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RG3 now #1 rated passer in the NFL


Rypien1191

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I dislike how ESPN is marketing an average based on weighted win probability as the ultimate quarterback rating. Why name it QBR instead of QBWP? Because you want to supplant traditional passer rating as the standard QB rating and foist your own proprietary rating. Not honest statistical/sabermetric work IMO.

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The thing that Irks me about Andrew Luck is what he does against the level of competition. When Luck played the Bears he loss, When Luck played the Jets he loss, When luck played NE he loss. Smh Luck is a very good QB, but I hate how they hype him and take everything away from what RGIII does. When RGIII wins all I hear is" He's doing it with his legs?" or " The guys are wide open" ? or " It's the pistol offense and RGIII is only making the 1st read" LMMFAO do they even watch our games? With Luck on the other hand you'll hear stuff like " another gw drive from Luck" WTH? When in reality the DB had a int, and took it down to the redzone and Luck got the score. Or Hilton runs a punt back for a td or somthing. Reggie Wayne has looked like one of the best Wide outs this season yet I never heard them saying anything about Luck throwing to his first read smh.. All im saying is this, Luck will lose two more games this season both will be against the Texans. Lets see that will make every loss coming from a good team ,with the exception of the Jaguars. Luck will beat the Chiefs though making them 10-6 for the year.

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I think alot of people agree that traditional QB rating isn't perfect, but the fact that ESPNs QBR is too complicated / proprietary for them to be willing to publish exactly how they calculate the stat invalidates it in my opinion....

The upside to the ESPN QBR is that it actually takes into consideration what a QB should be trying to do on every play. Unfortunately it's also based on subjectively trying to determine the QB's intention on every down so its intensive to compute and subject to viewer bias.

With all of the analytics out there, I'm surprised nobody has put together a middle-ground approach where you take the teams probability of winning before every play, and then compute how much it changed as a result of that play, and compare that to a baseline for how much that changes on average. Again this still suffers from the complexity that you can't simply compute it off a stat line.

In general, I don't think the classic QB rating is a bad thing. It's a good measure of how effective a quarterback is when throwing the ball (the four inputs are YPA, completion %, INT/attempt and TDs/attempt), but its not a good measure of how effective a QB is (i.e. an 8-yard pass on 3rd and 7 is awesome; on 3rd at 12-- not so much; likewise spiking the football is a good incompletion when the clock is running late and you need a score; if you throw into the end zone on the next play and it goes incomplete, that's not so good).

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I hate this. Not you, but when "experts" Pick luck because of that. yea he's 9-4. hes beaten TN, JAC, Miami, packers, bills? Seriously. I imagine the texans smoked them, the pats destroyed them. Who has he played? Meanwhile RG3 has played better teams, and has done well in those games.

I realize you were making a joke, and again, nothing on you. It's just some people use that as a serious reason.

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ROTY is a consolation prize. I guarantee RG3 doesn't care about it (except as far as it's a by-product of helping his team the best he can).

I get the feeling a lot of this is grounded in pent-up anger at the media for various slights (real or perceived) over the years. Had a lot of people on this board arguing about whether or not DGreen would (not should. would) make it as a first ballot HOF when it was obvious he would, but people believed the media would find a way to disrespect the Skins. I don't think that's what's actually happening here.

As Gamebreaker pointed out:

You have to take into account who these people are that say this, and where their allegiances lie.

The people who say Luck is having a better year (actually, pretty much all of the people talking about this at all) are, for the most part, media whores. 3 or 4 people at a roundtable all saying "Yeah, RG3 is running away this thing" is boring tv/radio. They want ratings. Which means they have to make the consumers believe they have differing opinions. Make them believe that the race is close and could go either way, so they'll keep paying attention. There has to be disagreement and controversy. That's what is fueling this whole thing.

Just wait until the votes come in. Then vent as necessary/appropriate. Personally, I predict it won't be close.

