Lets Say We Do Nothing Else: Are there enough weapons here?

[bobandweave]

Depth Chart analysis from Bob. Take this for what it is worth, there is a tldr section at the bottom so skip there if you don't like to read.

 

Starting at the QB ah hell that's another thread. Skipping the QB.....restarting at the RB..

 

Robert Kelly. He was undrafted and contributed here last season which if you follow my posts you would know I'm always high on those guys. Way surpassed what we and the "experts" thought about him. I mean it's amazing we even know who "Fat Rob" actually is. Did you know he joined us after carrying less then 70 times his final season in college which is mind blowing when you think about it, wonder how he got an invite?

 

Now the good - Ranked 24th in the league last year in total rushing yards, and didn't get to start half of the year. One of only 13 RBs last year who had more then 160 total carries. More numbers - 4.1 yards a carry ranked him in the leagues top 20, however the best stat I can find for this? One of only 5 RBs in the top 20 who never fumbled all season. More goodies, had the single best RB performance game we've seen since 2012 against the Packers with 138 rushing yards and THREE TDs! Now I capitalize that because what's disappointing about him is that half of his TDs this past season came in that single game, all season he only had 6 TDs which was disappointing.

 

Now the bad, his week 15 game against the Panthers: 9 rushes for 8 rushing yards. He lacks top end speed, he doesn't catch, he is too predictable when he's in the game, and we don't seem very committed as an offense to the run

 

Behind him we have mini Sproles, Mr Underappreciated Chris Thompson and for some stupid reason we still have Matt Jones on the roster. My biggest gripe last off season was the false idea that we would be okay with Matt Jones as the starter. That controversial point of view caused a lot of angst with some of you but I was right. Matt Jones is only on the team now because he was a high-middle third round pick. If he was undrafted like Kelley no way he is still on the team today. He is terrible and is taking up a roster spot better served elsewhere. Not even getting into the guy who was the top rated RB over Todd Gurley lots of you point out way too much. He's made of glass. Not worth a spot on the roster. Can't make the roster when your in the tub all the time in my world. 

 

 I think Kelley needs a better backup slash co-starter next to him. If we really want to be good in the red zone a bruising RB like Free Agents (as of this posting) - Deangelo Williams, Eddie Lacy, Legarret Blount, or Matt Asiata - would really help. Not only for depth but to confuse the other team when we want to run there. Is this fair to Kelley? Not really, but that's the NFL today. I don't like where the RBs are at today and we need someone else here with Fat Rob. 

 

I know many of you are going to look at that and say "we can draft someone" but to me that's wasted resources. We do not employ a coach that wants to rush more then he does now. He is a passing first coach. Even if we got Leonard Fornette would that change? No, so why bother with using that value capital when it can be used elsewhere? We don't know Rob Kelley's full potential yet. We need to stay with him another year and the best way to commit to him is to get a vet who can get us 2 yards when we only need one. 

 

As for the receivers, we are not okay here. 

 

Starters are Terrell Pryor, Jamison Crowder and who? I know your gonna say "Bob what about Josh Doctson?" but I'm gonna say again, in my world you don't make the team from the tub. As for Pryor, I like him a lot. Fine with him there. As for Crowder it confused me last year why Kirk stopped going to him late in the year. Crowders splits - 40 receptions weeks 1-8, 26 receptions weeks 9-16. Last three games of the year he totaled 7 catches. He was healthy, he was in good matchups against defenses against the slot receiver yet he was nearly invisible. Why did this happen when the team must have known they were going away from the two receivers that left? Crowder is a serious breakout candidate this upcoming year but its far from certain we get the receiver from the first half of the season and not the second. Making it more dire to add depth here. 

 

Who else is on the roster besides those guys I mentioned? Maurice Harris, Kendal Thompson, Ryan Grant, Matt Hazel, and Reggie Diggs. Wut?

