's basically at bottom of any QB rankings and Oakland seems very prepared to move on (even though his contract is an albatross) When you peaked in year 3, it's not a good sign.

 

Bottom line, if Andy Dalton is the idea of a success, it's a very underwhelming plan . You can easily do worse, but you really want to do better. I'd like this better if it was plan C, not Plan A or B

 

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21 minutes ago, Jericho said:

 

In the history of the league? Sure. In the last 15th years in the more modern era of the game with more passing, better scouting, and now 32 teams (making each round longer)? You'd be hard pressed to come up with 5 guys you'd really want. In fact, I looked. I started with 2004 (15 years ago) and here's who's the best of the best non-first round QBs:

 

(1) Russell Wilson (2012, 3rd round) - I think, by far, the best player on this list. A 5 time Pro Bowler with a possible HOF career. He largely fell on draft day due to size. Something NFL teams no longer seem to care that much about (see Murray, Kyler or even to some extent Mayfield, Baker). So not sure how repeatable a pick like this is. Wilson was a great undersized QB. Seattle identified the market inefficiency of NFL teams over-emphasizing size.  Wilson wasn't a first rounder almost entirely because of size. Nowadays teams would likely take him in the first round.

 

(2) Matt Schaub (2004, 3rd round) - 2004 was a deep QB class, also producing Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, and Ben Roethlisberger. 4 starters out of one draft is virtually unheard of. Schaub started 98 games and made two Pro Bowls. He wasn't great and when the end came, it came fast. But he was a bona fide starter for six years. So that's something.

 

(3) Kirk Cousins (2012, 4th round) - don't really need to explain this one. Redskins fans know about Cousins. Of course the fact he's the 3rd best QB on this list and the Redskins ran him out of town not knowing if he was really worth committing too shows that the odds of finding even someone as good as Cousins seem slim. But 73 starts and several more to come likely mean he'll end up pretty successful

 

(4) Andy Dalton (2011, 2nd round) - I'm still not sure Andy Dalton is actually a good QB. He's started from Day 1, which means 120 starts to date and 3 Pro Bowls. Seriously, Andy Dalton made three Pro Bowls? His numbers aren't really good, but they're not really terrible. He just sort of is. But the Bengals always seem to be looking for something better option and while Cousins just got nearly 30 million a year, Dalton would likely be hard pressed to find a starting job if the Bengals let him go. Dalton seems to represent close to the high water mark of non-first round QBs. HE's not bad, but he's not really someone you want to build around either.

 

(5) Dak Prescott (2016, 4th round) - Prescott's young enough that we don't really know what he is. So he could easily move up this list. He's already made 2 Pro Bowls in 3 years, but is he any good? He basically played the game manager role in his rookie season and helped ride Ezekiel Elliott and the game's best offensive line to decent numbers. Then he kind of sucked in year 2 and half of year 3 until Amari Cooper arrived. And now all of a sudden he's good again. Maybe? No one seems to really know. Maybe he's just another Andy Dalton. Not sucking and putting up decent numbers, but not really a guy you build around. Or maybe he takes that next step in a year or two. We'll see

 

Honorable mentions:

- Ryan Fitzpatrick (2005, 7th rounder) - he never seems to a be a guy any team wants to start, but he's started 126 games, which is pretty amazing for a 7th round pick. Of course any team that has him start is always looking for a better option

- Jimmy Garoppolo (2014, 2nd round) - people seem to think he's good, but he's started a whopping 10 games in his career to date with very middling numbers. I suppose he could be good, but dude's barely played more than half a season as a starter in 5 years. So you have to show me first

- Nick Foles (2012, 3rd round) - Is he a starter? Despite some success, the Eagles decide Sam Bradford was a far better option, the Rams decided anyone was better, the Chiefs didn't even play him, and now the Eagles let him walk again. Of course he did win a Super Bowl. But then again, so did Trent Dilfer. Maybe Jeff Hostetler is a better comp? He's never started more than 11 games in any season and he's never been good for more than half a season (and often is quite bad). So he's still really unproven and 2019 might be an interesting test to see what he really is. Of course that's 7 years after being drafted and on his 5th team.

