tshile Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 I just don't believe Hillary can win. I haven't looked at the numbers for the last 8 years, but based on what they were, nobody really likes her and lots of people dislike her. I like the rest of your post, and when you spot the next bubble you let me know cause i got lots of stuff to move around But I think you are underestimating the ability of the GOP to put an less-likable person up as the alternative. That said, most of my liberal friends are convinced Hilary is almost right-of-center so, maybe you're more right than I think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Predicto Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 Will Hillary run on the record of the last 8 years? No. If you do that, you get saddled with every bad thing that happened but don't get credit for anything good that happened. That was a lot of what sank Al Gore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeTheBeal! Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 Strabismic? Huh, ya learn something new everyday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twa Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 Having a former President attend your wedding is a negative for a candidate? And donating to a non-profit whose cause is: "to unlock human potential through the power of creative collaboration, through building partnerships between businesses, NGOs, governments, and individuals everywhere to work faster, better, and leaner; to find solutions that last; and to transform lives and communities from what they are today to what they can be, tomorrow." OMG, Trump is a ****ing commie! Non-profit in name only, whose cause seems far from what is stated. Kinda like Trump Peter MP , ya don't think we are in a bubble economy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tshile Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 Peter MP , ya don't think we are in a bubble economy? From what standpoint? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lombardi's_kid_brother Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 Will Hillary run on the record of the last 8 years? She's going to run on the vaguest of promises of 90s economics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Corcaigh Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 From what standpoint? Because Obama couldn't possibly get credit for a healthy recovery. First it was failing to get unemployment down. Then is was the wrong type of employment. Now it's bubble. Unlike TWA and McD5, I lack the power to predict the future so I don't know what sort of economy we're in. I am just happy with the rapid increase in my net worth during Obama's tenure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
s0crates Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 That said, most of my liberal friends are convinced Hilary is almost right-of-center so, maybe you're more right than I think? Tell them to vote for Bernie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twa Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 Because Obama couldn't possibly get credit for a healthy recovery. First it was failing to get unemployment down. Then is was the wrong type of employment. Now it's bubble. Unlike TWA and McD5, I lack the power to predict the future so I don't know what sort of economy we're in. I am just happy with the rapid increase in my net worth during Obama's tenure. I wish ya well. I'm pretty nervous and Obama don't really matter now does he? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Evil Genius Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 I guess it depends on what the definition of a bubble economy is and how TWA is using it. So TWA, how is the US in a bubble economy right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tshile Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 Because Obama couldn't possibly get credit for a healthy recovery. First it was failing to get unemployment down. Then is was the wrong type of employment. Now it's bubble. Unlike TWA and McD5, I lack the power to predict the future so I don't know what sort of economy we're in. I am just happy with the rapid increase in my net worth during Obama's tenure. I was assuming that he meant the bubble was all the money that's been pumped in. Because that's the typical GOP arm chair economist opinion. But TWA doesn't actually state opinions or give answers usually, he just dances around with open-ended nonsense (which is a shame cause i'm willing to bet he's actually decently smart when he wants to be...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twa Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 The money pump is a part, but ya'll are smart guys ......All is Well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PeterMP Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 Peter MP , ya don't think we are in a bubble economy? Well, we've had the same "bubble" we've had for a while now. Government deficit spending, but that's been a pretty constant in my life time. In that sense, the economy is over inflated, but that's a different level of complexity and is just an argument that even "okay" economies in the US aren't really "good". Which certainly means that we shouldn't be considering the current economy "bad" or even "not good". The stock market is probably a litter higher than it should be, but not as much as some people seem to think. I think the nature of changes in the tax code since the late 1970s have shifted how it makes sense to invest money and that then affects the value of stocks. The long term S&P 500 P/E is just over 15, but the P/E since like 1985 is closer to 19. Today we are currently at 20.57. For a comparison at the height of the tech bubble, we were at almost 45. What bubble do you see? Unlike TWA and McD5, I lack the power to