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Do We Suddenly Have a Dominant Defense?


Going Commando

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Three games in, you have to project future performance based on the talent available rather than past performance.

 

We're still thinking about last year's lousy defense, and it clouded our ability to objectively assess just how good this defense was heading into the year.  I think it's still clouding it now.

 

The main thing we do in the draft thread is to make projections about future performance without having equivalent past performance to base them on.  And we make the projections by defining the matrix of skills and attributes for each player.

 

Put another way, we operate on the assumption that the best way to figure out what someone will do is to first figure out what they can do.  So we spend our time trying to figure out what the players can do.  It's actually really hard to do.

 

Performing that kind of analysis on this defense is what has me so bullish on them.  When you go through it player by player, you see that there aren't any real weak links.  There's a good player for every role and there is depth at the valuable outside positions.  And there is a ton of upside in each position group.  And most critically, the chemistry of the unit is exceptionally good.  We all started rolling our eyes at that hokey McCloughan talk of getting "football players" without acknowledging he was right to place so much emphasis on finding championship caliber competitors.  Having so many guys with that kind of toughness and competitiveness is what made the defense McCloughan helped build in Seattle so special.

 

Now of course injuries to a few specific players could derail us.  But that's true for any great or potentially great defense.  Seattle fell apart after Earl Thomas got hurt.  Denver would fall apart if Von Miller or Chris Harris got hurt.  Projecting them to be dominant assumes reasonable health.

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I think we need a dominant player up front to be a dominant defense. We have a dominant CB in Norman and Brown looks like a stud at MLB, but we don't have that dominant force up front. Kerrigan and Smith are good players but not at that Watt/Mack/Miller level. Allen might be in a year or two, but he's not there yet(he's been damn good though no doubt).

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25 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

I think we need a dominant player up front to be a dominant defense. We have a dominant CB in Norman and Brown looks like a stud at MLB, but we don't have that dominant force up front. Kerrigan and Smith are good players but not at that Watt/Mack/Miller level. Allen might be in a year or two, but he's not there yet(he's been damn good though no doubt).

 

You are right that we don't have a Watt/Miller/Mack on the edge.  But when I watch Preston Smith, I see Michael Bennett.  Maybe that's jumping the gun, but that's how much I believe in his talent.  Kerrigan's better than Cliff Avril was during his prime.  And then you start thinking that, if Galette is actually healthy, he can give you what Bruce Irvin gave that Seahawks defense.  And all of a sudden the pieces of the puzzle have come together.  Our interior DLs are actually probably better than Seattle's were.

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7 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

And the reason I think that is because the talent level of the unit is so high.  It's full of stars and high quality role players who other teams inexplicably gave up on, mid round gems, first round studs, and studs who should have been first rounders.  And the chemical make up of the group is awesome.  There is so much competitiveness and leadership on that side of the ball.

 

I think we may be seeing the beginning stage of a Seattle-like defense forming.

 

I agree completely with you. Build through the draft, find "football players" and watch them work. The main difference this year, is that we have a D coach that the players love and seemingly will run through a wall for. Adding Brown and Swearinger was HUGE for this defense. Swearinger and Norman hype the CB's and Brown is that lead patroller in the middle that we haven't had since prime London Fletcher. I am buying in to this defense being dominant. Nicholson is going to be VERY good. I'm calling it now, he will be a top 5 safety in less than 3 years. These guys are physical, and play with such a mean streak. You can tell they hate being underestimated and if they play like that all year, watch out. Bring on the Chiefs!

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We have a defense that is extremely fast.  Spaight/Foster and Zack Brown are studs in the middle. We have 2 safeties who can flat out cover ground. 

 

People don't realize this.  But we have legimate pass rushers along side Preston Smith.  Ryan Anderson and Junior are game-changers. 

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2 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

I think we need a dominant player up front to be a dominant defense. We have a dominant CB in Norman and Brown looks like a stud at MLB, but we don't have that dominant force up front. Kerrigan and Smith are good players but not at that Watt/Mack/Miller level. Allen might be in a year or two, but he's not there yet(he's been damn good though no doubt).

 

1 hour ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

You are right that we don't have a Watt/Miller/Mack on the edge.  But when I watch Preston Smith, I see Michael Bennett.  Maybe that's jumping the gun, but that's how much I believe in his talent.  Kerrigan's better than Cliff Avril was during his prime.  And then you start thinking that, if Galette is actually healthy, he can give you what Bruce Irvin gave that Seahawks defense.  And all of a sudden the pieces of the puzzle have come together.  Our interior DLs are actually probably better than Seattle's were.

