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Presidential Election: 11/3/20 ---Now the President Elect Joe Biden Thread

88Comrade2000

By 88Comrade2000
in The Tailgate

TK
Message added by TK,

 

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spjunkies

spjunkies

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, visionary said:

That Trump memo is scary, because they know the red mirage effect is very possible and tv anchors are likely to mention it.  This might end up feeding the perception that Trump and co were right.  Also seems to go along with the idea that he wants to cut off votes that come in late or after tomorrow evening.

 

Played their hand too early. That memo could easily come back to haunt them big time.

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China

Posted
Posted

Exit Polls Can Be Misleading — Especially This Year

 

Exit polls are usually a core component of election-night reporting — especially before real results come in. They can provide an early sense of which candidate is leading and how certain key demographics voted. But here at FiveThirtyEight, we won’t be covering exit polls much at all, at least not on election night. That’s because pandemic-related changes to how the exit polls are being conducted will make them even less reliable this year.

 

Even under ideal conditions, exit polls can be misleading. People often use them to suss out the horse race while waiting for results to get insight into who’s winning, but exit polls aren’t intended to be used this way. Really, what they’re designed to do is help explain how a candidate won after everything is said and done, breaking down a candidate’s support using various demographic variables like gender, race and education. (For example, they made it really easy to tease out how the gender gap between Democratic and Republican support has grown with time.)

 

But exit polls should not be used as a way to gauge a candidate’s support in real time. For starters, exit poll numbers can — and do — change over the course of election night, so you should be especially skeptical of the earliest exit-poll numbers, typically released around 5 p.m. Eastern. By definition, this first wave of exit polls are incomplete: Polling places are still open, and who’s represented in the electorate could change. For example, people who vote early on Election Day tend to be older than the electorate at large, which can skew the numbers some.

 

As the night wears on, though, more interviews get added to the sample, and the exit polls become much more representative of voters as a whole. In fact, exit polls are eventually weighted to match the final results, but that only happens after the election is over. On election night itself, the numbers are reweighted as more data becomes available, but what you’re seeing is still subject to a lot of uncertainty — especially this year given that the pandemic has radically transformed the way we run elections.

 

To account for this, Edison Research — the polling firm that produces the exit polls used by ABC News, CBS News, CNN and NBC News — has changed its methodology so that the “exit polls” you see on Nov. 3 will actually be a combination of traditional exit polls of Election Day voters and phone polls of mail voters. In certain states, there will also be exit polls of early in-person voters, conducted at early-voting locations in essentially the same way as traditional exit polls (just conducted earlier).

 

But exit polls will still be less reliable this year because the phone poll and the early exit poll are much tougher to get right than the traditional exit poll.

 

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spjunkies

spjunkies

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Destino said:

If Biden isn’t winning tomorrow night because mail in votes aren’t counted, Trump is going to send this nation into chaos.  It’s that simple.

 

I agree widespread chaos will takeover this country if he tries to pull any shenanigans. Let's hope this thing goes smoothly. 

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Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, visionary said:

 

 

 

 

 

First, with all that fat, you'd think he'd be insulated from the cold.  But I guess it shows what a **** he is because he can't even handle 45 degrees,.

 

Next I expect him to start talking about hydroponic missiles, and how we grow them in the ground.

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Dan T.

Dan T.

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Posted


 

42 minutes ago, tshile said:

Ok I finally have a legitimate gripe with the mail in voting thing. And by legitimate gripe I mean I thought of something I think is legitimate and simply haven’t heard an explanation yet 

 

so when do we stop counting? How do we know when all of them that have been mailed, have made it? What’s the standard there? How do we know more ballots will come in tomorrow (tomorrow bring ambiguous here) vs we’ve counted all the ones there are to count?

 

I imagine in some cases the difference will outweigh the number of eligible voters left so it won’t matter if we do or don’t count them, much like absentee votes. But not all. Certainly not the ones they’ll fight the most over 
 

 

The National Conference of State Legislatures has a table that lists  - State-by-State - absentee and mail in voting policies in effect for the 2020 election, including deadlines for receipt of ballots.. 

 

 

https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/absentee-and-mail-voting-policies-in-effect-for-the-2020-election.aspx

 

 

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Federal authorities expected to erect 'non-scalable' fence around White House

 

Federal authorities are expected to put back into place a "non-scalable" fence around the entire perimeter of the White House on Monday as law enforcement and other agencies prepare for possible protests surrounding the election, a source with knowledge of the matter confirmed to CNN.

 

The fence, the same type that was put up during protests this summer, will encompass the Ellipse and Lafayette Square. It will go down 15th Street to Constitution Avenue and then over to 17th Street. The fence will then run up to H Street and across by Lafayette, and then come down 15th Street, the source said.


NBC News was first to report the new fencing. A Secret Service spokeswoman declined to comment to CNN, saying the agency does not comment on security measures.


The extra layer of security marks the most high-profile example to date of authorities preparing for unrest following this year's election, particularly if there is no clear winner come November 4.

 

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Fergasun

Fergasun

Posted
Posted

Wow... our President leading and egging on a chant of "Lebron James sucks!!!"  and digging on NFL players... Yeah, that's not racist....

 

Looks like Marco enjoys the Trump populism speech a little too much.  

 

I don't even think Trump bothers to list what he will do.  It would have been great if during the debate Biden ask him to list why the crime bill was so great... 4 or 5 things. Trump has no idea what's in the crime bill.  

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mammajamma

mammajamma

Posted
Posted
43 minutes ago, visionary said:

That Trump memo is scary, because they know the red mirage effect is very possible and tv anchors are likely to mention it.  This might end up feeding the perception that Trump and co were right.  Also seems to go along with the idea that he wants to cut off votes that come in late or after tomorrow evening.  They may be also trying to pressure networks into calling states early and suppress voters in long lines.  I wonder if Fox will do that.

just strange because it looks like biden has a really strong chance of leading in FL, GA, NC, AZ, & potentially TX by the end of tomorrow. so if they really want to stop then, it doesnt matter what PA looks like

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Renegade7

Renegade7

Posted
Posted
30 minutes ago, TryTheBeal! said:

I just wanna say that I foresee no outcomes in the next 48 hours that are ideal or satisfactory.

 

I expect widespread but isolated violence.

 

Something like Summer 2020, but I don't see it getting beyond that.  Some states will get stolen, but likely only enough to cost Biden the senate, not the presidency.  It's January I got my eye on, honestly.

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Fergasun

Fergasun

Posted
Posted

I never heard of this "red mirage".  The networks hire professionals to look at the results and make "calls".  That is how it has worked.  The campaigns don't get to make the "calls".  

 

Did people just forget how this goes every 2 years?  

 

The one they screwed up recently was Florida 2000.... 

 

Fox News even has professionals that make the calls.   Not their right wing editorial people.  

 

In 2016:

1030 pm eastern -- Ohio called for Trump

1100 pm eastern -- Florida called for Trump

1115 pm eastern -- North Carlona for Trump

0130 am eastern -- Pennsylvian for Trump

0230 am eastern -- Wisconsin called for Trump

 

Now, we have no idea how the mail-ins will affect the count, but I am sure professionals will be able to tell with a certain number of counties and precincts how this thing is looking.  

 

 

 

 

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