2019 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[slinky]

assuming we lose next week what potentially could be the highest draft spot we could get if the right teams win this week and next allowing us to leapfrog them? 

[crabbypatty]

On 12/17/2018 at 7:28 PM, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

Eagles got Wentz without tanking too.  The price they paid was Kiko Alonso, Byron Maxwell, and two firsts and a third and fourth to go from 13 to 2.  That's not too bad a price at all.

 

The truth is there isn't a huge variation in top end quality of QB talent from year to year.  These kids go through the same camps and training and development systems and go to similar big time college programs where they have similar experiences.  Almost every year produces two or three first round guys who are good enough to become NFL starters.  This year is no different.

 

Franchise QBs are made, not found.  The biggest factor in developing these largely similar pieces of raw clay is the quality of coaching.  The good QB guys like Doug Pederson, Matt Nagy, Sean McVay, Bill O'Brien, and Andy Reid know how to develop the position and they end up making their guys successful.  The **** QB guys like Jeff Fisher and John Fox don't know how to coach or develop the position and they **** up their raw clay.  Not a coincidence that Trubisky and Goff look legit as soon as they go from being coached by those two imbeciles to McVay and Nagy.

 

Can anyone whose evaluated both really tell me what the difference between Jared Goff at Cal is from Drew Lock at Missouri?

 

They are the same prospect.  We can win with a Drew Lock if we can successfully develop him.  And I think Gruden is a pretty good QB guy.  The "QB grass will be greener next draft" is a fallacy and a form of procrastination.

Agree and disagree.

How much of Kirk's development and success was due to McVay?

 

I'd wager it was more his doing then Jay's. Sean is here, Kirk looks good. He goes to LA, Goff looks good.

Meanwhile Smith looks great in KC last year, here he looks awful.

McCoy, Sanchez, awful and awfuller.

And that's not counting the rg3 flame out, and their recently drafted QB sudfeld couldn't manage to throw a ball above a receivers feet.

 

You give Jay a rookie QB, the history in his time here says he will **** it up.

 

We don't have the support system in place to develop a rookie like other teams. 

[Est.1974]

The play of JJ is going to convince our FO that we can roll with Joe Average under centre in 2019 whilst we suck up the Alex Smith situation.

 

CB, FS, ILB, Edge rush....all major needs on this D. We'd are wasting the talent on our DL.

 

We will dump Norman and Zac Brown, and purge 3 or 4 other contracts to pay for another QB.

 

 

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

5 hours ago, crabbypatty said:

Agree and disagree.

How much of Kirk's development and success was due to McVay?

 

I'd wager it was more his doing then Jay's. Sean is here, Kirk looks good. He goes to LA, Goff looks good.

Meanwhile Smith looks great in KC last year, here he looks awful.

McCoy, Sanchez, awful and awfuller.

And that's not counting the rg3 flame out, and their recently drafted QB sudfeld couldn't manage to throw a ball above a receivers feet.

 

You give Jay a rookie QB, the history in his time here says he will **** it up.

 

We don't have the support system in place to develop a rookie like other teams. 

 

Disagree with most of this. but playing along, I've heard multiple beat guys say that Kevin O'Connell is a McVay like rising superstar -- Russell actually thinks they might have to scramble to keep him this off season, the dude is an ex-QB, he's in the house and would be involved.

 

Jay developed Dalton.   McVay's system was born from Jay's system -- McVay talked about it at the time.  Alex Smith had a career year in 2017 with arguably the best weapons in the league.  He regressed back to pre 2017 here with mediocre to bad weapons -- I put that on Bruce and the FO.  

 

Jay is regarded by multiple sources including Scot as one of the better college player evaluators out there -- Jay has his faults so I agree with some of the hits he takes on the board (also don't agree with some of the hits, too) but I think if anything he's our best chance to draft the right QB.  This team under Dan has put on a clinic for bad drafting and acquisitions at QB -- so for me dumping arguably their best evaluator from the building won't help those odds.

 

 

3 hours ago, UK SKINS FAN '74 said:

The play of JJ is going to convince our FO that we can roll with Joe Average under centre in 2019 whilst we suck up the Alex Smith situation.

