2018 Comprehensive NFL Draft Thread

[Est.1974]

1 hour ago, Tay said:

 

Apparently the team feels very good about Chase Roullier at C. I thought he looked good in his role last year. Hopefully he continues to develop, and we can use assets to upgrade LG.

 

Im not convinced, think he's more really good depth. 

[Panninho]

7 minutes ago, MartinC said:

 

Here's my worry about Ronald Jones. He's listed at 6' 200. Not sure if he has been officially weighed measured yet. Let's assume that's at least somewhat accurate.Hes not going to be a 20 carry back at that size in the NFL. That's what we need in our offense.

 

We already have CT for the complementary and 3rd down role which is what I think Jones will be in the NFL. He may be more explosive and end being better than CT but for our roster I don't think he's the type of back we should be targeting. We need a 1st and 2nd down guy who can handle the workload AND who can get more than is blocked for him and convert breaks into big plays.

 

While the weight for his size is definitely not ideal, I definitely think he can be more than just a third down back. Jamaal Charles and Lesean McCoy were very comparable coming out of college and they have a similar running style. Also he might still be able to put on some weight.

I can understand that people have concerns about this but I don't think that his role will ultimately be limited to third downs. But I agree that you better know how to utilize him. Running him 25 times straight through the middle will probably not benefit your offense in the long-term.

[Skinsinparadise]

6 hours ago, UK SKINS FAN '74 said:

Seems like Reuben Fosters troubles continue. Looks like the 49ers saved us from making a mistake by trading back up for him last year. 

 

Yeah I was thinking the same.  Though I admit Reuben Foster once he start dropping in the draft became very tantalizing to me.  I recall the debates here about Malik McDowell.  I wasn't big into the dude because of character concerns mostly.  And he's not off to a hot start in that department in Seattle.  Granted though he can turn that around.

[skinny21]

27 minutes ago, UK SKINS FAN '74 said:

 

Im not convinced, think he's more really good depth. 

That’s fair.  I wouldn’t shy away from drafting a C in part because Roullier could play LG too.  I have a hunch he will start this year, have some struggles, but will be a clear upgrade over Long (or Lauvao) in the near future.  

 

One thing in his favor, IMO, he never really looked lost or overmatched out there.  That’s a great sign for a rook.  

[Silvernon]

17 minutes ago, skinny21 said:

That’s fair.  I wouldn’t shy away from drafting a C in part because Roullier could play LG too.  I have a hunch he will start this year, have some struggles, but will be a clear upgrade over Long (or Lauvao) in the near future.  

 

One thing in his favor, IMO, he never really looked lost or overmatched out there.  That’s a great sign for a rook.  

 

Well, I think he was overmatched physically. But that's the most impressive part about Roullier - he still manages to anchor down. That ability to anchor is why they'll stick with him and why they were so impressed with him. I remember @e16bball talking about Rodney Hudson and his ability to lock it down and anchor. He's been one of the best pass blocking centers in the league. 

Roullier doesn't have that athleticism to be a top C in this era, but around 10 seems attainable in time. As much as OCs love to pull a center on run plays I think it's best to have great pulling guards, so his lack of agility is a non-issue in my mind.

The problem I see (and it's minor) is that he needs the strength in the upper body to negate the slightly shorter than ideal arms. 

[Mannix]

This is a response to Redskins fans who favor spending high end draft capital on a speed receiver.  A great speed/deep threat is important, but up until this year Smith did much of his damage in the middle of the field.  The Chiefs also liked to run quite a bit of two tight end sets.  Given the make-up of the current Redskins roster (and Reed’s fragility) I think the best strategy would be try to lock down another serious option at tight end.  Even in Davis’s best years in SF his hands seemed suspect.  Maybe that’s changed in DC but in the opinion of someone who watched nearly every snap of Smith in KC, the Chiefs offense went through the tight end.  The guy that intrigues me the most is Hayden Hurst of South Carolina.  His production isn’t great but I think his qb play had something to do with that.  The guy looks more explosive than Kielce.  He moves more like a large receiver.  He also looks like he could be used as a fullback at times.

