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The Rob Kelley Thread.


TradeTheBeal!

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On 11/14/2016 at 11:04 PM, goskins10 said:

 

Several of you are missing the point. You see it as luck because in "your opinion", the situation did not look good. But the fact is you had not looked through 100s of hours of tape, interviewed guys (either yourself or people that work for you), talked to scouts who watched the games and then seen all they went through in OTAs and PS (neither have I, so not just saying you).

The FO researched the living **** out of these guys. Yes there is a little bit of luck. But it's work, research and numbers. That's why Scot wants all the picks he can get and then they clearly research UDFAs. So no, it's not "serious luck" that Kelley worked out. It was the result of a whole lot of work by scouting team, the FO, the coaching staff and Kelley himself. So while us fans did not see it as a good situation, the coaches saw it differently.

 

I don't think I was posting here at the time, but this pretty much sums up how I've been since Scot took over for most positions. I do favor certain players over others, but in general I've seen a much better investment in the draft, UDFAs, the practice squad, and other team's free agents. This goes back to Bruce Allen's year as GM but I feel like he was bringing in names whereas Scot is doing a better job of bringing in players. And its to the point where we're building our depth. Last year we had Alfred and Matt but we didn't have confidence in the guys we had in preseason to pick one of those guys up mid season. So we wound up bringing in Thomas. I think this goes against Scot's philosophy as he'd rather bring in guys he's developed and nurtured. But we saw a similar thing with Whitner this season. Our safety poop is dry, so we're forced to play our hand in the FA pool rather than bringing in a free agent.

People can call it luck, but there's a reason that guys like Kelley, Dunbar, Compton, Lanier, Everett, Harris, Nseche, become contributors. People can point to Phillips or Jarrett or Bates and think that these guys are bums and will turn to nothing, or that its all luck, but there's a certain work ethic, a certain ability to grasp concepts, a willingness to play special teams, listening to coaches, etc. All those things come into factor.

I don't even blame coaches for going with and staying with Jones so long. Dude has looked good in the offseason and dedicated a lot of time to stopping his fumbling. He even looked good in our last win before the Detroit game. He hasn't looked great, but he has been good this year (nothing like Bruton at safety). It just so happened that his injury came after his worse performance of the year and Kelley comes in and takes advantage of it. I do wonder if Gruden likes Kelley's style of play though as it reminds me of Morris more than the backs he had in Cincy. That's why it wouldn't surprise me if Jones is given a chance to win his job back, or at least contribute more. What Jay said Monday was that he likes his 3rd RB to play teams, but if he can get a 5th WR or 4th LB to play teams instead we can see Jones and Kelley splitting carries again.

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Personally I think if Kelly keeps playing like this and even improving then I don't see Jones on the field any time soon.  Hell I we can dominate a team and Brown comes in on mop up duty and he kills it then Jones is forever buried at least this year until training camp..  Good problem to have IMO since then we may not even consider a RB in the draft and use that pick on anther player of need.

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22 hours ago, bobandweave said:

Seahawks just cut, CUT Christine Michael. Can we please please please pick him up? Fat Rob and CMike, would be a nasty combo

Damn it, just announced the Packers claimed CMike. Which means that we didn't show any interest. Now we may be facing him Sunday night

 

sad-but-true-i-failed-the-stupid-test-4i

 

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17 minutes ago, bobandweave said:

 

 

Damn it, just announced the Packers claimed CMike. Which means that we didn't show any interest. Now we may be facing him Sunday night

 

 

No, it means our interest is unknown (although I'd bet money that we were not interested).  Packers have a higher waiver order as their record is worse.  That said, he's new to the system, the lingo, and the players around him.  I'm sure he'll get some carries, but probably under 5.  If we're betting, it'd be Starks and Montgomery splitting for most of the game.