 

CB, FS, ILB, Edge rush....all major needs on this D. We'd are wasting the talent on our DL.

 

We will dump Norman and Zac Brown, and purge 3 or 4 other contracts to pay for another QB.

 

 

 

 

 

yeah I think Johnson's performance and Colt bouncing back quick from the injury might ease any stress about drafting a QB this year.  My theory on QB though remains the same, grab one if one falls you like regardless -- will see what they do.

[Skinsinparadise]

The more I think about it and this thought has been put on this thread by others --and I agree with it -- make the running game your identity.  Especially if they bring Peterson back.  Peterson would give Guice time to find his legs in the season post ACL injury.  Then we got Thompson, too.  So it could be quite the combo.  LG is a must.  Not only would it help the running game but the O line in recent years keeps getting ravaged -- we can't keep doubling down on being thin in that position.

 

Beyond some of the guys already mentioned here.  The Wisconsin O lineman are intriguing.  Noticed Tyler Biadasz mocked to us in a mock today. Can play center-guard, big dude who some compare to Scherff stylistically.  I see Brugler has him ranked as his top interior O lineman.    Deiter is a another dude.  He's durable so far which is an extra plus with this roster.   Then you got Benzschwel also another big and durable dude.

 

Looks like there is a good depth in the interior:  Rasner, Ford, Deiter, Biadasz, Lindstrom, etc.  late first, 2nd-3rd round?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Bonez3]

Our team needs some serious OL help and depth. 1st or second rounder mandatory IMO. 

 

BPA is always some lineman regardless of position. 17th- there will be a comparable BPA OL. 49th- there will be a comparable BPA OL. 65th- there will be a comparable BPA OL. Drafting an OL is a necessity right now.

 

MLB/OL/WR/CB biggest needs in that order

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

1 hour ago, Bonez3 said:

MLB/OL/WR/CB biggest needs in that order

 

What about safety?

 

I think based on where talent likely lies in this draft, the board would look something like MLB > OL > S > CB > WR.

 

There are a lot of big bodied targets with a large catch radius, which is great, but not many who can really separate from defenders.  The best WR in the draft that's just difficult to cover, is woefully undersized.  Like smaller than DeSean Jackson, who is already pretty small.

[Est.1974]

DJ being cut creates 4mil in cap space next year. We need to sign a safety in FA and draft one.

 

We'll sign Flacco or Teddy and draft the 'Bama safety.

[Bonez3]

2 hours ago, Alcoholic Zebra said:

 

What about safety?

 

I think based on where talent likely lies in this draft, the board would look something like MLB > OL > S > CB > WR.

 

There are a lot of big bodied targets with a large catch radius, which is great, but not many who can really separate from defenders.  The best WR in the draft that's just difficult to cover, is woefully undersized.  Like smaller than DeSean Jackson, who is already pretty small.

Yes- safety just shot up the board with a bullet 🤣

[Skinsinparadise]

I think the Giants franchise Landon Collins but if not I'd chase him.

 

Considering the FO's obsession with Alabama, Deionte Thompson, might have just become a top target.

 

 

 

[Est.1974]

36 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Considering the FO's obsession with Alabama, Deionte Thompson, might have just become a top target.

 

Said the same earlier. Right now with Bruce in charge, he's the pick after trading back slightly.

[Skinsinparadise]

8 minutes ago, UK SKINS FAN '74 said:

 

Said the same earlier. Right now with Bruce in charge, he's the pick after trading back slightly.

 

Could be.  It would have some irony for me since I went to the first Alabama game this year and focused a lot on him and Mack Wilson.  So he was an early mention for me this college season.  Last year my first mention on the draft thread was Da'ron Payne.  So if they draft Thompson or Wilson -- I'll start becoming superstitious as my early mentions during the college season. 😎

 

Doug contradicted himself last off season -- at one point he goes they believe in BPA but in multiple other instances he talked about drafting based on need and telegraphed they were going need early at RB and DT and they did just that.