- Colin Kaepernick (2011, 2nd round) - He made it to a Super Bowl and nearly won a Super Bowl, but in reality wasn't that good. Sure, he got blackballed for his protests, but he also made zero Pro Bowls before any of that happened. Simple fact was he was never really that good.

- Derek Carr (2014, 2nd round) - like Dalton, he's been a starter since Day 1. Which gives him 78 starts. And somehow three Pro Bowls? Oddly he's only been good for major 1.5 seasons total. He had a fantastic 2016 and at competent 2015. But why is it that he's basically at bottom of any QB rankings and Oakland seems very prepared to move on (even though his contract is an albatross) When you peaked in year 3, it's not a good sign.

 

Bottom line, if Andy Dalton is the idea of a success, it's a very underwhelming plan . You can easily do worse, but you really want to do better. I'd like this better if it was plan C, not Plan A or B

 

Awesome post. Thank you for doing the research. So what do you think they should do?

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22 minutes ago, teamcal00 said:

Awesome post. Thank you for doing the research. So what do you think they should do?

 

I'm not sure there is an answer this year. Draft class is weak and some in the media are really over hyping some of the QB options (Daniel Jones? Really?). Drew Lock just looks like a bust. In you squint hard enough, maybe you get Joe Flacco. Which is super underwhelming for a Top 10 pick. The only QBs I'd consider in the Top 2 rounds are Murray and Haskins. But both are risky plays as one year starters. So they're far from certain. but they have obvious talent. Just not someone I'd pay to move up to get. Murray's going to be off the table anyway, but Haskins could slide I suppose. So if Haskins is there at 15, I'd do it.

 

Outside of that, there's trading for Rosen. Not a terrible move, but no need to pay exorbitant prices. A second rounder is the absolute max I'd go and even then I'd really want to love the guy to do. Which, as of now, I don't (if it was my job on the line, I'd do a deep dive of Rosen and see what else I'd infd. I just have't done that). So I'd offer a third rounder. Teams always seem to overpay for crappy QBs (Browns giving up a 3rd rounder for Tyrod Taylor to ride the pine last year or New Orleans giving up a third for Teddy Bridgewater to do the same), so not sure that gets it done.

 

If neither of those happen, I'm all for picking a QB in rounds 3-7. But it has to be the right guy offering good value at whatever pick. And we'll have to see how the draft unfolds to know who's there. Just understand that any QB taken in those rounds should be viewed as no more than a back-up. Anything more is gravy.

 

QB is important, but too often teams force a move just to say they did something. Making a bad move is often worse than making no move at all. Sometimes 2020 is the better option.

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Posted (edited)
20 hours ago, JoggingGod said:

Accuracy is skewed playing in the Big 12. He’s not gonna get by on that alone in the big leagues. Also his mobility is above average but it doesn’t change the fact that he’s a super weak passer.

 

I agree that at times the competition is subpar, and playing in an air raid offense can inflate statistics. That is why I looked into how each qb available to us has fared against the ranked ( top 25) teams over the course of their collegiate career. I ignored Rosen’s year in Arizona for this exercise, as well as Will’s 1st season at Florida as they were going through an upheaval and he transferred after redshirting. 

 

The stats show that Grier played better against the best competition compared to the other candidates. Dwayne Haskins was very close in numbers against good competition, and had a lower pick rate ( by a wide margin), but that was half the sample size of Grier, and Will still had a higher yard average and td average in spite of that. 

 

A while back i compared Haskins to Gerard, and after SteveMcqueen was adamant about Dwayne I had to go back and look at his tape. His numbers are very impressive, and his accuracy is tops in this class. Accuracy translates to the NFL more than most any other attribute. 

 

I disagree that Grier is a weak passer. And I don’t think that is all that important, as historically the “ rocket laser arm”isn’t as important as touch, feel, and accuracy. The best quarterbacks all have the ability to throw catchable balls, even if the form is wonky ( Rivers ). He can make all the throws and did repeatedly to mid-late round talent. I dislike his cadence and tendency to take bad sacks... but he is always looking downfield to receivers on those late sacks. I think that is a much better mentality and preferable Over the Carson wentz tendency to look 10-15 yds to his TE on every scramble. 

Edited by Skin'emAlive
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