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He was joking and making fun of all the colts fans and media that say RG3 only throws short passes lol

yeah i caught on although its sometimes hard to tell when reading. RG3 was completing passes downfield yesterday and even completed two passes of 19 and 22 yards while he was one legged in the pocket.

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Loving it. Hopefully he gets healthy, lights up the three remaining teams and ends the season above 100 for rating. That would be a rookie record, Big Ben was 98 back in '04, so we're definitely within striking distance.

And yeah, Luck is 31st in rating, and, get this, 33rd in completion %. He's behind Sanchez, Cassel, Kolb, Weedon, and a few other guys I would be embarrassed, as a QB, to be mentioned in the same breath as, let alone mentioned as being behind. Oh, and guys he is even with or beating in TD/INT ratio? Locker, Weedon, Sanchez, Tannehill, Cassel, Skelton. Yup, he's tied or beating 6 out of 36 guys.

I go after Luck a lot, and some of it might be unfair, he's doing very well for a rookie, but I keep seeing people saying Luck is some great QB who is better than RGIII, and the facts simply show that as untrue, and it bugs the heck out of me.

Alex Smith was performing very well before he was injured and benched. That's why it was such a shock that the Niners threw in so quickly with Kaepernicke.

Yup. I think Harbaugh was a little annoyed that the offense was quite as high powered though, which is why he switched.

I mean, we're running the Pistol, with zone read and zone running concepts, and are the 6th highest scoring offense in the league, and Kaepernick is from Nevada where the pistol originated. If I was Harbaugh, and saw the success we were having, and realized I had one of the original successful QBs for the pistol, I'd probably try him out too. Kaepernick got the job done, so he gets to stay.

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that is truly remarkable

how the **** do people think Luck is having a better year? Luck is #31 in QB Rating and has the most interceptions in the league. smh

Because the only statistic that matters at the end of the day is the Win/Loss column. He has led his team to a 9-4 record and unless they blow it down the stretch, the playoffs. I just looked and unless they lose out and the Bengals/Jets win out, they should make it. Going 1-2 should get them in unless the Bengals win out, then it would go to tie-breaker scenarios and Im not a fan of the Colts so Im not even gonna figure that out.

Sports analyst for every venue also stated that RGIII should have the better year only because our team was in better shape than the rebuilding Colts, which appeared to be the case. You are looking at a team that lost its first 13 games before they squeeked out two wins in a row and a season finale loss. Even with only 5 wins last season, our team was not nearly as bad as the Colts.

Then, they blew up the team. Coaching staff, GM, players, etc. making a comittment to rebuilding around Luck. Who are his weapons? Reggie Wayne is the only true superstar leftover. We stole Garcon from them, imagine him having Garcon to throw too as well. They are weak at RB and TE. His play is making other average players (at least they look average to me) better and he's making plays to win ball games. The Colts shouldnt even be where they are and you can blame it on "cream puff schedule" if y'all want to, but bottom line, the kids flat out balling. Sure they got beat bad by the Bears and Pats, but they did beat Green Bay and Minnesota (both signature wins). They weren't even supposed to be able to compete and they are winning ballgames.

With all that said, RGIII is having a flat out record breaking/awesome year and he makes our team better too. But, we dropped games we should have won to teams we should have beaten, thus the 7-6 record and on the outside looking in for the playoffs. I wanted RG3 drafted over Luck, period, and we got him and Ive never been happier. I fell in love with the kid for how mature, poised, and diciplined he was first over his obvious athletic ability. He is more exciting to watch and I think we have a bright future with him taking snaps under center. RG3 is having the better season statisically, but again, its a team sport and Luck has his team winning more games and they actually control their own destiny right now, we don't. People were actually picking us to go 8-8 or 9-7 and have a wild card shot. We are not in rebuilding mode like the Colts are. We are injury riden on defense which hurts us greatly and RGIII has to put everything on his shoulders and he is. If we had a 9-4 record right now, I dont think anyone would be saying anything about Luck having the better year.