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_I can't put this really cool graph in here so try the link....._______________________
 
 

Fat Rob has been large the past month, but his future schedule is #1 toughest via https://www.sharpfootballstats.com/strength-of-schedule--off-.html  cc: @evansilva @MattHarmon_BYB

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----------------------------------

 

Warren Sharp ‏@SharpFootball  11s12 seconds ago
Fat Rob has been large the past month, but his future schedule is #1 toughest via https://www.sharpfootballstats.com/strength-of-schedule--off-.html … cc: @evansilva @MattHarmon_BYB
 


 

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52 minutes ago, Alcoholic Zebra said:

 

No, it means our interest is unknown (although I'd bet money that we were not interested).  Packers have a higher waiver order as their record is worse.  That said, he's new to the system, the lingo, and the players around him.  I'm sure he'll get some carries, but probably under 5.  If we're betting, it'd be Starks and Montgomery splitting for most of the game.

 

Oh I thought waiver order was based on last seasons records? Are you sure in season records matter

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8 minutes ago, bobandweave said:

 

Oh I thought waiver order was based on last seasons records? Are you sure in season records matter

 

NFL link explaining the Waiver System

Quote

From the first business day after the Super Bowl until the day after the third regular season week, assignments are based on a claiming order that is the same as the order in which clubs selected in that year’s Draft. From the beginning of the fourth regular season weekend through the Super Bowl, assignments are based on the inverse order of their win-loss record.

 

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Well, I know this might be silly to mention, but based on fantasy it shows that Kelley (and the rest of our backs) has the toughest remaining schedule in the league. This is regarding fantasy points given up by the teams we're facing. :/ 

So, yeah... looks like tough sledding for him and anyone else getting carries. If he can succeed against these teams that'll be huge, though. Good news is, at least with the Packers, they're not the same rush defense they were to start the season. And we just came off of an excellent effort from Kelley against a Vikings' run D that's really good, too.    

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Really curious to see how he does against the Packers. Statistically, they have a really good run D but if you look at who they've faced, it hasn't been a real difficult road for them. Jacksonville (Yeldon, Denard Robinson), Minnesota (AD got hurt, Asiata, McKinnon), Detroit (Riddick, Dwayne Washington), Giants (Rainey, Perkins, Darkwa), Cowboys (Elliot had 157), Chicago (Kadeem Carey lead the way, Howard), Atlanta (Pack did good against Freeman and Ward), Indy (Gore and Turbin), and Tennessee (Murray-127, Henry-31).

 

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1 hour ago, SoulSkin said:

Really curious to see how he does against the Packers. Statistically, they have a really good run D but if you look at who they've faced, it hasn't been a real difficult road for them. Jacksonville (Yeldon, Denard Robinson), Minnesota (AD got hurt, Asiata, McKinnon), Detroit (Riddick, Dwayne Washington), Giants (Rainey, Perkins, Darkwa), Cowboys (Elliot had 157), Chicago (Kadeem Carey lead the way, Howard), Atlanta (Pack did good against Freeman and Ward), Indy (Gore and Turbin), and Tennessee (Murray-127, Henry-31).

 

Well they couldn't stop the top 2 rushing offenses but Tenn. and Dallas are 1-2 for a reason. ATL is in the top 10 as well, but they haven't had their bye week until this week... We're in the middle of the pack though so we'll see

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34 minutes ago, Playaction2Sanders said:

Well they couldn't stop the top 2 rushing offenses but Tenn. and Dallas are 1-2 for a reason. ATL is in the top 10 as well, but they haven't had their bye week until this week... We're in the middle of the pack though so we'll see

That's kinda what I was getting at. I'm curious to see if Kelley can keep the momentum going with another good game. Out of those other teams and RBs GB has played, I think he's looked better than most of them, in the limited time he's played. Just based on catching bits and pieces of Packers games. I always end up watching them during commercial breaks or if the Skins game isn't on opposite. I'd love to see him keep it rolling. 

One kind of glaring stat that I didn't mention earlier is that they have only allowed one rushing TD all year, to Devonta Freeman. Here's hoping Fat Rob can add one or two to that  

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About that fantasy thing I was talking about: 

Quote

Rob Kelley, RB, Washington Redskins

 

The Redskins rookie back has now started the last two games with Matt Jones on the shelf. Rob Kelley has played well during his time as the team's feature back, averaging 4.3 yards per carry with 184 rush yards and a touchdown in Washington's last two contests with a 12.1 fantasy points per game average.

