Sports Wagering thread

[TradeTheBeal!]

 

[tshile]

On 12/1/2022 at 7:34 AM, purbeast said:

Honestly this **** is so stressful to watch games with things like this on the line, there is no chance I could do this with my own money or anything. 

Parlays are suckers bets. 
 

there’s a reason why the books go out of their way to make exotic bets and then market them. Some even try to set them as your default when you’re filling out your bet slip. 
 

and it isn’t because they’re trying to help you win more money. 
 

(I know you said you wouldn’t do it with real money, just adding. But yeah - parlays are suckers bets)

On straight nfl games books clear 3-4% profit margin 

 

on parlays they clear around 30%. 
 

Just fyi. 

[TD_washingtonredskins]

2 minutes ago, tshile said:

Parlays are suckers bets. 
 

there’s a reason why the books go out of their way to make exotic bets and then market them. Some even try to set them as your default when you’re filling out your bet slip. 
 

and it isn’t because they’re trying to help you win more money. 
 

(I know you said you wouldn’t do it with real money, just adding. But yeah - parlays are suckers bets)

On straight nfl games books clear 3-4% profit margin 

 

on parlays they clear around 30%. 
 

Just fyi. 

 

They are just so damned fun! I think most people understand that they have very, very long odds to hit one (given the, well, long odds as you add items to a parlay). What I like though is the relative low risk/high reward. Once you've built up some money in your account, you can bet a couple units to win a ****load. Then, you only have to win occasionally for it to pay off. 

[Ball Security]

2 hours ago, TD_washingtonredskins said:

 

They are just so damned fun! I think most people understand that they have very, very long odds to hit one (given the, well, long odds as you add items to a parlay). What I like though is the relative low risk/high reward. Once you've built up some money in your account, you can bet a couple units to win a ****load. Then, you only have to win occasionally for it to pay off. 

Yep.  I typically do them on NBA games.  I’ll do a five leg same game parlay and also bet the legs individually.  If I don’t hit the parlay, I’ll typically win 3-4 legs which covers most of what I lost. They times I hit, say  1 in 4 or 1 in 5 times, I make out pretty well.

[TD_washingtonredskins]

2 hours ago, Ball Security said:

Yep.  I typically do them on NBA games.  I’ll do a five leg same game parlay and also bet the legs individually.  If I don’t hit the parlay, I’ll typically win 3-4 legs which covers most of what I lost. They times I hit, say  1 in 4 or 1 in 5 times, I make out pretty well.

 

Right...and with things like alternate totals (rushing yards, spreads, passing yards, whatever) you can give yourself some very soft landings. 

 

For example, last night on the Thursday night game, I didn't wager on whatever the "50/50" over/under was for Josh Allen's passing yards were. I picked a much more attainable 200-yard total and picked the over. Granted, I got worse odds, but when you batch 4-5 of those things together it's kind of fun. I think I wagered $10 on Allen over 200 passing yards, Diggs over 50 receiving yards, Stevenson over 40 rushing yards, Diggs to score a TD, and Bills ML. 

 

The other thing I do a lot (maybe I have a problem) is that I find random overseas basketball games that are in-progress and have -250ish MLs. I combine 3-4 of those and just throw $5-10 on that parlay. I usually win 3 or 4 out of every 5 of those. It's a way to build up my account for the NFL and NCAA weekends where I technically "know what I'm doing" but lose way more often

[abdcskins]

My general rule is to do no more than a 3-leg parlay.  It is so tempting to keep adding teams cuz the potential winnings go up, but your chances of winning go down so much.  And always hedge if you hit the first two.

 

Over 61.5 in the TCU/Kansas State game tomorrow is gold.  I like Boston College +17 at Duke too in college basketball.

[Ball Security]

Let’s get it on.

Jets +130

Commanders -2

Seahawks -7

Chargers +120

Robinson H2h Barkley rushing yards +130

Heinicke over 206.5 passing yards

parlays: 1) Jefferson 6+ receptions; 100+ yards; AJ Brown 75+ yards; Brown TD +1050

2) Commanders moneyline; commanders race to 20; McLaurin 4+ receptions; Heinicke 15+ rushing yards; Commanders race to 20 +682

3) Texans +7.5; Falcons moneyline; Ravens/Broncos over 40.5 +917

4) Titans +6.5; Dolphins +6; Colts +12.5 +476

[purbeast]

Both the Giants and Commanders having a ****ty offense helped me win $125 off a free bet today lol.

 

I was definitely nervous though cause it was one of those "each teams under" bets and the number was 24.5 for that 3rd leg of the parlay.

Edited December 4, 2022 by purbeast

[skinfan2k]

What are good website to find good bets and good odds?

[purbeast]

MD peeps check your FD.  I just got an email about this offer.  Free $50 lol.

 

[abdcskins]

Since I am in Vegas it is only natural I throw down some picks.  Make sure to fade them...or not! 😆

 

Sixers -4.5

Warriors +4

Alabama -7.5 (vs. Memphis)

over 152.5 in the Alabama/Memphis game

Devils -165 (vs. Stars)

over 2 total goals France/Morocco -150 (regular time only)

[abdcskins]

Alabama blew it in the final minute or else they would have covered. That over and the Sixers were money though. Warriors not so much. I am back to fading them, something is wrong with that team, Klay Thompson is a shell of his former self and they play no defense. Crazy how James Wiseman is a zero factor. A few more before I fly back to LA in a several hours. 

