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***2021-2022 NBA Season Thread***


RonArtest15

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Since you won't pick a team of your own, you're getting the Rockets.

So... how do you like Daryl Morey after this beauty of an offseason?

 

Historically, my loyalty is to the Celtics. But I didn't really follow them after Bird retired because....come on. At least I remained agnostic after jumping off the bandwagon of the team of my youth. I think that's praiseworthy.

 

Morey out-smarted himself this time. But he's done this before. And he's managed to pull a rabbit out of his hat in the past so we'll see.

 

In all honesty, the one move that really bugs me is the Asik trade. I can't believe they couldn't have gotten anything better for him. Losing Lin doesn't bother me. I think he's fairly easy to replace.

 

The Parsons deal. In retrospect, that was dumb. But you can also argue that the Mavs ridiculously overpayed for a limited player who I'm not sure actually fits well with Dirk. Parsons value to the Rockets was a) how cheap he was and B) how well he fit with what they did on offense.

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I think a lot of this is wish fulfillment. I mean, yes, Love and Irving have never played on "good" teams and there are questions surrounding them. But the same could have been said for Bosh. And there is no real issue of "Well, Lebron and Wade pretty much do the exact same things so how the hell is that going to work?" on this team.

 

As for the defense...again....no one saw Miami becoming a defensive juggernaut when they made the initial deals. And no one had any reason to believe that Spoelstra was going to reinvent NBA defense on the fly. like he did. I bet if we go back to those discussions, most of the posters here were trying to figure out when Riley was going to insert himself as coach.

 

I see this team just blitzing the East on offense. It would probably be an underdog in the Finals against any team from the West. But - to me - the goal is to get to the Finals and roll the dice.

I think people expected Miami to play some defense because each of the big three could play defense and they had starters like Battier and Chalmers as pure 3 & D guys. Wade was a high quality defender and LeBron peaked as a defender, really was one of the best defensive players in the league for a two to three year span. Bosh was a bit of a surprise. He's not a great defender, and those Toronto teams didn't play defense. But he does a handful of things very well even to this day, like defend PnRs.

They were never a defensive juggernaut though. There is a distinct gap between them and teams like Memphis/Chicago/Indy. At their peak, they were a good defense, sort of like where OKC has settled into today, which is good enough to keep an elite offense in the hunt for a championship.

The thing is, Miami did have a bit of a foundation for playing defense. Not an elite one, but a very competent one. This is not something that Cleveland has. The team they've got right now simply can not play good defense. They do not have the people yet.

I also think the guy's point about Love and Irving missing games is valid. Those guys haven't even been to the playoffs yet. They're going to get their cherries popped on a team that's going to have massive expectations. They are not going to know how to grind their way into June because nobody does their first trip. I believe you're going to see a lot of fading late from Cleveland, and a fairly weak team will come out of the East and get handled by the winner of San Antonio vs Oklahoma City in the Finals.

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I think Cleveland will be a great regular season team, but come the playoffs when they have go up against real defensive teams like the Bulls they can run into some trouble. Another thing is the durability of Love and Irving which we all know are injury prone players. You don't think they can turn into Bosh and Wade pt2 after three consecutive seasons of playing 100+ games? Yeah it sucks we have to wait that long, but Lebron can be "stuck" with declining superstars again after he signs his max contract. At its peak this Cavs team will not be better than Eric Spoelstra defensive minded championship teams.

 

I disagree.  Miami exhausted just about all their resources when they brought the Big 3 together.  The Cavs still have their draft picks, unguaranteed contracts they acquired from Utah and the Haywood contract will be a huge piece for them in 2015.  They have some bargaining power and breathing room going forward to keep their roster fluid.  Miami could only get the vet ring chasers who would take less $$$ to come play so they were left with an old roster.  The Cavs will be able to get those guys as well, plus can add other young stars down the road. 

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Yeah that's where I stand.

They'll probably win the east without too much struggle but will be in for a fight in the Finals

And as a far as the Bulls go, man I'm certain they'll have at least two 20+ point ass kickings dished out by Cleveland. Bulls defensive weakness is a team that has 3-4 guys on the floor that can knock down shots from distance

And against the Raps or Wiz, it would just be a shootout that CLE would win 120-115 or something

Why would it necessarily be a shootout?

 

Unlike Cleveland, the Wizards have proven they can defend.

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Cleveland will be great offensively, terrible defensively.  And I don't think they are beating OKC or San Antonio if it comes to that.  But they will go to the Finals unless Rose is back to near MVP form which is extremely unlikely.  Rose has to prove he can play 40 games without breaking down first.  Who cares what he does in training camp for Team USA.

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I heard that Bennett could be traded to the Sixers for Thaddeus Young. 

 

I'm just not feeling Cleveland as a breeze through the playoffs as everybody else is. First of all they have a new coach with a new team. Secondly, where is the bench? They aren't that deep. And lastly, I think other than Lebron, they have match-up nightmares with pretty much every playoff team in the East. 

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Bulls are a high ceiling, mediocre floor team IMO. So many IFF propositions with them.