 

So why am I suggesting to trade away a player at a scarce position, whom you likely added on waivers just a few weeks back and could potentially provide your team with RB2 production from here on out?

Rob Kelley has literally the worst remaining schedule of any team in terms of defenses to face for running backs.

After Washington's Week 11 game against Green Bay (a defense that had been tough against running backs to start the year but has struggled since), Kelley and the Redskins play four of their next five games on the road, all of which are against top-eight run-stopping teams in the league. The schedule plays out as so: Week 12 at Dallas, Week 13 at Arizona, Week 14 at Philadelphia, Week 15 against Carolina and Week 16 at Chicago.

The chart below identifies just how tough these upcoming teams have been against opposing running backs this season, along with tidbits about why each specific matchup will be so tough for Kelley to produce.

Week 12: Dallas is allowing just 82.6 rushing yards per game, and is one of only four teams in the NFL to not allow a 100-yard rusher this season.

Week 13: Arizona is allowing a league-best 3.26 yards per carry to opposing running backs. The league average is 4.14.

 

Rob Kelley Week 12-16: Opposing defenses/NFL average vs RBs
Rob Kelley Week 12-16: Opposing defenses/NFL average vs RBs (NFL.com)

 

Week 14: Philadelphia has allowed just three rushing touchdowns to backs the entire season.

Week 15: Carolina has allowed just three rushing touchdowns to backs the entire season and is statistically the 2nd-ranked run defense in the league.

Week 16: Chicago is the most "favorable" of these matchups but is allowing just 3.7 yards per carry to opposing backs this year on 204 attempts against, which is the most of the five teams listed.

The going is about to get really tough for Kelley, so move him now while he's riding a wave of high volume and yardage totals.

http://www.nfl.com/fantasyfootball/story/0ap3000000741009/article/3-players-to-sell-high-on-before-the-fantasy-playoffs

:( 

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I wouldn't get caught up too much in those run defense stats, for most of these teams our O-line will be one of,  if not the best they have faced. Furthermore our offense is incredibly balanced, so there won't be too many 8 man boxes. Not saying that we will steam roll people but I think we will still be productive. 

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If GBs D is anything like they were in last years playoffs, it will be a good measuring stick for our run game. They gave our OL  fits for all but the opening drive. Kelly now has his feet wet, as do Long and the latest, Ty. This is a threshold moment, prime time and all. Step through!

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3 hours ago, RandyHolt said:

If GBs D is anything like they were in last years playoffs, it will be a good measuring stick for our run game. They gave our OL  fits for all but the opening drive. Kelly now has his feet wet, as do Long and the latest, Ty. This is a threshold moment, prime time and all. Step through!

Remember last year Trent was dinged, Long was playing LG and Lict was our center.  In other words we were nothing compared to what we are now.  Also their D was not as bad against the pass. 

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He has 121 second half rushing yards in the last two weeks.

“Yeah I think I get better as the game goes on,” Kelley said on Sunday. “You’ve got to feel stuff out, know how it’s coming, if they’re hitting gaps or they’re not, they hitting hard or they not? You gotta figure stuff out...I feel like the Vikings have a real good defense and they tried to hit me real hard and I tried to respond back to ‘em.”

http://www.redskins.com/news/article-1/Robert-Kelley-Impressing-With-Forward-Running-Adjustments/e8d6bd91-d1ca-4b56-9e8f-7065945e1887

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Fantasy wise, he might struggle, but as far as the offense as a whole, he's going to fill his role perfectly.

We honestly don't need him to rush for 100 yards per game, it'll be nice, but we all know the bread and butter of our offense is Kirk's arm. Just the threat of having a good running back that could get good chunks of yards is enough to keep our offense on schedule. It should be an interesting thing to watch.

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Great quote Stef. I kind of touched on it earlier in the thread, but I think RB change has the OLine fired up as well. Everyone seemed to help him up pretty quickly and the OLine quotes were good.

Pretty excited for our offense, if he can keep bringing a smash mouth feel to it. It's really been lacking.

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