 

Pacers +1.5, fade the Warriors!

Mavericks -2.5, Luka is in matrix mode.

Clippers -6.5, without KAT the Timberwolves are average.

 

Lions PK, their offense is high powered and the Jets are falling apart.

 

 

[abdcskins]

^ That was a 3-1 post. Betting against the Jets the last few weeks has worked out well.  Warriors have been playing much better but I still think they are worth betting against.  They are super banged up.  I am not sold on Jordan Poole being a difference maker.  Every time I watch them play he is turning the ball over like crazy.  Here are some picks for tonight.

 

Pistons +6.5, maybe sprinkle a little on +205 as well.  Guess who they are playing lol.

Bucks +5

 

Kings -115, De'Aron Fox is balling. Sabonis is killing it too.  Hawks are a joke, they get to face their former teammate Kevin Huerter who I am sure they regret letting go.  Kings on the second game of a back-to-back but I'm not concerned, they are home.  My favorite pick of the day.

 

Dallas Stars -1.5 +125

George Mason PK

 

[EmirOfShmo]

This is why I stopped sports gambling 25 years ago. I woulda been all over UC San Diego +3.5

 

 

Edited January 13, 2023 by EmirOfShmo

[abdcskins]

^ I was actually on Riverside and was watching that live when it happened. Had then at -3 though. Was shocked I won. Was surprised dude shot it but then again why not. In general there are a lot of meaningless points scored at the end of games, both football and basketball. Coaches teach the players to always go 110%.

 

Here are my picks for NFL wild card weekend.

 

Niners -10, -105

Chargers -135 (spread is -2.5 but not gonna mess with it)

Dolphins +13.5

Giants +3, -120

Ravens +8.5

Buccaneers +2.5

 

 

[purbeast]

Which one of these you all like better?

 

[TradeTheBeal!]

I like the top one better.

[purbeast]

10 minutes ago, TradeTheBeal! said:

I like the top one better.

That is what I was leaning towards but then saw the other one too.  Purdy the only suss one out of the 4 just based off of last week, but I don't really see it happening twice in a row.

 

McCaffrey has a TD in like every game the past 10 games or so.

 

50 total yards for Deebo?

 

And Hurts doesn't have 1 game this year with less than 150 passing yards.

 

The problem with all these damn boosts is they all seem super obvious they will hit haha.

 

 

[TradeTheBeal!]

16 minutes ago, purbeast said:

That is what I was leaning towards but then saw the other one too.  Purdy the only suss one out of the 4 just based off of last week, but I don't really see it happening twice in a row.

 

McCaffrey has a TD in like every game the past 10 games or so.

 

50 total yards for Deebo?

 

And Hurts doesn't have 1 game this year with less than 150 passing yards.

 

The problem with all these damn boosts is they all seem super obvious they will hit haha.

 

 

Counterpoint…and it’s a big one…These defenses will be the toughest either of these qbs/offenses have faced all year, and by a considerable margin.

 

The fact that CMC and Hurts have been hanging numbers against the Cardinals and Giants means absolutely nothing right now, today.  

[TheGreatBuzz]

44 minutes ago, TradeTheBeal! said:

I like the top one better.

 

I concur.

[purbeast]

44 minutes ago, TradeTheBeal! said:

Counterpoint…and it’s a big one…These defenses will be the toughest either of these qbs/offenses have faced all year, and by a considerable margin.

 

The fact that CMC and Hurts have been hanging numbers against the Cardinals and Giants means absolutely nothing right now, today.  

Yeah but it's not major numbers.  It's 1 TD and 150 yards passing lol.

 

But you are right.  This is the best of the best.  I still think that a good offense will outpace a good defense, which is why I think ultimately the Eagles will win.

 

And as mentioned though, I'm def leaning towards just tossing money on the top one.  I won $50 from one of the easiest boosts on DK yesterday (Lebron 25+ points, Tatum 25+ points) and would have put more if the max wasn't $50, so I'm probably gonna toss those winnings onto the top one.

Edited January 29, 2023 by purbeast

[PleaseBlitz]

I am doing the top one. Wtfn.

[TradeTheBeal!]

Eagles -2.5 and the under.  Feels like an ugly game.

 

Chiefs -2.

[purbeast]

7 minutes ago, PleaseBlitz said:

I am doing the top one. Wtfn.

Yeah I mean, if the 4 best teams in the NFL can't score a god damn passing TD, especially with Burrow, Mahomes, and Hurts in the picture, then wtf are we even doing?

[The Evil Genius]

Well fwiw 2 of the QBs are injured. So all it takes is a solid hit early and you lost that bet. I can also see Hurts easily vulturing a passing TD or 2 with his legs. 

 

Saw +500 talked about earlier on twitter on a Niners/Bengals win. I'd have bet that if I could (even though I expect the Chefs to wiin). 

Edited January 29, 2023 by The Evil Genius