MattFancy Posted September 18, 2015 Author Share Posted September 18, 2015 If you are wondering how the winners of the large daily fantasy contests end up picking what would appear to be the ultimate lineup, it really boils down to professionals that place hundreds/thousands of entries deemed optimal by analytics. Both Draft Kings and Fan Duel are filled with Sharks doing this. 100% correct. There was an article from Bloomberg this week that went over how it's all done: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-10/you-aren-t-good-enough-to-win-money-playing-daily-fantasy-football Only the top 1.3 percent of players finished in the green during the three months measured by the Sport Business Journal. An unrelated survey of more than 1,400 fantasy sports players conducted by Krejcik of Eilers Research this summer found that 70 percent of participants have lost money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamesMadisonSkins Posted September 18, 2015 Share Posted September 18, 2015 I picked what I felt were two very solid, and similar lineups last week with DFS on FanDuel. I scored 151 in the Junkies league (250 entrants) and came in 5th place despite AP giving me nothing ... and got myself a nice $50 payout on the $5 entry. That was my first ever "big win" ... last year I got a couple $10 and $15 payouts but nothing more. I also had an entry in the $1million Sunday tournament with 250k members. I think I put up like 107 points ... not terrible but not close to the money pool. It really is a crapshoot and I have noticed that those who end up winning big money get big points from their Kicker, Defense or Tight End ... and those are as much a crapshoot as ANY. Last week, in the Junkies league ... I had Rams (15 points), McManus (18 points) and Seferian-Jenkins (25 points) so I hit the trifecta and, unsurprisingly, won big money. Here is my 5th place Junkies squad: QB: Bradford (15.44) RB: Lacy (16.9), Peterson (6.7) WR: Adams (7.9), Julio Jones (30.6), J. Matthews (15.2) TE: Seferian-Jenkins (25.5) K: McManus (18) DEF: Rams (15) I went heavy on RBs and ... you would think ... in order to win money, they would have had to perform ... but despite the fact that AP didn't get any big points, I still managed to pull it out thanks to Julio and the D/K/TE combo ... TOTAL crapshoot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoulSkin Posted September 18, 2015 Share Posted September 18, 2015 Biggest win I ever had in DFS was 4th in a big cheapy GPP and got around $250. It was a lot of luck then too, and before all of the tools and info that are now available to people. That was several years ago. Nowadays, I can make the cash almost enough to pay for the entry fees, but don't even sniff the top. I try to avoid the multi entry tourneys for the most part now, except for a few $1 or $2 entry fees. I really prefer just double ups and 50/50s, which really helps to break even at least, and hopefully cover the cost of the tourney entries.. The big sites love those multi entry tourneys because they get so much from the entry fees and from the sharks that pay into them. That's why there aren't as many single entry tourneys. Edited. I went backed and looked, not nearly what I thought I won. Had a few wins around that time and added them all up together in my head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chump Bailey Posted September 18, 2015 Share Posted September 18, 2015 Man am I getting a bad vibe from CJ Anderson. I have Hillman, but the Broncos run game is pathetic. You do not let OL players like Orlando Franklin walk... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
abdcskins Posted September 18, 2015 Share Posted September 18, 2015 ^ Me too. Plus he is injured. He is going to be a bust. I just offered CJ Anderson for Ameer Abdullah. See what he says. Also offered Anderson and Markus Wheaton for Jeremy Maclin and Jonathan Stewart. I don't expect that owner to accept. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BatteredFanSyndrome Posted September 18, 2015 Share Posted September 18, 2015 Ameer's arrow is up while Andersons is down. I can't see anyone taking that right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobandweave Posted September 18, 2015 Share Posted September 18, 2015 Here is my lineup for this week on Fanduel. Let me know if you have any suggestions. QB - Drew Brees RB - Justin Forsett Carlos Hyde WR - Julio Jones Terrance Williams Brandon Coleman TE - Jordan Cameron K - Justin Tucker D - Miami Dolphins I don't play on FD but I will say this. I am completely off Hyde this week. Game script, vegas lines, too many people using him, and other factors say stay away. I only play on DraftKings and going with the other teams RB this week as a nice pivot from Hyde I think if they are priced the same should out produce him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobandweave Posted September 18, 2015 Share Posted September 18, 2015 Ameer's arrow is up while Andersons is down. I can't see anyone taking that right now. Are people really going crazy for Abdullah this quickly? I find that surprising. Now I'm not saying that the guys not talented, but he was involved in less then 45% of the Lions offensive snaps last week, he only carried the ball 7 times and was thrown the ball 4 times. I want to see this offense shake out more before I can believe he's truely a 1st round RB pick talent. The way they used him this past week was like that of Reggie Bush in that offense. I think if someone offered that to me I would accept that trade right now. That's also with me saying that this time next week I may not feel that way at all and agree with you just seems premature to me to do that with only