 

If you think that our receivers are in good shape with Pryor and Crowder from what it was last year the answer is no. Not hardly. So what are the options for adding some pass catchers here since we seemingly have only added Pryor? FA is completely picked over. That leaves the NFL draft, and I expect us to draft a receiver high this year again barring a trade for a wideout. Why? Because the team knows we need capable guys in there to catch the ball not just warm bodies. 

 

I do hope that Doctson can one day be the guy we hoped he will be but counting on that without seeing it first is dangerous. I know you want a DT in round one, I think we add another receiver instead. We have to make up for the 135 receptions that walked out the door if we don't want to see a drop off which is why I think we end up with one of John Ross, Corey Davis, Ju-Ju, Dee Dee, or Mike Williams this year. If you don't like  that well having too much is never a bad thing. We don't have enough here. 

 

As for TE, ummm if you can tell me when Reed will have his next concussion I can give you my honest appraisal. Since no one can, I can tell you that I was listening to some experts talking about Reed today and they said they don't expect him to make it to the end of this season. I know horrible thing to say but this is an honest post. Without Reed we have decent depth but is it exciting? No. Do we have a high enough ceiling without Reed at TE? This year I will say yes. So fingers crossed Reed makes it through a full year and that's all I'm gonna say about this. 

 

TLDR people and conclusion - Bob does not think the offense has evolved to what we had last year, I think we need a RB and a WR to have an offense that will scare other teams and put enough points on the board to be in any playoff talks.

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

5 minutes ago, Morneblade said:

 

Grant is terrible. Harris already looks like a better WR. I think Pryor is a real threat. His size/speed combination is something we do not see everyday. And if Doctson is healthy, he creates issues as well on the outside.

He is.  But Gruden has a man-crush on him because he does what he's coached to do.  Apparently former GMSM wanted to keep Ross, but GrudAllen overruled him to keep Grant.  

 

Id put the chance of Grant starting at WR at 60% because Gruden is stubborn about this.  I hope I'm wrong.

[Morneblade]

Just now, bowhunter said:

Jackson ran a 4.35 at his NFL combine

Pryor ran a 4.39!  Yet is 6" taller. If he ever gets his whole game going you are correct in him becoming a real threat.

 

Exactly, and not a lanky WR either. Also, keep in mind that he had over 1000 yards receiving on the Browns in his 2nd year playing the position. The same Browns, that started 6 QB's. Maybe most important, he apparently works his ass off.

[TheShredder]

Unless you have a 3 down #1 RB, then you're going to have the need for 3-4 RBs each year.  No need to sign a FA running back anymore.  Each year, some rookie leads the league in rushing yards.  Their run out of the league in 4-5 years with all the wear and tear they take.  That's why they're not getting huge contracts anymore.  You point at the Bell's new contract, however that an anomaly and not the larger trend.

 

You're almost always drafting another RB each year at this point.  Not necessary to trade up as there's plenty of production in the later rounds (ie, Morris).

Kelly is fine.  He'll get carries and if he doesn't cough up the ball and stays in the game, then he'll get enough production to facilitate an improvement in the running game.  In order for that to happen they have to replace LG.  That's the weakest link in an otherwise close to dominate OL.  

[TheGreatBuzz]

7 minutes ago, TheShredder said:

Unless you have a 3 down #1 RB, then you're going to have the need for 3-4 RBs each year.  No need to sign a FA running back anymore.  Each year, some rookie leads the league in rushing yards.  Their run out of the league in 4-5 years with all the wear and tear they take.  That's why they're not getting huge contracts anymore.  You point at the Bell's new contract, however that an anomaly and not the larger trend.

 

You're almost always drafting another RB each year at this point.  Not necessary to trade up as there's plenty of production in the later rounds (ie, Morris).

Kelly is fine.  He'll get carries and if he doesn't cough up the ball and stays in the game, then he'll get enough production to facilitate an improvement in the running game.  In order for that to happen they have to replace LG.  That's the weakest link in an otherwise close to dominate OL.  

I've also thought this about RBs.  Sure their are anomalies like AP.  Do you think Zeke will be am AP or a flash in the pan and gone in a few years?

 

I'm hoping for the latter.