 

I would also point out that Tyreek Hill looks like a once in a generation athelete at his position.  Smith has been so reluctant to go down field previously in his career but he was throwing sometimes to a target in Hill that was so wide open you really almost were forced to go down the field more.  I’m not sure there will be a talent like that in the upcoming draft or maybe in the next few drafts that will offer Smith such an attractive option.  I could see the FO going down the Paul Richardson/Taylor Gabriel road in free agency and if the price is right that seems like a good option.

 

Christain Kirk looks like a very good prospect and if the Redskins defense was a stingier outfit I could see gambling on Kirk but in a division where you play both Dallas and Philly twice a year you better be able to stop the run.  Vita Vaea seems like an instance where need meets best player available.  Things may change as evaluations/combine unfolds but one of the scenarios I like for the Skins if they don’t trade down is Vaea in round one and Hurst in round two.  I’ve seen some sights with Hurst ranked as a mid round pick but noticed Daniel Jeremiah has him as the 34 best player in the draft. 

[HigSkin]

Interesting write up on RB ball security - Ronald Jones and Barkley top the list while Sony Michel hits the bottom.

 

http://draftscout.tsxfiles.com/2018/02/11/here-are-fumble-rates-for-nfl-draft-running-back-prospects/

 

 

[JamesMadisonSkins]

I spent too much of my day on Friday going through the two most comprehensive rankings (primarily focused on number, not quality necessarily) and averaging them out. I used CBSSports and Drafttek ... and went through each position ... now I'm not saying either of those rankings are the best. I like Matt Miller or Daniel Jeremiah ... but those guys only release Top 50 or Top 100 ... not full-on Top 300+ rankings ... at least this early.

 

1. There is a massive disparity between player rankings between the two ... some being very stark

2. The massive disparity between some of the similarly-ranked players between the two and what I've seen elsewhere.

 

Examples:

- Christian Kirk overall average ranking was #71 and #12 at WR

- Mason Rudolph was the average #4 overall and #1 QB (Huh?)

- Ogbonnia Okoronkwo was #12 overall and #1 EDGE (Chubb being a traditional DE and ranked #1/#1 by both)

- Derrius Guice #9 avg. overall and Ronald Jones #21 overall avg.

- Courtland Sutton (#1 WR / #10 Overall) ... James Washington (#2 WR / #15 overall) ahead of Calvin Ridley (#5 WR / #33 overall)

 

There are more, but once you get past Round 1/2 you start to meet some more discrepancies, but that's typically the case with any list.

[JamesMadisonSkins]

Here's the Top 32 averaged between CBSSports and Drafttek:

1. EDGE Bradley Chubb

2. FS Minkah Fitzpatrick

3. RB Saquan Barkley

4. QB Mason Rudolph

5. G Quenton Nelson

6. SS Derwin James

7. QB Josh Rosen

8. ILB Roquan Smith

9. RB Derrius Guice

10. WR Courtland Sutton

11. QB Sam Darnold

12. EDGE Ogbonnia Okoronkwo

13. 3Tech (DT) Maurice Hurst

14. EDGE Marcus Davenport

15. WR James Washington

16. CB Joshua Jackson

17. 1Tech (NT) Vita Vea

18. OT Orlando Brown

19. QB Lamar Jackson

20. OT Mike McGlinchey

21. RB Ronald Jones

22. 1Tech (NT) Da'Ron Payne

23. CB Denzel Ward

24. WR Marcell Ateman

25. 3Tech (DT) Taven Bryan

26. QB Baker Mayfield

27. OT Kolton Miller

28. EDGE Arden Key

29. CB Isaiah Oliver

30. TE Mark Andrews

31. OT Connor Williams

32. WR Anthony Miller

 

Most of these guys fit where the media has placed them, but the bolded guys are either way above or way below where I've seen them in some more respected rankings.

[CutPryorNow]

1 hour ago, Silvernon said:

 

Well, I think he was overmatched physically. But that's the most impressive part about Roullier - he still manages to anchor down. That ability to anchor is why they'll stick with him and why they were so impressed with him. I remember @e16bball talking about Rodney Hudson and his ability to lock it down and anchor. He's been one of the best pass blocking centers in the league. 