[markmills67]

On 12/23/2018 at 3:51 AM, slinky said:

assuming we lose next week what potentially could be the highest draft spot we could get if the right teams win this week and next allowing us to leapfrog them? 

We definitely can't finish higher than 10th in the draft. If we lose to the Eagles I would guess we will pick between 13 and 17 in the 1st round. 

 

HTTR 

[Est.1974]

18 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Could be.  It would have some irony for me since I went to the first Alabama game this year and focused a lot on him and Mack Wilson.  So he was an early mention for me this college season.  Last year my first mention on the draft thread was Da'ron Payne.  So if they draft Thompson or Wilson -- I'll start becoming superstitious as my early mentions during the college season. 😎

 

Now you dont have to be to be a genius with this FO, even I predicted Ryan Anderson in the second round. 

 

Time for Christmas duties. Best wishes SIP.

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

On 12/24/2018 at 3:17 PM, Skinsinparadise said:

I think the Giants franchise Landon Collins but if not I'd chase him.

 

Considering the FO's obsession with Alabama, Deionte Thompson, might have just become a top target.

 

From talking to Giants fans, they don't want to re-sign Landon Collins, they think his play has fallen off and he'll get far more money in FA than he's worth.  Apparently his great year (2016 i think?) was an aberration.

[skinny21]

4 minutes ago, Alcoholic Zebra said:

 

From talking to Giants fans, they don't want to re-sign Landon Collins, they think his play has fallen off and he'll get far more money in FA than he's worth.  Apparently his great year (2016 i think?) was an aberration.

Personally, I just don’t see any reason to be active in FA really... aside from re-signing our own (mostly Ioannidis, but maybe Crowder and Smith, depending on if we shed some cap).  

[Veryoldschool]

The first 3 picks should be for OL.  The OL has been incapacitated the last two seasons and never possessed enough internal power in the red zone anyways.  This draft should devoted almost exclusively to improving the OL with 1 OT and 2 OG/C's.  The rest of the picks should be spent on TE's & receivers if decent prospects are available.  The Skins would go into 2019 with a decent OL and DL and could look for a QB in 2020 if the lack of QB production dooms the 2019 season.  I don't want to draft a QB until the OL and receivers are better. In the interim I would pick a QB off of a practice squad.  I'm intrigued by Connor Cook who is now with Cincy.  If needed the Skins draft a QB in 2020 when the field is expected to be stronger and the Skins will pick higher if they don't get QB production in 2019.

 

 

[slinky]

Herbert going back to school

http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/25618480/justin-herbert-oregon-ducks-announces-return-senior-season

[PartyPosse]

I think that's probably a good thing for us. I didn't expect us to draft a QB this year as I don't think the group is all that strong even with Herbert. in 2020 hopefully they'll be a complete structural rebuild and a new regime will be able to handpick the guy they want from a much stronger crop of QBs. 

 

I still expect them to draft someone in the later rounds or trade a mid round pick for a guy like Dobbs or Rudolph from Pitts. 

[JamesMadisonSkins]

Put me in the camp that would love to see us get an OG/OC type guy in either the 1st or 2nd round.

 

I'd be curious to see what our cap situation ends up looking like. I hope we aren't too active. And would anyone be opposed to bringing back Clinton-Dix? I know he hasnt been great for us, but part of that could be the scheme he was playing with DJ here, and the other part might be getting used to the system (and some coaching?). He's here, and he's probably played himself out of some money to a certain extent. Would create some stability.

 

I think FA will be telling. We shouldn't be breaking any banks, but I do think we should have some $$ to play around with. I think the idea of going after another QB is crazy. The only solution to adding a QB is through the draft. We simply cannot afford to allocate more $$ there. Alex + Colt is already pushing us up to or over $30m and we can't get out from under that.

 

Guard, ILB, CB, Edge I think are the premier positions of need. If we can get a speed receiver to complement Richardson to some extent that would be nice, too.

 

TE is a big ? Davis and Reed are both back under contract. Hard to say whether we move on from both or wait another year. Sprinkle hasn't emerged much, but I think a flyer in the mid-rounds could be a good investment. I iked Ian Thomas and he seems to be playing well in Carolina, and I think he was a 3rd or 4th.