Both QBs are awesome and class acts, cant we just enjoy watching both of them? I mean, honestly, at the end of the day how Andrew Luck performs or who loves him, etc. doesn't really matter or effect our franchise unless we are playing them, which we aren't. I think people get more hyped up than they should and feel like they have to compare both QBs against each other just because they got drafted 1 and 2 overall. Stupid if you ask me, it would be different say if Dallas, NYG, or Philly had the #1 pick and drafted Luck and we drafted RG3 at #2, cause it would be to a rival team and they actually would play each other 2 times a year. Indy means nothing to us.

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You're being undeniably dense.

For one, Smith wasn't having a poor year. Two, look at the OTHER names on the list.

All of the top QBs are there, only a few of the elite ones (mainly due to picks like Brees, or erratic play like Mannning) are in the next tier down.

It's not a BS list, it's NFL QB rating. Commonly-used. Get with the times.

BTW, is it BS that Sanchez and John Skelton are near/at the bottom?

You just mad because Luck is so low.

I'm not a Luck/Colts fan, by any means.

---------- Post added December-11th-2012 at 12:25 AM ----------

Still mad about Thanksgiving? So explain how this list is some BS?

I'm right, so you use the "Haha, we beat you" retort? And I wasn't saying it was BS because RG3 was at the top, I said that because Alex Smith is #2. No, just no..

---------- Post added December-11th-2012 at 12:29 AM ----------

It's not perfect but I'll take the top 5 guys over the bottom 5 guys, no?

Alex Smith is a bus-driver. Nothing special. You saw how the 49ers didn't even sweat benching him.

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Wins are not the only stat that matters for individual awards.... People really need to stop parroting the media. The best QB is not decided by the best record. Neither is the best RB, DB, or any other position so why the hell would the best rookie be? Because its the only way to get Luck, a turnover machine, into the conversation. I'll agree that stats alone do not dictate the best QB, but the best QB of a certain season is never the one leading the league in interceptions (and total turnovers).

Also Luck has two more wins than the RG3 and one more than Wilson. Not exactly blowing away the competition considering the cupcake schedule the colts have enjoyed. It will be interesting to see how he does against the texans next week.

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I think it calls into question the passer rating of the guy that sits in his little pope like bubble, all day to throw. call it Mark Rypien Syndrome.

You know, the old school "proper" way to be a QB.

I suspect that RG3's success had a direct hand in Harbaugh thinking his team is better off with a QB like RG3.

Excellent point...

---------- Post added December-11th-2012 at 06:05 AM ----------

Kirk Cousins had a perfect QBR in yesterdays game. :)

Nice...

---------- Post added December-11th-2012 at 06:07 AM ----------

He won't be number 1 after Brady carves up Houston's DBs tonight.

Oh yeah?

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QB rating is a worthless stat

It really isn't. No one stat tells the whole story, but if you want to complain about that just realize that everyone knows already.

---------- Post added December-11th-2012 at 06:17 AM ----------

I'd take staying on topic with RGIII rather than trolling a thread just to be unnecessarily oppositional. :)

The OP made the statement in his first post, so it kinda is on topic. That said, it's unfair to say "it's a team game and since Luck had more wins he's better" considering Luck and RGIII have no control over the defense. If you want to give the team argument, you'd have to just consider how the Redskins average 4+ more points per game over the Colts, don't they?

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Luck is an excellent QB and he seems like an all around good guy. Its not easy to root against him for those reasons. However... with all that being said, if the Colts make the playoffs, he will be annointed ROTY, regardless of his QB rating. We need to just accept that as Redskins fans and be happy the Colts didn't have the stones to pass on the guy cause otherwise Luck would be wearing burgundy and gold instead of Robert Griffin tha thurd. I would have been just as satisfied with us drafting Luck but it sure is fun having the most explosive QB in the NFL for a change. I thought we were cursed for a while there. RGIII falling in our lap, was the fresh start Redskins fans have been yearning for for years. #rotyornotweareback

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