Roullier doesn't have that athleticism to be a top C in this era, but around 10 seems attainable in time. As much as OCs love to pull a center on run plays I think it's best to have great pulling guards, so his lack of agility is a non-issue in my mind.

The problem I see (and it's minor) is that he needs the strength in the upper body to negate the slightly shorter than ideal arms. 

Chase Roullieer draft analysis - http://www.nfl.com/draft/2017/profiles/chase-roullier?id=2558037

STRENGTHS

 Thick lower body with big calves and thighs. Body is built to anchor. Well-schooled and technically sound. Dips and strikes opponent with upward blow from his hips at point of attack. Bends better than expected and unlocks his leverage potential. Gritty worker who uses body control and hand strength to sustain blocks. Generates momentum into down blocks and fork-lifts defensive tackles off their spots. Good power as drive blocker, but functional in space as well. Has starting experience at both guard and center. Plays to and after whistle. Physical and tough.

[Est.1974]

48 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

24. WR Marcell Ateman

25. 3Tech (DT) Taven Bryan

26. QB Baker Mayfield

27. OT Kolton Miller

28. EDGE Arden Key

29. CB Isaiah Oliver

30. TE Mark Andrews

31. OT Connor Williams

32. WR Anthony Miller

 

Most of these guys fit where the media has placed them, but the bolded guys are either way above or way below where I've seen them in some more respected rankings.

 

Ateman is my pick at WR

[wilco_holland]

@JamesMadisonSkins like the effort but think that 2 boards average doesn't really work. Did a lot of these kind of thinks for mock drafts and they get better if you have bigger amount of boards. It also helps to put them in tires (wait is that the correct word?). 

 

What I did last year is put them in tires like. Top 10. Top 20. Late first round. Early second etc. I then got results like. Average draft position is this. High point. Low point. And 70% predicts him to be in tire 1. 

 

I used it to predict where I wanted to draft guys. If I was high on a player that was like 90% of the time in tire 6, late second. Then I'm pretty sure he will go at the point and I need to be in front of that. 

[wilco_holland]

Btw if you like draft boards. One fun thing to do is to put them in excel and put a date on it. And do that a couple of times for the same site. You will then see the players move up and down based on the off-season. It's really interesting. 

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

6 hours ago, MartinC said:

 

Here's my worry about Ronald Jones. He's listed at 6' 200. Not sure if he has been officially weighed measured yet. Let's assume that's at least somewhat accurate.Hes not going to be a 20 carry back at that size in the NFL. That's what we need in our offense.

 

We already have CT for the complementary and 3rd down role which is what I think Jones will be in the NFL. He may be more explosive and end being better than CT but for our roster I don't think he's the type of back we should be targeting. We need a 1st and 2nd down guy who can handle the workload AND who can get more than is blocked for him and convert breaks into big plays.

 

I don't know if that's true for our Offense.  Fat Rob had a high in rushing attempts with 14 in a game last season.  Maybe he would've had more if he had not been banged up.  Perine topped 20 carries 3 times.  The first of those, Fat Rob started hot, got hurt, so Perine came in.  The second of those Fat Rob had just hit IR and Chris Thompson tore his ACL part way through the game.  The third of those, Perine was basically the only RB on the roster.

 

I'm thinking with a healthy Thompson and another healthy RB, that no back gets close to 20 carries in a game unless they become "hot" and the coaches want to ride them.  Like how the Saints use both Kamara and Ingram on 1st downs.  Kamara got about 1/3rd of the attempts on 1st down.  He never had more than 12 carries in a game.

 

Anyways, here are my questions:

 

1) Let's not pretend that Ronald Jones will be the next Alvin Kamara, but let's say he has good production per touch in the NFL.  Do you think it's worth it or not worth it to spend a 2nd rounder on someone that gets good production but only has 10-15 touches a game?

 

2) 200 is light, but how much would Jones have to weigh for you to think differently?  205?  210?  What if he's not actually 6'0, but that weight is carried over a frame that's a bit shorter, say 5'11?