[fordranger76]

9 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

Put me in the camp that would love to see us get an OG/OC type guy in either the 1st or 2nd round.

 

I'd be curious to see what our cap situation ends up looking like. I hope we aren't too active. 

 

I think FA will be telling. We shouldn't be breaking any banks, but I do think we should have some $$ to play around with.

 

Guard, ILB, CB, Edge I think are the premier positions of need. If we can get a speed receiver to complement Richardson to some extent that would be nice, too.

 

 

In complete agreement with you in regards to the line. They have to get better here and cannot ignore it again. Makes sense to go young here. The cap I think is around 20 million right now and I'm guessing it raises by another 10 but who knows. I don't want them to be that active either but they have to get a safety. Not much in the draft starter wise right away. Collins, Matheieu, and Thomas are big gets and my hope is its Collins. I also think they are not going to bite on ILB. My guess is they are going to cut Brown and Hamilton takes over his roll and Foster replaces Foster. CB and Edge seems to be loaded in this draft especially the latter which of course leads to Smith being expendable. The speed receiver however will probably turn in to a slot man if Crowder leaves because I don't believe Quinn can be the lone option here as a replacement.

[JamesMadisonSkins]

17 minutes ago, fordranger76 said:

In complete agreement with you in regards to the line. They have to get better here and cannot ignore it again. Makes sense to go young here. The cap I think is around 20 million right now and I'm guessing it raises by another 10 but who knows. I don't want them to be that active either but they have to get a safety. Not much in the draft starter wise right away. Collins, Matheieu, and Thomas are big gets and my hope is its Collins. I also think they are not going to bite on ILB. My guess is they are going to cut Brown and Hamilton takes over his roll and Foster replaces Foster. CB and Edge seems to be loaded in this draft especially the latter which of course leads to Smith being expendable. The speed receiver however will probably turn in to a slot man if Crowder leaves because I don't believe Quinn can be the lone option here as a replacement.

If the team cuts Brown, Vernon Davis and Mason Foster ... with roll-over funds the team should have about $32 million without doing anything with Smith's contract.

 

If the team decides to go full-reboot and part with Norman (75% chance) and Reed (25% chance), you put yourself at $45 million in cap space with the roll-over funds.

 

That's plenty of money either way. Not sure the team will be all that aggressive in FA, but as you mentioned --- moving on from ZB and Foster puts you in a position to have to draft an ILB and likely bring a guy in FA as well. You can't rely on Rueben Foster, unless they have intel that says otherwise. You can put me in the camp that thinks Norman has been good but not living up to his contract. I don't mind bringing him back just to simply kick the can and give yourself another year to draft and groom some young DBs.

 

But I am in the camp that asks ... is $45 million in cap space necessary if we don't plan to go out and be aggressive in FA? My answer to that is no. So why cut Reed and Norman if you really only plan to bring in a couple of pricey FAs? You can also put me in the camp that thinks that we are unlikely to be attractive and likely have to overpay for most FAs we would bring in. So why not just live with Reed and Norman, and find their long-term replacements in this draft? Use the $32m in cap space to bring in a Safety and ILB and a veteran LG. Then draft CB, ILB, OG, WR, EDGE.

 

I could go either way with bringing back Preston. If you don't re-sign him, EDGE becomes an immediate need (Round 1/2) for an impact player. If you re-sign him, I think you still need to bring in a pass-rusher in the draft for depth/upside, but doesn't become as urgent. Same with Crowder. I have a hard time thinking either guy comes back though, under the circumstances of the team being in chaos. So you have to imagine you're gonna lose most of your FAs in addition to anyone I listed above. Use FA to replace them with some middle-tier guys and hope to hit some HRs in Rounds 1-4.

 

DB is an interesting situation though. We have Adonis Alexander who essentially red-shirted this year. He probably would have been a 1st-3rd round CB in this upcoming draft, so you can look at him as a guy you've coached up for a year that could be a high-upside guy in Year 2.

[skinsmania123]

On 12/23/2018 at 4:42 AM, UK SKINS FAN '74 said:

The play of JJ is going to convince our FO that we can roll with Joe Average under centre in 2019 whilst we suck up the Alex Smith situation.