[DogofWar1]

Depends on Doctson and if any RB can actually stick for more than 6 games.

 

If Doctson is healthy and has any chemistry with Kirk, then probably enough.  Similarly, if an RB can start playing well, we'll be in pretty decent shape.  If we get both we're golden, so long as there are no major injuries.  If we get one, we're probably okay, we basically lacked the latter last year anyway and we did pretty well.

 

If we have neither, we'll likely struggle.  Pryor, Crowder, and Reed/Davis are good, but I question if they're enough.  They'd probably be enough WITH a running game, but without a running game we're in a tough spot.

[bobandweave]

2 hours ago, TheGreatBuzz said:

I've also thought this about RBs.  Sure their are anomalies like AP.  Do you think Zeke will be am AP or a flash in the pan and gone in a few years?

 

I'm hoping for the latter.

 

Check out the history of RBs leading the league one year and how they do the next, you will like that

[Burgundy Yoda]

Crowder's improvement is just as important as Doctson proving he was worth the 1st round selection. If Crowder takes a big leap, we won't need as much from Doctson. 

 

As of right now I kind of see our 3 WR's playing at a very similar level, and us having a hard time telling which one is our true #1. This is a good thing though, it means we'll be balanced. 

[nkoucheki]

Seems like there's a real mixed bag on Doctson and he's going to be a big part of this. Now I'll be honest, I cheered when we drafted him. For once I did the homework found a player I liked and the idiots drafted him. The injury was a big time buzzkill. I just can't really put my faith in him until I see him putting on in the regular season. My only memory of him to this point was Jay calling 3 fades to him, on the goal line, in a row. But that's more of a Jay indictment, huh

[Rattlesnake88]

This offense just got better I think. As long as Doctson stays healthy then we now have three awesome red zone targets in the passing game. We are a guard and a good rb away from best offense in football. 

[Morneblade]

4 hours ago, TheShredder said:

Unless you have a 3 down #1 RB, then you're going to have the need for 3-4 RBs each year.  No need to sign a FA running back anymore.  Each year, some rookie leads the league in rushing yards.  Their run out of the league in 4-5 years with all the wear and tear they take.  That's why they're not getting huge contracts anymore.  You point at the Bell's new contract, however that an anomaly and not the larger trend.

 

You're almost always drafting another RB each year at this point.  Not necessary to trade up as there's plenty of production in the later rounds (ie, Morris).

Kelly is fine.  He'll get carries and if he doesn't cough up the ball and stays in the game, then he'll get enough production to facilitate an improvement in the running game.  In order for that to happen they have to replace LG.  That's the weakest link in an otherwise close to dominate OL.  

 

This. If you extrapolate Fat Rob's rookie season over a 16 game season you get 1250 yards and 10 TD's. That will do. He's not a great back, but the biggest issue we had running the ball was soft run blocking. He also had 46 receptions his soph. year at Tulane, so he can catch the ball.

[RandyHolt]

I would like to add an all down back. Yeah Thompson is great, but he is our only one.

 

I think teams need 2 in the modern era. It makes defending based on personnel packages more difficult. Look at all the stout run Ds we faced to close out the year. We literally ran Kelly into a brick wall for a month if not 2. Running into it for the sake of running did not lead to victory. Those are games to ft hands backs IMO - at least to start games and try to build a lead.

 

When in doubt, look at what the Pats do. Dion Lewis and James White cause problems. One is not enough IMO, as backs take a lot of abuse and need a limited workload. There are many times when teams game plan to go pass happy, or are forced to do so, almost weekly at end of halves or when losing.  Backs need breathers.

 

[Bang]

8 hours ago, Cliffmark1 said:

I think Pryor was brought in as KC replacement. We may use him as a wr but I bet danny puts him under center for at least a few snaps and maybe a few seasons. 

This is pretty cool. it is 6:40 in the morning, and i may have already read the craziest thing i'm going to read all day.