those numbers to go off of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chew Posted September 18, 2015 Share Posted September 18, 2015 Is this straight up disrespectful, or would he actually think about it for a few seconds before saying no? I am about to hit "send" on a proposed trade in which I would receive Antonio Brown in exchange for Tyler Eifert, Alshon Jeffery, and (if it'll get the deal done) Bills DST Before you laugh, hear me out: Tight end and DST are by far his weakest positions (TE Charles Clay, DST Packers). Eifert & Buffalo are an instant boost to his weak spots, and Jeffery is usually ranked 9th-12th every week. Dez being out is killing me and i need a top 5 WR (other starting receiver is Tate). Giving up Eifert and Bills doesn't hurt me too bad, I still have Greg Olsen and Broncos DST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
abdcskins Posted September 18, 2015 Share Posted September 18, 2015 Think I'm gonna start Vernon Davis over Jordan Reed this week. Why does Jordan Reed constantly get lower body injuries? Seemed like Kaepernick was making a concerted effort to get Davis the ball on Monday. Almost just did a yahoo daily fantasy game. I set my lineup and everything, then they asked me for 10 bucks. Nah, I'll do it eventually though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bonez3 Posted September 19, 2015 Share Posted September 19, 2015 Latavious Murray or Justin Forsett? I'm just not sold on Forsett and really didn't want him. Now he's a little nicked up. Murray had decent numbers last week in bad game for Oak. Standard scoring, no PPR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PokerPacker Posted September 19, 2015 Share Posted September 19, 2015 I'm assuming James Jones. I'd rank them: Boldin, Beasley, Jones, D. Williams, Blount I still don't trust James Jones. If he does it again, I might change my tune. I have a sneaky suspicion this might be Randall Cobb or Davante Adams week for the pack. I'm not so sure I trust any Packers WRs as plug and play w/o Jordy though. I see James Jones--for now at least--as high potential boom-or-bust week-to-week. He only had 4 targets in week one, but he made the most of them catching them all including two TDs (and kinda got screwed out of a third TD on a ticky-tack at best holding call away from the play). He has shown a knack for the end-zone in the past with Rodgers, as there was one season that he led the NFL in TD receptions. So until the season is further along and we get a better picture of how he'll fit in for targets on average, I'd look at him as a guy you play when you want to roll the dice for a chance at big-points that comes with the week-to-week risk associated with being a #3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoulSkin Posted September 19, 2015 Share Posted September 19, 2015 I see James Jones--for now at least--as high potential boom-or-bust week-to-week. He only had 4 targets in week one, but he made the most of them catching them all including two TDs (and kinda got screwed out of a third TD on a ticky-tack at best holding call away from the play). He has shown a knack for the end-zone in the past with Rodgers, as there was one season that he led the NFL in TD receptions. So until the season is further along and we get a better picture of how he'll fit in for targets on average, I'd look at him as a guy you play when you want to roll the dice for a chance at big-points that comes with the week-to-week risk associated with being a #3. I trust your opinion on Packers WRs more than my own. Like you say, he's always been boom or bust. It's a new situation for him though without Nelson in the mix. In seasonal leagues I prefer consistency, and maybe he will actually be a little more reliable this year. I wish I had rolled the dice with him in some DFS stuff last week. It would be interesting to know if he had more targets in the past when Jordy was out with injuries. He only had four last week, with a chance at three TDs, but that was basically coming off of his couch and into a game. I didn't see the game, but that did surprise me. I expected at least one or two TDs for the other receivers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobandweave Posted September 19, 2015 Share Posted September 19, 2015 Latavious Murray or Justin Forsett? I'm just not sold on Forsett and really didn't want him. Now he's a little nicked up. Murray had decent numbers last week in bad game for Oak. Standard scoring, no PPR I really like Forsett this week but check injury update on him before rolling him out, Murray well the Raiders likely will lean on him early but fall behind limiting his chances as the game goes on but if the news on Forsett isn't good he's decent but wouldn't expect too much from him based off week ones shutdown of the Denver running game I trust your opinion on Packers WRs more than my own. Like you say, he's always been boom or bust. It's a new situation for him though without Nelson in the mix. In seasonal leagues I prefer consistency, and maybe he will actually be a little more reliable this year. I wish I had rolled the dice with him in some DFS stuff last week. It would be interesting to know if he had more targets in the past when Jordy was out with injuries. He only had four last week, with a chance at three TDs, but that was basically coming off of his couch and into a game. I didn't see the game, but that did surprise me. I expected at least one or two TDs for the other receivers. DraftKings last week didn't have him on the slate and packers WR3s are always boom or bust, unless his snap counts start going up he's a flyer at best to me. Now if he starts out snapping Adams or Cobb all bets are off but last