 

3) Chris Thompson is supposedly on track to recover well and while it was a flukish knee injury, he does have an injury history.  Do you feel comfortable enough with Thompson's health to say you don't want to draft someone with a skillset that could overlap?

 

P.S.  As for your last point, the best RB available in the 2nd round that fits what you mention is Derrius Guice, but Guice is prone to nagging injuries.

[MartinC]

25 minutes ago, Alcoholic Zebra said:

 

1) Let's not pretend that Ronald Jones will be the next Alvin Kamara, but let's say he has good production per touch in the NFL.  Do you think it's worth it or not worth it to spend a 2nd rounder on someone that gets good production but only has 10-15 touches a game?

 

2) 200 is light, but how much would Jones have to weigh for you to think differently?  205?  210?  What if he's not actually 6'0, but that weight is carried over a frame that's a bit shorter, say 5'11?

 

3) Chris Thompson is supposedly on track to recover well and while it was a flukish knee injury, he does have an injury history.  Do you feel comfortable enough with Thompson's health to say you don't want to draft someone with a skillset that could overlap?

 

P.S.  As for your last point, the best RB available in the 2nd round that fits what you mention is Derrius Guice, but Guice is prone to nagging injuries.

 

Good points questions. On the general point of the running back by committee or the bell cow - I think the reason we did't have a back get over 20 carries very often was that they were not having success. When we did have a few games were one of Rob or Perine get on a roll Gruden fed them. If we had a really good feature back who was productive I think he would regularly get 18-25 carries a game. Then CT would get his 15 touches on 7 or 8 carries and 7 or 8 catches.

 

As ti your questions ...

 

1. Yes - I do think a potentially elite 3rd down/complimentary back is worth a 2nd round pick. I think though if you have that guy you scheme to get him at least 15 touches a game not 10. But the grade on that guy will be lower for us than other teams because we have CT and roster strength is a factor in grading.

 

2. Depends on build to an extent. Guice is considered a power back and a banger. Hes listed at 5' 11" 212. Thats not that much different to Jones but he looks much more compact and powerful on the field. If Jones could put on 10lbs of muscle though and not lose explosion and speed then that might expand his potential role.

 

3. CT fractured his fibula. Recovery from that is normally very good as long as there was not extensive ligament damage the team has kept quiet. He seems confident - I would be counting on him, but the team will know much more and that will factor into how they grade backs. http://www.redskins.com/news/article-1/Still-Rehabbing-Chris-Thompson-Optimistic-Hell-Return-To-Last-Years-Form/2fba23d3-26eb-43d0-a195-285fdb8616ec

 

 

[duffy]

4 hours ago, wilco_holland said:

Btw if you like draft boards. One fun thing to do is to put them in excel and put a date on it. And do that a couple of times for the same site. You will then see the players move up and down based on the off-season. It's really interesting. 

 

Never really used excel for anything fun ?

But you're right. It's pretty interesting seeing certain players make big jumps up and down. 

[freakofthesouth]

7 hours ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

- Christian Kirk overall average ranking was #71 and #12 at WR

- Mason Rudolph was the average #4 overall and #1 QB (Huh?)

- Derrius Guice #9 avg. overall and Ronald Jones #21 overall avg.

- Courtland Sutton (#1 WR / #10 Overall) ... James Washington (#2 WR / #15 overall) ahead of Calvin Ridley (#5 WR / #33 overall)

 

 

Ive seen CBS sports list Rudolph as their Top ranked QB.  Interesting... 

 

also so notable that RBs are going maybe a bit earlier than expected??

 

Its not surprising to me to see such a high standard deviation for Christian Kirk.  Given his team’s offensive woes and not ideal true #1 body type, folks have him in different spots:

 

https://saturdayblitz.com/2017/10/26/texas-am-football-christian-kirk-nations-best-receiver/

Quote

1. He should be the first receiver picked in the 2018 NFL Draft

NFL teams will take a page out of what franchises like the Kansas City Chiefs and Seattle Seahawks have gotten from players like Tyreek Hill and Tyler Lockett. Kirk offers the same versatility as both those NFL talents.