Agree with this rebuttal.  There are almost certainly team's with better DEs, or better DTs, or better safeties or better inside linebackers (I'm leaving off corners because we may have the best duo/trio in the league right now), but I'm not sure which team's (if any) match our overall talent.  Yes, there's an element of homerism, coming after a once in a lifetime defensive showing, so it is too soon to call them dominant.  However, I think the general point is still valid - which defenses have better all around talent than ours?  Which defenses have fewer weak links than ours?   I'm not saying this is the best D in the league, but I feel pretty comfortable (odds-wise) predicting us to finish top 5.  

 

Man, that feels crazy to type.  

 

 

With all of that said, I'm betting we will run into teams that give us matchup problems (both offensively and defensively), so no telling how far we go as of yet.  

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2 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

You are right that we don't have a Watt/Miller/Mack on the edge.  But when I watch Preston Smith, I see Michael Bennett.  Maybe that's jumping the gun, but that's how much I believe in his talent.  Kerrigan's better than Cliff Avril was during his prime.  And then you start thinking that, if Galette is actually healthy, he can give you what Bruce Irvin gave that Seahawks defense.  And all of a sudden the pieces of the puzzle have come together.  Our interior DLs are actually probably better than Seattle's were.

Those are probably best case scenarios. Lets see how the season plays itself out. I do think we have a good D but I think people are going a bit overboard calling us dominant. Dominant Ds do it over the course of a season and then postseason.

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Can't say dominant defense just yet...but it's improving every game.  I wouldn't put any ceiling on this defense with all of the overall talent either. They're definitely playing with confidence and seem to enjoy the underdog label.  By all fairness the defensive coaching has been the most drastic improvement that's allowing this rising surge on D.  The couple of key FA additions have proven money well spent and nice moves by the FO.  Nobody's missing the subtractions that were a concern for many in the off season and pre-draft.  Rookies are getting supported well and not being asked to do more then they should.  The coordinators are putting a more simplified approach into action with the right focus.  They're playing for each other, as a unit, an underdog, with respected leaders Norman & Swearinger in full throttle to never give up. 

 

They can dominate any team that's not ready right now.  They can improve to dominate any team, regardless, if they keep it up. 

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3 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Those are probably best case scenarios. Lets see how the season plays itself out. I do think we have a good D but I think people are going a bit overboard calling us dominant. Dominant Ds do it over the course of a season and then postseason.

 

Agreed.  I think you earn that label after proving it week in and week out in the later part of the season. Like when you've proven yourself consistently shutting down passing or rushing attacks for 8-10 weeks in a row.  When you're constantly delivering pressures and sacks for tops in the league consistently. They're steadily rising and after punching a respected Oakland team in the nose, killing their swagger by halftime creates a surge.  Doesn't mean dominant just yet.

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Jim Tomsula - one of the best pickups for us.

 

Dorian Gray - another great pickup for the DB’s as a coach

 

Manusky- He looks like he could play LB for us.

 

coaches have instilled a Rodney Dangerfield attitude on the D that no one respects us and that is what we need week in week out.

 

DJ - best green agent pickup for us in years. What he does for communication and attitude is worth millions in just that.

 

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21 minutes ago, skinny21 said:

However, I think the general point is still valid - which defenses have better all around talent than ours?  Which defenses have fewer weak links than ours?

 

With a healthy Eric Berry, KC has more talent than we do.  So does Houston.  And Denver probably does too, although safety doesn't look as good without TJ Ward.  The Eagles might have a bit more talent too, although that secondary doesn't look nearly as good as ours sans Ronald Darby.

 

That's pretty much it though.  I don't think Carolina or Seattle have more talent on D than we do any more.

 

Top Five sounds like a good projection to me.  We're already there in terms of yards per game, I could definitely see that holding steady over the course of the year.

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So far we have a D that played incredibly well against one opponent and reasonably decent against the other 2. They have a legitimate chance to be top 10, which is a huge leap from where we were. The combination of new and better talent and coaching has produced a D with some identity.

 

But it's just too early to call them dominant,., Maybe they end up there, which of course we would all be ecstatic. But for now I am more than happy with good to very good.

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Let's put it this way...we're playing well enough that I'm already frustrated and nervous that Brown and Breeland are going to be FA's. Is Foster on the last year of his deal? 