 

CB, FS, ILB, Edge rush....all major needs on this D. We'd are wasting the talent on our DL.

 

We will dump Norman and Zac Brown, and purge 3 or 4 other contracts to pay for another QB.

 

 

 

 

I actually think they should roll with "Joe Average" and the Alex Smith situation?  It is already as sucked up and rotten as it can be.  So that is, unfortunately, burnt money under the bridge a la Allen and company.  

 

But if you purge the guys you mentioned, which they should, you can pick up some decent talent in the draft, and hopefully make one decent FA acquisition to at least buildup the D a bit.   I would hate to waste the life  of that young, aggressive D line.  A good edge rusher?  They would kick ass.

 

The Skins may pick up a QB in the 3rd round but the QB class this year is weak. They might even pass on it.  And there are other teams picking top 10, two that need QB's, who will grab Dwayne Haskins, who IMO is probably the best coming in.  I think the rest are okay but the pickings are slim this year.  Drew Lock had a great year, and I watched him a lot, because my friend is a Missouri fan,  but he needs development.    Next years class is better.  

 

Also we need a # 1 receiver.  Got to have it to start the year.  I think we let Crowder go.  Doctson is improved but he is a # 3 receiver with a special skill set that none of our QB's have been able to utilize properly.

[JamesMadisonSkins]

For me, the OL breaks down to this:

Starters:

LT: Trent Williams - He's your stud all-pro durable beast. He's starting to break down, but you aren't going to replace him until he needs replacing. And that is likely with a future 1st round pick. But not this year, and probably not next. You drafted Geron Christian as a 3rd OT as depth, and he was admittedly raw. But I see Christian as the back-up OT and possibly Moses' future replacement.

 

LG: Jonathan Cooper - former first rounder, he was on the team and played fairly well in reserve. I think you bring him back as an easy veteran presence with upside that knows the system.

 

OC: Chase Roullier - He's a guy that you can pencil in at OC. Won't be great but will be solid, and on a cheap rookie deal. He could move to LG if you draft a stud OC.

 

RG: Brandon Scherrf - His injury crippled us. But he's a stud. Long-term solution, obviously.

 

RT: Morgan Moses - He's getting beat up but ultimately plays through the injuries. He's been sub-par this year. He's likely the guy you worry most about, and probably the reason Christian was drafted last year.

 

Bench:

OT: Geron Christian - He was raw and possibly overdrafted in the 3rd round. But he's got upside and could be the long-term replacement for Moses. He's also a cheap back-up OT. Hope for him to grow in the off-season and be a legitimate step-in replacement for either OT should they go down.

OT: Timon Parris - UDFA, but small-school guy with upside. Worth keeping around as a camp-body and possible depth piece.

OG: Tyler Catalina - A guy you don't want to rely upon, but use-able depth with experience

 

That's 8 linemen. And I know Cooper is not signed for 2019, but he strikes me as a guy who could be pretty cheap ($2-3m/year) to bring back. I assume we'll try to get him back on a short deal through 2020.

 

I think you go into the draft looking to get your future at LG or Center, whichever presents the best value. If a Center, then Roullier and Cooper fight it out for LG. If a LG, then Roullier stays at OC and Cooper becomes your backup Guard. I would have no issue drafting another Tackle in the 4th or 5th to add depth and likely bump a guy like Parris/Catalina off the roster.

 

Short version: Draft a stud at Guard early (Round 1-2) and your OL issues are mitigated both short-term and long-term. Add another Tackle in the 4th-6th range and you go a long-ways in bolstering your depth, as well.

 

If you're rolling out LT Trent Williams, 2nd Round LG, C Chase Roullier, RG Brandon Scherff, RT Morgan Moses backed up by OT Geron Christian, OG Jonathan Cooper, and 5th round OT ... I think you have a great starting unit and enough quality behind them to spell the crazy injury bug we seem to be unable to kick.

[Skinsinparadise]

If Murray comes out, Dan would salivate at the marketing opportunity of drafting him. Though he's not a Jay type of QB.