 

Per Daniel Jeremiah, 1 team executive says Kirk has the “highest floor” of any WR prospect, and D.J. calls Kirk a “very safe pick”.  Also says this re WR depth in the draft (important!):

 

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000881191/article/ask-5-which-college-football-wr-is-the-best-nfl-prospect

Quote

It's still relatively early in the evaluation process, but I believe the 2018 draft class will feature tremendous talent and depth at quarterback and running back. Now, the class at the wide receiver position might end up lacking depth, but there are a couple of very intriguing players who could be in the group.

 

This would obviously include Ridley who is also extremely good and ready to contribute (although he’s already 24), Sutton, who is a bit more of a project and to me offers a very similar skill set to Doctson and we already kinda have that role covered, and James Washington who is not a polished route runner but has great speed. He also had arguably th best QB in CFB (per CBS Sports!) throwing the football to him.  Kirk had 6 different QBs in 3 years and played in the SEC.  with all that said, Kirk still was known to some as the best player in the SEC, the most competitive conference in CFB by far.

 

 

 

 

[Reaper Skins]

15 hours ago, Alcoholic Zebra said:

 

3) Chris Thompson is supposedly on track to recover well and while it was a flukish knee injury, he does have an injury history.  Do you feel comfortable enough with Thompson's health to say you don't want to draft someone with a skillset that could overlap?

 

I'd like to see what Kapri Bibbs can do if given a whole offseason to learn the playbook.  I was impressed how quickly he was able to come in and contribute.

[Skinsinparadise]

https://www.ndtscouting.com/williamson-personnel-fits-bischoff-mock-draft/

13. Washington Redskins – Derwin James, S, Florida State

James has the potential to be a monster in the NFL after what some considered a down year at Florida State. He has incredible movement skills and is a violent hitter, and he can quickly become the anchor of the back end of the Redskins defense.

---

Matt Williamson’s Reaction: Some in the draft community seem to be more down on James than they were a year ago. I bet that changes in a huge way after the Combine. In fact, and I know few are saying this right now, but I bet James isn’t even on the board for Washington in the first round. Therefore, this is a great pickup even though S’ua Cravens will be returning. If it isn’t James, I almost feel like the Redskins should take the best defensive player available.

[wilco_holland]

1 hour ago, Reaper Skins said:

I'd like to see what Kapri Bibbs can do if given a whole offseason to learn the playbook.  I was impressed how quickly he was able to come in and contribute.

 

This is something I was discussing about with a friend. 

 

The trend was always. Don't go RB early because anybody can run and they have pretty short careers. Every year a late round or undrafted back finds his way in a starting line-up and has succes. 

 

Now we see a trend that teams see value in RBs again because they add a dimension to the O that makes it harder to defend. It's no longer just a runner but a hybrid player. 

 

Now I get to the discussion part (damm I'm really bad in making short English posts). 

 

His point: we tried mid and late round backs. Perine, Jones, Kelley but you see they add nothing. They don't create on there own. You need to invest in a good one that can make stuff happen. Both in running and passing. Change a 2 yard run into a 40 yard TD type of guy.

 

My point: It's not just the back. I do agree that these guys don't create on there own but 80% of the running game is on the blocking. As long as our TE and oline can't create holes, the RB has nothing to work with. We need to get more our of the blocking and then guys like Perine will be good enough to support our off game plan. 

 

Howdo you guys think about that?

[wilco_holland]

Matt Williamson’s Reaction: Some in the draft community seem to be more down on James than they were a year ago. I bet that changes in a huge way after the Combine. 

 

From 2017 article: 

James is a chiseled 6-foot-3 and 215 pounds, with strength and explosiveness that set him apart even in one of the most talented locker rooms in the country. He can bench press 450 pounds, and he's approached 600 on the squat rack. He's broad jumped 11 feet, 3 inches, which would have ranked him in the top five among more than 300 players at the 2017 NFL Scouting Combine. You want speed? He was clocked at 4.49 seconds in the 40-yard dash at the Nike Opening coming out of high school

 

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000844755/article/derwin-james-scouts-see-future-nfl-star-in-freakish-fsu-safety

 

Does are numbers that will pop at the combine. 