 

Great OP, btw steve. Going through the lineup point by point like that, you're right that we may be witnessing an unlikely confluence of events leading us to a really good defensive unit. Definitely built differently than most of the recent stud defenses (with SEA's propensity for signing vets that fit their system and blossom, paired with their great defensive drafts, being the best comparison maybe).

 

Only tangentially related, but makes me want to see Cousins work out long term even more--I want more high draft picks poured into this defense to see what it can become, and needing a QB kinda ruins that on some level. 

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I'm excited. But as a Redskins fan it's like the saying goes.. fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me. I'm CAUTIOUSLY optimistic about our defense. It looks DAMN good, and things are LOOKING like it's all coming together.

 

Show me we can shut down Kareem Hunt and Alex Smith and win at Arrowhead and I am ready to DROWN IN THE KOOLAID BABY. But I need one more. I need that beating the (current) #1 team in the NFL. Take them down or hold them to no more than a touchdown or two at most and I'm getting out my mixing bowl, cuz it's time to make that koolaid. SUPERBOWLLLLLLL!!!

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https://youtu.be/2wTiIqYK4pw

11 hours ago, Koolblue13 said:

Well, this is the moral boosting shock I needed to see when I got online. 

 

Thanks y'all. Wish I got to see the game. Or the next one.

 

Hail!!!

 

http://fullmatchtv.com/oakland-raiders-washington-redskins-sep-24-2017

 

Annoying popups but should be good once the game starts. Enjoy :)

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Move over 1976 Steelers, 1985 Bears, 2000 Ravens, there's a new sheriff in town, the 2017 Washington Redskins!

 

It starts up front with Capital Punishment in the trenches

 

Ryan Kerrigan - Pro Bowl caliber edge defender that can bring the heat and lay the wood to the QB.

 

Matt Ioannidis - Hercules in the middle pushing grown men around like rag dolls, bully on the block.

 

Jonathan Allen - All-Pro potential, all around force with potential to be the best DT in the entire league.

 

Preston Smith - Showing star form he flashed during the end of his rookie season, could turn out to be a dominant edge defender.

 

Junior Galette - Showing flashes of prime years in Nawlins, explosive edge rusher.

 

Ryan Anderson - Nasty, mean, physical, violent player who should only get better as the season progresses, brings knock you out mentality to the D.

 

Ziggy Hood - Solid rotation guy, weight room leader.

 

The Mc's - Good linemen against the run.

 

Anthony Lanier - Promising prospect.

 

Brown, Foster, Spaight - dominant linebacker core, can run and hit.

 

Secondary - Norman is a stud lock down corner, Breeland is showing rookie form, Fuller is a play making machine, Moreau is waiting for his chance to shine, Nicholson could be Sean Taylor esque, covers like a blanket, runs like the wind, hits like a ton of bricks. Swearinger will knock you into next week, leader of the D. 

 

Super Bowl is within grasp!

 

 

 

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17 hours ago, RandyHolt said:

@skinny21 Another good post.

 

I too would do whatever is needed to get us into our 3-4, and go pass happy / hurry-up. Pass to Hunt and Kelce, and see how well we do having to call plays to get the correct OLB to blitz on every down, which also forces one of our stud pass rushing OLBs into pass coverage. In fact, anytime we sit Allen or Ioann go hurry up to keep them on the sideline.

 

It has only been one game, and we may have set an expectation bar on our defense that will be tough to match.  But no matter what happens, we had that one game.

Thanks man.  Good call on hurry up too.  I'll add that I'm concerned that Smith will extend plays with his feet and scramble for 1sts.  Haven't watched the Chiefs play this year, but I wonder if we see some R/O looks as well.  Wouldn't be surprised to see us spy Smith, but it's a risk to take someone out of coverage.  

 

In the twitter thread, someone mentioned having to go from stopping power vs Oakland to speed vs KC.  Gonna be a tough task.  

 

Back to the Eagles game, I'll point out that the D allowed 22 and scored a TD. We blew it on some big plays (and missed sacks), but it was pretty close to being a very good game by the D... Of course, it was their first playing together with a lot of new faces (and Nicholson hadn't stood out/earned many snaps.  We also shut down their speed backs (1 YPC), but it was a small sample size.

I said it after the game, I think we beat them in our 2nd matchup.  

 

I'll be interested to see how the Rams do against tougher teams.  Take out the 20 points scored on us and they're averaging 44 or so.  

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