Thinking Skins Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 The one problem I have with TK's assessment is that it doesn't account for what we do to resolve the Shanahan situation. If we keep him, does that mean we extend him, and lose another 7 Million+, plus the cost of assistants? If not, what coach, particularly coach with his pedigree, goes into the last year of their original contract without an extension? Danny/Allen need to know what they're going to do with Shanny for at least the next 3 years come January. If he stays, then he probably gets a 3 year contract. If not, then he's gone now. The way I see it, roughly 12 million is gone no matter what because its already promised to them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Box76 Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 There's no way Shanahan gets extended this year. I think he goes into next year having to earn an extension but I hope I'm wrong. I hope he gets shown the door 2 minutes after our last game. Just knowing we could be tied with Jacksonville in wins after 11 games confirms my belief this staff is clueless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bacon Posted December 1, 2013 Share Posted December 1, 2013 Either way, Dan Snyder's not throwing that much money away. Yet he's willing to throw away our cap space this year on a regime that won't be here in 2015? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Royale Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 I'd like to point out that Shanahan saved Danny 36 or whatever million already in player salaries. The money is there. If TK is going to theorycraft sunk costs into the mix, which is entirely the opposite of what a savvy businessman would do when considering how to improve his business, then he also must take into account Shanahan paying back Danny his whole contract in cap fiasco. The point is moot in the end, because I also do believe we are keeping him around for another year. However, since we are in the gaming mood to theorycraft eye popping numbers, I'll take a shot. Shanahan's contract Minus the "7 Million Buyout": 28 Million. Subtract 36 Million in player salaries that Shanahan saved danny over two years due to the cap penalties. Most definitely would have been taken advantage of if available. -8 Million. Buyout for Shanahan's contract. 7 Million. -1 Million. As we can see here. If we're willing to look back and take sunk costs and indirect savings, then Danny ended up saving a million in overall spending between coach and players by signing Shanahan. Now, we fire his staff. Estimated at 5 million. 15 Million for buying out and signing a New HC and staff. 20 Million in total. Now, heres where I can play numbers too mom! Given that we ARE going to use Sunk costs, like TK did, then we must look at the implied savings too. It's only fair if we are to use one business folly, we must use another when making a decision. Technically Shanahan's contract came out to net 1 million in player + coaches salary IN PROFIT over what Danny would have had to spend if it weren't for the cap penalty. Subtract that from the Estimated 20 million and we have 19 Million to spend on a new HC and staff. Take that 19 million and average it over 5 years, (Shanahan's first 4 + The first year of the new regime) because we are looking at the NET COST of Shanahan regime including his replacement. Danny would end up only spending 19 Million In NET TOTAL for the Shanahan Regime and cleaning it up, which would only make his hit come out to be 3.8 Million a year instead of 9.6 million a year. (the average of Shanny's contract + a predicted regime change cost) What's my point? Danny will end up spending less money on Shanny than he did on Zorn. Therefore, the costs are the least of his concerns when making this decision. I'm very confident that whoever is in Danny's brain trust and is advising him on the financial ramifications of this decision will NOT factor in Shanahan's current contract, because that decision is a Sunk cost you open up a whole new can of worms when taking into consideration sunk costs in future investments. TLDR; Sunk costs are a terrible way to determine future investments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZRagone Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Could you imagine the daily sideshow if he is indeed retained for the final year but without an extension? It would be carnage. Hail. After listening to the media in this town the past few years, I think that's irrelevant. If we're winning then it won't come up or he'll actually get extended If we 're losing the media in thist own will find SOMETHING to turn into a sideshow if carnage. Even with an extension we'd still see the same sideshow with the coach we're seeing this year when this team isn't ripping off multiple wins in a row there is. always something the media can turn into a sideshow and they salivate over the chance to do it. WHAT they use is irrelevant to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
texasthunder Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Do any of y'all really believe it has anything to do with money, as far as Snyder is concerned ?? Remember he bought the Redskins because he was a fan since a little kid. Its not money to him, its his hobby or play toy, what ever you want to call it. If he is convinced that next season will turn around with Shanahan at the helm, he will be here. But if believes that the Skins are not going in the right direction he is going to want change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redskins Diehard Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Could you imagine the daily sideshow if he is indeed retained for the final year but without an extension? It would be carnage. Hail. Yeah, because nobody is talking about not bringing him back next year because he is under contract. Drama queens be drama queens with our without an extension Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gibbs Hog Heaven Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Yeah, because nobody is talking about not bringing him back next year because he is under contract. Drama queens be drama queens with our without an extension Keep up the unfounded faith in a HC fast headed for the worst 4 year start in your teams history. Hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redskins and Lions Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 I think that might be true. I'd rather Shanny be out by now though. Seeing all these teams turn around in a year or two while we're gonna be stuck in year 5 of this rebuild is infuriating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chipwhich Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Keep up the unfounded faith in a HC fast headed for the worst 4 year start in your teams history. Hail. He also took the helm of one of the most mismanaged franchises in NFL history. Rinse/Repeat. I don't get why people think we can just keep flipping coaches and expect a different result. HOF Gibbs II spent like a walmart black friday just to eek out a couple of playoff appearances, but overall he wasn't that good. We had the highest paying staff at every position, and the highest priced free agents and still.... Either keep Shanny, or hire a GM. Bringing in an Art Briles or the like is laughable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mursilis Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Another year of Shanahan - such a depressing thought . . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justice98 Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 The one problem I have with TK's assessment is that it doesn't account for what we do to resolve the Shanahan situation. If we keep him, does that mean we extend him, and lose another 7 Million+, plus the cost of assistants? If not, what coach, particularly coach with his pedigree, goes into the last year of their original contract without an extension? Danny/Allen need to know what they're going to do with Shanny for at least the next 3 years come January. If he stays, then he probably gets a 3 year contract. If not, then he's gone now. The way I see it, roughly 12 million is gone no matter what because its already promised to them. That's a pretty sweet negotiation if he said he needs 5, knowing he'll get at least 6 if he can manage to not get fired. He'll just pocket an extra $7 mil just on precedent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinking Skins Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 I think that might be true. I'd rather Shanny be out by now though. Seeing all these teams turn around in a year or two while we're gonna be stuck in year 5 of this rebuild is infuriating The rinse repeat cycle hits again. Eventually we've got to get it right, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RiggosMohawk Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Regardless of sunk costs/buyouts/etc... Whomever is going to be in charge of player personnel for the next 2 YEARS MINIMUM had better be in place come February 17 (beginning of franchise designation, 2 days before the combine) or else this circus will keep coming back to town for the immediate future Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkinsHokieFan Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Dan has to realize he needs a true GM at this point right? Not an alumni director/cap guy like Bruce Allen, but a true, runs the organization GM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justice98 Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Do any of y'all really believe it has anything to do with money, as far as Snyder is concerned ?? Remember he bought the Redskins because he was a fan since a little kid. Its not money to him, its his hobby or play toy, what ever you want to call it. If he is convinced that next season will turn around with Shanahan at the helm, he will be here. But if believes that the Skins are not going in the right direction he is going to want change. I don't think money has anything to do with it where Snyder is concerned. He doesn't WANT to throw money away, but he's not averse to doing it if he thinks the situation warrants. His track record of throwing money away on this team is well documented. Dan has to realize he needs a true GM at this point right? Not an alumni director/cap guy like Bruce Allen, but a true, runs the organization GM. I thought he would've realized that when he fired Vinny. But here we are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boss_Hogg Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Dan has to realize he needs a true GM at this point right? Not an alumni director/cap guy like Bruce Allen, but a true, runs the organization GM. Hard to tell what Dan is thinking. I've heard that Dan is real sensitive about losing on prime time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burgold Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 And we're not just losing, but losing while looking really bad for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skinzfever2010 Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 With bottom coming out every game its clear its time to move on. In all honesty we need a GM. We can't afford for Dan to keep picking football coaches when he doesn't understand the game. Mike and friends haven't gotten it done from day 1. We traded a total of 4 picks for D.McNabb and J.Brown (thats your new o-line people) The 3-4/4-3 Haslett debacle stems directly to Mike and his decision to change our defense. Several of the most productive players on this team are holdovers from Vinny (Fletcher, Hall, Moss, Davis, Orakpo) We lack playmakers on D (especially in our secondary) yet we let Carlos Rogers & LaRon Landry walk because we didn't want to pay them. These are our homegrown first round picks that are above average and we let them walk. (I'll post links to articles that claim each party wanted to stay under the right circumstances) Sorry TK, the team isn't showing any signs of heading in the right direction. They find a way to loose every week. Mike is forcing Dan's hand. I'll be looking forward to your new AVI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burgold Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 I have no problem admitting I was done w Landry. Too many injuries, bad angles, penalties and unfulfilled potential. I had mixed feelings on Carlos. Good coverage, but zero hands. I realize gm is the flavor if the month and I'm not opposed to blowing it all up, but I think there is talent that is just being used terribly. I think 60 percent of our woes is scheme and coaching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Diesel Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Good. It would be stupid to fire him after this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skinzfever2010 Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 I have no problem admitting I was done w Landry. Too many injuries, bad angles, penalties and unfulfilled potential. I had mixed feelings on Carlos. Good coverage, but zero hands. I realize gm is the flavor if the month and I'm not opposed to blowing it all up, but I think there is talent that is just being used terribly. I think 60 percent of our woes is scheme and coaching. Burgold its one thing to admit your done with players for emotional reasons but when you watch them go off and succeed in other places and your team continues to struggle you have to ask yourself was there another problem. We'd rather let pro bowl players we draft take their services else where while we struggle to find competent replacements and scream we lack playmakers in the process. That makes no sense at all. I'm starting to wonder about the organization itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mursilis Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 Good. It would be stupid to fire him after this season. What? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ADF Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 I would not extend Shanahan. He hasn't earned it. Shanahan wanted five seasons and Dan Snyder would be giving him that if he's kept. I think that is fair. He also should let Shanahan sink his own ship. If he wants to bring Haslett back then let him. Snyder has a history of trying to "fix" things himself and his coaches not really being on board. Then the coaches look like the victim in the media. I'd let Shanny decide his own fate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skinzfever2010 Posted December 2, 2013 Share Posted December 2, 2013 I would not extend Shanahan. He hasn't earned it. Shanahan wanted five seasons and Dan Snyder would be giving him that if he's kept. I think that is fair. He also should let Shanahan sink his own ship. If he wants to bring Haslett back then let him. Snyder has a history of trying to "fix" things himself and his coaches not really being on board. Then the coaches look like the victim in the media. I'd let Shanny decide his own fate. Plant the seeds for a bright future while the ship is sinking. Bring in the GM this offseason and let him and Shannahan but heads while Mike phases himself out. There is no way we fill all these holes in one offseason. Haslett, Burns, Kyle are just scapegoats at this point. Mike was given way to much power from day 1. Going into his last season the power should be taken away piece by piece until he either fires himself (quits, continues to suck here) or the contract expires. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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