[OVCChairman]

6 minutes ago, wilco_holland said:

 

 

His point: we tried mid and late round backs. Perine, Jones, Kelley but you see they add nothing. They don't create on there own. You need to invest in a good one that can make stuff happen. Both in running and passing. Change a 2 yard run into a 40 yard TD type of guy.

 

My point: It's not just the back. I do agree that these guys don't create on there own but 80% of the running game is on the blocking. As long as our TE and oline can't create holes, the RB has nothing to work with. We need to get more our of the blocking and then guys like Perine will be good enough to support our off game plan. 

 

Howdo you guys think about that?

 

It's true...but it's a lot deeper.

 

1. The O-line.  Very few have the ability to succeed in spite of it.  See Leveon Bell.

2. Vision

3. Burst

4. Top Speed

5. Stamina

 

The O-line has to absolutely open the holes, but the RB has to do something with it.   I've seen Kelley plow into the back of his LG to get a 3 yard gain.. Positive yards, but a cutback lane may have opened.  Kelley doesn't have the speed or quickness to take advantage of that as well.  Perine is in the same camp.  Perine is a little better IMHO because he has better top end then Kelley.  When Perine hits a hole at speed, he looks really good.  The problem is the hole isn't always telegraphed like the red sea.  Thompson is so good at the draw because he can utilize that cutback quickness and usually he can pick the right hole.  

 

It's easier to find 5 capable O-lineman, then it is to find a uniquely talented back that can be successful in spite of them. 

[wilco_holland]

@OVCChairman just took the middle ground of two opinions. But I get it. Isn't kinda chicken and the egg. The RB needs to be able to see (vision) the hole and hit it hard (burst). The oline needs to provide the hole. 

 

Question would then be. Do we have the RB with the vision and burst? Do we have the right blocking players? If we don't have them, where do we find them? 

[OVCChairman]

Just now, wilco_holland said:

@OVCChairman just took the middle ground of two opinions. But I get it. Isn't kinda chicken and the egg. The RB needs to be able to see (vision) the hole and hit it hard (burst). The oline needs to provide the hole. 

 

Question would then be. Do we have the RB with the vision and burst? Do we have the right blocking players? If we don't have them, where do we find them? 

lol sorry..

 

i was actually agreeing with you.  My point was that there are players out there that truly are good enough to be successful as long as they have just a minimal effect from the O-line.  Leveon Bell is the prime example.  Watch him run.  He's constantly cutting back, shifting, and as soon as there is a gap, he's got the burst to get going fast.  Then there are people like Zeke Elliott.  He's got enough talent to be a game changer, but he's behind the best O-line in football.  Alfred Morris averaged 4.8ypc while Elliot was suspended.  Elliot has the ability to take it to the house on any play, but I don't believe he's truly 'elite.'  The difference between him and Alf is the speed to get outside, which gives Elliot the ability to get longer runs.  

 

The response to your buddy is perfect... it's not likely that we will find a talent good enough to be truly effective, until we have a better line.  We have pieces, but we still need a LG, a blocking TE, and Rouillier to continue building at C.  Till then... we're just running into walls the majority of the time.  

[clskinsfan]

2 hours ago, wilco_holland said:

 

The trend was always. Don't go RB early because anybody can run and they have pretty short careers. Every year a late round or undrafted back finds his way in a starting line-up and has succes. 

 

 

 

While I agree with this to an extent. If you look at all of the top RB's last year, they were all first or second round picks. Yes. You can get a serviceable starter in later rounds. But if you want a game changer at RB you have to spend a top pick on one. 

 

Johnson, Bell, Gurley, Hunt, Kamara, Mccoy, Elliott, Ingram, Fournette, Cook and Henry.....All picked in the first 2 rounds.

 

There are some exceptions though..Freeman, Howard, Dion Lewis and Powell off of the top of my head. Freeman and Howard were absolute draft steals IMO. 

 

If you want to know how bad the state of the RB position is for the Redskins take a look at this list. Our highest rated runner is Perine at number 78 overall. Other teams backups are rated higher than our starter at RB. Pathetic!

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2752016-nfl1000-ranking-the-top-running-backs-of-2017-season