week he wasn't used nearly as much as you need to ever feel comfortable throwing him in a lineup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sportjunkie07 Posted September 19, 2015 Share Posted September 19, 2015 Are people really going crazy for Abdullah this quickly? I find that surprising. Now I'm not saying that the guys not talented, but he was involved in less then 45% of the Lions offensive snaps last week, he only carried the ball 7 times and was thrown the ball 4 times. I want to see this offense shake out more before I can believe he's truely a 1st round RB pick talent. The way they used him this past week was like that of Reggie Bush in that offense. I think if someone offered that to me I would accept that trade right now. That's also with me saying that this time next week I may not feel that way at all and agree with you just seems premature to me to do that with only those numbers to go off of. people are always down on joique bell, but he has gotten the bulk of carries and goal line work for the last 2 years. he is trusted there. abdullah will get work and be productive but i think abdullah owner's are going to be waiting for a serious injury to bell before he gets no.1 type work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sportjunkie07 Posted September 19, 2015 Share Posted September 19, 2015 Is this straight up disrespectful, or would he actually think about it for a few seconds before saying no? I am about to hit "send" on a proposed trade in which I would receive Antonio Brown in exchange for Tyler Eifert, Alshon Jeffery, and (if it'll get the deal done) Bills DST Before you laugh, hear me out: Tight end and DST are by far his weakest positions (TE Charles Clay, DST Packers). Eifert & Buffalo are an instant boost to his weak spots, and Jeffery is usually ranked 9th-12th every week. Dez being out is killing me and i need a top 5 WR (other starting receiver is Tate). Giving up Eifert and Bills doesn't hurt me too bad, I still have Greg Olsen and Broncos DST. all depends on how you value the players but its certainly a fair trade and id take it if i were the other guy. you are giving up a lot imo. Latavious Murray or Justin Forsett? I'm just not sold on Forsett and really didn't want him. Now he's a little nicked up. Murray had decent numbers last week in bad game for Oak. Standard scoring, no PPR i think id role with forsett there. would you consider a latavius murray for forsett trade? i am targeting alshon jeffrey. does his injury status and uncertainty allow me to trade for him with either emmanuel sanders or jeremy maclin? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PokerPacker Posted September 19, 2015 Share Posted September 19, 2015 DraftKings last week didn't have him on the slate and packers WR3s are always boom or bust, unless his snap counts start going up he's a flyer at best to me. Now if he starts out snapping Adams or Cobb all bets are off but last week he wasn't used nearly as much as you need to ever feel comfortable throwing him in a lineupJones actually had a really high snap count as the Packers love 3 WR sets. According to Football Outsiders, he was in on 92% of offensive snaps with three fewer snaps than Adams and one more snap than Cobb. He's going to be on the field a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chew Posted September 20, 2015 Share Posted September 20, 2015 was setting up my ES yahoo league, and got a pop up to start a new league/draft. Sure, why not? Well, guess I was playing with a bunch of noobs. 10 team league, my starting lineup is: Matt Ryan Calvin Johnson Alshon Jeffery Brandon Cooks Leveon Bell Carlos Hyde Tyler Eifert McManus Denver Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chew Posted September 20, 2015 Share Posted September 20, 2015 Alshon Jeffery owners...the beat writer for Chicago was just on ESPN saying it "doesn't look good" for Alshon tomorrow. his calf injury still lingering, but he also tweaked a hammy in practice Thursday. **** hopefully twitter will know for sure before kickoff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skinfan2k Posted September 20, 2015 Share Posted September 20, 2015 I think I'm going jones over Beasley. If the packers want to win the have to go away from Sherman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bonez3 Posted September 20, 2015 Share Posted September 20, 2015 So finally succumb to the non-stop advertising and signed up for draft kings. Any strategies for weekly plays? My budget about 50 a week with hopes I should push on some of contest. Any input appreciated. Right now I did the big daddy 2Mil contest, than a head to head, a 50/50, Sunday/Monday night contest and afternoon contest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeTheBeal! Posted September 20, 2015 Share Posted September 20, 2015 Ladarius Green or Zack Ertz? Help! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chew Posted September 20, 2015 Share Posted September 20, 2015 Ladarius is a top 5 TE until Gates returns, imo Ty Hilton is killing me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeTheBeal! Posted September 20, 2015 Share Posted September 20, 2015 Ladarius is a top 5 TE until Gates returns, imoTy Hilton is killing me. Yeah, I just went ahead and shut TY down. Just gotta get it done with Cole Beasley this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kosher Ham Posted September 20, 2015 Share Posted September 20, 2015 Same problem with TY. I am pretty set with this lineup, but if he plays...is he simply going to be a decoy ? Will he be able to go 90% ? I have him on the bench right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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