predict the future so I don't know what sort of economy we're in. I am just happy with the rapid increase in my net worth during Obama's tenure. I want to make the point that predicting the (long term) future and market timing or making money off it are different things. I can say that a market is irrational. That doesn't mean that profiting off of it is easy or even possible. As Keynes said, "Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent". The stock market is in a bubble is different than it makes sense to pull your money out of the stock market. The bubble might last 5 more years and then you've lost all the advantages of being invested in stocks over that 5 year bubble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tshile Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 The money pump is a part, but ya'll are smart guys ......All is Well Like I said, you don't actually offer an opinion or explain anything. Just dance around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
88Comrade2000 Posted June 17, 2015 Author Share Posted June 17, 2015 2. I just don't believe Hillary can win. I haven't looked at the numbers for the last 8 years, but based on what they were, nobody really likes her and lots of people dislike her. Some of that dislike might have dissipated some, but underneath its still really there, and I seriously doubt many people have started to actually really like her. If she wins the Democratic nomination, I actually think the Republicans have a good chance to win the Presidential election. Hillary most likely starts at 247 EVs, using Larry Sabato's last map: Hillary doesn't have to be liked. All she needs to do is win 23 EVs. I think she can win NV,CO and VA; which would give her 275evs. The repubs needs to win 64; which is much harder. The Republican will absolutely have to win Florida, Ohio and Virginia plus one more of the tossup states. I don't see the Republican candidate winning all 3: Florida, Ohio and Virginia. Alternatively, the Republican candidate would have to flip some Democratic states? Maybe Scott Walker wins Wisconsin? If he does that, it means more than likely he has won some other midwestern States. Scott isn't as popular in Wisconsin right now. I think the gender vote alone, could be the difference. There are more liberal and moderate women voters inclined to vote for Hillary; than they are conservative women voters inclined to vote against Hillary or for the Republican candidate. That alone, could give Hillary the edge in the tossup states. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redskins3D Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 Strabismic? Huh, ya learn something new everyday. pretty textbook "trying too hard" while thinking he's unique. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lombardi's_kid_brother Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 Like I said, you don't actually offer an opinion or explain anything. Just dance around Are you new here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Evil Genius Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 Kind of sad to see such a pro-union state (WV) still going red (I thought it was more a reaction to the darker skinned candidate in 2008 and 2012 than politics). But that's what happens when like 90% of your state is over 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Larry Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 From what standpoint? From the standpoint of "Some day, something is going to happen that I can claim is bad. And when it does, I will dance around in circles with a manic grin on my face, yelling 'Bubble! Bubble! Doesn't count! Ignore it! Never happened! Vote Republican!'? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redskins3D Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 I think the gender vote alone, could be the difference. There are more liberal and moderate women voters inclined to vote for Hillary; than they are conservative women voters inclined to vote against Hillary or for the Republican candidate. That alone, could give Hillary the edge in the tossup states. dude...change the record. Aren't you at least upset that's all you ever say in support of her? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan T. Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 pretty textbook "trying too hard" while thinking he's unique. Aye, don't be cross. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Evil Genius Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 Rubio might get the GOP Florida and Virginia, but i have a hard time thinking he would get them Ohio too. Maybe a Rubio Walker ticket? That might be the only chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Larry Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 Kind of sad to see such a pro-union state (WV) still going red . I didn't think there were such things as "pro Union states". (Well, the Chicago area was, when I lived there. But that was like early 70s. Didn't think it was, any more). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tshile Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 Are you new here? kind of yes, kind of no? i just started posting here again? i thought i'd try Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PeterMP Posted June 17, 2015 Share Posted June 17, 2015 Just to add more economy talk: As the link states, why this has happened isn't clear: http://aneconomicsense.com/2012/07/20/the-shift-from-equitable-to-inequitable-growth-after-1980-helping-the-rich-has-not-helped-the-not-so-rich/ But that doesn't mean it isn't a valid relationship. The 2014 annual number indicates we are slightly below the long term trend. Maybe there is some small positive deviation that can happen, but it isn't much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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