- What does Rose play like? Legit All Star, or injury riddled mediocrity.

- Is Doug McDermott a dark horse ROTY or is he going to get buried on the bench?

- Does Mirotic's success in Europe translate or does his career start off more like Tiago Splitter's?

- Do they get complete seasons from Noah and Gibson?

- Can Gasol and Noah line ups be good? What does Gasol still have in the tank?

Chicago is one of the few good East teams from before that almost certainly improved this summer. But I think their improvements were more long term type moves, not as impactful in the short term. But if the best plausible outcome for most of those questions happens for Chicago, they'll be really good. I give it like a 20% chance of coming together for him. In all likelihood, Rose will not be an AS because I don't think anyone ever has come back from that kind of injury time off. McDermott will probably get buried on the bench as a rookie because Chicago has tended to bring young guys along slowly the past several years. Mirotic's Euroleague success probably won't translate right away, much like it didn't for Splitter. The law of averages is against Noah playing 80 games again. And a Gasol/Noah line up is probably going to be a bit rough defensively since neither are credible options for defending PFs any more.

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Why would it necessarily be a shootout?

Unlike Cleveland, the Wizards have proven they can defend.

It would be a blowout or a shoot out, my money would be on the former. The wizards are not built to match up with Lebron, Love, and Kyrie defensively. On paper it looks like a horrible matchup for the Wizards.

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I'm not convinced that Cleveland will be a poor defensive team.   Yes, Kyrie is a terrible defender, but Love is not a terrible defender - he has defensive ability and effort but he cannot defend the rim like a center and it is foolish to ask him to do so.   Lebron is a superior defender.  Cleveland has much more roster flexibility than Miami ever had to pair their big 3 with a defensive center.     

 

On offense, I don't think they are going to be good.  I think they are going to be spectacular.

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ut Love is not a terrible defender - he has defensive ability and effort but he cannot defend the rim like a center and it is foolish to ask him to do so

no, he is a terrible defender. A lot of his rebound number are due to him cheating off his man.

even Tyson Chandler went ham on him

And Love is under 6'8" with small arms. At best, he should make it hard for power forwards to back him down.

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no, he is a terrible defender. A lot of his rebound number are due to him cheating off his man.

even Tyson Chandler went ham on him

And Love is under 6'8" with small arms. At best, he should make it hard for power forwards to back him down.

 

Wait - according to the graphic Tyson had nine points in that game.  That passes for going ham these days?

 

Yes Love is 6 8 with short arms.  He still can be an adequate defender in the right team defense, and corralling all the defensive rebounds is a large part of playing good defense.    

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I'm not convinced that Cleveland will be a poor defensive team.   Yes, Kyrie is a terrible defender, but Love is not a terrible defender - he has defensive ability and effort but he cannot defend the rim like a center and it is foolish to ask him to do so.   Lebron is a superior defender.  Cleveland has much more roster flexibility than Miami ever had to pair their big 3 with a defensive center.     

 

On offense, I don't think they are going to be good.  I think they are going to be spectacular.

 

Nobody is afraid of going at Love on the attack and LeBron is not the defender he used to be.  The mileage is definitely starting to affect him after 12 seasons, hence why he lost all that weight this offseason.  And no before someone suggests it, this is not me saying he is a bad defender now, just I don't think at this point that he's going to want to have to defend the other team's best player all game.

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Predicto, it's hard to even play competent defense in the NBA. You have to build the foundation with player personnel. Look what it took for the Warriors to be able to do it. Who are Cleveland's foundation players? LeBron is the only guy on that team likely to play more than 1,000 minutes next season that isn't a crap defender. Love is not good. It isn't just rim protection with him, you're talking about a guy with slow feet and no length who isn't helping out, who isn't going to keep a face up PF in front of him, who can't cover PnRs.

What's this roster flexibility Cleveland has? I've seen that repeated a couple of times and I'm wondering where that idea is coming from. They're over the cap once Love's deal arrives (not sure how they're getting him for just Bennett and Wiggins, there must be at least another contract in there as ballast) and way over the cap next summer when Irving's extension kicks in and they make a max offer to Kevin Love. Irving will be a Rose Rule max too if he starts for the AS team.

They'll have late draft picks and the MLE, how is that any different than what Miami had to work with. And Thompson and Waiters will be coming off their rookie deals next offseason and the one after that. They'll probably go into the tax if they keep them. The only advantage Cleveland has over Miami in 2010 is the potential of Waiters and Thompson. It's just harder to build a good team around three max deals than it was in 2010.

In terms of current trade assets, all they really have to work with are the Varejao expiring and Dion Waiters and Tristan Thompson. But they're not going to get but 50 cents on the dollar for either Waiters or Thompson. Those players were draft reaches and are probably more valuable to Cleveland than anyone else. And Varejao is supposed to be their starting C. He's their only true big body. And LeBron probably wants him there. Are they going to trade him? For what in return? Cap space when there aren't any credible bigs left on the market this summer? He'd be more useful as the starting C and an expiring to help them stay under the tax line for the next summer when they have to spend on Love and Irving. If it's a trade for another player and not cap relief, what big man are they getting back for Varejao that's actually be an improvement? At this point in his career, Varejao's only trade value comes from his $9 million expiring. That means you take a bad contract back if you get anything good in the package. Or you throw in Waiters or Thompson or both to sweeten the pot. And besides, with Asik traded, are there even any decent seven footers left on the market this summer?