 

Joking aside, I have to disagree here. Even when he played QB he didn't' really play QB. I could see an option pass or two maybe, but behind center, no way. Not even on his most fantasiest days of fantasy would Dan consider that. (And if he did, Jay would be right to check Dan's pharmaceuticals.)

frankly, i think on those option passes, he'd be better as the target rather than the passer.

Such HUGE hands! Gronkowski hands!

 

~Bang

[Koolblue13]

I really hope Matt Jones can get his head out of his ass. That kid has a world of potential, especially as the third down back.

[Burgold]

Some good analysis here. I think Pryor and Crowder could make an effective pair of starting receivers. If we combine that with Reed and Davis on the field and get Thompson into some routes... that'll be tough for D's  not playing nickle. That said, I think it's safe to presume that we take a step back this year. Pryor has only been a receiver for 2 years and now has to learn an entire new system while still learning how to be a wide receiver. I trust Crowder. He's good and getting better. Harris has really good hands. I'd say close to elite hands. I have no idea how he is at route running and everything else. I have a feeling he got open last year because opposing secondaries were so concerned with everyone else, but as a UDFA he contributed and flashed. I hope he can make a jump. Doctson will enter his rookie year. The good news is that mentally he should be more up to speed than a rookie. The bad news is that he never even really practiced against NFL speed or seen live how NFL defenses will cover him. I hope he will contribute, but I'm hoping that at best he produces like a good rookie receiver... and that's not counting the injuries.

 

Kieth Marshall is the running back on our roster that intrigues me. He really didn't do anything exciting in preseason and then he got hurt, but he's got the measurables size, speed, power, catching to be something. Can he stay on the field? Can he learn not to run at full speed and let a play develop? Kelley looks to be a pretty good singles hitter. As long as you don't need a homerun and just want a man on base, Kelley can get you 2-4 yards pretty consistently. He will break tackles and wiggle through the initial hole. He's a good make something out of nothing back. Thompson had a really solid year last year and finally didn't get hurt.

 

Overall, I think we are not as good at this moment on offense, but that wasn't the question. The question was do we have enough weapons and the answer to that is yes.

[RandyHolt]

2 hours ago, Koolblue13 said:

I really hope Matt Jones can get his head out of his ass. That kid has a world of potential, especially as the third down back.

 

He just seems raw to me as a runner and I am not sure that is easily going to change. Especially since lead backs typically graduate to the NFL ready to run it. He had some injury concerns, and then the mental / fumbling issues.  Fumbling isn't 100% mental but can become so. He fell from grace rather quickly and I think drafting a back in an early round speaks volumes to his chances with the team next season. And presumed Marshall as well, who didn't seem to impress in his limited time healthy.

 

Mack Brown may have bumped both down the ladder.

[bobandweave]

10 hours ago, TheShredder said:

Unless you have a 3 down #1 RB, then you're going to have the need for 3-4 RBs each year - Guess you missed where I said above this that there were only 13 RBs in the NFL last year who had over 160 carries. There is no such thing as a 3 down RB anymore.

 

No need to sign a FA running back anymore - Wrong. Team construction occurs in many ways. The draft is not the only place to go and taking RBs in the draft is more risky then taking one in FA. So many of you don't understand how well run franchises are put together today. You have draft picks, you have FA. To construct a team you need to effectively utilize both. Why draft a RB when you can have an established guy for just cash? Doesn't make sense unless your teams up against the cap. Last year the leagues #1 TD scoring RB was a FA pickup.

 

Each year, some rookie leads the league in rushing yards - Nice story but also wrong. Over the past decade that's most recent 10 year span, only once did a rookie lead the NFL in rushing yards - Last year Elliot. This is simply untrue

 

Their run out of the league in 4-5 years with all the wear and tear they take.  That's why they're not getting huge contracts anymore - This is also wrong. The NFL works in supply and demand. Right now the NFL is looking at the draft and seeing a lot of talent there. On top of that there is a lot of talent in FA for RBs. When supply out gains demand prices decrease. What we have today is a large supply of RBs between the draft and FA so teams are waiting to see who will slip in the draft before signing a FA. If you think that guys like Latavius Murray, Jamaal Charles, Adrian Peterson, Deangelo Williams, Eddie Lacy, Legarret Blount, and Rex Burkhead will not be in the NFL this year just because they aren't signed as of March 14th then your wrong. They will all make teams this year. NFL teams are just waiting it out with them, which is why imo we should be jumping in early on this group because when everyone zigs you should zag. Once the dominos start falling and guys start signing prices will increase.

 

[bobandweave]

2 hours ago, Koolblue13 said:

I really hope Matt Jones can get his head out of his ass. That kid has a world of potential, especially as the third down back. - Say what? Potential? Sorry but the numbers don't lie. Before the 16 season he was the worst RB in the NFL according to his ypc. He averaged only 3.4 yards as a rookie. When you looked at how many RBs got at least 140 carries he produced the least from all of them around the league. Then last season he continued to struggle with holding onto the ball and while he outpaced what he did in 15 for ypc, his numbers were putrid. He had 99 carries, fumbled 4 times. By comparison a RB named Mike Gillislee had 2 more carries then Jones, but had more then 100 more rushing yards then he did and scored 4 more TDs. I don't see the potential here. I see a draft mistake that these powers in charge want to get something out of at the expense of improving the team. He's done

 

[bobandweave]

2 hours ago, Burgold said:

Keith Marshall is the running back on our roster that intrigues me. He really didn't do anything exciting in preseason and then he got hurt, but he's got the measurables size, speed, power, catching to be something. Can he stay on the field? Can he learn not to run at full speed and let a play develop? - Truth is Marshall was drafted after doing nothing for the previous few years. Like nothing in college, high water mark was 758 yards rushing in 2012 and he played four years. He's always hurt, but everyone likes to mention how he was a 5 star recruit out of high school when talking about him. That was 6 years ago. Time to move on, the reason why he fell to the 7th to us is because teams know this about him. But we should all know when it comes to these guys without results to back it up potential is just another word for disappointment

 

[Koolblue13]

1 hour ago, bobandweave said:

 

Not sure why you quoted me like that.

 

Anyway.

 

I'm not saying Jones is some great white hope for us. Hes big and fast and the only thing keeping him on the bench, is him.

 

I was his biggest critic last year and I doubt it changes, but it would certainly help.

[Burgold]

Oh, you're probably right about Marshall, bobandweave, but he was a rookie and so I figure he deserves at least two training camps to prove himself and for us fans to root for him to realize his potential.

[bobandweave]

1 minute ago, Koolblue13 said:

Not sure why you quoted me like that. - Because this is a thread to discuss reality from false hope to me. It's an honest thread. You saying that Matt Jones has potential when he's shown nothing of the sort since we drafted him or that he can somehow replace Chris Thompson as our third down back is without merit. There is nothing special about this guy and we've wasted far too much time and resources on him. All of the experts think he will not make the final 53 man roster this year and is out. Chris Thompson mean while is a more then capable 3rd down RB who has produced for us and done very well at it. There is nothing of substance to Matt Jones he's a wasted draft pick

 

I'm not saying Jones is some great white hope for us. Hes big and fast and the only thing keeping him on the bench, is him. - When your a failure that tends to happen, not sure why you think he deserves to come off the bench as a third down back when we are in great hands there now. Doesn't make sense to me

 

[MEANDWARF]

Wr may be set if we add another vet such as Bolden(but he may be looking for a contender to sign with). Not happy with our Rbs though. Let's face it Kelley, Thompson or Jones do not make any DC sweat when they are about to face us.

[Koolblue13]

1 hour ago, bobandweave said:

 

"You're" a failure. Not your.

 

Why are you so angry already this morning?

1 hour ago, Burgold said:

Oh, you're probably right about Marshall, bobandweave, but he was a rookie and so I figure he deserves at least two training camps to prove himself and for us fans to root that he can prove himself  or realize his potential.

Be interesting to see if he can stay healthy and make it through the year on the PS.

[SkinssRvA]

We should honestly cut matt jones and 51.  Neither one should have a spot on an nfl roster.