Bottom line, Varejao is it. And Varejao is even less reliable than Bogut. And you simply can't have your tallest rotation player be 6'9 and hope to play even adequate defense in the NBA. Cleveland does not have the bodies to play good defense right now.

They're talking like Marion will sign and he and LeBron will switch between the forward spots. That'd help. But he doesn't give them a credible big man. And he isn't signed yet. And I question whether they'll actually be able to get him with only the BAE to work with. Why would he go there when he could probably start somewhere else and for more money?

My best guess this year is they run with Love and Thompson rotating at C in a bunch of super small lineups just so they can get their best line ups on the floor. They'll try and blitz teams offensively but won't be able to stop anyone with any kind of interior scoring ability. Similar issues as Miami, only they'll be worse defensively. They're going to struggle on D and drop close games where they can't get stops. Especially in the postseason.

The kinds of wildly optimistic super team predictions I've been reading about Cleveland are the sameas the ones for the Lakers two summers ago. If top of the roster talent alone = 60+ wins and a championship, then Dallas and San Antonio would not have beaten the Heat and Miami and OKC would have won 60+ every year the past four years. The foundation wasn't right with that Lakers team wasn't right either. It could come together for Cleveland and they'll have a juggernaut with another offseason or two, but it isn't going to happen this year. People are forgetting that LeBron himself said it's not going to happen right away for the Cavs in his letter.

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If I'm Cleveland, I don't go all in for this season.

I've got Love, LeBron, and Irving for about a five year window of legit contention, realistically. And they're enough for a big jump in wins this year. And that alone should be my bar for success. I don't sit Waiters and Thompson in favor of more reliable vets and I don't tell myself I have to keep someone like Varejao around to make my playoff run. My coach is on the first year of his deal, he should get plenty of time.

I play Wiggins and Thompson as much as I can so that I and the rest of the league can see what I've got in them. If they flop, I need to know it now. If they're indispensable, I need to know it before their deals expire. If they shine but I know I can move them, then I need them to showcase their talent for trade partners. Because they're my only two potential high value assets to work with.

Varejao, I deal before the deadline for the best big body on a multi-year deal I can get. If the Kings are looking to deal Jason Thompson, maybe that's the route to go down. But the choices aren't going to be much. Not without including Thompson or Waiters. The money saved from Varejao's expiring isn't useful to me because it's going to be immediately eaten up by Irving and Love, and I don't have interest in Varejao's Bird Rights. I'm not relying on him at all moving forward. I've got to get another 7 footer that can play. Basically my year is going to be about keeping my ear out for the first credible center that hits the market and trying to get a balanced team in place by the end of the next offseason.

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Wait - according to the graphic Tyson had nine points in that game.  That passes for going ham these days?

 

Yes Love is 6 8 with short arms.  He still can be an adequate defender in the right team defense, and corralling all the defensive rebounds is a large part of playing good defense.

the graphic was from halftime of that game. Chandler ended up with 15 points on 6-8 shooting. Tyson Chandler is one of the most limited scoring big men in the NBA.

THe only way Love can be adequate is with a rim protector. Of which, the Cavs do not have.

If I'm Cleveland, I don't go all in for this season.

I've got Love, LeBron, and Irving for about a five year window of legit contention, realistically.

they have no choice but to go all in. They do not have the cap space, and Lebron is on a 2 year deal.
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Just saw that the Wiggins, Love deal is 3 way between Minny, Cleveland, and Philly. Philly gets Bennett and gives up Young to Minnesota, who also get Wiggins and a draft pick from Cleveland.

Young's deal is the ballast for Love's deal. Figured something else must be coming into play because Bennett + Wiggins did not work for a straight trade for Love.

I like Bennett's fit in Philly better than Minny long term, but goddamn if Philly isn't going to be awful this year. And probably for a while. They've gotten way too young.

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they have no choice but to go all in. They do not have the cap space, and Lebron is on a 2 year deal.

Yeah, but I'm assuming LeBron will probably stay in Cleveland even if they don't even truly contend. He's talking about making an investment in the region beyond basketball. Sounds like he wants to settle there permanently.

I'm thinking he's got the Cavs on a probationary period this year. If they are just totally dysfunctional then I guess he bolts. But I don't expect that. I expect major improvement in the W/L column and playoffs with a good seed. Then he picks up his option for next year. Then he sees if they're settling into a good construction the offseason after that and signs a big old five year super max contract that's the last giant deal of his playing career and Cleveland settles into a stable long term place.

I could be wrong. But it'd be pretty shocking if LeBron ditched them again. He'd be playing with two other All Stars. Things would have to be absolutely horrible to drive him away.

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